1 © SAMI Consulting Scenarios in a Partnership Future Perspectives at Grant Thornton June 2014 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
1© SAMI Consulting
Scenarios in a Partnership
Future Perspectives at Grant Thornton
June 2014
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2© SAMI Consulting
• Our offer– To enhance the capability to anticipate – To transform emergent thinking into strategy and
implementation
• Consulting, backed up by executive education and research to deliver “robust decisions in uncertain times”
• “You can never plan the future by the past”– Edmund Burke, 1729-1797
SAMI
• The hard bit starts here!
• Horizon scanning, interviews, research, Jam inputs leading to a list of up to 20 drivers of change
• Starting with the March Workshop and going through to the Partners Conference in May
• Taking the drivers of change and creating mental models which combine both the forecastable elements and expose the big questions
Sense Making Setting Prioriites
ImplementationStrategic Intelligence
Strategy cycle
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• The hard bit starts here!
• Horizon scanning, interviews, research, Jam inputs leading to a list of up to 20 drivers of change
• Starting with the March Workshop and going through to the Partners Conference in May
• Taking the drivers of change and creating mental models which combine both the forecastable elements and expose the big questions
Sense Making Setting Prioriites
ImplementationStrategic Intelligence
Board awareness
Board awareness
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Board engagement
Board engagement
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• Process leading to 14 key drivers• Role of Three Horizons tool• Role of programme support• Interviews• Desk research• Use of intranet
• Horizon scanning, interviews, research, Jam inputs leading to a list of up to 20 drivers of change
Strategic Intelligence
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MANAGER VISIONARYENTREPRENEUR
Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES, CDs, DVDs
Eg., MUSIC, MOVIES – transformational disruptor -
iTunes
Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES – paradigm buster -
Napster
Three Horizons Mindsets
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• Each led by “emerging” partners• 6 members including future leaders
– New graduate– High flyer
• Each Panel had to complete 6-10 interviews– Insiders, outsiders/clients, futurists– Outsiders reacted very positively– Panel members pleasantly surprised!
Key role of Panels
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• Scenario workshop– Participants– Style– Inputs– Outputs
• Writing up the scenarios– Naming the scenarios
• Testing the scenarios • Taking the drivers of change and creating mental models which combine both the forecastable elements and expose the big questions
Sense making
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Scenarios built from drivers in this box plus trends
Fore
cast
able
Incorporate in scenarios and track for the business plan
Important
Less important
UncertainThese could be
really disruptive, to be watched
These trends form part of the back story of the scenarios
The Scenario matrix
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• All Panel members took part in Scenario Workshop
• Also took scenarios out to test with publicEach panel had to find 3 groups, eg– Groups of schoolchildren– Women’s Institute– NFU branch– Asset managers– etc
Key role of Panels
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• Using the scenario to wind-tunnel strategies– Participants in the workshop– Style– Inputs– Outputs
• Starting with the March Workshop and going through to the Partners Conference in May
Setting priorities
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Brainstorm
Calibrate
Options
Process
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Familiar
Unfamiliar
Uncertain
Current contribution Mature in 2-5 years Mature in 5+ years
Options
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• Use to steer internal priorities• Use with clients
– Building on strong interest from interviews– And from testing workshops
• The hard bit starts here!
Implementation
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Or latest book follows on from “Beyond Crisis” and is called “Here be Dragons” – for details see www.samiconsulting.co.uk.
And we run Futures Coaching for the UK Government Office for Science, see www.samiconsulting.co.uk.
For more…..
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