A Systemic Approach to Assess Energy Technology Innovation Arnulf Grubler Session 3315 Energy Innovation for Climate Change, J. Skea Chair July 10, 2015
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A Systemic Approach
to Assess Energy
Technology Innovation
Arnulf Grubler
Session 3315 Energy Innovation for
Climate Change, J. Skea Chair
July 10, 2015
Why A Systemic Perspective?
Complex systems, characterized by
inderdependencies & feedbacks:
● Energy (demand – supply)
● Mitigation (energy – non-energy)
● Innovation (processes, stages, feedbacks)
● Technological change (generation – use)
ETIS – Energy Technology Innovation System
Innovation
- stages
- processes
- feedbacks
AC
TO
RS
& IN
ST
ITU
TIO
NS
TE
CH
NO
LO
GY
CH
AR
AC
TE
RIS
TIC
SKNOWLEDGE
RESOURCES
learninggeneration
share
d
expecta
tions
entr
epre
neurs
/ r
isk
takin
g cost
resource
inputs
public policy &
leverage
perfo
rmance
ETIS – Energy Technology Innovation System
Innovation
- stages
-processes
- feedbacks
AC
TO
RS
& IN
ST
ITU
TIO
NS
TE
CH
NO
LO
GY
CH
AR
AC
TE
RIS
TIC
SKNOWLEDGE
RESOURCES
learninggeneration
share
d
expecta
tions
entr
epre
neurs
/ r
isk
takin
g cost
resource
inputs
public policy &
leverage
perfo
rmance
ETIS – Energy Technology Innovation System
Innovation
- stages
-processes
- feedbacks
KnowledgeImpact of R&D Expenditure Dis-/Continuity
on Knowledge Stock Depreciation/Growth,
Nuclear vs. Efficiency (IEA countries)
1975 19951990 2000 20051980 1985
iea nuclear R&D and knowledge stock 1974-2007 (billion US$2005)
0
3
6
9
12
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
R&
D e
xp
en
dit
ure
s b
illio
n U
S$2005
1
10
100
1000
R&D
relacement level R&D 20%dr
KS0%DR
KS10%DR
KS20%DR
KS40%DR
2000 20051975 199519901980 1985
iea efficiency R&D and knowledge stock (billion US$2005)
0
3
6
9
12
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
R&
D e
xp
en
dit
ure
s b
illio
n U
S$2005
1
10
100
1000
R&D
relacement level R&D 20%dr
KS0%DR
KS10%DR
KS20%DR
KS40%DR
1975 19951990 2000 20051980 1985
iea nuclear R&D and knowledge stock 1974-2007 (billion US$2005)
0
3
6
9
12
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
R&
D e
xp
en
dit
ure
s b
illio
n U
S$2005
1
10
100
1000
R&D
relacement level R&D 20%dr
KS0%DR
KS10%DR
KS20%DR
KS40%DR
1975 19951990 2000 20051980 1985
iea nuclear R&D and knowledge stock 1974-2007 (billion US$2005)
0
3
6
9
12
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
R&
D e
xp
en
dit
ure
s b
illio
n U
S$2005
1
10
100
1000
R&D
relacement level R&D 20%dr
KS0%DR
KS10%DR
KS20%DR
KS40%DR
2000 20051975 199519901980 1985
iea efficiency R&D and knowledge stock (billion US$2005)
0
3
6
9
12
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
R&
D e
xp
en
dit
ure
s b
illio
n U
S$2005
1
10
100
1000
R&D
relacement level R&D 20%dr
KS0%DR
KS10%DR
KS20%DR
KS40%DR
2000 20051975 199519901980 1985
iea efficiency R&D and knowledge stock (billion US$2005)
0
3
6
9
12
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
R&
D e
xp
en
dit
ure
s b
illio
n U
S$2005
1
10
100
1000
R&D
relacement level R&D 20%dr
KS0%DR
KS10%DR
KS20%DR
KS40%DR
1975 199519901980 1985
iea efficiency R&D and knowledge stock (billion US$2005)
0
3
6
9
12
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
R&
D e
xp
en
dit
ure
s b
illio
n U
S$2005
1
10
100
1000
R&D
relacement level R&D 20%dr
KS0%DR
KS10%DR
KS20%DR
KS40%DR
Nuclear
Efficiency
Grubler & Nemet, 2014
Actors & InstitutionsInstitutional design for technology innovation (IEA)
misaligned to increasing role of BRICs,
“minimizing” global knowledge spillovers
0
5
10
15
20
25
OECD BRICs
Bill
ion
US$
2005
PP
P
Energy R&D Investments (public+private)
electricity+other
fossil fuels
nuclear
renewables
efficiency
National Energy R&D
(public+private) IEA: Implementing Agreements
(number of agreements, by category)
0 25 50 75 100 125 150
End-Use: Industry
Fussion Pow er
Cross-Cutting
End-Use: Electricity
End-Use: Transport
Fossil fuels
End-Use: Buildings
Renew ables and
Hydrogen
IEA members
IEA non-members
OECD vs BRICs
International Clean-tech collaborations
(# of IEA implementation agreements)
GEA Chapter 24, 2012
ResourcesAnnual Technology Investments (billion US$2005)
- end-use: market dominance, but innovation step-child
- public policy reach is vast
Total 50 150 1000–5000 - ?
Public leverage
End-use<100%
16%
95%
3%
10 - 50%
30 - 70%
?
?
GEA Chapter 24, 2012
ResourcesPublic Policy-leveraged Annual Investments (109US$)
- marginalization of end-use/efficiency
- dominance of subsidies to incumbent (fossil fuels)
Wilson et al., Nature CC 2012
Technology Performance & Costs- wide differences, incl. negative learning
Grubler & Wilson, 2014
Technology Performance & Costs- wide differences, incl. negative learning
interpretation: negative economies of scale,
higher learning with “granularity”
A
B
C
D
E
F
GH
IJ
KL
M
N
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
1011
12
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
1.E+00 1.E+03 1.E+06 1.E+09 1.E+12 1.E+15 1.E+18
Lear
nin
g ra
te (
% c
ost
ch
ange
pe
r d
ou
blin
g)
Cumulative # of units produced
Mean of “granular”
end use technologies:
LR=20%
CumProd= 109
Mean of “lumpy”
supply technologies:
LR=<10%
CumProd= 104
Wilson et al., Nature CC 2012
Conclusions
• Value of systems perspective
• Requires multiple disciplines
• Challenge: “translation” into
world of models and policy making
Special thanks to:
GEA Chapter 24 writing team
Grubler, A., Aguayo, F., Gallagher, K., Hekkert, M., Jiang, K., Mytelka, L., Neij, L., Nemet, G. and Wilson, C., 2012,
Policies for the Energy Technology Innovation System (ETIS), Chapter 24, in Global Energy Assessment – Toward
a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA.
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