Green Energy from Heat Applying Thermo Electric Generation (TEG) Jamie Yang, 2009 [email protected] Linkedin Profile
Jun 03, 2015
Green Energy from HeatApplying Thermo Electric Generation (TEG)
Jamie Yang, [email protected]
Linkedin Profile
Driving Forces System Block TEG Applications Business Model Market Analysis and Potentiality Strategy (Operation and
Manufacturing) Appendix
Outline
Fuel is limited and price high Alternative energy is on trend Too much waste heat Earth is getting hot Montreal sunset regulation on Freon Kyoto Protocol
Driving Forces
Thermo Electric Generation - TEG TEG Hot-Side : be attached to heat sources TEG Cold-Side : liquid cooling system
System Function Block
Heat A
bso
rber
TEGHeat
Liquid
Coolin
g
Balance and Charger
AC
Pow
er
DC
Pow
er
Function Block Diagram
Heat Sources Inve
rter
Battery Array
Waste Heat Recycling Geothermal Application Roof-top Solar Heat Application
TEG Applications
Potential Customers
Device Makers- Steel facility maker- Arc furnace maker- Boiler/Steam Turbine maker
System Installer- Incinerator Installer- Geothermal Power Plant Installer- Solar PV and CPV System Installer
Business Model
Raw Material
Powder Metallurgy
… Module Assembly
Covered by TEG module Maker
A
B System Design
(Charger/Battery/Inverter) Construction & Installation
A Mount TEG modules on Specific Devices
Covered by Device Maker
B
Covered by System Integrator
Business Model
Waste Heat Recycling Geothermal Electricity Solar PV TEG Prospective Life Cycle System Integrator Key success factor Entry barrier SWOT 4P
Market Analysis and Potentiality
Market Analysis and Potentiality – Waste Heat Recycling
• Incinerator• Plant Waste Heat * not counted in
Global Waste Incineration Capacity
Type Year 1997 2007 2008 2013
Municipal 160 200 210 240
Industrial*1 800 1000 1050 1200
TEG Q’ty *2
2008 2013
100 M sets
500 M sets
Unit : Million ton per year
Source : The Worldwide Market for Waste Incineration Plants, ecoprog 2008 Note : *1. Industrial number was estimated by 5x of municipal quantity *2. The detailed estimation for TEG quantity, please refer to appendix
Source : IGA (International Geothermal Association) Electricity Statistic, 2008See Appendix for detail
Market Analysis and Potentiality – Geothermal Electricity
Type Year
2005 2010
MWe *2 9,064 12,100
TEG Q’ty *1
2010
120 M pcs/year
Unit : MWe per year
Source : The Worldwide Installed Geothermal Power Plant Capacity, IGA 2008 (International Geothermal Association)
Note : 1. The detailed estimation for TEG quantity, please refer to appendix 2. MWe: Mega Watt of Electricity
* see appendix
Market Analysis and Potentiality – Geothermal Electricity
Global Solar PV Installation/Production :Alternative Energy 2003 2007 2017 (est.)
Solar PV Installations (MW) 620 2,821 22,760
Wind Power Installed (MW) 8000 20,060 75,781
Source: Clean Edge, Inc., 2008
TAM CAGR 23% from 2007 to 2017
Revenue CAGR 12.6% from 2007 to 2017
Market Analysis and Potentiality – Solar PV
Global solar PV installations and TEG projections
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
PV Installations – Megawatts (MW)
1,086 1,460 1,744 2,826 3,674 4,776 5,970 7,462 9,328
Y/Y Change 82% 34% 19% 62% 30% 30% 25% 25% 25%
PV Installations – KM2 ,(12.7M2/KW)
13,792 18,542 22,149 35,890 46,657 60,654 75,818 94,773 118,466
Solar TEG Equivalent – KM2 ,(2M2/KW)*
2,172 2,920 3,488 5,652 7,348 9,552 11,940 14,925 18,656
Source: 2007 solar market review, Solarbuzz, Merrill LynchNote : please refer to appendix for the output power of TEG
Year 2008 SPV market size projection will be 3.674 GW, which is equal to TEG as below formula :
7,348Km2 * 100 pcs/m2 = 734 million pcs per year
Market Analysis and Potentiality – Solar PV
Geothermal Generation
Thermal-Electric Market
600M
120M 735M
Annum Quantity(pcs)
Waste Heat IncineratorIndustrial
Solar HeatRoof-top
Power Plant
Market Analysis and Potentiality – TEG Prospective
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Develo
pm
en
t Intr
od
ucti
on G
row
th M
atu
rit
y Declin
e
Sale
s
2014 2015
Rejuvenation
Maintain Stable
Decline or Exit
•Clone study & copy tech
•Clone launch
•Clone getting strong
•Many clone competing
•Paradigm Shift–Innovation recipe–New Technology
•Expand existing business•New Application add in
Market Analysis and Potentiality – Life Cycle
– Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. – NKK, – Nippon Steel Corp., – Takuma Co., Ltd., – Hitachi Zosen Corp., – Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd., – Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy
Industries Co., Ltd., – Mitsui Engineering and
Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., – Kubota Corp., – Ebara Corp., – Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Ltd.,
and – Kobe Steel, Ltd.
Japan
– Veolia Environmental Services, France
– Incinco Limited, UK– ATLAS INCINERATORS A/S, Denmark– Austrian Energy & Environment
Group– Todaysure Projects Limited, UK– KAS Engineering Solutions Ltd. ,
Scoltland – Standardkessel GmbH, Germany– AVA Abfallverbrennungsanlage
Nordweststadt GmbH, Germany
Rest of World
Market Analysis and Potentiality – Waste Heat System Integrators
Veolia Environmental Service Carrier Combustion Associates Capstone Micro Turbine Electra Therm Heat Technology Products Sidel Systems U.S.A., Western Combustion Engineering …
Market Analysis and Potentiality – Waste Heat System Integrators
Calpine Corp. Chevron Corp. AES Corp. Western GeoPower Corp. Raser Technology Inc. Nevada Geothermal Power Inc. Polaris Geothermal Inc. U.S. Geothermal Inc. Grace Geothermal, Ormat Technologies,
Inc., …
Market Analysis and Potentiality – Geothermal System Integrators
Sekisui Chemical Solon AG Fuer Solartecknik Conergy AG Aleo Solar AG Solar-Fabrik AG SAG Solarstrom AG Solartron PCL …
Market Analysis and Potentiality – Solar PV System Integrators
Technology- Leading-edge technology- Full patent coverage- Reverse engineering prevention
Operation- Right selected partner- Good FAE support- Efficiency logistics
Financial- Well financial control and support
Market Analysis and Potentiality – Key Success Factors
Advanced technology Time to market Manufacturing know-how Customer service
Market Analysis and Potentiality – Entry Barriers
Strength•Sophisticated thermal technology•Market leader in TEG performance•Provide a green way on electricity generation•Customer-service driven management team
Weakness•Weak cash flow•Small operation scale•Inadequate mentality and culture•No enough customer reference site
Opportunity•Limit of Petroleum resource•Renewable energy is on trend•Governments compensate electricity and installation fee
•No big guy in TEG implementations of geothermal power plants
•Combine solar PV become better performance•Much waste heat to be recovered
Threat•Followers/clones will be coming soon•Government is getting to reduce SPV installation subsidy
•Solar PV is proven, dominating the market•Need re-educate market and government
Market Analysis and Potentiality – SWOT
Price•10%-30% higher•Cost down by vertical/upstream integration
Product•Best of Cost/price performance•Patent/IP •Module business majority•System offering minority
Place•Vertical market, 80%•Horizontal channel, 20%•Focus on SI channel
Promotion•Road show•Attend professional exhibitions•Web-site marketing•FAE-Driven
Market Analysis and Potentiality – 4P
Manufacturing Plan Fulfillment and Logistics
Strategy
Out Sourcing,SubcontractingManagement
FactoryBuild Up
AsiaFactoryBuild Up
Global
Manufacturing
Operation
Mfg SiteMirroring
(Near customer)
Strategy- Manufacturing Plan
items W-9 W-8 W-7 W-6 W-5 W-4 W-3 W-2 W-1 W0
Market demand
Distribution W/H
Geo W/H
materials all-part-in
sea freight lead time
air freight lead time
PCB production
Ore mining mill
TEG Overall Material Planning Flow
The longest lead time component
Dis
trib
uti
on
manufacturing
Mate
rial pla
nnin
g a
nd
manufa
cturi
ng
Strategy - Fulfillment & Logistics
Suppliers
Procurement
Logistics
Plants
Manufacturing Logistics
DistributionSales
Logistics
Syste
m In
teg
rato
r
En
d C
usto
mer
Geo Site
Recycling
Center
Plant Site
Recycling
•Information Flow•Goods Flow•Financial Flow
Pushed Logistics
Pulled Logistics
Strategy - Fulfillment & Logistics
TEG Market Size Calculation on Global Waste Incineration Capacity
Geothermal Installed Generating Capacity TEG Output Power Projection TEG Market Size Calculation on Geothermal
Electricity System Integrators - Waste Heat Potentiality System Integrators – Geothermal Potentiality System Integrators – Solar PV Potentiality
Appendix
• Global waste incineration was set on 220 millions tones per year for next 5 year (Mg equal to one ton)
• Set 220K Mg/a in average per plant• 220M Mg/(220Mg/a) = 1,000 plants worldwide• If each plant need 1,000m2 for waste heat recycle, each m2 will
consume 100 pieces of 10cm2 TEG; TEG TAM = 1,000x1,000*100 = 100 Million pieces
Set 220K Mg/a in average per plant
AppendixTEG Market Size Calculation on Global Waste Incineration Capacity
AppendixGeothermal Installed Generating Capacity
Source from: ORRA Lab Taiwan
Hot Side
Cold Side
ΔT V AW=VA /0.01M
2
W=VA /1M2 PFC EfficiencyOutput
(W)
30°C 29°C 1°C 0.05 0.02 0.0010 0.100 0.95 0.8 0.076
70°C 30°C 40°C 0.97 0.48 0.4656 46.56 0.95 0.8 35.38
110°C 32°C 78°C 1.78 0.93 1.6554 165.54 0.95 0.8 125.81
150°C 35°C 115°C 2.49 1.31 3.2619 326.19 0.95 0.8 247.90
190°C 39°C 151°C 3.17 1.67 5.2939 529.39 0.95 0.8 402.33
230°C 43°C 187°C 3.82 2.06 7.8692 786.92 0.95 0.8 598.05
AppendixTEG Output Power Projection
AppendixTEG Market Size Calculation on Geothermal Electricity
System Integrator – Waste Heat Recycling Power Generation :
System Integrator Field Country/Territory
Veolia Environmental Service
•World 2nd largest waste management and environmental services company.
•Head quarter in France•Worldwide service
Combustion Association
•Heat Recovery Steam Generation (HRSG) that enables the use of waste heat for productive purposes in combined heat and power applications. meet California AB 29X and SB5X Peak Load Reduction Program requirements.
•Head quarter in USA•Worldwide service
Capstone Micro Turbine
•CR65 – the “R” for renewable – will be available with an optional stainless steel integrated heat exchanger.
•Head quarter in USA•Worldwide service
Electra Therm
• Earn “Best of Show” honor by GEA Trade Show 2007. • Nevada, USA
AppendixSystem Integrators - Waste Heat Potentiality
System Integrator – Geothermal Power Generation:
System Integrator Field Country/Territory
Calpine Corp.
• Owns the Geyers, the world largest geothermal power field; 725MWe in Sonoma/Lake county, CA. Operates 19 geothermal plants;
•Head quarter in USA•Worldwide service
Chevron Corp.
• the world’s largest private producer of geothermal energy. Owns Indonesia Darajat, Gunung Salak, and Philippine Tiwi, Mak-Ban power plants. Total 1,273MWe.
•Head quarter in USA•Worldwide service
AES Corp.
•Owns Philippine Zambals, 600MWe; Costa Rica 27.5MW •Head quarter in USA•Worldwide service
Western GeoPower Corp.
•Owns 35MWe near The Geyers, 100MWe South Meager plants. •Head quarter in Canada•Worldwide service
AppendixSystem Integrators – Geothermal Potentiality
System Integrator – Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation:
System Integrator Field Country/Territory
Sekisue Chemical
• Cumulated 60,000 houses (half of all new build) equipped solar photovoltaic power generation system;
•Head quarter in Japan• 200 companies WW
Solon AG Fuer Solartechnik
• SOLON is one of Europe's leading manufacturers of solar modules and suppliers of photovoltaic systems for large-scale solar power plants. 85MW have been contracted worldwide.
•Head quarter in Germany•Worldwide services
Aleo Solar AG
•Total capacity up-to-date is 100MW.•Founding of the joint venture avim solar with the Chinese Sunvim Group Co. Ltd.
•Head quarter in Germany•Worldwide service
Conergy AG
•Main products: Photovoltaic and wind energy.•Largest photovoltaic plant in Asia: SunTechnics commissioned to build a 20 MW solar power plant in in South Korea.•SunTechnics GmbH will be integrated into Conergy by end of 2008
•Head quarter in Germany•Worldwide service
Appendix System Integrators – Solar PV Potentiality