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Milestone Workshop 2: November 20, 2013
Eylon Shamir
[email protected]
Hydrologic Research Center (HRC), San Diego
Funded by, NOAA Climate and Societal Interactions Sectoral Applications Research Program
(SARP)
Groundwater, Climate and Stakeholder
Engagement (GCASE)https://wrrc.arizona.edu/GCASE
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The Hydrologic Research Center is a public benefit
nonprofit organization.
HRC’s goal is to help bridge the gap between scientific
research and applications for the solution of important
societal problems that involve water.
Hydrologic Research Center
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Upper Santa Cruz Groundwater Microbasins
Gretchen 2007, Groundwater Flow Model of the Santa Cruz Active
Management Area Microbasins International Boundary to Nogales
International Wastewater Treatment Plant Santa Cruz County,
Arizona AZDWR Modeling Report No. 15.
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Hydrologic Projections: Space
Global General
Circulation
models
Regional
Mesoscale models
Watershed
Hydrologic Model
Climatological regional features:
• Spatial distribution of climatological
variables due to terrain and microclimate
• Special regional features
• Summer rainfall, snow
• Regional prevalent synoptic conditions
Climatological global circulation features:
• General climatology patterns ocean-land
• Pacific sea surface temperature and
relations to SW climatology
• Trade wind, atmospheric rivers etc.
• General climatology of temperature and
precip.
Watershed Hydrologic Model:
• Developed using local high resolution data
• Further refinement of microclimate features
• Interaction – surface –Groundwater
• Feedback with management decision
DOWNSCALE
INPUT
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Winter / Summer
Wet Medium Dry
Inter-arrival time of clusters
(Generalized Pareto)
Duration of clusters
(Weibull)
Chance for hour rainfall
Hourly rainfall magnitude
(Log normal)
Fall / S
prin
g
Rainfall Generator of Likely precipitation events Developed from Hourly precipitation data
100 realizations of likely scenariosEach realization is 60-year of hourly rainfall
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Regional Hydrological Modeling Framework
Groundwater Model [Microbasins]
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Aquifer Thresholds
Depth to Water (DTW)
7216 cells 660x660 ft
Q1
I1 Q2 = Q1-I1Santa Cruz River
ET1
P1
Buena Vista(2740 ac/ft)
Kino Springs(4020 ac/ft)
Highway 82(5910 ac/ft)
Guevavi7950 (ac/ft)
Q1
I1 Q2 = Q1-I1Santa Cruz River
ET1ET1
P1
Buena Vista(2740 ac/ft)
Kino Springs(4020 ac/ft)
Highway 82(5910 ac/ft)
Guevavi7950 (ac/ft)
Buena Vista
Kino Springs
Hy 82
Guevavi
Depth to Water (DTW) Thresholds
Average depth of water table from the
land surface
10 ft - Storage of ~ 4,000 ac-feet
20 ft - Storage of ~ 7,300 ac-feet
30 ft - Storage of ~ 11,000 ac-feet
Groundwater flow model of the Santa Cruz Active Management Area Microbasins
International Boundary to Nogales International Wastewater Treatment Plant Santa Cruz
County, Arizona ADWR –Modeling Report No. 15. Erwin 2007
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1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Years
Ra
infa
ll (m
m/S
ea
so
n)
MPI Summer [July-September]
Seasonal
10-Yr Moving Avg.
Tercile Boundaries
Regional climate model output
Rainfall Generation
Model for Future
Likely Scenarios
Hydrologic Projections
Historic Future
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Precipitation from Downscaled Regional
Climate Models UA Dept. Atmospheric Sciences
Dynamically (WRF) downscaled two climate models to 35 km2, 6-hour, 1950-2100, A2 emission
scenario (Middle of the road):
1. Hadley center (HADCAM3)
2. Max Planck Institute (MPI)
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
[NARCCAP] Multiple (6) models at 50km2 at 3hour resolution 1970-2000
and 2040-2070.
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Projected Changes in Wetness Categories
SUMMER
- 7 models indicate higher frequency of dry summer
- 6 models indicate lesser frequency of wet summer
WINTER
- 8 models indicate higher frequency of dryer winter
- 6 models indicate higher frequency of wet winter
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Clear reduction in Summer
Higher variability in Winter
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Years
Ra
infa
ll (m
m/S
ea
so
n)
MPI Summer [July-September]
Seasonal
10-Yr Moving Avg.
Tercile Boundaries
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 20800
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Years
Ra
infa
ll (m
m/S
ea
so
n)
MPI Winter [November-March]
Seasonal
10-Yr Moving Avg.
Tercile Boundaries
Climate Projection – Regional Climate Model WRF-Max Planck Institute model
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Modeling Framework for Water Resources
Planning
Rainfall Scenarios
Aquifer
(microbasins)
Management
schemes
Streamflow
Groundwater recharge
Aquifer Withdrawal
Pumpage
Groundwater Thresholds
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Microbasins
Potrero
Downstream
Arizona Department of Water Resources
Demand and Supply Assessment 1985-2025 Santa Cruz Active Management Area, July 2012 (DRAFT)
An
nu
al P
um
pin
g (
Acr
e-F
eet)
Projection
Municipal Pumpage Projection
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Rainfall Scenarios
Aquifer
(microbasins)
Management
schemes
Streamflow
Groundwater recharge
Pumpage
Groundwater Threshold
Historic & Future
Rainfall
Scenarios
Three Pumpage
goal Scenarios:
2000, 3000, and
5000 Acre-Feet
per year
3 – DTW
Thresholds:
10, 20 & 30 ft
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A Case Study
- Two rainfall input scenarios: Historic and Future - (an ensemble of 100 realizations of hourly record each
extends for 62 years)
- Three Depth to Water (DTW) threshold scenarios: 10ft, 20ft, and 30ft.
- Three Pumpage goal scenarios: 2000, 3000, and 5000 acre-feet per year
Total of 18 runs.
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HISTORIC
Threshold DTW 20 ft
Pumpage Goal 3000 ac-ft/yr
FUTURE
Threshold DTW 20 ft
Pumpage Goal 3000 ac-ft/yr
Range
:
2750-
1750
ac-
ft/yr
90%Time pumpage goal is Equal or Exceeded (%)
Case Study - Example Results100 realizations each 62-Year
90%Time pumpage goal is Equal or Exceeded (%)
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100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 00
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Percent of Time Equal or Exceeded
Mic
rob
asin
s R
elia
bili
ty o
f P
um
pa
ge
(A
c-f
t/yr)
Varied Depth To Water (DTW), Annual Pumpage 3000 ac-ft
HIST. DTW 10ft
HIST. DTW 20ft
HIST. DTW 30ft
FUTURE. DTW 10ft
FUTURE. DTW 20ft
FUTURE. DTW 30ft
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 00
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Percent of Time Equal or Exceeded
Mic
rob
asin
s R
elia
bili
ty o
f P
um
pa
ge
(A
c-f
t/yr)
Varied Depth To Water (DTW), Annual Pumpage 3000 ac-ft
HIST. DTW 10ft
HIST. DTW 20ft
HIST. DTW 30ft
FUTURE. DTW 10ft
FUTURE. DTW 20ft
FUTURE. DTW 30ft
Median Estimates
Percent of Time pumpage goal is Equal or Exceeded
Case Study Results: Pumpage Reliability
Percent of Time pumpage goal is Equal or Exceeded
95 Percentile Estimates
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100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 00
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Percent of Time Equal or Exceeded
Mic
rob
asin
s R
elia
bili
ty o
f P
um
pag
e (
Ac-f
t/yr)
Historical, Depth To Water 10ft, Annual Pumpage 2000 ac-ft
median
5 & 95 Percentiles0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Percent of Time Equal or Exceeded M
icro
basin
s D
eficit o
f P
um
pa
ge
(A
c-f
t/yr)
Historical, Depth To Water 10ft, Annual Pumpage 2000 ac-ft
median
5 & 95 Percentiles
Another Example for Results Interpretation
Statement II
20% of the years the pumpage deficit will exceed ~400
ac ft at the median or 800 ac-ft at the 95% confidence
interval.
Statement I
80% of the years the pumpage will exceed ~1550 ac-ft at
the median or 1200 ac-ft at the 95% confidence interval.
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Supply Reliability Considering 8 Regional Climate Models
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Cumulative 62-year water deficit [100 likely realizations]
Historic Data
Pumpage goal 3000 ac-ft/yr; DTW 20ft
Future Projection
Pumpage goal 3000 ac-ft/yr; DTW 20ft
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0 50 1000
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Cum
ula
tive D
eficit (
ac-f
t/62 y
r)
Pumpage 2000 ac-ft/yr
HIST. DTW 10ft
HIST. DTW 20ft
HIST. DTW 30ft
MPI FUTURE DTW 10ft
MPI FUTURE DTW 20ft
MPI FUTURE DTW 30ft
0 50 1000
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Cumulative Distribution
Pumpage 3000 ac-ft/yr
0 50 1000
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000Pumpage 5000 ac-ft/yr
Distribution of cumulative 62-year water deficit [18 case studies 100 realizations]
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1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Nogale
s F
low
(1000 A
cre
-feet)
Years
SUMMER [July-September]
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
WINTER [November-March]
Years
Nogale
s F
low
(1000 A
cre
-feet)
USGS Streamflow Gauge nr. Nogales, AZ
Avg.
7800 ac-ft
Avg.
7400
ac-ft
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1 90 180 270 360
10
50
100 95-Percentile Historical/Future Annual Pumpage 5000 ac-ft
Buena Vista
Hist. 10ft
Hist. 20ft
Hist. 30ft
WRF-MPI 10ft
WRF-MPI 20ft
WRF-MPI 30ft
1 90 180 270 360
10
50
100
Kino Spring
1 90 180 270 360
10
50
100
Hy 82
N
um
ber
of E
vents
with D
eficit L
onger
Than (
Counts
)
n Number of Days 1 90 180 270 360
10
50
100
Guevavi
Aquifers’ Recovery Duration Frequency
Num
ber
of E
vents
with D
eficit L
onger
Than (
count)
Number of Days
95-Percentile Historic/Future
Annual Pumpage goal 5000 ac-ft/year
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DTW 10ft DTW 20ft DTW 30ft0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Historical Precipitation 3000 ac-ft/yr
Buena Vista
Kino Springs
Hy 82
Guevavi
DTW 10ft DTW 20ft DTW 30ft0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Future Precipitation 3000 ac-ft/yr
P
erc
ent of T
ime M
icro
basin
s b
elo
w T
hre
shold
(fr
action)
Expected time for the microbasins to be below
Depth-to-Water Threshold
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Maximizing Water Consumption
Historic Future Projection
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Sharon Megdal, Susanna Eden and Jacob Prietto and Karletta
Chief. Water Resources Research Center University of
Arizona
Eylon Shamir, Konstantine Georgakakos and Nick Graham,
Hydrologic Research Center
Christopher Castro, Carlos Carrillo and Hsin-I Chang,
Atmospheric Science – University of Arizona
Keith Nelson, Frank Corkhill, Arizona Department of Water
Resources (ADWR)
Project’s Technical Advisory Committee: Mike Lacey
ADWR; Alejandro Barcenas City of Nogales; Greg
Kornrumph Salt River Project; and James Leenhouts, US
Geological Survey.
The GCASE Team