Growth or Stagnation? - Opportunities & Challenges in Display Industry Jongchan Yoo Vice President Displaybank Co. Ltd., [email protected] URL : www.displaybank.com All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank
Growth or Stagnation?- Opportunities & Challenges in Display Industry
Jongchan YooVice President
Displaybank Co. Ltd.,[email protected]
URL : www.displaybank.com
All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank
Opportunities & Challenges
FPTVLCD Monitor
Emerging MarketDigital BroadcastingMini Note
LED LCD TV3D TVSmart Phone
e-ReaderAMOLEDSmart TVFlexible
Oversupply
Component Shortage
Economic Crisis
Display Industry
CH
ALL
ENG
ESO
PP
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TUN
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2All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank
Opportunities & Challenges
Contents Opportunities & Challenges in Display Industry
Challenges
• External Impact : Undermined Economy
• Unbalance of Supply & Demand
• Over-Investment of TFT LCD
• Shortage in Key Component
Opportunities
• Strong Demand for LED LCD TV
• 3D, New Criterion of Display
• Various Personal Mobile Application
• AMOLED, as post-TFT LCD?
All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank
Challenges
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•• External Impact : Undermined EconomyExternal Impact : Undermined Economy
•• Unbalance of Supply & Demand Unbalance of Supply & Demand
•• OverOver--Investment of TFT LCD Investment of TFT LCD
•• Shortage in Key ComponentShortage in Key Component
Challenges
External Impact : Undermined Economy
(Source : KEB, Sep 2010)
Undermined Economy
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KRW/US$ Trend
(Source : UPI, 9th Sep 2010, quotation from StrategyOne survey)
A survey taken in the last week of August by the polling firm StrategyOne suggests that fence sitting by home buyers will dramatically increase in the fourth quarter. Some 87 percent of consumers say they do not plan to make a big-ticket purchase (such as a house or car) in the next 3 to 4 months. Nearly half, 49 percent, say they have already delayed making a big-ticket purchase during the past few months. Only 13 percent said they plan to make a big purchase during the balance of the year.
As they brace for a second downturn, Americans are cutting their spending and preparing for an extended financial siege. Just 5 percent think there will be a full economic recovery by the end of this year, and only another 21 percent see recovery taking place by the end of 2011. Half of all Americans polled (50 percent) see a recovery not coming until sometime after the end of 2011, and about a quarter (23 percent) doubt our economy will ever fully recover.
Almost two in three Americans (65 percent) say a double-dip recession -- defined as a recession followed by a short-lived recovery, followed by another recession -- is now likely to happen. Among those who expect a double-dip recession, nearly half (44 percent) fear it will be worse than the first one, with 21 percent worried it will be "much more severe." Just 24 percent think the second recession will be less severe.
As far as their personal finances, only one of four Americans expects to recover by the end of the year. Nearly half, 46 percent, don't expect to recover until the end of 2011 or later; 26 percent say they will never recover financially.
"The American public -- characteristically optimistic and resilient -- is looking around and seeing more and more dark storm clouds approaching on the horizon," said Bradley Honan, senior vice president of StrategyOne. "Not only has confidence in the economy been severely undermined, there are now real, significant doubts emerging about our country."
LCD Panel Over Supply
Over SupplyOver Supply
Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11 Q1'12 Q1'13 Q1'14
Demand Supply Glut
Over Supply
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Worldwide TFT LCD Panel Demand & Supply
(Source : ‘Large Area TFT-LCD Panel Supply & Demand Analysis’, Displaybank, Jun. 2010)
0 ~ 8%0 ~ 8%Balance Balance
‘Glut’ effected to Price and Profit
Q1'04 Q1'05 Q1'06 Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10
Panel Price (US$) Glut Ratio(%)
OPM(%)
* OPM (Operating Profit Margin) : Sum of SEC, LGD, AUO, CMO and Sharp
Over Supply
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(Source : ‘Large Area TFT-LCD Panel Supply & Demand Analysis’, Displaybank, Jun. 2010)
Over Investment to China
China
2010 2011 2012 2013
SEC - Gen7.5 (100K)
LGD - Gen8 (120K)
IPS - Gen8 (45K)
CMI - Gen8 (30K)
SEC- Gen8 (70+30K)
LGD- Gen8 (60+30K)
AUO- Gen8 (50+30K)
Korea
Taiwan
JapanBOE- Gen6 (90K)
BOE- Gen8 (90K)
CEC- Gen6 (60+20K)
LongFei- Gen8 (90K)
TCL - Gen8 (60K)
CEC - Gen8 (90K)
AUO - Gen7.5 (90K)
CMI - Gen8 (60K)
LGD - Gen8 (60+60K)
BOE - Gen8 (60K)
Operating or under construction
Decided the construction
Under discussion (Not fixed)
Supply Capacity Trend
Over Investment
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Key Component Shortage
LED BLU(LGP, LED Chip, Reflector...), Driver IC, Glass, POL... Factor
– Fast Demand Growth Lead to Shortages on Raw Material and Production Capacity
– Small-scale Productions on Various Products (Diversified Specs -Frame rate, BLU)
– Due to Worsened Cost Competition, Avoids Supply
LED 120HzLED 120Hz
FHD LED 60HzFHD LED 60Hz
3D 240Hz3D 240Hz
HD CCFL 60HzHD CCFL 60Hz
CCFL 120HzCCFL 120Hz
CCFL 3D 120HzCCFL 3D 120HzHD
Diversified Product LineupDiversified Product Lineup
Component Shortage
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HD
HDFHD
BLU Key Components Supply Chain
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CCFL(Ass’y)
BLU Components Supply Chain
TFT-LCD Module
LED ModuleLED PKGLED Chip
BLU Maker LCM
Structures(Chassis, Mold Frame, etc)
Electric Components(Inverter, Driver, etc)
Light Source
Optical Component
Film LGP Diffusion Plate
Back Coating/Cutting Cutting/Polishing/Patterning Cutting
Others(Tape, etc)
New Components for Edge Type LED LCD TV
Component Shortage
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(Source : ‘Light Guide Plate (LGP) for LED LCD TV 2010 ‘, Displaybank, Q1’10)
LGP Shortage Situation
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LGP Manufacturing Process & Shortage
ExtrusionSheet
(CastingSheet)
PMMAMMAPatterning(Printing/
Laser)
Cutting/Polishing BLU Maker
Raw material stage Process stage
Serious Shortage
Shortage
Large size Companies Specialized to Chemical Area Small/Medium size Companies Specialized to Process Area
Shortage and takes rather longerto ease the situation
(Big investment amount and longer time to secure capacity)
Shortage and takes rather shorter to ease situation
(Rather smaller investment amount and rather shorter time to secure capacity)
(Source : ‘Light Guide Plate (LGP) for LED LCD TV 2010 ‘, Displaybank, Q1’10)
Component Shortage
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LED Weather Forecast by Segment
LED Weather Forecast by Segment
Ingot
Wafer/Chip
Package
Application
Short-termBalance
Long-term Balance Price Trend Remarks
Shortage
Balance~oversupply
Balance~oversupply
On a rise
On a rise
Balance On a fall
Ingot makers increasing capacity but takes time to catch up rising demand
Despite no problem with the capacity, there is a shortage of ingot
Wafer and chip makers increasing capacityby adding rapid MOCVD reinforcement
Not enough growth engine except for large-size BLU
Lighting market’s growth is not fast enough
Serious
Not good situation
OK
Good situation
Component Shortage
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(Source: ‘LED Package Market & Industry Outlook’ Displaybank, Q2’10)
Shortage
Shortage Shortage
Balance
Balance
Balance
Substrate
On a fall
On a fall
WW LED Packaging Demand Forecast
Worldwide LED Packaging Demand, (Bil.Units)
Component Shortage
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(Source: ‘LED Package Market & Industry Outlook’ Displaybank, Q2’10)
Opportunities
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Strong Demand for LED LCD TVStrong Demand for LED LCD TV
3D, New Criterion of Display3D, New Criterion of Display
Various Personal Mobile ApplicationVarious Personal Mobile Application
AMOLED , as postAMOLED , as post--TFT LCD?TFT LCD?
Opportunities
TV Mega Trend Transition
Flat Panel Display Larger Size
Full HD Resolution
Frame Rate Frame Rate 120Hz/240Hz120Hz/240Hz
Ultra SlimLED BLU
3D TV3D TV
Improve Response Time
Better Picture Quality ,Slim Design
Save Energy (Green)
Smart TVNetwork
Connected TV
New Experience
Better Picture Quality
(Source: ‘3D TV Industry Analysis and Market Forecast’, Displaybank, Q2’10)
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LED & 3D TV
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WW TV Market Forecasts
166 176 184 192 197 201 207 227 242 255 267 277 Mil.Units
(Source: ‘Worldwide TV Shipment and Forecast’, Displaybank, Q3'10 / ‘World Economic Outlook’, IMF, Jul. 2010)
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LED & 3D TV
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Worldwide TV Market & GDP Forecast
Major TV Makers’ Business Plan in 2010
TV Business Plan by Major Brand
2009 2010 (Business Plan)
LCD TV LCD TV LED LCD TV 3D TV LED LCD TV (%, in Max Case)
Samsung 26.8 38 13 2.3
LG 16.3 28 6~7 1.0
Sony 15.1 23 6 2.3
Sharp 9.8 12 6 0.3
Philips 7.2 10 4~5 0.1~0.2
Toshiba 8.5 12 3~4 0.3
Panasonic 6.3 10 2~3 0.0
Vizio 5.9 8 3~4 0.5
Total 95.9 147 44~49 6.9
(Mil.Units)
2009 2010 (Business Plan)
Plasma TV Plasma TV 3D TV 3D Plasma TV (%, in Max Case)
Panasonic 5.7 7.5 1.2
Samsung 3.5 4.4 0.3
LGE 3.1 4.0 0.1
15.6%
6.8%
2.5%
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LED & 3D TV
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(Source: ‘LED LCD TV Makers Roadmap & Market Forecast’, Displaybank, Q2'10)
34%
23%
26%
50%
45%
29%
25%
44%
31%
““Magic PriceMagic Price””$1,000 ~ $1,500$1,000 ~ $1,500
TV Retail Price forecast (CCFL vs. LED)
x2.0
x1.8
x1.6x1.5
x1.340”FHD CCFL TV (60Hz)
40”FHD LED TV (120Hz)
(US$)
(Source: ‘FPD TV Cost Analysis & Forecast Report - LCD Module & TV’, Displaybank, Q1’10)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2009 2010 2011 2012
40” FHD LED TV (120Hz) VS CCFL TV (60Hz) Price Forecast
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LED LCD TV
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LED LCD TV Market Forecast
LED LCD TV Market (Mil.Units) LED LCD TV Market (Bil.US$)
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LED LCD TV
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(Source: ‘Worldwide TV Shipment and Forecast’, Displaybank, Q3'10)
3
31
85
130
169
209
2%
40%
80%
68%56%
17%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CCFL LCD TV
LED LCD TV
LED (%)
7
34
74
101
113
120
7%
50%
28%
63%
74%
84%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CCFL LCD TV
LED LCD TV
LED (%)
3D TV Manufacturing Cost Comparison
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2D TV vs. 3D TV Cost Comparison – 46” & 55”
Product 46" LED LCD TV (Edge)
55" LED LCD TV (Edge)
Frame rate 120Hz 240Hz 120Hz 240Hz
2D TV 3D TV 2D TV 3D TV
LCD Module $645.0 $730.0 $895.0 $990.0
Tuner (Combo) $5.1 $5.1 $5.1 $5.1
Video Processor $19.5 $22.0 $19.5 $22.0
Audio Processor $6.5 $6.5 $8.1 $8.1
Other Circuit $81.8 $83.8 $110.4 $112.4
Circuit sum $112.8 $117.3 $143.1 $147.6
Mechanical sum $73.2 $80.5 $124.3 $134.4
etc. (CKD Pack+Tax+Freight+Loss+H/C) $117.9 $126.1 $144.6 $153.0
Material cost $948.8 $1,053.9 $1,306.9 $1,425.0
Manufacturing O/H $195.0 $231.0 $233.0 $272.0
Total Manufacturing Cost $1,143.8 $1,284.9 $1,539.9 $1,697.0
Additional Cost $141.1 $157.1
Retail Price $1,529.9 $2,599.9 $2,499.9 $3,499.9
46” LED LCD120Hz
46” LED LCD240Hz
Panel 100 113
TV Cost 100 112
Set 100 170
240Hz & 3D Premium Comparison
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3D TV
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(Source: ‘FPD TV Cost Analysis & Forecast Report - LCD Module & TV’, Displaybank, Q1’10)
3D TV Market Forecast
3D TV Market (Mil.Units) 3D TV Market (Bil.US$)
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3D TV
All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank
(Source: ‘3D TV Industry Analysis and Market Forecast’, Displaybank, Q3'10)
06
16
33
59
84
0%
7%3%
13%
23%
31%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2D TV
3D TV
3D (%)
0
12
28
47
67
77
54%
43%
28%
9%
17%
0%2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2D TV
3D TV
3D (%)
Personal Mobile Application
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Mobile Appl.
All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank 22All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank
Smart Phone
Kindle2
Mobile Phone
DSC, MP3, PMP, Car Navi ...
+ Design(Fold, Slide, Slim...)
Touch
e-Reader
Sony Reader Kindle
i-PAD
+Function(Camera, MP3, DMB ...)
E-Reader Market (Munits)Smartphone Market (Munits)
(Source: Company Data, Displaybank Estimated, Q1’10)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Smart Phone Market (Mil.Units) e-Reader Market (Mil.Units)
Full Touch Phone: Resistive to Capacitive
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Samsung Omnia
LG MaxxSamsung Galaxy
Apple iPhone
HTC Desire
LG Cookie
Motorola MotoroiGoogle Nexus One
Samsung Haptic
LG New Chocolate Samsung Blue Earth
Motorola ROKR
Resistive Capacitive
LG Crystal
(Source: ‘Touchscreen Panel Market & Issue Analysis’, Displaybank, Q1’10)
TSP Market Forecast by Technology
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Mobile Appl.
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(Mil.Units)
Why Capacitive? Pros and Cons
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Resistive (Analog) Capacitive (Projected)
Input Method Anything can push Finger Only
YesNoMulti-touch
Slim & Light Poor Excellent
Poor Excellent
Very Good
Life Span
FairTransmittance
No Yes
High
Stable Calibration
LowCost
Characteristics Comparison: Resistive Touch vs. Projected Capacitive Touch
Capacitive:“Soft & Multi”
Structure Comparison: Resistive Touch vs. Projected Capacitive Touch
Capacitive:“Need More infra and time for technology mature
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Mobile Appl.
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(Source: ‘Touchscreen Panel Market & Issue Analysis’, Displaybank, Q1’10)
AMOLED Investment Trend
(Source : AUO)
(Source : LGE)
(Source : SMD)
S/M AMOLED Shipment
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AMOLED
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(Source : ‘AMOLED Investment Trend & Technical Issue’, Displaybank, Q1’10)
SMD- World Best AMOLED Panel Supplier- 2.1 Bil.US$ for 5.5G- 70K Substrates per month from Jul.’11
LGD- 2H’10 : 4G with monthly CAPA of 4K sheet- 2H ’11 : 250 Bil.Won to triple the capacity- Acquires IPs and Business of Eastman Kodak- AMOLED TV Launch : 15”(2009) 30”(2011)
AUO- 3.5G LTPS Q3’10.- Acquire TMD Subsidiary, AFPD Secure 4.5G LTPS Line with
45K/Month Capacity- Consider 5.5G plant Construction
Panasonic- Through its subsidiary, IPS-α, Consider Investing
on 4~5G AMOLED Fab.
Sony- Under Large-size AMOLED TV, high possibility of investment to
large-area Fab. over 3~4G
(Mil.Units)
AMOLED Issues
Applications
• OLED Light
• 3D OLED TV
• Transparent OLED
• Flexible OLED
S/M AMOLED
(Source : Samsung)
(Source : Samsung)
(Source : Sony, UDC)
LargeAMOLED
Future AMOLED
Technical Issues for AMOLED
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AMOLED
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Present Issues
• Secure AMOLED Application Area
(Smart Phone, NB PC, Tablet PC, etc.)
• Stabilized Panel Supply
• Secure Competing Edge Against LCD
Size Enlarging Issues
• Improved Production Efficiency
• Secure Price Competitiveness
• Stabilized TFT Uniformity
• Secure large-area plating process
• Improved Life-time
• Secure Encapsulation Technology
AMOLED Market Forecasts
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AMOLED Shipment by Application AMOLED Revenue by Application
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AMOLED
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(Source : ‘AMOLED Investment Trend & Technical Issue’, Displaybank, Q1’10)
(Mil.Units) (Mil. US$)
Summary
2828All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank
• As challenges of current display industry, Displaybank points out undermined
economy, unbalance of TFT LCD Panel supply & demand, over-
investment of TFT LCD, and shortages in Key Components.
• As opportunities of current display industry, Displaybank points out strong
demand for LED LCD TV, 3D display, various personal mobile
applications, and AMOLED.
• These opportunities enable constant growth of display industry despite the
challenges like financial crisis. For example, the shipment of 2009 worldwide TV
market rose 3.1% on year and is expected to rise 9.4%(YoY) in 2010.
• Display industry expected to make constant growth in the middle of IT
convergence. And display industry needs to focus on developing next
generation device as post-TFT LCD.
29
Thank you!
All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank
Jongchan YooVice President
Displaybank Co. Ltd.,[email protected]
URL : www.displaybank.com