Greater Manchester Forecasting Model 25 th November 2014 Professor Neil Gibson Special Advisor: Oxford Economics
Jan 17, 2016
Greater Manchester Forecasting Model
25th November 2014
Professor Neil Gibson
Special Advisor: Oxford Economics
Agenda
■The key facts
■Changes since last release
■The outlook
■Exploring the unemployment story
■Commuting flows – how have they changed?
■Risks and policy considerations
■Our details & what is available
2
The key facts
3
4
Greater Manchester - A vital component of the UK economy
■ 2014
■2.7 Million People
■ Employment
■1.4 Million Jobs
■ Gross Value Added
■£54.7 billion GVA
Source: Oxford Economics
Service sector dominates the labour market…
5
Greater Manchester Population & employment breakdown - 2014
Source: Annual Population Survey, Oxford Economics
Employed51%
Elderly population
16%
Child population
20%
Unemployed2%
Student3%
Looking after family home
3%
Sick3%
Other2% Business
services26%
Public services
26%
Other19%
Wholesale & retail15%
Manufacturing8%
Construction6%
…generating over half the wealth
6
£55 Billion
Sectoral breakdown of GM’s 2014 GVA
Source: Oxford Economics
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
£m 2011
Public services Business servicesManufacturing Wholesale & retail
Construction
Other
Manchester accounts for over a quarter of jobs
7
% of total GM Employment 2014
Source: Oxford Economics
Bolton
9.0 % Bury
5.5 %
Rochdale
5.9 %
Oldham
6.5 %
Stockport
10.1%
Tameside
5.7 %
Manchester
27.7 %
Wigan
8.4 %
Trafford
11.4 %
Salford
9.9 %
… and GVA
8
% of total GM GVA 2014
Source: Oxford Economics
Bolton
8.4 % Bury
4.9%
Rochdale
5.5 %
Oldham
5.9 %
Stockport
10.1%
Tameside
5.56%
Manchester
29.3 %
Wigan
7.7 %
Trafford
12.0 %
Salford
10.6 %
Changes since last release
9
Forecast changes modest – new starting points
10
Population Greater Manchester
Employment Greater Manchester
Source: ONS, Oxford Economics
■ Demographic outlook remains similar.
■ The total employment level in 2014 is some 48,000 jobs higher than that estimated in the last release.
■ The jobs forecast is very similar to last year, albeit from a higher base.
2,500
2,550
2,600
2,650
2,700
2,750
2,800
2,850
2,900
2,950
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
(000
s)
Current release
Last release
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
(000
s)Current release
Last release
Changes since last release
11
GVA Greater Manchester
Unemployment Greater Manchester
Source: ONS, Claimant Count, Oxford Economics
■ The unemployment outlook is more positive this year, with around 20,000 fewer claimants expected in 2024.
■ The latest data shows 2014 to have been better than expected
■ Welfare effect more muted than provisioned for, coupled with higher job numbers and modestly less population
■ Our GVA growth outlook for the area is marginally weaker than the previous release.
■ GVA has been rebased to 2011 prices and based upon the 2010 European System of Accounts.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
( % )
Current release
Last release
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
(000
s)
Currentrelease
Lastrelease
Changes since last release
12
Summary of differences in 2014
Source: ONS, Claimant Count, Oxford Economics
Population (000s) Employment (000s) GVA growth (pp change) Unemployment (000s)Bolton -0.6 8.5 1.7 -2.3Bury -0.4 -1.0 0.7 -1.1Oldham 0.5 0.7 0.7 -1.9Rochdale -0.5 -4.6 -0.3 -1.6Stockport 0.8 -3.5 -0.3 -1.3Tameside -0.1 1.3 1.0 -1.7Trafford 1.2 12.7 1.7 -1.3Wigan 0.8 2.5 0.8 -2.4Manchester -3.4 24.3 1.6 -4.5Salford -1.2 6.9 1.2 -2.1Greater Manchester -2.8 56.2 1.2 -20.2
Specialisms – Winners and losers
13
Rochdale
Stockport
Bolton
Trafford
Wigan
Man
ches
ter
Note: Winners & Losers
Head offices
Management consultancy
Call centres
Other social work
Social security activities
Wholesale of machinery
Event catering
Retail sales in specialised stores
Call centres
Public admin of state policies
Hospital activities
Auxiliary insurance & pension
Hospital activities
Temp agency
Tax consultancy
Cleaning services
Employment agencies
Public admin of state policies
Temp agency
Amusement
Public administration of state policies
Cleaning services
Other social work
Wholesale of machinery
Manufacture of wearing apparel
Social work activities
Warehousing & storage
Other social work
Head offices
Residential care for elderly & disabled
Tax consultancy
Waste treatment
Temp agency
Cleaning services
Wholesale of machinery
Manufacture of gas
Source: BRES, Oxford Economics
2013 BRES results revealed…
14
Top 10 and bottom 10 employee changes, Greater Manchester, 2012-2013
2012-2013Temporary employment agency activities 4800Activities of call centres 4800Accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities 4100Other postal and courier activities 3700Retail sale of other goods in specialised stores 3500Real estate activities on a fee or contract basis 3400Renting and operating of own or leased real estate 3400Event catering and other food service activities 3200Management consultancy activities 3000Wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco 2400
2012-2013Other social work activities without accommodation -6200Wholesale of other machinery, equipment and supplies -5800Cleaning activities -3500Beverage serving activities -3000Electrical, plumbing and other construction installation -2800Restaurants and mobile food service activities -2400Private security activities -2300Freight transport by road and removal services -2100Manufacture of furniture -2000Retail sale in non-specialised stores -1900
Source: BRES
Biggest changes between 2012 and 2013….
15
Secondary education: +310 jobs
Accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy: -587 jobs
Activities of call centres: +3749 jobs
Hospital activities: -2588 jobs
Renting and operating of own or leased real estate: +707 jobs
Wholesale of other machinery, equipment and supplies: -540 jobs
Warehousing and storage: +341 jobs
Activities of head offices: -1533 jobs
Administration of the State : +1715 jobs
Event catering and other food service activities: -1842 jobs
Hospital activities: +1944 jobs
Administration of the State: -1147 jobs
Accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy: +640 jobs
Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains: -1243 jobs
Administration of the State: +3090 jobs
Other social work activities: -1806 jobs
Activities of head offices: +1322 jobs
Wholesale of other machinery, equipment and supplies: -587 jobs
Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains: +1142 jobs
Wireless telecommunications activities: -667 jobs
Rochdale
Oldham
Tameside
Stockport
Salford
BoltonBury
Trafford
Wigan
Man
ches
ter
Making sense of the data?
16
Labour market indicators, change, 2012-2013
BRES, employee jobs Claimant count
APS employment
APS unemployment
Bolton 3,900 -800 -2,100 400Bury 800 -800 -300 -2,900Manchester 16,300 -2,200 12,000 -7,900Oldham 100 -1,800 2,000 -2,100Rochdale -2,600 -1,400 1,400 -1,200Salford 4,200 -900 -3,600 4,900Stockport -2,200 -600 6,600 -400Tameside 100 -1,400 2,600 1,200Trafford 7,000 -800 3,400 -900Wigan 1,200 -1,700 -4,500 1,400Greater Manchester 28,800 -12,400 17,500 -7,500North West 41,000 -30,700 37,900 -25,600
The outlook
17
18
What’s the story? – The Outlook
■ 2014 – 2024 growth
■128,000 More People
■ Employment
■109,000 Net New Jobs
■ Gross Value Added
■£17bn More annual GVA
Source: Oxford Economics
The regional picture - In line with the UK average
19
Per Annum GVA Growth 2014 - 2024
UK 2.78%
Northern Ireland
2.23%
North West
2.53%
London 3.39%
Scotland
2.34%
Wales 2.40%
East Midlands 2.53%
South West 2.68%
South East 2.94%
East 2.85%
Greater Manchester 2.78 %
Lower than Greater Manchester
Higher than Greater Manchester
a
Recovery for all, but city economies do still lead
20
2008-2014 pa % growth 2014-2024 pa % growth
Greater Manchester
Greater Manchester
GVA growth per annum (%)
-1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Admin & support Professional, scientific & technical
Wholesale & retail transportation & storage
Real estate Financial & insurance
Electricity, gas & steam Water supply & waste management
Manufacturing Human health & social work
Other service activities Mining & Quarrying
Education Construction
Arts & entertainment Public admin & defence
Agriculture Accommodation & food
Information & comms
pp. differnce (GM % - UK %)
+6,400+8,100
-300-6,700+6,800
+13,800-3,700
-100+4,400-5,300
-14,300-500
-1,100+2,300+7,200+9,200
+11,400+31,200+29,700
Service strength leading the employment forecasts
21
UK more heavily concentrated
Greater Manchester more heavily concentrated
Source: Oxford Economics
Change in jobs 2014-24
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Mining & QuarryingAgriculture
Public admin & defenceWater supply & waste management
Electricity, gas & steamEducation
Arts & entertainmentOther service activities
Accommodation & foodTransportation & storage
Human health & social workConstruction
ManufacturingFinancial & insurance
Information & commsAdmin & support
Wholesale & retailProfessional, scientific & technical
£2011m
Non Domestic
Domestic
But industry plays bigger role in GVA outlook
22
GVA growth 2014-2024 – Greater Manchester (£m 2011)
Source: Oxford Economics Note: Excludes real estate as this includes ownership of dwellings and imputed rents
The Outlook – headline local forecasts
23
Source: ONS, Claimant Count, Oxford Economics
Jobs (000s) GVA (% per annum) Population (000s)Bolton 1.1 2.8% 1.3Bury 0.5 2.6% 0.9Oldham 0.4 2.4% 0.6Rochdale 0.2 2.2% 0.4Stockport 1.0 2.7% 1.2Tameside 0.2 2.2% 0.6Trafford 1.3 2.8% 0.9Wigan 0.4 2.3% 0.9Manchester 4.3 3.1% 3.9Salford 1.7 3.1% 2.0
2014 - 2024 per annum change
Private services dominating job creation
24
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45Public services
Private services
Production
Employment change, 2014-2024 (000’s)
Source: Oxford Economics
Sectoral focus – key business services
25
ICT, professional services, administration, accommodation & food and arts employment (000s)
Source: Oxford Economics
■ Crucial ‘backbone’ of jobs recovery
■ Growth has been strong consistently in cities
■ ICT has upside risk
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
(000
s)
Forecast
Greater Manchester
Manchester & Salford
82,000Jobs
44,000Jobs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
(000
s)
Forecast
Greater Manchester
Manchester & Salford
31,200 Jobs
17,400Jobs
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
(000
s)
Forecast
Greater Manchester
Manchester & Salford
6,400 Jobs
3,200Jobs
Key Drivers: ICT and professional services
26
ICT employment (000s)
Professional services employment (000s)
Source: Oxford Economics
■ Classification can be an issue – but strong growth in parts of the country
■ Expected to grow steadily
■ ‘Big Data’ and computerisation of more activities (law, consulting etc. could see re-classification into this sector)
■ The primary source of job growth
■ ‘Catch-all’ sector for wide range of services – suggest breaking down where you can in policy circles
■ Remember outsourcing from other sectors – key to understand this sector
020406080
100120140160180200
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
(000
s)
Forecast
Greater Manchester
Manchester & Salford
29,700Jobs
16,300 Jobs
Key Drivers: Admin and hotels sector
27
Admin & support employment (000s)
Accommodation & food employment (000s)
Source: Oxford Economics
■ Fast growing sector and likely to rise even faster as greater use of recruitment workers and outsourcing of activities
■ Needs ‘broken down’ to fully understand the local labour market – do you know what your agency workers do?
■ Key sector for both tourism and consumer spending
■ Expected to recover in line with wider economy, but could do even better?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
(000
s)
Forecast
Greater Manchester
Manchester & Salford
14,900Jobs
7,300Jobs
Key Drivers: Summary
28
ICT, professional services, administration, accommodation & food and arts employment (000s)
Source: Oxford Economics
Suggests the area has a specialism in this sector
Bolton 0.40 3.50 2.40 0.70 7.00 UK LQ <1.2Bury 0.30 1.30 0.80 0.30 2.70 UK LQ >1.2Oldham 0.30 0.90 1.00 0.20 2.40Rochdale 0.20 0.80 0.80 0.30 2.10Stockport 0.90 2.40 2.70 0.70 6.70Tameside 0.20 0.90 0.50 0.30 1.90Trafford 0.70 3.40 3.20 0.90 8.20Wigan 0.30 0.80 2.10 0.70 3.90Manchester 2.00 14.20 10.90 2.00 29.10Salford 1.20 3.20 5.40 0.60 10.40Greater Manchester 6.50 31.40 29.80 6.70 74.40
2014 - 2024 Employment Change (000s)
ICTProfessional
servicesAdministrative
servicesArts &
entertainmentTotal
Key drivers: The contrast in industrial jobs and GVA
29
Employment – Thousands GVA - £m 2011
Source: Oxford Economics
14,000 Manufacturing job losses are forecast over the next decade, with per annum GVA growth of 1.7% expected.
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
(000
s)
Forecast
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024(£
m 2
011)
Forecast
A little more on manufacturing…
30
Manufacture of bread tops the list of manufacturing sectors within Greater Manchester, with over 5% of total manufacturing employment coming from this sector.
Source: Business Register Employment Survey
What Greater Manchester makes…
Top Manufacturing Sectors - Greater Manchester Employees GB LQManufacture of bread, pastry goods and cakes 5,700 1.89Other printing 3,300 0.90Manufacture of plastic products 2,900 1.45Manufacture of made-up textile articles 2,900 3.08Manufacture of rusks and biscuits 2,800 2.63Machining 2,600 0.69Manufacture of builders ware of plastic 2,500 1.49Manufacture of instruments 2,300 0.93Manufacture of soap and detergents 2,200 5.13Manufacture of other food products 2,100 1.61Manufacture of other furniture 2,000 1.28Manufacture of metal structures 1,700 0.83Manufacture of motor vehicles and coachworks 1,700 2.36Manufacture of paints and varnishes 1,600 2.46Manufacture of general-purpose machinery 1,600 1.55Manufacture of medical and dental instruments 1,500 1.08Manufacture of prepared meals and dishes 1,500 1.38Manufacture of rubber products 1,400 2.19Manufacture of builders' carpentry and joinery 1,400 0.88Manufacture of plastic packing goods 1,300 1.36
LQ > 1.2
Manufacturing still a key component across GM
31
Manufacturing: 10,400
■ Meat processing: 1,000
■ Plastics: 800
■ General machines: 600
Manufacturing: 13,400
■ Metal fabrication: 1,600
■ Knitted apparel: 1,100
■ Baking: 1,100
Manufacturing: 9,900
■ Baking: 900
■ Metal Treatment: 800
■ Furniture: 800
Manufacturing: 10,800
■ Plastics: 1,200
■ Other textiles: 1,100
■ General machines: 800
Manufacturing: 7,600
■ Basic chemicals: 800
■ Instruments: 500
■ General machines: 400
Manufacturing: 10,100
■ Grains & starches: 1,000
■ Dairy products: 800
■ Printing: 700
Manufacturing: 10,100
■ Baking: 1,300
■ Printing: 1,200
■ Instruments: 600
Manufacturing: 12,500
■ Other food: 2,700
■ Baking: 1,100
■ Plastics: 700
Manufacturing: 11,800
■ Baking: 2,300
■ Plastics: 1,200
■ Furniture: 900
Manufacturing: 7,000
■ Plastics: 1,300
■ Soap & detergents: 700
■ Other textiles: 500
Rochdale
Oldham
Tameside
Stockport
Salford
BoltonBury
Trafford
Wigan
Man
ches
ter
Business services – what does it really do?
32
Business services: 6,500
■ Tax consulting: 1,400
■ Architecture: 800
■ Temp agency : 700
Business services: 73,500
■ Temp agency : 13,300
■ Legal: 10,000
■ Management consulting: 7,700
Business services: 7,600
■ Temp agency : 1,600
■ Management consulting: 1,000
■ Recruiters: 900
Business services: 8,900
■ Temp agency : 3,400
■ Advertising: 800
■ Management consulting: 600
Business services: 24,400
■ Cleaning: 5,300
■ Temp agency: 3,100
■ Management
consulting: 2,300
Business services: 36,400
■ Temp agency : 7,800
■ Tax consulting: 6,800
■ Private security: 5,100
Business services: 21,100
■ Support: 3,500
■ Architecture: 2,400
■ Tax consulting: 2,200
Business services: 14,200
■ Temp agency: 3,100
■ Business support:
1,500
■ Private security: 1,300
Business services: 16,200
■ Legal: 2,200
■ Management consulting: 2,000
■ Temp agency: 1,900
Business services: 7,300
■ Head offices: 900
■ Tax consulting: 800
■ Architecture: 700
Rochdale
Oldham
Tameside
Stockport
Salford
BoltonBury
Trafford
Wigan
Man
ches
ter
Research questions
Understanding the local data – examining the results, checking the validity and inputting on the baseline position.
The temporary employment agencies – a key component of the labour market, what sectors are the people actually working in?
What does the professional services sector do? Who does it serve, what are the risks / opportunities?
33
Exploring the unemployment story
34
All areas experienced falls in unemployment numbers
35
Source: Claimant Count
Note: excludes Universal Credit
Unemployment, claimant count
0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000
WiganTrafford
TamesideStockport
SalfordRochdale
OldhamManchester
BuryBolton
October 2012
October 2014
Good news for the young, not the long term unemployed
36
Source: Claimant Count
Note: excludes Universal Credit
Younger unemployed workers have benefited most.
Unemployment halves from 84,000 in October 2012 to 42,000 in October 2014, but long-term unemployment persists.
Unemployment by age
Unemployment duration0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Under24
25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60+
October 2012
October 2014
0 10,000 20,000 30,000
3 months
3 - 6 months
6 - 12months
1 - 2 years
2+ yearsOctober 2012
October 2014
Elementary workers finding jobs (or falling out of the system?)
37
Management and senior staff haven’t benefited from the fall in un employment.
Source: Claimant Count
Note: excludes Universal Credit
Unemployment by occupation
Unemployment by age0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
Unknown
Managers
Professionals
Technical
Admin & secretaries
Skilled Trade
Personal service
Customer Service
Plant & Machine operators
Elementary
October 2012
October 2014
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Males Oct '12 Males Oct '14
Females Oct '12 Females Oct '14
Is Greater Manchester close to full employment?
38
77 wards across Greater Manchester currently have an unemployment rate less than 1.7%
Total claimants,
Oct 14 %
% excluding long term claimants
Bolton 4,760 2.7 1.8Bury 2,370 2.0 1.4Manchester 11,430 3.1 2.2Oldham 2,910 2.1 1.3Rochdale 3,220 2.4 1.8Salford 4,070 2.6 1.9Stockport 3,710 2.1 1.6Tameside 2,860 2.0 1.4Trafford 2,150 1.5 1.1Wigan 4,320 2.1 1.4Greater Manchester 41,810 2.4 1.7
Unemployment, Oct 2014
Source: Claimant Count
Note: excludes Universal Credit
Policy observations
Are skills shortages about to re-emerge, evidence would suggest yes
Impact on migration?
Are the falling numbers of people unemployed reflecting more people in work, or people leaving the system
The long term unemployment problem remains a key challenge
How well do we understand inactivity / hidden unemployment?
39
Commuting flows – how have they changed?
40
Significant in-flows into all labour markets
41
Source: Census
Commuting in all areas rises over the decade except for Manchester
Change 2001-2011(percentage point difference)
Wigan: 28.8%
Bolton: 35.3%
Bury: 45.0%
Rochdale: 38.5%
Oldham: 38.9%
Tameside: 36.4%
Stockport: 46.5%
Manchester: 62.3%
Trafford: 62.8%
Salford: 60.1%
Greater than 2001
Less than 2001
Who takes Manchester’s jobs?
42
2001Manchester 95,200Stockport 27,200Trafford 22,600Tameside 17,800Salford 14,900Bury 13,600Oldham 11,700Cheshire East 10,000Rochdale 9,600Bolton 6,600Wigan 5,300Warrington 3,900High Peak 3,700Cheshire West and Chester 3,000Rossendale 1,400St. Helens 1,300Liverpool 1,200Chorley 1,100Kirklees 1,000Sefton 800
2011Manchester 108,700Stockport 25,500Trafford 24,800Salford 18,900Tameside 17,500Bury 12,100Oldham 11,700Cheshire East 9,400Rochdale 9,300Bolton 7,000Wigan 5,400Warrington 4,200High Peak 3,300Cheshire West and Chester 2,900Liverpool 1,700Rossendale 1,500St. Helens 1,400Kirklees 1,100Chorley 1,100Calderdale 900
Usual place of residence of Manchester’s workforce, top 20
Source: Census
Residents leaving to work….
43
47%
60%
56%
52%
43%
45%48%
53%
60% 44%
Rochdale
Oldham
Tameside
Stockport
Salford
BoltonBury
Trafford
Wigan
Man
ches
ter
Greater than 2001
Less than 2001
Source: Census
% of working residents who work in own area, 2011
A growing population will impact flows
44
Demographic changes 2014-2024
Source: Oxford Economics, ONS
Population (ONS) Population (OE)Bolton 16.4 12.8Bury 10.1 8.5Oldham 9.2 6.3Rochdale 5.3 4.0Stockport 13.9 11.7Tameside 13.4 6.3Trafford 16.3 9.3Wigan 17.6 9.2Manchester 34.0 39.3Salford 23.4 20.2Greater Manchester 159.6 127.6
2014 - 2024 change (000s)
More jobs would be required under ONS population outlook
45
Source: Oxford Economics, ONS
2014 -2024 Job forecast (000s)
Additional jobs required to support ONS
populationBolton 10.9 2.4Bury 5.0 1.1Oldham 3.7 1.3Rochdale 1.8 0.6Stockport 9.8 1.2Tameside 1.8 4.3Trafford 12.7 3.0Wigan 4.3 4.7Manchester 42.6 -2.1Salford 16.6 2.4Greater Manchester 109.2 18.8
Risks and policy considerations
46
Assessing the risks
Upside: wage pressures, skills shortages
Upside: sectoral tapestry – spreading the wealth?
Downside: Debt and interest rate rises
Downside: Austerity, cutting not pruning?
Upside / downside: The competition
Upside / downside: External conditions
47
Policy considerations
Jobs growth – do we believe it, could there be upside pressures?
Are we on top of the business issues, esp. skills?
Demographics – scenario planning, merging your knowledge with the data
Broader church of growth – challenging picking winners?
The supply side impacts of broader growth – skills, land, housing, transport
Vulnerability of jobs – temporary agencies and the elementary workers
How is the public sector today? Are we austerity ready (and will it happen)?
48
Our details and what is available
49
GMFM 2014 – What is available
Economy :
■ Employment;
■ Employees (note: excludes self-employment);
■ GVA;
Demographics:
■ Total population;
■ Broad age groups (young, working age population and elderly);
■ Migration – domestic & international;
Residence based employment/employment rate;
Unemployment level / rate;
Employment by 25 minor occupation groups;
Qualification levels by occupation;
Replacement demand by occupation;
Household numbers;
Household income;
Carbon emissions, and
Demand for commercial floorspace
Note: economy results broken down by broad sector, 50 SIC2007 sectors as well as sectors defined by the New Economy
Oxford Economics
Lagan House
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BT27 4AB
UK
Tel: 028 9263 5403
Fax: 028 9263 5425
Kerry Houston
Head of Regional Forecasting
Oxford Economics
Email: [email protected]
Tel: 02892 635402
Anthony Light
Associate Director
Oxford Economics
Email: [email protected]
Tel: 0207 803 1419
Contact details: