Growth Amidst Uncertainty - aummi.edu.au

MYANMARECONOMICMONITOR

MYANMAR ECONOMIC MONITOR | May 2018

May 2018

Growth AmidstUncertaintyGrowth AmidstUncertaintyExecutive Summary

Myanmar’s economy performed better in 2017/18 with a modest growth acceleration that partially reversed the deterioration experienced in 2016/17. While the outlook remains positive, risks have intensified. The economy experienced a broad-based increase in real GDP growth to 6.4 percent in 2017/181 from 5.9 percent in 2016/17. Inflation moderated from 7 percent in 2016/17 to 5.5 percent in 2017/18. The exchange rate was stable and appreciated slightly towards the end of the year, the current account deficit narrowed slightly on strong export growth, and the fiscal deficit also narrowed in the first three quarters of the fiscal year. While performance remains strong and the macroeconomic outlook is positive, there are concerns that the slow pace of reforms, vulnerabilities in the financial sector, and limited progress in addressing the humanitarian crisis in Rakhine are starting to affect business sentiment and could weaken performance. External risks from uncertainty in global trade policy and in commodity prices intensify the downside risks to the growth outlook.

The Government of Myanmar is in a position to improve Myanmar’s economic outlook. For instance, implementing the cogent new Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan (MSDP), collecting more revenue and spending it better, and providing greater policy certainty and a simpler operating environment for businesses can support investment and economic prospects, as evidenced by Special Topic analysis in this report.

Myanmar experienced a broad-based pick-up in economic growth in 2017/18. On the supply side, growth was driven by a recovery in agriculture as farmers stepped up crop production, strong industrial and especially manufacturing performance with garments continuing to excel, and strong services growth despite a slight slowdown likely due to tourism and banking sector uncertainties. Aggregate demand is estimated to have improved due to private consumption supported by disinflation in the first half of 2017/18 and a stable Kyat, private investment especially in manufacturing, and strong export performance. 2

Myanmar’s external balance improved slightly in 2017/18 as the current account balance strengthened due to growing exports offsetting a decline in ‘personal transfers and other sectors’. FDI approvals fell compared with 2016/17 but flows slightly increased. Rice exports reached record highs and like garments continued to access new markets. Gas exports were propped up by a significant, but uncertain, increase in global gas prices, offsetting declining production from maturing fields. Imports of capital goods remains robust supporting the prospect for continued industrial growth. The kyat and foreign exchange reserves levels both strengthened slightly. FDI approvals declined by 14 percent in relation to 2016/17, possibly due to perceptions of slowing government reforms and uncertainties arising from the Rakhine crisis, but FDI flows adequately financed the current account deficit. The ‘personal transfers and other sectors’ category of the current account, which includes remittances, declined significantly in the first two quarters of 2017/18 affecting the balance of payments.

While inflation moderated overall relative to last year, movements during the year reflected broad money growth and increases in food and fuel prices. The nominal exchange rate appreciated slightly during 2017/18 and bilateral real exchange rate performance was mixed. While prices increased only moderately in the first half of 2017/18, they rose more quickly in the second half. Food and fuel prices both

Year ranges with slashes indicate fiscal years. Those with N-dashes indicate calendar years.2 Data on GDP by expenditure is lagged and more limited.

contributed especially as global fuel prices increased. For instance, transport costs contributed 35 percent of the non-food increase in prices in January 2018. The inflationary impact of continued Central Bank financing of the fiscal deficit moderated as the fiscal deficit narrowed. The Kyat appreciated slightly in nominal terms through 2017/18 relative to the US dollar. However, the real exchange rate depreciated in relation to individual trading partners such as Thailand, Malaysia and China, squeezing the profits of retailers and other users of imported inputs, but creating opportunities for exporting firms.

Despite a large budgeted fiscal deficit and declining State Economic Enterprise (SEE) and government receipts, the 2017/18 fiscal deficit is likely to have narrowed due to budget execution challenges and uncertainty created around the change in fiscal year. The fiscal deficit was initially budgeted to increase significantly to 5.8 percent of GDP in 2017/18 from a provisional actual deficit of 2.7 percent of GDP in 2016/17. General government receipts were budgeted to decline as a share of GDP from 18.2 percent in 2016/17 to 16.9 percent in 2017/18, driven by assumptions in the budget of declining natural gas prices and by falling SEE receipts owing to declining profitability. General government expenditures are budgeted to increase from 20.9 percent of GDP in 2016/17 to 22.2 percent of GDP in 2017/18, driven by budgeted increases in other recurrent expenditures in priority ministries like health, and increased domestic interest payments because of payment of market interest rates on legacy Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) debt. However, actual outturns for 2017/18 may have led to a lower fiscal deficit, given long-standing challenges in budget execution and underestimation of revenues in the original and revised budgets, partly due to stronger than expected gas prices. Recurrent expenditure by the union government performed well against the budget, while capital expenditure continues to decline as a share of GDP. The government continued expanding the domestic debt market, but market participation remains below potential.

Myanmar’s baseline economic outlook remains favorable, with growth projected to increase to 6.8 percent in 2018/19. Consumer price inflation moderated to 5.5 percent in 2017/18 and is expected to ease further to 4.9 percent in 2018/19. The current account deficit is forecast to remain stable in 2018/19 at 4.7 percent due to sustained growth in exports and imports. The government budget deficit outturns are expected to be significantly lower than budgeted, lowering the deficit trend in the medium term.

However, risks to the baseline outlook have intensified. Domestic downside risks to the baseline outlook have intensified due to the ongoing uncertainty related to the crisis in Rakhine State layered upon perceptions of a slowdown in the pace of reforms. A significantly lower growth scenario, while unlikely, could lead to growing macroeconomic imbalances, with implications for broader stability. A rapid decline in foreign investment flows and to a lesser extent tourism related spending would put stress on the external balance and currency. The banking sector faces a challenging transition to comply with Basel I regulations issued in July 2017. Although risks to the global outlook are more balanced than before, important downside risks remain. While growing global trade policy uncertainties may affect the recovery in global trade, impacts on Myanmar are likely to be modest.

Implementing the comprehensive new Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan (MSDP) can provide policy certainty. The MSDP, which lays out a comprehensive and prioritized policy reform agenda, offers the much-needed unifying and coherent roadmap for reforms for the country. It seeks to translate the government’s 12-point economic plan and sector plans into a clear set of policy priorities, and has been welcomed as a significant step forward.

Implementing a fiscal strategy to break the cycle of low revenue and low public spending can support development outcomes. Myanmar has one of the lowest tax to GDP ratios in the world, restricting the space for essential public spending on infrastructure and human capital in absolute terms and in relation to peers. A fiscal strategy to correct this could (a) reallocate spending from less important to priority areas, and (b) grow the size of the overall fiscal envelope through domestic revenue mobilization and sustainable borrowing. This would in turn require: (a) well selected and implemented projects through project appraisal, tracking project performance, and introducing multiyear commitment budgets; (b) enhancing oversight of SEE fiscal performance; (c) reducing revenue leakages from base erosion and tax expenditures; and (d) developing a medium-term debt strategy that relies less on CBM financing and more on other concessional, and noninflationary, sources of financing.

Carefully reviewing plans for a Tax Amnesty. International experience highlights that it is a popular measure globally, but its impact on revenue collection and tax compliance varies greatly depending on design—with success dependent on whether the amnesty is (a) used as a transition to a tax regime with more stringent enforcement, (b) is part of a long-term tax compliance program, and (c) is constantly monitored by tax compliance measurements.

Sustaining growth through Doing Business3 policy reforms can boost private investment and support the economy to compete globally. Despite important progress such as the 2016 Investment Law and the 2017 Company Law (see Box 2 and Selected Topic 1), and making it less costly to start a business and register property, perceptions are that bureaucratic inefficiency, centralized decision making, and emerging protectionism are bottlenecks to improving the operating environment for the private sector. The Government plans to bring Myanmar within the top 100 countries in the ease of doing business ranking from 171 out of 190 countries. It may accelerate this by:

o Strengthening coordination across government departments and public communication to implement recent new economic legislation. The Private Sector Development (PSD) Committee, chaired by the Vice President, can coordinate and monitor implementation of new legislation, such as the Investment Law and the Company Law, for instance requesting standardizing criteria for ministerial permits for foreign investments, streamlining registration, reporting, and tax filing for small and medium-sized enterprises, reducing multiple applications for trade permits, physical inspections, and the arbitrary approach to customs valuation.

o Monitoring progress in reforms related to Doing Business. The new “Improvement of the Doing Business Working Group” chaired by the Ministry of Commerce can make clear and transparent the roles of different departments in improving the business environment and using monitoring systems to check implementation progress, which can be discussed at the PSD Committee.

o Further liberalizing regulations for foreign investment. Myanmar could build on the introduction of the Investment Law and Company Law by further liberalizing sectors, such as insurance and banking services, for foreign investment, along with simultaneous implementation of prudential regulations. Currently, Myanmar has one of the highest levels of restriction for FDI on insurance and banking sectors (OECD 2016). Such liberalization can potentially create a new momentum for driving private sector investment

The Doing Business report measures policies (regulations and procedures) along the 10 indicators affecting the life cycle of domestic companies, such as starting a business, getting a location and constructing a facility, getting financing, paying taxes and trading across borders, and dealing with contracts or disputes. The indicator only measures policies that are relevant for formal businesses, and data are collected only in the largest city (with the second-largest city included for countries with a population of more than 100 million).

The new investment law has been well received, especially by foreign investors who account for up to a fifth of exports and of formal employment, but more needs to be done to raise awareness and build capacity for implementation and coordination. The main changes to the investment regime include lower entry barriers, more streamlined procedures, a dedicated mechanism to mediate investor disputes, and more selective investment incentives. The World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) conducted in 2016 with an extension in 2017 suggests that foreign firms account for about 20 percent of all exports and 18 percent of formal employment. They are also more productive and more likely to train workers. Most firms aware of the new law think it will positively impact their sector through better access to input/output markets and technology transfers associated with increased FDI. Foreign firms spent significant management time to deal with regulations under the old investment regime and consider the process as favoring those with government connections. To successfully attract and maximize the impact of FDI, the government needs to raise awareness of the new law and regulations, build staff capacity at the regional level, and clarify the setup of the Investor Assistance Committee. Complementary reforms should also be accelerated to improve investors’ access to land, infrastructure, skilled labor, and quality domestic inputs

Ownership, firm size and stable electricity provision affect firm productivity, according to this joint analysis of Myanmar’s firm demographics and productivity.4 The note uses a novel survey of businesses to highlight the speed of the evolution of the private sector in Myanmar, in particular in the manufacturing sector. But productivity has remained low, and is widely dispersed across firms, suggesting that policymakers should pay attention to the opportunity for reallocation of labor across firms, and to the forces that hold back small productive firms. The note also highlights the high correlation between access to electricity and productivity, reinforcing existing findings from Enterprise Surveys.

A sound, efficient, and inclusive financial system can play a critical role in creating and sustaining a market-based economy and ensuring inclusive growth in Myanmar. Myanmar’s financial system is small, shallow, tightly-held, vulnerable and significantly underserves large parts of the private sector and general public. The reform agenda necessary to develop a “fit for purpose” financial system in Myanmar runs both deep and wide, even as recent changes have yielded significant gains. On the one hand, the financial sector needs to move on to a more solid footing, on the other hand it needs to significantly expand outreach and the range of available instruments. A stable solution therefore requires complex and simultaneous reforms. Policymakers have to implement a realistic, minimally disruptive, clearly articulated roadmap that is also sufficiently transformative so as to carry the benefits of more effective financial services to the general public.

Based on a joint paper prepared with the Myanmar Government Central Statistics Office

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ျမနမာစးပြားေရးေလလာမႈအစရငခစာအႏစခပ ျမနမာႏငင၏မကခရစးပြားေရးသည ၂၀၁၆-၁၇ တြင ေႏးေကြးခရာ၊ စးပြားေရးတးတကႏႈနးသည ၂၀၁၇-၁၈တြင အတငးအတာတစခအထ အားေကာငး လာခသညဟ ခန႔မနးထားသည။ ေရ႕စးပြားေရးအလားအလာအေနနင တးတကေကာငးမြနလာမညဟ ေမာမနးထားေသာလညး မကခရ စးပြားေရးဆငရာ ေဘးအႏရာယတးပြားလက ရပါသည။ GDP တးႏႈနးသည ၂၀၁၆/၁၇ တြင ၅ ဒသမ ၉ ရာခငႏႈနး မ ၂၀၁၇/၁၈ တြင ဒသမ ၆.၄ ရာခငႏႈနးရလာသညအတြက ျမနမာစးပြားေရးသည က႑စမ တးတကချခငးျဖစသညဟ ခန႔မနးပါသည။ ေငြေဖာငးပြမႈသည ၂၀၁၆/၁၇ ခႏစက ၇ ရာခငႏႈနးရခရာမ၂၀၁၇/၁၈ ခႏစတြင ၅ ဒသမ ၅ ရာခငႏႈနးသ႔ အသငအတင ကဆငးသြားသည။ ေငြေၾကးလလယမႈနႈနးမာ တညျငမေနျပး ဒဇငဘာလမစ၍ ျမနမာကပေငြတနဖးတကလာခသည။ ပ႔ကနျမငတကလာမႈေၾကာင ကနသြယေရးလေငြအနညးငယ ကဆငးသြားခသည။ဘတဂက လေငြသညလညး ဘ႑ာႏစပထမကးလအတြငးလညး ကဆငးသြားခသည။ စးပြားေရးစြမးေဆာငမႈ အားေကာငးေနၿမျဖစေသာလညး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ ေႏးေကြးျခငး၊ ေငြေရးေၾကးေရး က႑တြငအားနညးခကမားရေနျခငး၊ ရခငျပညနယအကပအတညးကေျဖရငးရာတြင တးတကမႈနညးပါးျခငး တ႔ႏင ပတသကၿပး စးရမစရာမားရေနျခငးသည စးပြားေရး လာေရာကလပကငလမႈက ထခကေစၿပး စြမးေဆာငမႈကလညးအားနညးသြားေစမည အရပ လကၡဏာမားရေနပါသည။ ကမာၻတစဝနး ကနသြယေရးမဝါဒ မေသခာမႈ၊ ကနစညေစးႏႈနးမား အတကအကမၿငမမႈစသည ျပငပအေၾကာငးျခငးရာမား ကလညး စးပြားေရးတးတကမႈ ေမၽာမနးခကက ထခကေစနငပါသည။

ျမနမာအစးရအေနနငလညး စးပြားေရးအလားအလာမားေကာငးမြနလာေစရနအတြက- MSDP (Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan) ကစတင ေဆာငရြကျခငးမားျပလပလကရပါသည။ အစးရသစအေနနင နငငေတာအခြနေငြေကာကချခငး ၊ အသးစရတမားက ပမအကးရစြာ အသးျပျခငး၊ ပမေသခာသညေပၚလစမားခမတေဆာငရြကျခငးနင စးပြားေရးလပငနးမားအတြက လြယကသငေတာသည အေျခအေနမား ဖနတးေပးျခငးအားျဖင ရငးႏးျမႇပနမႈမားက စြေဆာငနငသညသာမက စးပြားေရး ေမာမနးခကမား တးတကေကာငးမြနလာေစနငမညက “Special Topic” တြငေဖာျပထားသည။

လတတေလာ စးပြားေရးဖြ႔ျဖးတးတကမႈအေျခအေနမားျမနမာႏငငသည ၂၀၁၇/၁၈ ဘ႑ာအတြငး စးပြားေရးက႑တြင တးတကမႈက ႀကေတြ႕ခရသည။ ထတလပမႈအပငးက ၾကညလင လယယာက႑ ျပနဦးေမာလာချခငး၊ စကမႈႏင အထးအားျဖင အထညခပလပငနးမားဆကလက အားေကာငးမႈမားရခသည။ ခရးသြားလပငနးႏင ဘဏလပငနးက႑ တြင မေရရာမႈမားေၾကာင အနညးငယကဆငးခလငကစား ဝနေဆာငမႈ႑အားေကာငးချခငးေၾကာင စးပြားေရးတးတကမႈက အေထာကအပျပခသည။ ၂၀၁၇-၁၈ ပထမေျခာကလအတြငး ေငြေဖာငးပြမႈေလာကျခငးေၾကာင ပဂၢလက စားသးမႈတးတကခသည။ ထ႔အျပင ျမနမာကပေငြတညျငမျခငးနင စကမႈထတကနထတလပမႈတြင ပဂၢလကရငးႏးျမႇပႏတးျမႇငလာျခငးတ႔၏အေထာကအပေၾကာင စစေပါငး၀ယလအားမာ တးတကလာခသညဟ ခန႔မနးရပါသည။

ပ႔ကနတးျမငလာမႈေၾကာင ကနသြယမႈလေငြေလာကလာခသည။ ႏငငျခားတက႐ကရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈခြငျပခကေပးႏႈနးမာ မႏစကႏင ယဥလၽင ေလာက လာေသာလညးတစနစအတြငး ျမနမာနငငအတြငးသ႔ FDI ရငးနးျမႇပနမႈမာတးတကလာသညဟ ခန႔မနးသည။ ဆနတငပ႔မႈသည သမငးဝငအျမငဆးသ႔ ေရာကရခၿပး အထညခပကသ႔ေသာ ကနစညမားမာလညး ေစးကြကအသစမား ဆကလကရရေနဆျဖစသည။ ဓာတေငြ႕တငပ႔မႈက ၾကညလၽငလညး သကတမးျပညတြငးမားမ ထတလပမႈ ကဆငးလာေသာလညး တစဖကတြင ကမာၻ႔သဘာဝဓာတေငြ႕ေစးႏႈနးမားမာ (ထသ႔ဆကျဖစပါမညဟ မေသခာ ေသာလညး) သသသာသာ ျမငတကချခငးေၾကာင သဘာဝဓာတေငြ႕တငပ႔မႈက ကားကနထားႏငဆျဖစသည။ အေျခခသြငးအားစတငသြငးမႈမား တးတကလာမႈက စကမႈက႑တးတကမႈ ဆကလကျဖစေပၚမည အလားအလာမားကလညး ေထာကပလကရသည။ ကပေငြႏင ႏငငျခား ေငြေၾကး အရနပမာဏတ႔လညး အနညးငယအားေကာငးခသည။ FDI ခြငျပသညပမာဏမာ ၂၀၁၆-၁၇နင ႏႈငးယဥလငကဆငးခသည။ ျဖစႏငဖြယရာ အေၾကာငးမာ အစးရ၏ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမား ေႏးေကြးလာသညဟ ယဆမႈမား ရေနျခငးႏင ရခငအကပအတညးက အေျချပ၍ ထြကေပၚလာေသာ မေရရာမႈမားရေနျခငး တ႔ေၾကာငဟ ယဆရသည။ သ႔ရာတြင FDI စးဝငမႈမားသည လကရ ကနသြယေရး လေငြကြာဟမႈကကာမသညဟခနမနးသည။ ျပညပေရာကမားထမ ေငြျပနလႊ ပ႔ေငြမားအပါအ၀င အျခားက႑မားေၾကာင ၂၀၁၇/၁၈ ခႏစအတြငး ကဆငးချခငးေၾကာင ေငြေပးေငြယရငးတမးက ထခကမႈရခသည။

ယခငနစနငနငးယဥလင ေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြမႈႏႈနးမာေလာကသြားသညဟ ခန႔မနးရပါသည။ ျမနမာကပေငြတနဖးမာ ၂၀၁၇-၁၈အတြငး အနညးငယ တနဖးတကလာေသာလညး နစနငငနႈငးယဥေငြလလယနႈနးမာ mix ျဖစေနသည။ ၂၀၁၇/၁၈ ဘ႑ာႏစ၏ ပထမႏစဝကကာလတြင ေစးႏႈနးမားသည အသငအတငသာ ျမငတကခေသာလညး ဒတယႏစဝကကာလတြင ပမလငျမနစြာ ျမငတကခသည။ အစားအေသာကႏင ေလာငစာဆေစးႏႈနးမား ျမငတကခရျခငးမာ အထးသျဖငကမာၻ႔ေလာငစာဆေစးႏႈနးမား ျမငတကခ၍ျဖစသည။ ဥပမာ-အစားအေသာကမဟတေသာ အပစ၏ ၃၅%ပါ၀ငေသာ သယယပ႔ေဆာငေရးစရတမားမာ ဇနန၀ါရ ၂၀၁၈ တြငျမငတကခသည။ ဘ႑ာေရးလေငြအတြက ဗဟဘဏ၏ျဖညဆညးေပးမႈမာ ယခငေလာက

6

မျမငမားေတာသညက ေတြ႔ရရသည။၂၀၁၇/၁၈ ဘ႑ာႏစ တစေလၽာကတြင ႏငငျခားသးေငြႏငယဥလၽင ျပညတြငးကပေငြတနဖးျမငတကခေသာလညး ကပေငြ၏ ပကတတနဖးမာမ ကဆငးခသည။ ထငးႏငင၊ မေလးရားနင တရတနငငကသ႔ေသာ အဓကကနသြယဖကႏငငမားႏငယဥလၽင ေငြေၾကးလလယႏႈနးမား ကဆငးခၿပး ေငြေဖာငးပြမႈႏႈနး ျမနဆနခရာ လကလကနသညမားႏင သြငးကနသးစြသမားအေပၚ ထခကမႈရခသည။

ဘတဂကလေငြအေျမာကအျမားရေနျခငး၊ ႏငငပငစးပြားေရးလပငနးမားႏင အစးရ၏ရေငြမား ကဆငးေနျခငးတ႔ရေနေသာလညး ဘတဂကအေကာင အထညေဖာမႈဆငရာ စနေခၚမႈမားႏင ဘ႑ာေရးႏစေျပာငးလမႈႏင ဆကစပေသာ မေရရာမႈမားေၾကာင ၂၀၁၇/၁၈ ဘ႑ာေရးလေငြ ေလာကသြားခ ပရသည။ ဘ႑ာေရးလေငြသည ၂၀၁၆/၁၇ ခႏစက GDP ၏ ၂ ဒသမ ၇ ရာခငႏႈနး ရခရာမ ၂၀၁၇/၁၈ ဘ႑ာႏစတြင GDP ၏ ၅ ဒသမ ၈ ရာခငႏႈနးသ႔ သသသာသာ ျမငတကမညဟ တြကခကထားသည။ အစးရ၏အေထြအေထြရေငြမားမာ ၂၀၁၆/၁၇ ဘ႑ာႏစတြင GDP ၏ ၁၈ ဒသမ ၂ ရာခငႏႈနး ရခရာမ ၂၀၁၇/၁၈ ဘ႑ာႏစတြင ၁၆ ဒသမ ၉ ရာခငႏႈနးသ႔ ကဆငးမညဟ တြကခကထားသည။ အထးသျဖင သဘာဝဓာတေငြ႕ေစးႏႈနးမား ကဆငးလာျခငးေၾကာင ႏငငပငစးပြားေရးလပငနး - SEE - မား၏ အကးအျမတ ေလာနညးကဆငးျခငးေၾကာင ျဖစသည။ အစးရ၏အေထြအေထြအသးစရတမားမာမ ၂၀၁၆/၁၇ ခႏစက GDP ၏ ၂၀ ဒသမ ၉ ရာခငႏႈနးမ ၂၀၁၇/၁၈ ခႏစတြင GDP ၏ ၂၂ ဒသမ ၂ ရာခငႏႈနးသ႔ ျမငတကလာမည ျဖစသည။ အေၾကာငးရငးမာ ကနးမာေရးကသ႔ေသာ အဓကဦးစားေပး ဝနႀကးဌာနမား၏ သာမန အသးစရတမားအတြက ဘတဂကလာထားေငြျမငတကျခငး၊ ဗဟဘဏတြင တငရေနေသာအတးနႈနးေပးေခမႈေၾကာငျဖစသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ဘတဂကေရးဆြရာတြင ေရးယခငကတညးကရလာခသည အခက အခမားျဖစသည ရရထားသညဘတဂကအေပၚ အျပညအ၀အေကာငအထညမေဖာနငျခငး၊ ဝငေငြမားအေပၚ ေလၽာ႔ခခန႔မနးချခငးတ႔ ေၾကာင ၂၀၁၇/၁၈ အတြက အမနတကယဘ႑ာေရးလေငြ ခန႔မနးသညထကနညးပါးႏငသည။ ျပညေထာငစအစးရ၏ သာမနအသးစရတမား ဆကလကျမငတက ေနဦးမညျဖစၿပး ေငြလးေငြရငး သးစြေငြမားမာမ ဆကလကကဆငးေနမည ျဖစသည။ အစးရသည ျပညတြငးေကြးၿမေစးကြကက ဆကလကခ႕ထြင ေနခေသာလညး ေစးကြက၏ ပါဝငေဆာင႐ြကမႈမာမ အမနတကယျဖစသငသညပမာဏေအာက ေရာကရေနၿမျဖစသည။

စးပြားေရးေမၽာမနးခကႏင မကခရစးပြားေရးဆငရာအႏရာယမားျမနမာႏငင၏ ေယဘယစးပြားေရးအေျခအေန ေမၽာမနးခကမာမ အေကာငးဘကတြင ရေနဆျဖစသည။ ၂၀၁၈/၁၉ ဘ႑ာႏစတြင စးပြားေရး တးတကမႈသည ၆ ဒသမ ၈ ရာခငႏႈနးသ႔ ျမငတကမည အလားအလာရသည။ ကနစညေစးႏႈနးမားျမငတကမႈမာ ၂၀၁၇/၁၈ ဘ႑ာႏစတြင ၅ ဒသမ ၅ ရာခငႏႈနး ရခၿပး ၂၀၁၈/၁၉ ဘ႑ာႏစတြင ၄ ဒသမ ၉ အထ ဆကလကကဆငးမညဟ ခန႔မနးရသည။ သြငးကနပ႔ကန မနမန ဆကလက ျမငတကေနသညအတြက ကနသြယေရးလေငြျပမႈမာ ၂၀၁၈/၁၉ ဘ႑ာႏစတြင ၄ ဒသမ ၇ ရာခငႏႈနးျဖင ဆကလကတညၿငမေနမညဟ ေမၽာမနး ရသည။ အစးရ၏ဘတဂတလေငြမာ မလ တြကခကထားသညထက လကေတြ႕တြင ေလာနညးသြားကာ ကာလလတတစခအတြငး လေငြျပမႈ ေလာက သြားမညဟ ေမၽာလငရသည။

သ႔ေသာလညး ေယဘယစးပြားေရးအေျခအေန ေမၽာမနးခကက ေႏာငယကမညအေၾကာငးမားလညး ႀကးထြားလာေနသည။ ရခငျပညနယအေရးအခငး မားႏင ဆကစပၿပး မေရရာမႈမား ဆကလကေပၚေပါကေနျခငးေၾကာငျမနမာနငင၏ စးပြားေရးဖြ႔ျဖးတးတကမႈက ေနာငေနးတးတကေစနငသည။ ျဖစႏငေျခနညးသညဆေသာလညး စးပြားေရးတးတကမႈႏႈနးႀကးႀကးမားမား ေလာနညးသြားမညဆပါက မကခ႐စးပြားေရးမတညၿငမမႈႀကးထြားလာႏငကာ ႏငင၏အေထြေထြမတညၿငမမႈကျဖစနငသညဟခန႔မနးသည။ ထ႔အျပင FDI ျပနမာနငငအတြငးစး၀ငမႈအလငအျမနကဆငးသြားျခငးနငနငငတကာခရးသြားလပငနးမား အရနေႏးေကြးသြားျခငးမားကလညး(External Balance)နငေငြလလယနႈနးမားက ထခကေစနငသည။ ဘဏလပငနးက႑ အေနျဖငဆလၽင၂၀၁၇ ခႏစ ဇလငလက ထတျပနခသည Basel I စညးမဥးမားက လကနာႏငေအာင ခကခကခခ ႀကးပမးအသြငေျပာငးေနရသည။ ကမာၻလးအတငးအတာျဖင စးပြားေရးေမၽာမနးခကအျမငက အေႏာငအယကေပးမညအရာမား သသသာသာနညးသြားေသာလညး အေရးတႀကးကင တြယရမည စးပြားေရးအႏရာယမား ရေနဆျဖစသည။ ကမာၻ႔ကနသြယေရးမဝါဒပငး မၿငမသကမႈ ျမငမားလာေနျခငးေၾကာင ကမာၻလးအတငးအတာ ကနသြယေရး ျပနလညဦးေမာႏငမႈကထခကနငသကသ႔ ျမနမာႏငငေပၚတြငလညးမာမ ၎၏ဆးကးမားကအတနအသငအကးသကေရာကနငသည။

ဥးစားေပးေဆာငရြကရမညစးပြားေရးမ၀ါဒမားMSDP က စတငအေကာငအထညေဖာနငပါလင ေရရာတကသညစးပြားေရးမ၀ါဒမားက ခမတနငရန အေထာကအပေပးနငပါသည။ အေလးေပး ေဆာငရြကရမည ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈအစအစဥမားက ထညသြငးေဖာျပထားသည MSDP သညျမနမာနငငအေနနငဥးတညသြားရမညလမးေၾကာငးက တစစတစစညးထရငးလငးစြာထညသြငးေဖာျပထားသည။ စးပြားေရးမ၀ါဒ၁၂ခကကအေျခခ၍ က႑အလက ဥးစားေပးေဆာငရြကရမည မ၀ါဒမားက MSDP ၌ အေသးစတ ရငးလငးစြာေဖာျပထားသည။

Fiscal Strategy ကအေကာငအထညေဖာျခငးျဖင နငငေတာအတြကရေငြႏင ျပညသ႔အသးစရတမားကလအပသညေနရာမားတြင ပ၍သးစြလာ ႏငသည။ ျမနမာႏငင၏အခြနေကာကခရရမႈနင GDP အခးသညတစကမာၻလးနငႏႈငးယဥလငနမကေနမႈေၾကာင အဓကလအပေနသည အေျခခ အေဆာကအဥးနင လ႔အရငးအျမစဖြ႔ျဖးေရးတ႔တြင ထေရာကစြာသးစြနငရနအတြက အဟန႔အတားျဖစေနသည။

7

Fiscal Strategy က အေကာငအထညေဖာႏငပါက (i) ပ၍အေရးၾကးေသာေနရာမားက ျပညသ႔အသးစရတမားကခြေ၀အသးျပနငျခငး၊ (ii) နငငေတာအေနနင ၀ငေငြကတးပြားေအာင ေဆာငရြကျခငးနင ေရရညတညတေသာေခးေငြမားက ေခးယျခငးမတစဆင တငးျပည၏ (Fiscal Envelop) ကပမတးပြားေအာင ျပလပႏငျခငး၊အထကပါအခကမားက ေဆာငရြကနငရနမာ ေအာကပါအခကမားကအေကာငအထညေဖာေဆာငရြကရနလအပသည။(a) စမကနးမားက အကျဖတစစစေရြးခယျခငး (Project Appraisal) ၊ စမကနးအေကာငအထညေဖာမႈမားက စဥဆကမပက ေစာငၾကပ ေလလာျခငး၊

ေရရညေမာမနးသည ဘတဂကမား ေရးဆြျခငးျဖင Project မားက ေသခာစြာစစစ ေရြးခယေဆာငရြကရနလအပသည။ (b) နငငပငစးပြားေရးလပငနးမား၏ Fiscal performance မားကၾကးၾကပေစာငၾကညရနလအပသည။ (c) ႏငငေတာအခြနရေငြယစးမႈနင အခြနေကာကခမႈနငဆကႏြယေနေသာကနကစရတကေလာခရနလအပသည။ ဘတဂကလေငြအတြက ဗဟဘဏေပၚတြင မခေနရမႈကေလာခသငသည။ (d) ကာလလတေၾကြးမနညးဗဟာ (Medium Term Debt Stratergy) ကအေကာငအထညေဖာျခငးျဖင ဘတဂကလေငြျဖညဆညးမႈအတြကဗဟဘဏအေပၚတြငမခေနရမႈႈကေလာခနငသညသာမက အျခား Concessional ေခးေငြႏင (ေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြမႈ မျဖစေစသည) ေငြေၾကးျဖညဆညးမႈမားကေရြးခယ ျပလပနငသည၊ အခြနကငးလြတနငစမခကကေသခာစြာစစစရနလအပသညဟအၾကျပသည။ နငငတကာအေတြ႔အၾကအရ ”အခြငကငးလြတခြင”မာ ေခတစားလက ရေသာလညး အခြနေကာကခရရမႈနငအခြနလကနာမႈအေပၚ အကးသကေရာကမႈအတငးအတာမာ ေအာကပါအခကမားအေပၚတြင မတညေနပါသည။ (a) အခြနစနစတစခနငတစခအေျပာငးအလကာလအတြငး ”အခြနကငးလြတခြငက” အခြနအာဏာပငမားအေနနင ၾကပၾကပမတမတ ေဆာငရြကျခငး၊ (b) အခြနကငးလြတခြငက ကာလရညအခြနလကနာမႈစမကနး (Long Term Tax Compliance Program)၏ လပငနးတစတတပငးအျဖစ ေဆာင ရြကျခငး၊ (c) အခြနလကနာမႈရမရကစဥဆကမျပတေစာငၾကပၾကညရႈျခငး

Doing Business ႏငပတသကေသာျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားက ျပလပျခငးျဖင ပဂၢလကရငးနးျမႇပနမႈမားက ပမဆြေဆာငနငမညသာမက စးပြားေရး လပငနးမားက နငငတကာနငရငေဘာငတနး၍ေဆာငရြကနငမညျဖစသည။ နငငေတာအစးရအေနနင ၂၀၁၆ ရငးႏးျမႇပနမႈဥပေဒနင ၂၀၁၇ ကမၸဏ ဥပေဒမားက ျပဌာနးျခငးျဖင၄ငး လပငနးသစစတငစရတနင ပငဆငမႈပစၥညးမားႏငပတသကေသာ မတပတငစရတမားက ေလာကေစရန ေဆာငရြကျခငးျဖင ၄ငးရငးႏးျမႇပနမႈက တးတကလာေစရနေဆာငရြကမႈမားရခသည။(Box2, …..Topic 1) သ႔ေသာလညး ထေရာကမႈနညးေသာ ျဗရကေရစနညးလမးမားရေနျခငး၊ ဗဟခပကငသညဆးျဖတမႈမားေပၚတြင မခမႈမားရေနျခငး၊ လပငနးမားအေပၚ အကာအကြယေပးမႈ ပမမားလာျခငး တ႔သည ပဂၢလက က႑က ဖြ႔ျဖးတးတကလာေစရနအတြက အဟန႔အတားျဖစေစသည။ နငငေတာအစးရအေနနင “Doing Business” လြယကမႈ အဆငက ၁၇၁ (စစေပါငး၁၉၀ႏငင) မ ၁၀၀ သ႔ေရာကရေစရနၾကးစားလကရသည။ ထသ႔ ေရာကရနငရနမာ ေအာကပါအခကမားက အရနျပငးစြာ ေဆာငရြကသငသည။

ο အစးရဌာနတစခနငတစခၾကားပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈက ပမအားျပညေဆာငရြကရန လအပျခငးႏင အသစျပဌာနးေသာ စးပြားေရးဆငရာ ဥပေဒအေကာငအထညေဖာမႈက ျပညသမားသေစရနဆကသြယေဆာငရြကျခငးစသညတ႔ လအပပါသည။ ဒသမၼတမ ဥးစးေသာ (ပဂၢလက က႑ဖြ႔ျဖးမႈေကာမတ) အေနနငအသစျပဌာနးထားသညဥပေဒမား (ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈနငကမၸဏအကဥပေဒမား) အေကာငအထညေဖာမႈက စဥဆကမပက ေလလာေစာငၾကညရနလအပပါသည။ ၂၀၁၆ ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈဥပေဒအရ ၀နၾကးဌာနမားမာ နငငျခားရငးနးျမႇပနမႈ စ သတမတ ခကမားက ေကာမတအေနနင ေတာငးခခြငရသငသည။ ထ႔အျပင ကမၸဏအကဥပေဒသစအရ SME မားအတြကမတပတငျခငး ၊ အစရငခစာ တငျပျခငး၊ အခြနစနစသတမတျခငးမားအတြက စနစတစခ သတသတမတမတရသငသည။ ေကာမတအေနနင ကနသြယမႈလပငနးမား အတြက အၾကမၾကမခြငျပခကေတာငးခရနလအပသညမားက ေလာနညးလာေအာငေဆာငရြကသငသည။ လကယတငသြားေရာကစစေဆး ျခငးမားသာမက အေကာကအခြနတနဖးသတမတျခငးမားက “ arbitrary approach” ျဖငေဆာငရြကျခငးမား စသျဖငလအပပါသည။

ο Doing Business ႏင ပတသက၍ ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမား ျပလပရာတြင စဥဆကမျပတ ေလလာေစာငၾကညရန လအပပါသည။ ကနသြယေရး

ဝနႀကးဌာနမ ဥးစးဖြ႔စညးထားသည “improvement of doing business working group” အေနႏင စးပြားေရးလပငနးမား လပကငမႈက ပမေကာငးမြနသညအေျခအေနမား ျဖစလာေစရနအတြက ေဆာငရြကရာတြင သကဆငရာဌာနမား၏ တာဝနဝတရားမားက ပြငလငးျမငသာစြာ ရေစရန တာဝနယေဆာငရြကသငသည။ ေကာမတအေနႏငစဥဆကမျပတ ေလလာေစာငၾကညသညစနစက အသးျပၿပး doing business ၏ တးတကမႈအေျခအေနက စစေဆးၿပး PSD ေကာမတတြင ပါဝငေဆြးေႏြးသငသည။

ο တငးကပသည စညးမဥးမားက ပမေလာေပးျခငးျဖင ႏငငျခား ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈမားက ဆြေဆာငသငသည။ ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈ ဥပေဒႏင ကမၸဏ အကဥပေဒမားက အေကာငအထညေဖာ ေဆာငရြကျခငးမအစျပ၍ အျခားက႑မားကလညး လြတလပစြာ ေဆာငရြကႏငရန ပမလမးဖြင ေပးျခငးမား ျပလပႏငသည။ ဥပမာ - အာမခနငဘဏလပငနးတြင ႏငငျခားရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈမား လြတလပစြာလပကငခြငက ”prudential

8

regulation’’ အေကာငအထညေဖာမႈႏငအတ တစၿပငတညး ေဆာငရြကသငသည။ျမနမာႏငငသည အာမခႏငဘဏလပငနးတြင နငငျခား ရငးနးျမႇပနမႈမားျပလပရနအတြက ကန႔သတခက အမားဆးရသညႏငငမားတြင တစႏငငအပါအ၀ငျဖစေၾကာငးက OECD 2016 ကေဖာျပ ထားသည။ ယငးက႑မားက လြတလပခြငျပပါလင ပဂၢလကရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈမားမာ အရနအဟနတးတကလာနငသည။

ေရြးခယထားေသာအေၾကာငးအရာေခါငးစဥ - ၁။ နငငျခားရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈက တးတကေစမည တြနးအားမားႏငငျခားရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈ ဥပေဒအသစက ရငးႏးျမႇပႏသမားက ၾကဆၾကသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ဥပေဒသစက ပ၍နားလညသေဘာေပါကေစရန လအပ သကသ႔ ပးေပါငးအေကာငအထညေဖာမႈအတြက ၀နထမးမား၏ စြမးေဆာငရညမားက ျမငတငေပးရန လအပသည။ နငငေတာအစးရအေနျဖင နငငျခားရငးနးျမႇပနမႈမား စတငရာတြငရသည အတားအဆးမားကေလာချခငး၊ ပ၍စနစကသညနညးလမးမား အသးျပလာျခငး၊ အခငးခငး အျငငးပြားမႈမားက ေျဖရငးေပးသညလပထးလပနညးမားေပၚေပါကလာျခငး၊ ရငးနးျမႇပနမႈအတြက မကလးမားေပးျခငး စသညျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားက ေဆာငရြကခသည။

ကမာၻ႔ဘဏမေကာကယေသာ (WBG) စးပြားေရးလပငနးစစတမးအရ ႏငငျခားတငပ႔မႈ ၂၀% က ႏငငျခားကမၸဏမားက တငပ႔ၿပး တရားဝငလပသား ၁၈% က ယငးအလပမားတြင ဝငေရာကလပကငေနသည။ တျခားလပသားမားႏငယဥလင နငငျခားတငပ႔မႈက႑တြင ဝငေရာကလပကငလပသားမား၏ ထတလပမႈစြမးအားမာ ပ၍ျမငမားၾကၿပး ေလကငသငၾကားထားေသာ ကြမးကငလပသားမား ျဖစႏငေခ ရသည။

ဤစစတမးအရ ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈ ဥပေဒအသစသည ျမနမာႏငငအတြငး FDI စး၀ငမႈ ၊ တးပြားလာမႈႏငအတ လပငနးမားအတြက သြငးအားစ/ထတကန ပစၥညးေစးကြကမားက လြယကစြာခဥးကပနငသညသာမက နညးပညာအသစမားကပါရေစပါသည။ႏငငျခားရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈမားက ဆြေဆာငရနႏင အျမငဆးရလာဒ ေကာငးမားက ရရရနအတြက အစးရအေနႏင ထတျပနထားသညဥပေဒစညးမဥးမားက ျပညသမားပမ သေဘာေပါက နားလညေစရန ေဆာငရြကျခငး၊ တငးေဒသအဆငဝနထမးမား၏ စြမးေဆာငရညမား ျမငတငျခငးႏင ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈမားက အကအညေပးသည ေကာမတဖြ႕စညးမႈ စသညတ႔က ရငးလငးစြာေဆာငရြကသငသည။ထ႔ျပင ရငးႏးျမႇပႏသမားအေနႏင ေျမယာငားရမးလပကငမႈ၊ အေျခခအေဆာကအဦ၊ ကြမးကင လပသားမားရရေစရနနင အရညအေသြးျပည၀သည ျပညတြငးသြငးအားစလအပခကမားအတြက ျဖညစြကျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားက အရနအဟန ျပငးျပငးေဆာငရြကသငသည။

ေရြးခယထားေသာအေၾကာငးအရာေခါငးစဥ - ၂။ ျမနမာထတလပမႈစြမးအားဆငရာ စမးစစေလလာခကလပငနး ပငဆငမႈ၊ အရြယအစား၊ ႏင လပစစမး ပမနရရမႈ အေနအထားမားက လပငနး၏ထတလပမႈ စြမးရညက ေျပာငးလေစႏငသည။ ျမနမာစးပြားေရး စစတမးေပၚတြင အေျခခသည ဤစမးစစခကသည ပဂၢလက က႑ေျပာငးလလာမႈကေဖာျပထားျပး လပငနးမား၏ ထတလပမႈစြမးအားမား ဆကလက နမကဆျဖစသညကေဖာညႊနးထားသည။ သ႔ျဖစပါ၍ ေပၚလစခမတသမားအေနႏင လပသားအငအားက သငသလ ျပနလညေနရာခထားေပးေဆာငရြကရနလအပသည။ ထ႔ျပင ထတလပမႈစြမးရညျပညဝသည လပငနးငယမားရငဆငေနရေသာ အခကအခမားကလညး အစးရအေနျဖင ကညေဆာငရြက ေပးသငသည။လပစစရရမႈသညလပငနးမား၏ ထတလပမႈ စြမးအငနင တကရကဆကစပမႈေၾကာငးကလညး ဤစမးစစခကက ေတြ႕ရသည။

ေရြးခယထားေသာအေၾကာငးအရာေခါငးစဥ - ၃။ ေငြေၾကးအခြငအလမးတနးတရရေအာငေဆာငရြကမႈ အရညအေသြးျပညဝေသာ ျပညသအားလးတနးတေငြေၾကးအခြငအလမးရရႏငသည ဘ႑ာေရးစနစတစခ ေပၚေပါကလာေရးမာ ေစးကြကစးပြားေရး စနစ ေပၚေပါကလာေရးႏင အလးစပါဝငသည စးပြားေရးဖြ႔ျဖးမႈအတြက မရမျဖစလအပသည။ လကရ ျမနမာေငြေၾကးစနစမားမာ အရြယအစားအရ ေသးငယျခငး၊ အားနညးခကမားရေနျခငးေၾကာငပဂၢလကႏင ျပညသအမားအတြက လအပသည ပမာဏအတငးအတာအထ ေငြေၾကးဝနေဆာငမႈမေပး ႏငေသးပါ။လတတေလာေဆာငရြကေနသညေငြေၾကးဆငရာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားမာ ထးျခားသည ရလာဒမားက ရရေစသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ေငြေၾကး စနစ တးတကေျပာငးလရနမာ နကနကယျပန႔သည ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားျပလပရန လအပေနေသးသည။ ေငြေၾကးက႑အေနႏငတဘကတြင အေျခခင ရပတညရနလအပသကသ႔ အျခားတဘကတြငလညး နညးလမးမားစႏင ေငြေၾကးဝနေဆာငမႈမားက ကယကယျပန႔ျပန႔ ခ႕ထြငရန လအပသည။ ထသ႔ဝနေဆာငမႈေပးႏငရနအတြက နကနေသာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားက ဆကတကလပေဆာငရနလအပသည။ ေပၚလစခမတသမားအေနႏင လကေတြ႔ ကၿပး အထအရနညးေသာ တခနတညးတြင အမားသမားက ထေရာကသည ေငြေၾကးဝနေဆာငမႈေပးသညလမးျပေျမပတစခက ရငးလငးစြာ ခမတ သငသည။

MYANMARECONOMICMONITOR

MYANMAR ECONOMIC MONITOR | May 2018

May 2018

Growth AmidstUncertaintyGrowth AmidstUncertaintyExecutive Summary