Gta condo market bubble that didn't burst

N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited

3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2

(416) 364-4414

www.nblc.com

2010: The Bubble That Didn’t Burst. A Review of the Greater Toronto Area Condominium Apartment Market

Presentation to the Toronto Condo Network

By: N. Barry Lyon and Jasmine Cracknell

February 18th

, 2011

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F

# U

nit

s

High-Rise Marketplace Yearly New Sales and Resales

Greater Toronto Area 2002 to 2011

New Sales

Resales

Source: RealNet Canada Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board, Market Watch and NBLC

15,346

11,693

13,480

17,437 17,098

22,417

14,89115,627

20,349

16,500

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F

To

tal S

ale

s -

Un

its

New High-Rise Market

Annual Sales and 2009 Forecasts

Greater Toronto Area: 2002 to 2011

Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC

N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited

3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2

(416) 364-4414

www.nblc.com

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Hig

h-R

ise

Sit

e C

ou

nt

Un

sold

Inv

en

tory

(#

of

Un

its)

New High-Rise Market

Unsold Inventory and High-Rise Site Count

Greater Toronto Area 2005 to 2010

High Rise Inventory

High Rise Site Count

Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC

Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC

N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited

3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2

(416) 364-4414

www.nblc.com

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

Jan

-05

Ma

r-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Jul-

05

Sep

-05

No

v-0

5

Jan

-06

Ma

r-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Jul-

06

Sep

-06

No

v-0

6

Jan

-07

Ma

r-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Jul-

07

Sep

-07

No

v-0

7

Jan

-08

Ma

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Jul-

08

Sep

-08

No

v-0

8

Jan

-09

Ma

r-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Jul-

09

Sep

-09

No

v-0

9

Jan

-10

Ma

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Jul-

10

Sep

-10

No

v-1

0

To

tal

Sa

les

(# U

nit

s)

Av

era

ge

Sa

le P

rice

High-Rise Market New Sale and Resale

Monthly Sales and Average Pricing

Greater Toronto Area: 2005 to 2010

New

Resale

New Sale

Resale

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board, Market Watch, RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC

Source: Canadian Mortgage Housing Corporation, Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto Real Estate Board, RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC

Income Required to Purchase a New or Resale Condo

Greater Toronto Area: 2004-2012

N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited

3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2

(416) 364-4414

www.nblc.com

Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC

Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC

N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited

3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2

(416) 364-4414

www.nblc.com

Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC

Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC

N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited

3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2

(416) 364-4414

www.nblc.com

Downtown East Market vs. Downtown West Market

Source: NBLC and DMTI Spatial CanMaps

Source: NBLC and DMTI Spatial CanMap

N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited

3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2

(416) 364-4414

www.nblc.com

11

22

13

26

30

52

44

24 23

13

38

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60S

tore

ys

East Toronto vs West Toronto New High-Rise

Average Building Heights

Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC

Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC

N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited

3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2

(416) 364-4414

www.nblc.com

The High-Rise Marketplace: What’s Ahead?

Daniels Corporation 4-Storey Wood-frame: (Winston Churchill Boulevard and Eglinton Avenue)

N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited

3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2

(416) 364-4414

www.nblc.com

A New Regent Park – Including Aquatic Centre

N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited

3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2

(416) 364-4414

www.nblc.com

Pan Am Athlete’s Village – 2,100 units, West Don Lands, Spring 2015

Toronto Transit City – Do or Die?

N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited

3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2

(416) 364-4414

www.nblc.com

A New Union Station to Double Current Capacity

Now

Coming

N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited

3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2

(416) 364-4414

www.nblc.com

Sugar Beach, East Bayfront

Sherbourne Common