Green Leaders Forum #3 Presentation: Dr. Junichi Fujino, NIES

Shuzo.NishiokaJunichi

Fujino

MikikoKainuma

Scenarios for a low carbon society (LCS) in Japan in 2050 Junichi Fujino (NIES)

日中低炭素セミナー 2010

NIES has coordinated this Japan LCS research projectduring FY2004-2008 in collaboration with around 60 researchers from Tokyo Univ, Kyoto Univ, TIT, TSU,Forest Research Institute, etc.

WHAT IS A LOW CARBON SOCIETY?

Takes actions that are compatible with the principles of sustainable development, ensuring that the development needs of all groups within society are met

Makes an equitable contribution towards the global effort to stabilise atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases at a level that will avoid dangerous climate change through deep cuts in global emissions

Demonstrates high levels of energy efficiency and uses low carbon energy sources and production technologies

Adopts patterns of consumption and behaviour that are consistent with low level of greenhouse gas emissions

From the executive summary of the first Japan-UK LCS workshop (2006)

1st WSExecutive Summary

2020 20502000

Long-te

rm ta

rget y

ear

Rele

ase

of

AIM

resu

lt

Technology development,socio-economic change projected by historically trend

Forecasting

Back-casting

Normative target world

Reference future world

Service demand change

by changing social behavior,

lifestyles and institutions

Mitigation Technology

developmentRequired Policy intervention and Investment

required intervention policy and measures

En

vir

on

men

tal p

ress

ure

Check

ing

year(2

01

5)

Check

ing

year(2

02

5)

Req

uir

ed

in

terv

en

tion

3. We need“Innovation”

to realize visions

2. We need“Visions”

1.”Target” is tough

50% reductionsIn the world

Backcasting is necessary to design sustainable low-carbon societies

Green buildingsSelf-sustained city

Decentralized services

Eco awarenessEffective communication

Dematerialization

Next generation vehiclesEfficient transportation system

Advanced logistics

1990

2000

2020

2050

2010

BaU scenario

Interventionscenario

EE improvement

New energy

Energy saving

Structure change

Life-stylechange

Tech. innovation

Urban structure IT-society

Techno-Socio Innovation Study

GHG reduction target（ eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level ）

Evaluate feasibility of GHG reduction target

Long-termScenario

DevelopmentStudy

Develop socio-economic scenario, evaluate counter-measures using econ-techno models G

HG

em

issi

on

Middle-termTarget year

Loge-termTarget year

Transportation system

-1

135

Valid

Equity

Suitable

Effective

ReductionTarget study

Study environmental options toward low carbon society in Japan

Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050

Advisory board ： advice

to project

60 Researchers

Propose the direction of long-term global warming policy

[FY2004-2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ]

J apanLow Carbon

Society 2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp

Japan LCS research project and CC policy

0. FY1990- start AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) project FY1997 AIM provided Kyoto Protocol simulations for Japan FY2000 AIM provided IPCC SRES/A1B marker scenario

1. Feb 13th 2007, Interim Report “Japan Scenarios torwards Low-Carbon Society (LCS) -Feasibility study for 70% CO2 emission reduction by 2050 below 1990 level-”

May 24th 2007 Former Prime Minister Abe launched “Cool Earth 50” to reduce 50% GHG emissions by 2050

June 9th 2008 Former Prime Minister Fukuda set the target of Japanese CO2 emissions reduction by 60-80% in 2050

2. May 22nd 2008, Interim Report “Dozen Actions towards LCSs” July 29th 2008 Japanese government set “Action Plan for Achieving a

Low-carbon Society”

3. April 2009, The Mid-term Target Committee, “six options for 2020” (including 7%, 15%, 25% reduction compared as 1990 level)

September 22nd 2009, New Prime Minister Hatoyama set the target as 25% for 2020.

AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling) for Japan LCS scenarios

Energy supply & demand

：Model

：Output of model

Macroeconomy

Stock Activity

Populationand

householdmodel

Residentialsector

Commercialsector

Transpor-tationsector

Industrialsector

Energybalance

table

Pop

ulat

ion

Labo

r

Service

Mat

eria

l sto

ck &

flow

mod

el

Energy supplysector E

nerg

ysu

pply

m

odel

Efficiency

Bui

ldin

g d

ynam

ic m

odel

Env

iron

men

tal o

ptio

n da

taba

se, B

otto

m-u

p en

gine

erin

g m

odel

Passenger Trns.demand model

Freight Trns.demand model

Inte

r-se

ctor

and

mac

ro e

cono

mic

mod

el

Household Prd.& lifestyle model

Residential energyservice model

Commercial energyservice model

Industrial production model

Stock

Preference of household

Production amount

Investment

EnergySnapshot

Tool：Data flow Check consistency!Backcast

Model

7

Socio-Economic Scenarios in Japan, 2050

Population Mil. 127 94 (74%) 100 (79%)

Household Mil. 47 43 (92%) 42 (90%)

Average number of person

per household2.7 2.2 2.4

GDP Tril.J PY 519 1,080 (208%) 701 (135%)Share of production primary % 2% 1% 2% secondary % 28% 18% 20% tertiary % 71% 80% 79%

Offi ce floor space Mil.m2 1654 1,934 (117%) 1,718 (104%)

Building dynamics Model &

Inter- sector and Macro

Economic Model

Travel Passenger volume bill. p・km 1,297 1045 (81%) 963 (74%) Private car % 53% 32% 51% Public transport % 34% 52% 38% Walk/bycycle % 7% 7% 8%

Freight transport volume bill. t・km 570 608 (107%) 490 (86%)

100 126 (126%) 90 (90%)

Steel production Mil.t 107 67 (63%) 58 (54%)

Etylen production Mil.t 8 5 (60%) 3 (40%)

Cement production Mil.t 82 51 (62%) 47 (57%)

Paper production Mil.t 32 18 (57%) 26 (81%)

( %) is a percentage compared with year 2000

year unit 2000A B

Inter- sector and Macro

Economic Model

model

Population and Household

model

Inter- sector and Macro

Economic Model

Transportation demand

model & Inter- sector and

Macro Economic Model

Industrial production index

2050

7

80.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

CO

P (

Coe

ffici

ent

of p

erfo

rman

ce)

Best

Average

Worst

Historical

Projected energy efficiency improvement: Air-conditioners for cooling and heating

AIST

MOE

METI METI

Energy efficiency improvement has been encouraged by Top Runner Program.

Innovations

17

12

23

9

3 43 4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2050A 2050B

En

erg

y C

on

sum

ptio

n (

Mto

e)

Change of the numbersof householdsChange of servicedemand per householdChange of servicedemand per householdImprovement of energyefficiencyElectricity consumption

H2 consumption

Solar consumption

Biomass consumption

Gas consumption

Oil consumption

Energy consumption in2000

Residential sector Energy reduction potential: 40-50%

Hi-Insulated housing

Energy Effiency

Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and BChange of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per householdChange of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS) Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power

Innovations

Seconday Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

Industrial Residential Commercial

Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg.

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

2000(Actual)

2050(Scenario A)

2050(Scenario B)

Industrial Residential Commercial Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg.

Decrease of energy demand

Trans. Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans. Frg.: Transportation (Freight)

40% demand reductions

Coal Oil Gas

Biomass

Nuclear

Solar and Wind

100 200 300 400 500 600

2000(Actural)

2050(Scenario A)

2050(Scenario B)

Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Solar and Wind

low-carbon energy

70% CO2 cutby 2050

70%

redu

ction

6

21

90

36

77

61

24

10

13

38

97

28

17

41

36CCS

Carbon CaptureStorage

Change of activity

1990

CO

2 Em

issi

on

2000

CO

2 Em

issi

on

2050

CO

2 Em

issi

on

Change of activity

Impr

ovem

ent o

f ca

rbon

inte

nsity

of

ene

rgy

supp

ly

Impr

ovem

ent o

f ca

rbon

inte

nsity

of

end

-use

Impr

ovem

ent o

f en

ergy

inte

nsity

of

end

-use

Redu

ction

of

dem

and

Ener

gy d

eman

dse

ctor

Ener

gy s

uppl

y se

ctor

Indu

stry

Tran

spor

tatio

nRe

side

ntial

&

com

mer

cial

Ener

gy s

uppl

y

Reduction of service demandImprovement ofenergy intensityImprovement ofcarbon intensity

Reduction of service demand

Reduction of service demand

Improvement ofenergy intensity

Improvement ofenergy intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・High economic growth, Increase of service demand per household, Increase of office floor (increase)

・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease)

・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas

・Insulation・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)・Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater,

Efficient lighting equipment・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All-electric house・Photovoltaic

・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function・Modal shift to public transportation service・Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such as

electric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle・High efficiency freight vehicle・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)

・Power generation without CO2 emission・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission

・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy

・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply

・Farm products produced and consumed in season

GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario A: Vivid Techno-driven SocietyDemand side energy -40% ＋　 Low carbonization of primary energy ＋ＣＣＳwith moderate cost of technological options as 0.3% of GDP in the year of 2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2

emis

sion

s [M

tC]

-70% to 1990

1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment

2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances

3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food

4. Sustainable Building Materials5. Environmentally Enlightened

Business and Industry6. Swift and Smooth Logistics7. Pedestrian Friendly City

Design8. Low-Carbon Electricity9. Local Renewable Resources

for Local Demand10. Next Generation Fuels11. Labeling to Encourage Smart

and Rational Choices12. Low-Carbon Society

Leadership

A Dozen Actions

Residential/commercial

Industrial

Transportation

Energy supply

Cross-sector

A dozen actions make it possibleto reduce 70% CO2 emissions by 2050

Japan

Japan

13

How to achieve Low-Carbon Life?

Popularization of Environment buildings

NavigationSystem

Support for live

Efficiency Improvement

Construction Skills Design Skills

Communization and Standardization of technical know-howTax benefits for aggressive company for LCS Building

Obligation and regulation

LC-Life

Eco-Labeling

Support for Choice

Financing

Tax benefits, subsidy, reimburse

Support for Purchase

Transition to service Consumption lifestyle

Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Applicances

Action 2

Comfortable and GreenBuilt Environment

Action 1

Policy

PolicyPolicy

5 yrs5 yrs

30 yrs

14

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Add

ition

al in

vest

men

t [Tr

il. JP

Y]

Ene: Fuel savingEne: Additional fixed investmentTrp: Fuel savingTrp: Additional fixed investmentInd: Fuel savingInd: Additional fixed investmentRes: Fuel savingRes: Additional fixed investmentTotal

Scenario AEarly Investmentcan reduce cost and enhance energy efficiency of countermeasures

and gain multi-benefits e.g. energy securitybusiness powercomfortable live spacewalkable city, happy life!

Backcasting model can show optimized pathways towards LCS

Japan

Funded by Ministry of Environment, Japan and NIES

GH

G e

mis

sion

s pe

r cap

ita

High CarbonLocked in Society

Low Carbon Locked in Society

Development of Asia LCS Scenarios

Policy Packages for Asia LCS

Low Carbon Society

Backcasting

Leapfrog-Development

How to reach to Low Carbon Society in Asia ?

High Carbon Locked-in type Development

Climate catastrophe:Significant Damage to Economy and Eco- System

Time

　 (1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS　 (2) Quantifying future LCS visions　 (3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting

16

Low-Carbon Scenarios forcountries and sub-countries in Asian

http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS

17

Do we really succeed to explain necessity of low-carbon society?

• Avoid energy resource battles by using resources in efficient ways

• Develop many innovations to support global sustainable development

• Build well-designed city for comfortable and friendly transportation, living, offices, amusement space in energy-saving/ renewable energy rich way…

Good entrance point to climb up the mountain “happy, challengeable and sustainable society”

We need good scientific findings to innovate systems to pledge people’s activities for LCS

18181818

GHG Mitigation (ktCO2eq) As of 27 March 2009

[Trans] freight car (change of ownership from private to commercial)

[Residential] Energy efficiency improvement of air conditioners

[Residential] Energy efficiency improvement of lights

[Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of air conditioners

[Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of lights

[Agriculture] Energy efficiency improvement and saving in use

[Industry] Measures in the Petrochemical industry

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

-20,000

-40,000

0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000 240,000 280,000 320,000 360,000 400,000

[Residential] HEMS

[Trans] Clean Diesel

Alternative energy [Industry]

Energy efficient appliances [Residential]

Solar heater [Residential]

Cross-sectoral technologies [Industry]

PV [Commercial][Commercial] BEMS

・

[Trans] Energy efficiency improvement of ships, rails and air

[Transport] Bionergy

[Agriculture] Energy efficiency improvement and saving in use

[Transport] Measures to reduce service demands

[Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of motors

Measures in F-gases

[Wastes] Measures in the waste sector

[Residential] PV

[Residential] High efficient water supply

[Trans] Conversion to electric vehicles

[Residential] Insulation[Agriculture] Process improvement of domestic animal excrement, reduction of manure

[Trans] Efficiency improvement[Commercial] Insulation

[Trans] Highbrid[Industry] Innovative processes

[Industry] High efficient power generation

[Industry] Energy saving and recovery

[Commercial] High efficient water supply

Marginal Abatement Cost to Reduce GHG emissions

in 2020 (Case III)

Miti

gatio

n co

sts

(Yen

/ktC

O2)

： Industry

： Commercial

： Agriculture

： Wastes

： F-Gas

： Residential

： Transportation

Japan

20

Further Information:Japan Scenarios and Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies (LCSs) (2008.6)

Special Issue on “Modelling Long- Term Scenarios for Low-Carbon Societies” CLIMATE POLICY 8 (2008)

Call for Action and Executive Summary of the Third Workshop of Japan-UK Joint Research Project on “a Sustainable Low-Carbon Society” (2008.3)

All materials can be downloaded at the“Japan Low-Carbon Society 2050” homepage: http://2050.nies.go.jp

JapanLow CarbonSociety 2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp

Contact person: Junichi Fujino ([email protected])

21

22

Depicting socio-

economic visions in 2050

Estimating energy service

demands

Exploring innovations for energy demands

and energy supplies

Quantifying energy

demand and supply to estimate

CO2 emissions

Checking potentials for energy

supply

Achieving energy-related CO2

emissions target

Step4

Scenario Approach to Develop Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS)

Step1

Step2

Step3

Step5

23

Vision A Vision B

Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production /recycle

Self-sufficientProduce locally, consume locally

Comfortable and Convenient

Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth

1%/yr GDP per capita growth

Visions we prepared two different

but likely future societies for Japan

Akemi Imagawa

To achieve the 70% reduction goal by 2050, we investigated - which options should be selected,- when options should be introduced,- how much of each option should be introduced at each

stage,with reference of candidate options as prepared.

Current society

Economic activityCO2 Emission

2000 2050

CO2

CO2

Low carbon society

Economicactivity

CO2

BaU society

70% reductiontarget

Technology, infrastructure,

institution, management options

Economic activity

Actions

ActionsActions

2050 Society

1. Comfortable and Green Built EnvironmentEfficiently use of sunlight and energy efficient built environment design. Intelligent buildings.

2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances Use of Top-runner and Appropriate appliances. Initial cost reduction by rent and release system resulting in improved availability.

3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food Supply of seasonal and safe low-carbon local foods for local cuisine

4. Sustainable Building Materials Using local and renewable buildings materials and products.

5. Environmentally Enlightened Business and Industry Businesses aiming at creating and operating in low carbon market. Supplying low carbon and high value-added goods and services through energy efficient production systems.

12. Low-Carbon Society Leadership Human resource development for building “Low-Carbon Society” and recognizing extraordinary contributions.

6. Swift and Smooth LogisticsNetworking seamless logistics systems with supply chain management, using both transportation and ICT infrastructure

7. Pedestrian Friendly City Design City design requiring short trips and pedestrian (and bicycle) friendly transport, augmented by efficient public transport

8. Low-Carbon Electricity Supplying low carbon electricity by large-scale renewables, nuclear power and CCS-equipped fossil (and biomass) fired plants

9. Local Renewable Resources for Local Demand Enhancing local renewables use, such as solar, wind, biomass and others.

10. Next Generation Fuels Development of carbon free hydrogen- and/or biomass-based energy supply system with required infrastructure

11. Labeling to Encourage Smart and Rational Choices Visualizing of energy use and CO2 costs information for smart choices of low carbon goods and service by consumers, and public acknowledgement of such consumers

A Dozen Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies Residential/commercial sector actions

Industrial sector actions

Transportation sector actions

Cross-sector actions

Energy supply sector actions

Press release on May 22, 2008

1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment

Selection of residential buildings with high environmental efficiency. Commission of low carbon design to architects and construction companies.

Contribution of Building Owners

Development of low carbon architectural design methods. Investing for technology development in insulation technologies, etc. Sustenance of regional worker skills.

Contribution of Architects, etc.

Complex energy-saving performance metrics, high calculation costs, insufficient personnel

Complex energy-saving performance metrics, high calculation costs, insufficient personnel

Insufficient incentives for choosing energy-saving residences and buildings

Insufficient incentives for choosing energy-saving residences and buildings

Residential household energy demand：-40% (from FY2000 level)Building floor area energy demand：-40% (from FY2000 level)

Residential household energy demand：-40% (from FY2000 level)Building floor area energy demand：-40% (from FY2000 level)

Dissemination of diagnosis practitioners for energy-saving and CO2 reduction efficiencies

Organizing training classes and events for passing on knowledge of architectural technologies

Establishment and review of long-term energy-saving standard targets for buildings.

Introduction and expansion of residence and building labeling system for environmental efficiency (new building, renovation, mandatory indication upon leasing)

Barriers

Environmental Efficiency Labeling Introduction PeriodStandardization Period

Establishment of simplified evaluation method for environmental efficiency of residences and buildings

Implementation and expansion of tax breaks and low interest loan financing based on the environmental efficiency label

Solar and wind utilization design

Finance-friendly environmental

efficiency

Nurturing of worker skills & information

transmission

Future Objectives

2010 2020 2030 2040 20502000

BarriersFuture

Objectives

Example to translate model results into policy actions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2

emis

sion

s [M

tC]

80% in 2050

Japanese Emissions Targets towards 2050

Jump

Step

25% in 2020(incl. credit? ）

HopKyoto Protocol during 2008-2012 (Sink 3.8%, credit 1.6 %)

Japan

Japan

New Prime MinisterHatoyama　鳩山由紀夫

Expectations on LCS-RNet: “How to deploy LCS study to real world?”

Research members

Application and development to actual LCS processes

Development and maintenance of study tools/models

Each country’s domestic/ local research institute

Policy makers

Central/ regional

government managers

NGOs

Proposal/ collaborative activity on LCS scenario and roadmap makng

Request of more practical, realistic roadmaps and also tractable tools for real world

Even we understand the necessity of low-carbon society…

• Difficult to have global agreement: COP15• Difficult to change and find easy solutions• Huge cost? Huge economic impact

(lower income, higher unemployment rate, lower GDP growth rate)?

日本政府中期目標達成分析タスクフォース１．モデル分析を行う研究機関国立環境研究所（増井利彦　社会環境 研究領域統合評価研究室 室長　　ｼｽﾃﾑ

　　他（藤野純一、肱岡靖明、花岡達也）） - AIM/Enduse[Global] モデル ( 世界モデル ) - AIM/Enduse[Japan] モデル（日本モデル） - AIM/CGE[Japan] モデル（経済モデル）地球環境産業技術研究機構（秋元圭吾　 研究 　他）ｼｽﾃﾑ ｸﾞﾙｰﾌﾟ ｸﾞﾙｰﾌﾟﾘｰﾀﾞｰ - RITE モデル（ DNE21 ＋）（世界モデル）日本エネルギー経済研究所（伊藤浩吉　常務理事　他） - エネ研モデル（日本モデル）日本経済研究センター（猿山純夫　研究統括部　担当部長　他） - 日経センター・一般均衡モデル（経済モデル） - 日経センター・マクロモデル（経済モデル）慶應義塾大学産業研究所（野村浩二　商学部教授） - ＫＥＯモデル（経済モデル）２．モデル分析を評価する有識者 有村　俊秀　　上智大学経済学部経済学科准教授 飯田　哲也　　環境エネルギー政策研究所所長◎ 植田　和弘　　京都大学大学院経済学研究科教授 栗山　浩一　　京都大学農学研究科生物資源経済学専攻教授 土居　丈朗　　慶應義塾大学経済学部教授 屋井　鉄雄　　東京工業大学大学院総合理工学研究科教授 山口　光恒　　東京大学先端科学技術研究センター特任教授

5 research teams

7 experts

Identification of necessary actions

Diffusion of green design building

Certification & registration of labeling

Incentives to the higher performance building

Organizing training classes and events

Establishment of simplified evaluation

method

dissemination of diagnosis practitioners

Lack in information of environmental performance of the building

Relatively high cost compared to general building

Lack in knowledge of regional specific climatic conditions

Too complicated calculation required

Lack in personnel who can implement

the calculation

Indirect options

Direct options

Barrier breaking

Step by step strategiesStep by step strategies

Let’s innovate good evidence!

Junichi Fujino

[email protected]

20091213-City Center, Copenhagen