Growth in Cecil County Population Migration, Commuters, Jobs Land Use, Planned Growth, & Sprawl Base Realignment, APG Prognosis & Priorities.

Growth in Cecil County• Population

• Migration, Commuters, Jobs

• Land Use, Planned Growth, & Sprawl

• Base Realignment, APG

• Prognosis & Priorities

Population & Change

Cecil County

Total Population in Cecil County, Actual and Projected

53,291

85,951

160,000

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Almost doubles

Population Increases, Cecil County, Actual & Projected, by Decade

7,139

10,917

14,604

23,19925,400 25,450

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

Population Change in Cecil County by Major Age Groups, 2000-2010

5,411

14,906

2,889

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

0-19 20-64 65+

64%23%12%

Population Change in Cecil County by Major Age Groups, 2010-2020

5,720

13,903

5,765

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

0-19 20-64 65+

54%23% 23%

Population Change in Cecil County by Major Age Groups, 2020-2030

6,811

11,654

6,991

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

0-19 20-64 65+

45%

27% 27%

Annual Rate of Population Change in Cecil County, Actual & Projected, by Decade

3.12%

2.47% 2.36%2.64%

2.42%

1.85%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

Annual Rate of Total Population Change in Remainder of Maryland, Actual & Projected

2.19%

1.81%

1.24% 1.24%0.89%

0.68%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

Migration, Commuters,

& Jobs

Cecil County

Migration to Cecil County

7,841 7,6197,245

1,790

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1991-1999 2000-2004, US 2000-2004, MD 2000-2003 FromHarford County

>1/2 Pop’nIncrease, ’90s

Net Commutation for Cecil County(In commuters minus out commuters)

-3,255

-7,354

-12,389

-15,871-17,757

-19,316

-22,029

-25,716

-29,661

-34,851

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

Net Out Commutation increases by nearly 19,000

between 2000 and 2030

Annual Rate of Total Job Change in Cecil County, Actual & Projected

-0.91%

3.15%

2.06%

3.36%

1.71%

0.61%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

Land Use,Planned Growth, &

Sprawl

Cecil County

Growth in Cecil County

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180% Increase1973 to 2002

Population

DevelopmentDevelopment

Population

Est. Increase2002 to 2030

61%

77%

127% 159%

Residential Single Family SalesAbove $300,000 (Median) 2002

By Census Tract

Residential Single Family SalesAbove $300,000 (Median) 2005

By Census Tract

Base Re-alignment: APGGivens• Transferred military jobs: 4,700• Additional contractual jobs: 2 to 3 times• Estimate: total of 10,000 to 12,000Questions• In-commuters?• Workweek residents?• Market preferences: Cecil / PFAs / NAR /

SAR?• Water/sewer, growth plans, ordinances

Prognosis

• Fast growth 2000 – 2030

• Heavy in-migration + aging population

• More out-commuters

• Richer market for development products

• More loss of land than population increase

• Major threat to high quality environment

Priorities• Its all about the market

• Plans/programs for water / sewer, Smart Growth

• Development incentives for diverse, high quality communities in planned areas

• Subdivision and development restrictions & more preservation outside Priority Funding Areas