Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 1 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level.

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 1

Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 16-18, 2010 1

Hydrodynamic Modeling

Summary:

Still working on itHydrodynamic Modeling

Dave Schwab

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 2

Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

2

Hydrodynamic Modeling Team

Develops, tests, integrates, and implements numerical models of lake circulation, water levels, waves, and lake thermal structure to understand and predict the effects of the physical environment on the ecosystem

Ice

Hydrology

Ecology

Meteorology/Climatology

Hydrodynamics

Integrated Ecological Modeling Framework

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 3

Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 16-18, 2010 3

Key Scientific QuestionsHow can we better characterize the exchange of momentum and heat between the atmosphere and the lake because these are the primary forces that determine lake circulation?

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 4

Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

4

What are the critical factors that limit our ability to accurately predict physical phenomena in the lakes?

Measured (black) and predicted (red) currents in Lake St. Clair

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 5

Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

5

What are the appropriate linkages between physics and biology for particular

ecological processes?

7-day forecast for location of Microcystis bloom in Lake ErieSept. 13, 2010

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 6

Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

6

How do we effectively provide information from hydrodynamic models to our collaborators, users, and constituents?

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 7

Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

7

Hydrodynamics Modeling TeamScales of Application

Days

Months

Seasons

Years

Weeks

GlobalRegionalLocal

Larval Pathways Trajectory-Based Forecasts

Beach Advisories

Hypoxia Formation

Habitat Migration

Disease Transmission

Model-Based Ecosystem Forecasts

Invasive Spread

Species Abundance

Resource Recovery

Exposure Risk

Ecosystem Change

Climate Impacts

Spill Response

Spatial Extent of Forecast

Fre

qu

en

cy o

f F

ore

cas

t

Scenario-Based Forecasts

Hydrodynamicand Ice Models

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 8

Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 16-18, 2010 8

Research Leading to GLCFS

76-79

•Dynamical storm surge forecasts for Lakes Erie and Huron

84

•Great Lakes wave forecast model (GDWM)

80-89

•Objective analysis of overlake winds

88-90

•CoastWatch SST for the Great Lakes

89

•3D hydrodynamic circulation model of Lake Erie

90-91

•Demonstration of operational GLCFS at OSU

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 9

Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

9

GLCFS Transition to Operations

National Digital Forecast Database

GLERL Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System

CO-OPS1991 / 2003

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 10

Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

10

• Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model unstructured grid

• Nowcasts / forecasts of hourly water levels and currents

• Link model with output from GLCFS

• Updated every 6 hrs

Huron-Erie Connecting Waterways Forecasting System

Lake St. Clair

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 11

Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 16-18, 2010 11Grid Nesting and Unstructured Grids

High Resolution Hydrodynamic Models

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 12

Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

12

Experimental Validation of Model Simulations: Grand River Plume

June 2, 2007

June 20, 2007June 6, 2007

June 10, 2007

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 13

Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 16-18, 2010 13

Hydrodynamic Modeling - Visualization

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 14

Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 16-18, 2010 14

Hydrodynamic Modeling - Customers

• NOAA NWS Great Lakes Offices - Marine forecasts• NOAA NWS - North Central River Forecast Center - Water Levels• NOAA NOS CO-OPS - Coastal forecasts• NOAA NOS/OHHII - Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Erie• National Ice Center - Water temperature and ice• USCG SAR - Search and rescue planning• NOAA HAZMAT - Spill response• U.S. Geological Survey - Spill Response• Northeast Ohio Regional Sewer District - Water temperature• Niagara River Control Center - Water Levels• UW-Milwaukee/SUNY Buffalo - Nested Grid Modeling• Recreational users: sport fishing, boating, swimming

In addition, dozens of academic, private sector, and other public agencies make requests for various archived products from GLCFS

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 15

Click to edit Master text styles– Second level

• Third level– Fourth level

» Fifth level

15

Questions?