Great Lakes Water Levels

Keith Kompoltowicz

Chief, Watershed Hydrology

US Army Corps of Engineers

Detroit District

Great Lakes Water Levels

MWEA Annual Meeting

Boyne Mountain Resort

June 26, 2013

Great Lakes Missions

2

1. Produces official coordinated lake level forecasts

2. Provides technical expertise to the International Joint Commission's

(IJC) Great Lakes Boards of Control

3. Maintains a large Great Lakes hydromet database

4. Maintains coordinated monthly water level statistics from 1918-2012

5. Measures flows in the connecting channels

Period of record of Great Lakes water levels (1918-2012)

• Times of above average levels, times of below average levels, times of near average levels.

• No discernible long-term cycles

WINTER SPRING SUMMER FALL

Snow

accumulation

Snow melt,

rainfall,

increased

runoff

Increased

sunshine

warms

lake water

Increased

evaporation

Hydrologic Cycle

Water Balance (Factors Affecting Water Levels)

Inflow from

Upstream

Lake

Evapora

tion

Pre

cip

itation

Outflow

Run

off

Net Basin

Supply

Net Total

Supply

2012 Net Basin Supplies

2013 Net Basin Supplies

April 15, 2012 Snow Water Equivalent

NOHRSC

April 15, 2013 Snow Water Equivalent

NOHRSC

11

Precipitation since March 25

January Lake Levels

January

2013

Level

(ft, IGLD85)

Difference

from LWD

(inches)

Difference

from Jan.

2012

(inches)

Difference

from Jan.

Record

Low, in.

Difference

from Jan.

Average

(inches)

Superior 600.36 -9 -1 +6 -13

Michigan-

Huron 576.02 -18 -17 -1 -29

St. Clair 572.57 +3 -20 +25 -13

Erie 570.28 +13 -22 +24 -7

Ontario 244.03 +9 -17 +22 -7

Lowest monthly mean on record

since 1918

June Lake Levels (projected)

June 2013

Level

(ft, IGLD85)

Difference

from LWD

(inches)

Difference

from June

2012

(inches)

Difference

from June

Record

Low, in.

Difference

from June

Average

(inches)

Superior 601.26 +2 +3 +16 -7

Michigan-

Huron 577.59 +1 -1 +11 -19

St. Clair 574.09 +22 0 +21 -7

Erie 571.60 +28 0 +30 -4

Ontario 246.39 +37 +8 +36 2

Seasonal Rises

2013 2012

Superior 14” 15”

Michigan

-Huron 19” 4”

St. Clair 18” 0

Erie 16” 0

Ontario 28” 8”

Based on monthly mean water levels

2013 thru June’s projections

Water Level Forecasting Monthly Bulletin since the 1950s, coordinated with

Environment Canada

NBS Water Level

Statistical models, a large basin runoff model, weather

forecasts, current conditions and scientific judgment to

predict a 6 month NBS sequence.

NBS sequences are routed using a coordinated model to

produce water level forecasts

16

17

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19

BUILDING STRONG® 20

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BUILDING STRONG®

Contact Information

Keith Kompoltowicz

(313) 226-6442

[email protected]

http://www.lre.usace.army.mil/