Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry The World Bank Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin Nikolai Dobrott, Managing Partner May 7, 2010
Feb 23, 2016
Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry
The World Bank Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin
Nikolai Dobrott, Managing Partner
May 7, 2010
2
Between 2010 and 2030 global primary energy demand is projected to grow by 34%.Projected Primary Energy Demand [Mtoe]
1980 2000 2007 2015 20300
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Latin AmericaAfricaPacificMiddle EastEastern EuropeEuropeNorth AmericaAsia
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009.
2010
3
Globally renewable energy deployment has grown significantly.World renewable net electricity generating capacity development [GW]
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 20070
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Wave and TidalSolar thermalGeothermalSolar PVBiomassWind
Source: IEA Renewables information 2009.
4
Promoting clean technologies represents a highly attractive opportunity to meet future energy challenges.Advantages of clean technologies
• Less dependency on fossil fuels and prices
• Energy security through diversified energy mix
• Decentralized energy supply and cost-effective opportunities for rural electrification
• Highly reduced CO2 emissions and opportunity for CDM projects
• Creating a local growth industry
• Qualified jobs
Global renewable energy market size in 2008 and 2018e [billion USD]
Biofuels Wind Solar PV Total
34.851.4
29.6
115.9105.4
139.1
80.6
325.12008 2018
Source: Clean Edge 2009
5
Within ten years installed renewable capacities in Germany have almost quadrupled. Cumulative installed capacities [GW]
Source: BMU 2010
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Geothermal
Biomass
Solar PV
Wind
6
Renewable energies have become a significant industry in Germany.Renewable energies in numbers (2009)
• 16.1% of electricity consumption
• 8.4% of heat production
• EUR 17.7 bn investment in new installations (+19.4%)
• EUR 33.4 bn in revenues (+8.9%)
• 292,900 jobs in total
Source: BMU 20102004 2006 2007 2008 2009
65,000 74,500 83,000 85,100 87,100
56,800
95,400 96,100 99,100 105,70027,000
48,50055,500 57,000
64,600
14,700
17,90018,200
33,60035,500
Wind Biomass Solar Other
163,500
236,300252,800
274,800292,900
Job development in the renewable energy sector 2004–2009
The eastern German ‘Solar Valley’ – an example for successful cluster development.• Area: 108,585 km²
• Inhabitants: ~16 million (1/5 of Germany’s total; incl. 3.5 million in Berlin)
• Eastern Germany features the world’s largest PV industry cluster:
- Wafer-based technology: 28 companies with a production capacity of more than 3,7 GW
- Thin-film technology: 26 companies- Equipment suppliers: 13 large companies- Research: several world-class institutes - Education: several universities and colleges with
solar-specific courses- Approx. 15,000 direct employees
7
Source: Germany Trade & Invest 2009.
Equipment for thin-film, automationlaser processing
Leipzig
Frankfurt
Munich
Hamburg
Germany
Leipzig
Berlin
Stuttgart
Düsseldorf
Frankfurt
PV companiesEquipment manufacturers
Research institutions
Solar Valley
Dresden
8
'97 '98'99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '90
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
By implementing effective policy measures, Germany has taken the lead in solar energy within a few years. Annually installed PV capacities [MWp] PV industry turnover development [m EUR]
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
500
1,700
2,800
4,500
6,100
9,5009,000
100,000 roofs program
Renewed feed-in tariff law
Feed-in tariff law
Renewed feed-in tariff law
Source: BMU 2010.
9
Best practice example for short term policy measures: 100,000 roof program in Germany.Key data of the program
Duration: 5 years (Jan. 1999 – Dec. 2003)
Effects:
• Generated 345 MW of installed capacity, almost 100% of total PV growth during this period
• 73,787 loans supported
• Total loan volume: EUR 1.6 bn.
Costs: ca. EUR 250 million
Policy design:
• Long maturity loans with low interest rates: 1.9% p.a. undertaken by state-owned KfW bank
Further policy measures during program:
• Renewable Energy Sources Act (2001)
Annually installed PV capacities [MWp]
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Source: Apricum Research 2010
100,000 roofs program
10
Reliable government support leads to high installed capacities and the development of local manufacturing.
PV cell production world market share 2009
Installed capacity 2009
Germany
SpainJapan
USA
South Korea
Italy
ChinaFrance
Source: Apricum Research 2010
Best practice
Major drivers for cluster development are dependent on political will and commitment.
11
Strong domestic market
Investment incentives
Industrial fit
Favorable infrastruc-ture
Cost advantages
Research institutions and
universities
Public awareness and
support
Investment promo-tion
Cluster Drivers
12
Apricum proposes a three-way approach to develop a self-sustaining Cleantech cluster.
Self-sustaining Cleantech cluster
Local manufacturing
• Developing targeted manufacturing incentives in identified key solar applications.
Domestic demand R&D
• Extension of market incentive schemes (e.g. FIT), specifically targeting identified key solar applications.
• Enabling targeted incentives for key innovations
• Promoting Cleantech and solar energy R&D
• Exploiting the full potential of the pool of well-educated and versatile workforce.
Apricum has the experience and strength to support your location in cluster development.
• Global Cleantech industry and market expertise competency
• experience in economic development:
• Thorough understanding of industry requirements for market entry, location analysis and site selection
• Excellent connection to industry players worldwide
• Experts in investment promotion and cluster development including market and manufacturing incentive schemes
• Consultancy project record for states and regions in Germany, USA and Middle East
• International team of experienced consultants
• Country representative in emerging markets
13
14
Client
Project summary
Saudi Arabian governmental institution and KAUST – King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Steps taken by Apricum
Development of a national solar strategy
Location benchmarking vs. leading sites around the world for all segments of the value chain
Global R&D best-practice analysis
Development of solar investment promotion strategy
Solar investor attraction and targeting
ResultIdentification of high-potential solar R&D fields
Full roadmap for the development of a solar industry
SERVICES
Institutional/governmental advisory– selected references.
15
Client
Portland Metropolitan Area, USA
Project summary
Third-largest city in the Pacific Northwest Region of the U.S.; plans to become number-one U.S. solar and important Cleantech manufacturing site
Steps taken by Apricum
Cleantech positioning and investment attraction strategy
Evaluate site attractiveness based on Cleantech manufacturer’s decision model
Benchmark Portland sites in relation to alternative sites worldwide
Identify relevant site parameters that can be influenced on a local basis
Segment potential investors and set up meetings with selected companies
ResultInterview potential investors for evaluation of Portland’s site attractiveness
Developed investor targeting strategy including measures to increase site attractiveness
SERVICES
Institutional/governmental advisory– selected references.
16
SERVICES
Institutional/governmental advisory– selected references. Client
Project summaryEconomic development agency of the German Federal State of Saxony
Steps taken by Apricum
Develop investor attraction strategy for selected Cleantech industry segments
Analyze market potential of selected Cleantech segments
Evaluate attractiveness of Saxony as investment location, benchmark against worldwide investment locations
Derive target segments, i.e., most attractive Cleantech segments for investment attraction
Develop investment attraction strategy and derive USP
ResultIdentify potential investors in target segments and profile identified potential investors
Investment attraction strategy completed within eight weeks; prepared client to approach investors in subsequent phase, assisted by Apricum
Apricum GmbHNeue Grünstr. 17 | 10179 Berlin | Germany
T. +49.30.308 77 62 - 0 | F. +49.30.308 77 62 - [email protected]
www.apricum-group.com
Back-up.
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Renewable industries turnover in Germany (2009).
Solar PV9 million
Biomass11.4 million
WindEUR 5.6 million
Solar thermalEUR 4.9 million
WaterEUR 1.4 million
TotalEUR 33.37 million
Source: BMU 2010.
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Country
Main market support scheme Cumulative PV capacity (2009)
World market share PV cell production (2009)
Germany Uncapped FIT (since 1991)
9,100 MW 15.0%
Spain Capped FIT (since 2008)
3,500 MW 1.0 %
Japan FIT (since 2008)
2,640 MW 12.6 %
USA Tax credits, RPS (since 2006) 1,380 MW 4.4 %
South Korea Capped FIT (uncapped until 2008) 453 MW 1.9 %
Italy Capped FIT (since 2005) 900 MW 0.7 %
China Capped regional tendering processes (since 2010)
200 MW 38.0 %
France FIT (since 2009) 285 MW 0.4 %
Capacities vs. cell production share 2009.