Growth in a Changing Economy · Agencies, rokerages, and Other Insurance Related… Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services Management, Scientific, and Technical onsulting…

Growth in a Changing Economy

Jan. 9, 2017

3 Key Economic Trends/Myths

• Shift from making stuff to coming up with ideas

•What is a strong economy?

• The rise of the “winner take all” economy

U.S. Employment Share by Sector

Production, 39.5%

Trade, 26.1%

Services, 34.4%

1960

Production, 16.1%

Trade, 19.4%

Services, 64.5%

2015

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's 2010's

U.S. GDP growth rates have slowed.

Annual Growth Rate 10 Year Moving Avg.

Employment and GDP are no longer attached.

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Gro

wth

Ind

ex (

20

00

=10

0

GDP and Employment Growth Trends

Employment GDP

The Rise of the “Winner Take All” Economy – Traditional Economy

The Rise of the “Winner Take All” Economy – Digital Economy

So, where does Kansas City fit in?

Kansas City Economy

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Kansas City MSA Employment 2016

840

7,077

7,191

17,549

20,176

21,748

31,985

47,654

47,696

48,346

54,239

54,640

58,918

71,897

76,123

76,340

89,401

90,043

113,930

147,895

- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

Utilities

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Information

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Public Administration

Wholesale Trade

Other Services (except Public Administration)

Transportation and Warehousing

Construction

Finance and Insurance

Administrative and Support

Educational Services

Manufacturing

Accommodation and Food Services

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Retail Trade

Health Care and Social Assistance

Employment 2016

Kansas City Specializations

0.18

0.45

0.86

0.86

0.91

0.93

0.93

0.96

0.97

0.97

0.98

0.98

1.01

1.04

1.11

1.21

1.22

1.29

1.39

1.66

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8



Manufacturing



Construction


Information


Retail Trade





Wholesale Trade

Utilities





KC MSA Location Quotients

KC Economy Specializations

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Construction Manufacturing WholesaleTrade

Health Care andSocial

Assistance

Information Finance andInsurance

Transportationand

Warehousing

Prof., Scientific,and Technical

Svcs.

KC Employment by Industry2001-2015

Source: Jobs EQ

Some strengths lift, others pull down

(7,434)

(3,195)

(1,552)

(857)

(678)

86

977

1,151

1,665

2,802

2,823

3,029

3,466

3,819

8,385

15,246

(10,000) (5,000) - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Wired Telecommunications Carriers

Other Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing

Depository Credit Intermediation

Printing and Related Support Activities

Insurance Carriers

Rail Transportation

Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers

General Freight Trucking

Freight Transportation Arrangement

Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component…

Agencies, Brokerages, and Other Insurance Related…

Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services

Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting…

Motor Vehicle Manufacturing

Computer Systems Design and Related Services


Employment Change in Last 5 Years

What KC Does for the world

Population Growth

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

Ch

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Bir

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Bu

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2015 Population

Population Growth

73,768

(100,000)

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Ho

ust

on

Dal

las

New

Yo

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Los

An

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Was

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Mia

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Atl

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Ph

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San

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Ch

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San

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Okl

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ma

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Jack

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Ph

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Ind

ian

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Bal

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Ch

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Kan

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Mem

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Det

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Pro

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Numeric Population Growth 2010-15

Components of Population Change

Natural Growth, 11,071

Domestic Migration, 779

Intl. Migration, 4,280

Components of Population Change 2014-15

Net Domestic Migration 2014-15

< -9,000

-9,000 to -4,454

-4,453 to 2,429

2,430 to 24,901

> 24,901

Source: ACS 2015 1-year

43.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Las

Veg

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Mem

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Kansas City ranks towards the top in overall edcuational attainment relative to its peers.

Educational Attainment

Educational Attainment 2015Percent of Adult Population with at least and Associate’s Degree

<38.2%

38.2% to 40.5%

40.6% to 42.5%

42.6% to 46.5%

>46.5%

Brain Drain or Brain Gain?

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Kansas City Net In-FlowPopulation 25+ with at least a Bachelor's degree

Brain Drain or Brain Gain?

3,129

(6,000)

(4,000)

(2,000)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Net Inflow of the Population with at Least a Bachelor's Degree -2015

Household Income

$60,502

$-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000Sa

n J

ose

Was

hin

gto

n

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Kansas City sits towards the middle of the pack in terms of median household income

Household Income

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

$53,000

$54,000

$55,000

$56,000

$57,000

$58,000

$59,000

$60,000

$61,000

$62,000

$63,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Kansas City MSA Median Household Income

Real Median Household Income (Left Axis) Annual Rate of Change (Right Axis)

Household Income

6.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Nas

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Bir

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Atl

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Ch

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Kansas City saw one of the greatest increases in median household incomebetween 2014 and 2015.

Lee’s Summit’s Role

Lee’s Summit is a high income community.

$75,020

$48,212

$41,255

$80,242 $81,144

$42,229

$50,259

$60,502

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

Lee's Summit Jackson County Kansas City Olathe Overland Park Independence Kansas City MO Kansas City,MSA

Median Household Income 2010-15

2010 2015

Median home values have topped $200,00

$200,300

$130,800

$87,600

$207,700

$249,000

$100,200

$138,400

$164,700

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

Lee's Summit Jackson County Kansas City Olathe Overland Park Independence Kansas City Kansas City,MSA

Median Home Value 2015

Lee’s Summit has a high, and growing level of educational attainment.

47%

30%

47%

62%

19%

33%

16%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Lee's Summit Jackson County Olathe Overland Park Independence Kansas City MO Kansas City, KS KCMSA

Educational AttainmentPercent of Adult Population with at least a Bachelor's Degree

2005 2010 2015

Lee’s Summit is getting younger.

36.836.5

33.433

38.238.6

35.9

37.1

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

Lee's Summit Jackson County Kansas City, Kansas Olathe Overland Park Independence Kansas City MO KCMSA

Median Age 2010-15

2010 2015

Population growth is fairly balanced by age group.

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

U5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Lee's Summit Populationby Age Cohort

2010 2015

Employment Change by Industry (1 of 2)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Information Management ofCompanies and

Enterprises

Arts,Entertainment,and Recreation

Real Estate andRental and

Leasing

PublicAdministration

Transportationand

Warehousing

Wholesale Trade Construction Finance andInsurance

Lee's Summit Employment Change by Industry 2005-2015

Health Care leads the way in Lee’s Summit employment growth.

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Administrative andSupport Services

Manufacturing Other Services Professional,Scientific, and

Technical Services

EducationalServices

Accommodationand Food Services

Retail Trade Health Care andSocial Assistance

Lee's Summit Employment Change by Industry 2005-2015

21,351

30,284

31,993

37,420

9,983 10,018

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2005 2010 2014

Lee's Summit Commuting Trends

In Out Live and Work

Lee’s Summit Employment

Lee’s Summit Employment: Where Lee’s Summit Workers Live.

Lee’s Summit Employment: Where Lee’s Residents Workers Work.

Lee’s Summit Employment by Industry

- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000



Utilities


Information





Wholesale Trade

Construction


Manufacturing


Administrative and Support and Waste…




Retail Trade


Lee's Summit Employment by Industry

Lee’s Summit Employment Specializations

0.01

0.08

0.58

0.65

0.73

0.80

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.87

0.99

1.03

1.03

1.09

1.10

1.16

1.19

1.22

1.32

1.33

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40




Manufacturing

Information





Construction


Utilities



Wholesale Trade




Retail Trade


Lee's Summit Specialization

Lee's Summit

Lee’s Summit Employment Specialization Comparison

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80




Manufacturing

Information





Construction


Utilities



Wholesale Trade




Retail Trade


Lee's Summit Specialization

KC MSA Lee's Summit

Conclusion

• Economy is changing

• Kansas City is has a strong base, opportunity for more

• Lee’s Summit is continuing to establish itself as a growing, attractive community

• Lee’s Summit has the opportunity to transition from local economy to a traded economy.

Growth in a Changing Economy · Agencies, rokerages, and Other Insurance Related… Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services Management, Scientific, and Technical onsulting…

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