James Greyson 1 Last chance at the last minute? Making global whole systems change visible and possible ASSYST Florence mee4ng on 'Exploring the future in complex systems for decision‐making’ 13 th Feb 2012 If we do not change direc4on, we may end up where we are heading. Lao Tzu
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JamesGreyson 1
Lastchanceatthelastminute?Makingglobalwholesystemschangevisibleandpossible
ASSYSTFlorencemee4ngon'Exploringthefutureincomplexsystemsfordecision‐making’
13thFeb2012
Ifwedonotchangedirec4on,wemayendupwhereweareheading.LaoTzu
JamesGreyson 2
Arewemissingsomething?
Blindspotso Thegapbetweenproblems
andproblems‐actually‐solved.o Themassdelusionthat
solu4onsareunderway.
o Thecapacitytoreallymanageglobalcomplexity.
o Opportuni4esonthescaleofthegap.
JamesGreyson 3
Maywehaveanother40yearsplease?
1972Stockholmmee4ng;1stawarenessofglobalscaleproblemsRio+20isactuallyStockholm+40
o The‘solu4onspace’usedformajorglobalproblemshasn’tactuallysolvedanyofthem.
o Whatnow?
o Crossfingersandkeeptrying?
o Explorepossibili4esforsolu4onsonanewscaleofambi4on?
o Mapit.
JamesGreyson 4
Mappingthedefaultresponsetocomplexity
MichaelQuinnPa_on,DevelopmentalEvalua4on:applyingcomplexityconceptstoenhanceInnova4onandUse,chapter4.GuilfordPress,2011
o Comfortzone:predict,planandcontrol.
o Complexityzone:middleground(oreverywhere?)
o Outerzone:mayhem(or‘terraincognito’unexploredterritory?)
JamesGreyson 5
MassiveAvoidance…Why?
o ‘Herebedragons’.Aversionto‘terraincognito’.
o Psychology.Mentalmodelsshrinkoverwhelmingproblems.
o Moralretreat.Sharedfailuretoobigtoaccept.
o Control.Appealof‘manageable’subsystems.
o Planning.What’sourremit?Whatseemsrealis4c?
o Habit.Reduc4onistculture,educa4on,jobsandmedia.
o Lock‐in.Pastfailureofreduc4onismironicallymakesproblemsseemtoobigandhardtoconsiderasawhole.
o Blindspot.Can’tseeanotherway=nootherway.
JamesGreyson 6
Subsystemandwholesystemapproaches
A:systema;c B:systemic
Focusonsubsystemsdefinedbytopics(suchasclimateorfood),sectors(suchasenergyorfinance)orphysicalareasofinterest(suchasacommunityorregion).
Focusonwholesystemnotsubsystems.
Globalcomplexityismanageableassubsystems.
Globalcomplexityismanageableasanindivisiblewhole.
Manageviareducing(disregarding)complexity.
Manageviatheconnectednessofcomplexity.
Progressasgradualincrementalchangealongalineartrajectory.
Progressaschangeofparadigms.
JamesGreyson 7
Mappingdualapproachestocomplexity
o Zoneofcomplexityiseverywhere.
o ZoneAconsidersselectedcomplexitywithinsubsystems.
o ZoneB,wholesystemzoneconsidersallcomplexity.
o ZoneBisinvisiblefromZoneA,“it’schaosoutthere!”
o Zonesarecomfortzonesfordialogue,ontology,problem‐solving…
NoneComplexityconsidered100%
Non
eChangeconsidered
10
0%
ZoneA.Defaultapproach(managingsubsystemssystema4cally)
ZoneB.Newapproach
Scep4cscorner
JamesGreyson 8
Hidingwholesystemchangewithlabels
NoneComplexityconsidered100%
Non
eChangeconsidered
10
0%
ZoneA.Systema4cchange
ZoneB.Systemicchange
o Chao4co Unknowable
o Unquan4fiable
o Unpredictable
o Unmanageable
o Abstracttheory
o Idealis4c
o Overwhelming
o Someoneelse’sproblem
o Really?
o Controllableo Knowable
o Quan4fiable
o Predictable
o Manageable
o Tangible
o Realis4c
o Doable
o Everyone’sac4onsadduptobigchange.
o Really?
JamesGreyson 9
Howtomanageanirreducibleworld?
o Asystemic(non‐reduc4onist)approachbasedinzoneB.
o Thepuzzle:everythingisconnectedtoeverythingelse.
o Usethisconnectednesstoleveragechange.
o Seekleverage‘whereasmallshisinonethingcanproducebigchangesineverything’.DonellaMeadows,LeveragePoints,1999
JamesGreyson 10
Leversarebuiltintosystems
o Pa_ernsofconnectednessshapeoutcomesevenifwedon’tseethem.
o Newpa_ernsofconnectednessofferpoten4alevolu4onsofsystems,evenifwedon’tusethem.
o “Systemscanbeunderstoodbylookingforpa_ernswithintheircomplexity,pa_ernsthatdescribepoten4alevolu4onsofthesystem.”Dooley,K.(1996),“ANominalDefini4onofComplexAdap4veSystems,”TheChaosNetwork,8(1):2‐3.h_p://www.public.asu.edu/~kdooley/papers/casdef.PDF
JamesGreyson 11
Wholesystemlevers
o Leverslinktoreal‐worldoutcomes.o Leversareconnected,asinalock,so
theycanonlymovetogether.o Levershave3posi4ons;default,secure,
broken.o Defaultposi4on:movementiswithin
subsystems,leversunmoved.o Secureposi4on:lever4ltedinopposite
direc4onfromdefault.o Broken:toolate.Irreversiblefailurewith
anyfacetofsecurity.o Ashisfromdefaulttosecurecould
avoida‘brokencivilisa4on’.
JamesGreyson 12
Howtospotglobalwholesystemlevers?
o Leversaremechanismsforplanet‐scalesystemicchange.
o Leverscreatechangeacrossissues,sectorsandlevels.Thechangeisemergent,cascadingandself‐organising.Noplan,notargets,nocentralcontrol.
o Lever=ambi4on+worldview+policy+mechanismtoimplement.
o Apparentconflictsbetweenselfishsubsystemgoalsareresolvedbysynergiesandmergedgoals(globalsecurity).
o Lever‘opera4ngposi4ons’arebinary.EgNatureeithershrinksorexpands.Systemic‘game‐change’isdiametricalandinstant.Systema4cchangeisincrementalandslow.
o References:Meadows1999,LeveragePoints.Greyson2008,Systemiceconomicinstrumentsforenergy,climateandglobalsecurity.
JamesGreyson 13
Sevenpolicyswitchesforglobalsecurity
1. Development=whole‐systemimprovementnotless‐bad.2. Learningledbycuriositynotprogramming.
3. Buildingnotconsumingthebasisforeconomicgrowth.
4. GDPthatreversesmacro‐incen4vesforconflict.
5. Ownershiptoincludeguardianship.WebelongtoEarth.
6. Stockofsurpluswealthrecruitedintostockpileofproblems.
7. Monetaryliquiditysuppliedbypublicbodiesnotprivatebanks.
o BasedonNATO‐publishedresearchfromtwoAdvancedResearchWorkshops.o Interna4onalacademicpeer‐review.Read>5k4mes.Discussion>3kcomments.Webthinktank>550people.o Policyswitchesareleversforglobalwholesystemchange.o Allareneededtosolveanymajorproblem.
JamesGreyson 14
Fromhoppingtorunning;afuturethatdoesn’tfallover
o Subsystemandwholesystemmethodsarelikefeet.Useboth.
o ‘Inthebroaderperspec4veofthesystemsapproachnoproblemcanbesolvedsimplyonitsownbasis.Everyproblemhasanenvironment,towhichitisinextricablyunited.’CWestChurchman
o Everysubsystemhasaglobalwholesystemtowhichitisinextricablylinked.
JamesGreyson 15
1969:‘Whatwouldbethetrueprogressofmanifhungerandwarpersists?’
TheGuardiannewspaperJuly21st1969
o Foodsecurityinvolvessolu4onsbothwithinandbeyondthefoodsubsystem.o Possibletoendhungerwithoutregenera4ngsoils,ecosystems,economies…?
o Na4onalsecurityinvolvessolu4onsbothwithinandbeyondthedefensesubsystem.o Possibletoachievesecurityanywherewithoutglobalsecurity?o Risingdefensespending=fallingsecurity.
JamesGreyson 16
TheGuardianJune25th1988
o Climateinstabilityisasystemicproblemwithsubsystemresponses.o Runawaychangecouldprecedeaneffec4veresponse.o ResponsessofarcomefromZoneA.‘Let’sfocusoncarbon.’‘Let’saimforwhatseemsrealis4c.’o TheZoneBsystemicresponseisyettobegin.
JamesGreyson 17
Day1ofaneffec4veresponse:frametheproblem
o ZoneAfocusoncuyngconcentra4onsnotjustemissions.Reverselossofsinks.
o ZoneBfocusonclimateassymptomofmul4‐issuedynamic.Fixthewhole.
o Egreshapetheglobaleconomy:h_p://climatecolab.org/web/guest/plans/‐/plans/contestId/4/planId/15101
o EgRevivesoils,ecosystems,climateandeconomiesbyreversinglinearcarbonflows:h_p://climatecolab.org/web/guest/plans/‐/plans/contestId/4/planId/14637
Climateisanout‐of‐the‐boxproblem
JamesGreyson 18
References
o ‘Weneedtoadvanceinamanagedway.Wetakeoneblockata4me.Otherwisewewillproducechaos.’h_p://www.environmentalgovernance.org/video/2010/05/quest‐for‐leadership/videoat12:45mins
o ‘Togethertheswitchesdefineaprac4calstrategyforglobalsecurity,foraseriousa_emptatrevivalofco‐opera4on,ecosystemsandprosperity.’Greyson2010,SevenPolicySwitchesforGlobalSecurity.NATOScienceProgramme.ISBN9048195675h_p://bit.ly/7switches
o ‘Energysecurity,climatestability,sustainabledevelopment,economicgrowthandna4onalsecurityarecodependentgoals;eitherallwillbeachievedornone.’Greyson2008,SystemicEconomicInstrumentsforEnergy,ClimateandGlobalSecurity.NATOScienceProgramme.ISBN9781402084928h_p://bit.ly/systemic
o ‘AnOutOfParadigmSpace(OOPS)todiscussop4onsthathaven’tbeenconsideredsimplybecausetheydidn’tfitintheprevailingsharedmentalmodels.’EarthSystemsGovernanceOp‐Ed.h_p://www.ieg.earthsystemgovernance.org/news/2011‐08‐19/interna4onal‐environmental‐governance‐paradigm‐governance
JamesGreyson 19
Thankyou!
o Endoftalko Remainingslidesoutlinethe7policyswitches
o Ques4ons,cri4cisms,[email protected]
JamesGreyson 20
“The view that negative impacts are an inevitable consequence of development has blinded us to the obvious. We could design development to increase the size, health and resilience of natural systems, while improving human health and life quality.”
Prof Janis Birkeland
Positive Development. Earthscan 2008 My proposed economic tool is on page 339
Policyswitch1:Less bad is not good enough
JamesGreyson 21
Policyswitch2:frompredeterminedtocuriosity‐ledlearning
o Howtoderail‘tram‐line’herdthinking?
o Curiosityisamissingingredientinbotheduca4onandpolicy‐making.
o “Whatwewanttoseeisthechildinpursuitofknowledgeandnotknowledgeinpursuitofthechild.”GeorgeBernardShaw
o Joined‐uplearningenablesjoined‐upengagedgroups/communi4es/society.
JamesGreyson 22
“Our enormously productive economy demands that we make consumption our way of life, that we convert the buying and use of goods into rituals, that we seek our spiritual satisfaction in consumption patterns. We need things consumed, burned up, replaced and discarded at an ever accelerating rate.”
Victor Lebow ‘Price Competition in 1955’, Journal of Retailing. USA, Spring 1955. Page 7
Policyswitch3:fromconsumingtobuildingthebasisforeconomicgrowthandwell‐being
JamesGreyson 23
Whatshapeistheeconomyin?
It’s the end of the line for linear growth. The future for growth is circular economics.
JamesGreyson 24
‘Insuring’afutureforproducts,business,economyandplanet
o Waste,toxics,pollu4onandGHGshouldnolongerbe‘managed’attheendofthepipe,whenit’stoolate.Everyphysicalproductthatissoldshouldbeinsuredtoaccountfortheriskofaddingtowastelevelsinecosystems.
o ‘Precyclingpremiums’forallproducts,largeandsmall,couldquicklyphaseoutwaste‐dependenceeverywhere.Arevivaloftheeconomy,ecosystemsandco‐opera4onwouldbecomeviable.
o Premiumswouldbepaidaccordingto‘wasterisk’.Premiumswouldbeinvestedtocutwasteriskbysuppor4ngprecycling,buildingtechnical,socialandecologicalcapacity.
o Producerscouldchoosehowtohandletheirresponsibility.Theycouldcuttheirpremiumsbyprecyclingornotbotherandpaymoretosupportprecyclingelsewhere.Customersandinvestorscouldchoose.
JamesGreyson 25
Policyswitch4:reverseanunintendedmacro‐economicincen4veforconflict
o Poli4cianscanboostGDPbyhigherrelianceonarmedthreat.
o Thisdrivesthearmsraceandglobalinsecurity.Yetmilitarysecurityis‘notforsale’.
o GrossPeacefulProductsimplyomitsweapons‐relatedtransac4ons.
o GPPmakesna4onalsecurityaffordableandsupportsacycleofnon‐comba4veproblem‐solving.
JamesGreyson 26
Policyswitch5:includingguardianshipwithinownershipoftheEarth
o Ecosystemservices,biodiversityandresourcelevelsareindecline.
o Howto‘value’naturewithoutcommodifying?Indigenousvsmodernviewsofbelonging.
o ReinterpretownershipoftheEarthtoincludeadutyofguardianshiponbehalfoffuturegenera4ons.
o Reversinglossofnaturalcapitalunderpinsrevivalsofeconomyandcoopera4on.
JamesGreyson 27
Policyswitch6:recruitsurpluswealthtofixaccumulatedecological,socialandfinancialdebts
o Thestockoflegacyproblemsobstructsglobalsecurityandposi4vefeedbackswouldwipeoutprospectsandwealth.
o Theworld’smega‐richcaninvestinaworldwheremoneycon4nuestohavemeaningandvalue.
o Massivepeer‐ledself‐organisedphilanthropy.
o Incen4visewith‘potlatch’styleculturalstatus,landtaxandopeningoftax‐havens.
What if the 10,000 richest people in the world would do what I did? Doug Tompkins
JamesGreyson 28
Policyswitch7:harvestthe‘moneytree’forpublicratherthanprivatebenefit
o Mostmoneyiscreatedby‘frac4onalbanking’–repeatedrelendingofdeposits.Moneyiscreatedprivatelyasdebt.
o “Theprivilegeofcrea4ngandissuingmoneyisnotonlythesupremepreroga4veofgovernment,butitisthegovernment’sgreatestcrea4veopportunity.”AbrahamLincoln,1865
o ‘Quan4ta4veeasing’ismodernpublicmoneycrea4on(thoughcurrentlymisdirectedtoreinflateassetpricesandbail‐outbanklosses).
o Createmoneyforpublicbenefitcentrallyandlocallythenspendintotheeconomy.Posi4vedevelopmentethosprovides‘backing’oflas4ngvalueandmeaning.
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