Directorate of Government Debt Securities Directorate General of Debt Management Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia Government Securities Management January 2 nd , 2015
Directorate of Government Debt Securities Directorate General of Debt Management Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
Government Securities Management January 2nd, 2015
OUTLINE
1. Government Securities Management and Financing
Strategy
2. Government Securities Performance
3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization
Framework
4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile
2
Government Securities
Management and Financing Strategy
Key Initiatives to Develop Domestic Gov. Securities
Market
Facilitating the development of derivative instrument and Government securities repo:
• Develop a deep and liquid repo market, coordinate with FSA
• Facilitating the development of Government Bond Futures
Focused on a few benchmark series with large outstanding
Introduction of an electronic trading platform (ETP)
Strengthening Investor Relations (IR)
Launch a new primary dealer system
Increase domestic participation from key investors
Continuously improving bond stabilization framework
4
Financing Trend, 2004 – 2015
(trillion IDR)
Notes: * Revised Budget 2014
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015
Govt Securities - net 6.9 22.6 36.0 57.2 85.9 99.5 91.1 119.9 159.7 224.6 265.0 277.0
Domestic Loan - - - - - 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.4 2.2 1.6
External Loan - net (28.1) (10.3) (26.6) (26.6) (18.4) (12.4) (4.6) (17.8) (23.5) (5.8) (13.4) (23.8)
Others/Non-Debt - net 42.0 (1.2) 20.0 9.1 16.6 25.5 4.6 28.3 38.1 18.1 (12.2) (9.0)
Budget Defisit, % to GDP 1.1 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.1 1.6 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.2
1.1
0.5
0.9
1.3
0.1
1.6
0.7
1.1
1.8
2.3 2.4
2.2
(0.5)
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
5
Securities Financing Realization 2015
*Adjusted by changes in Cash Management & Debt Switch
*(Million IDR)
Budget 2015*Realization
(ao Jan 2, 2015)*
% Realization to
Budget 2015
Government Securities Net 277,049,800 - 0.00%
Government Securities Maturing in 2015 153,612,324 875,000 0.57%
-Buyback 3,000,000 - 0.00%
Issuance Need 2015* 430,662,124 3,000,000 0.70%
Government Debt Securities (GDS) 3,000,000
Domestic GDS 3,000,000
-Coupon GDS -
-Conventional T-Bills -
-Private Placement 3,000,000
-Retail Bonds -
International Bonds -
-USD GMTN -
-Euro GMTN -
-Samurai Bonds -
Government Islamic Debt Securities -
Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities -
- IFR/PBS/T-Bills Sukuk (Islamic Fixed Rated Bond/Project Based Sukuk) -
- Retail Sukuk -
Global Sukuk -
6
General Strategy for Debt Financing 2015
1. Optimizes Governments securities (SBN) issuance from domestic sources to fulfill Budget need and uses
foreign debts as complimentary;
2. Determines debt instrument by taken into account of market need in regard to market development and
portfolio management;
3. Issues Retail Bond for instrument diversification and financial inclusion;
4. Optimizes foreign and domestic loan instrument to fulfill Budget need on capital expenditure;
5. Conducts active portfolio management of Government securities through, among others, debt buyback
and debt switch, in order to promote market liquidity and stability;
6. Strengthens the function of Investor Relations Unit, among others, through the proactive dissemination of
information, rapid and effective responses, and effective communication with investors and other stakeholders.
7
Government Budget 2015 (Baseline)
8
In billion IDR
A. Total Revenue 1,793,588.9 16.1%
B. Total Expenditure 2,039,483.6 18.3%
Interest Payment 151,968.3 1.4%
Domestic 137,941.8 1.2%
Foreign 14,026.5 0.1%
C. Primary Balance (93,926.4) -0.8%
D. Deficit (245,894.7) -2.2%
E. Financing 245,894.7 2.2%
I. Non Debt (8,961.3) -0.1%
II. Debt 254,856.0 2.3%
1. Government Securities (Net) 277,049.8 2.5%
2. Foreign Loan (Net) (23,815.0) - 0.2%
3. Domestic Loan (Net) 1,621.2 0.0%
Assumptions :
GDP (trillion IDR) (Y.o.Y) 11,146,943.0
Growth (%) 5.8
Inflation (%) y-o-y 4.4
3-month-SPN (%) 6.0
IDR/USD (average) 11,900
Budget % to GDP
2015
Description
8
Financing 2015
9
In billion IDR Financing sources come
from debt financing
(88.75% from Government
Securities, 10.10% from
Loan) and the rest 1.15%
from non debt financing;
(* Non Debt Financing
Expenditures:
• Gov’t Investment Fund;
• Contingent Liabilities.
(** Non Debt Sources:
• Inflows from On-Lending
Repayment;
• Inflows from Asset
Management.
A. Total Revenue 1,793,588.9 16.09
B. Total Expenditure 2,039,483.6 18.30
Interest Payment 151,968.3 1.36
C. Primary Balance (93,926.4) (0.84)
D. Deficit (245,894.7) (2.21)
E. Financing 245,894.7 2.21
I. Non Debt (287,039.1) (2.58)
II. Debt 532,933.8 4.78
1. Government Securities (Net) 277,049.8 2.49
i. Issuance 430,986.1 3.87
ii. Principal Refinancing and Buyback (153,936.3) (1.38)
2. Loan (Net) (22,193.9) (0.20)
i. Foreign Loan (Net) (23,815.1) (0.21)
Disbursement 47,037.1 0.42
- Program Loan 7,140.0 0.06
- Project Loan 39,897.1 0.36
On Lending (4,319.4) (0.04)
Foreign Loan Principal Payment (66,532.8) (0.60)
ii. Domestic Loan (Net) 1,621.2 0.01
Disbursement 2,000.0 0.02
Domestic Loan Principal Payment (378.8) (0.00)
Assumptions :
GDP (trillion IDR) (Y.o.Y) 11,146,943.0
Growth (%) 5.8
Inflation (%) y-o-y 4.4
3-month-SPN (%) 6.0
IDR/USD (average) 11,900
% to GDP
2015
Budget
Description
9
Gross Government Securities Financing 2015
10
DOMESTIC:
Auction:
23 times of conventional securities auction
22 times of islamic securities auction
Non-Auction
Retail bonds, consist of ORI and Sukuk
Retail.
INTERNATIONAL BOND
Issuance of International Bonds as
complement to avoid crowding out in domestic
market and provide benchmark for corporate
issuance, consist of USD, YEN or EURO global
bonds
Maximum issuance international bond 20% from
target gross
Issuing the Government Securities using Front
Loading Strategy in the first semester
Indicative Target
Govt.Securities (net) 277,050
Redemption 135,612
Cash Management 15,000
Buyback 3,000
Govt. Securities (gross) 430,662
Domestic 80%
Retail 9%
Non-Retail 71%
International Bond 20%
In billion IDR
10
Government Securities Performance
(billion Rp) (billion Rp)
Incoming and Awarded Bids for SBN Auctions in 2013 &
2014
Bid to cover ratio of SBN in 2014 reached 2.18
times, slightly higher than 2013 of 2.14 times
Average incoming bid of SUN in 2014 reached IDR23,4 trillion (higher than 2013 of IDR18,9 trillion), while for SBSN reached IDR3,6 trilion (slightly lower than 2013 of IDR3,7 trillion).
Awarded Bid in semester I 2014 reached 56,4% Incoming Bids 2013 & 2014 have similar pattern
65.5 62.8 73.6
64.8
35.2 42.4 45.6 46.8
82.8
39.9
22.7
-0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan Feb Mar April Mei Jun Jul Agst Sept Okt Nov Des
Incoming Bid 2013 Incoming Bid 2014
2.46
2.13
2.75
2.28
1.79
1.98
1.52
1.53
2.35 2.66
3.27
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan Feb Mar April Mei Jun Jul Agst Sept Okt Nov
Incoming Bid 2014 Awarded Bid 2014 Bid to Cover Ratio 2014 (RHS)
12
2468
10121416182022
Apr'0
8
Jul'0
8
Oct'0
8
Jan'0
9
Apr'0
9
Jul'0
9
Oct'0
9
Jan'1
0
Apr'1
0
Jul'1
0
Oct'1
0
Jan'1
1
Apr'1
1
Jul'1
1
Oct'1
1
Jan'1
2
Apr'1
2
Jul'1
2
Oct'1
2
Jan'1
3
Apr'1
3
Jul'1
3
Oct'1
3
Jan'1
4
Apr'1
4
Jul'1
4
Oct'1
4
Jan'1
5
5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y
7.55 (5Y), 7.73 (10Y), 8.05 (15Y), 8..23
(IDR Trilion)
Global Financial
Crisis
Eurozone sovereign debt
crisis
[In Percentage]
As of Jan 2, 2015
Activities of the domestic bonds are growing Yields of Benchmark Series steadily decrease
Bid Ask Spread 10 Y Government Bond Turn Over 10 Y Government Bond
As of Jan 2, 2015
As of Dec 31, 2014
Secondary Market Performance
Spread 6.9 bps
(ask 7.739%%,
bid 7.808%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan
-09
Ma
y-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Jan
-10
Ma
y-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Jan
-11
Ma
y-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Jan
-12
Ma
y-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
y-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
y-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Jan
-15
5.73 5.31 5.82 7.83
10.31
6.62 7.10 8.42 7.45 6.44
9.27 8.61 8.45 8.23
0.38 0.41 0.96
0.57
1.27
1.18 0.35
0.91 1.04
0.79
0.36 0.41 0.39 0.98
3.07 6.30
9.39 8.69
7.90
7.13 6.95
6.19 8.59 10.76
11.49
9.93 8.81 9.12
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
OUTRIGHT REPO BANK REPO BI
13
5.12
7.04
5.15
14.12 12.88
10.75 10.53
-
3.00
6.00
9.00
12.00
15.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
LCY 10 Year
Government
Bonds
Latest Yield YTD Change (BP) MTD Change
(BP)
HK 1.920 +6.1 +6.1
ID 7.859 +6.3 +6.3
JP 0.329 0.0 0.0
KR 2.656 +5.1 +5.1
MY 4.150 +0.3 +0.3
PH 3.863 0.0 0.0
SG 2.280 0.0 0.0
TH 2.729 0.0 0.0
US 2.111 -6.1 -6.1
VN 7.230 0.0 0.0
• Market Watch as of Jan 2, 2014
• Source: Asian Bonds Online
Yield GS on peer’s market (a.o. January 2nd, 2014)
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y
2 Jan '15 23 Dec '14
2 Dec '14 9 Feb '12
23 Sep '11 27 Oct '08
13 Sep'05
[in percentage]
Tenor 2-Jan-15 23-Dec-14 2-Dec-14 9-Feb-12 23-Sep-11 27-Oct-08 13 Sep'05
1Y 6.40 6.49 6.19 3.30 5.29 19.37
2Y 7.17 7.22 7.00 4.21 6.01 17.35 14.59
3Y 7.43 7.52 7.35 4.33 6.13 19.93
4Y 7.61 7.82 7.55 4.39 6.54 17.17 14.14
5Y 7.62 7.79 7.57 4.44 6.69 17.46 14.96
6Y 7.72 7.92 7.64 4.79 6.81 17.05 15.24
7Y 7.69 7.92 7.66 4.88 7.08 17.06 16.17
10Y 7.77 7.88 7.66 5.02 7.43 20.91 15.75
15Y 8.09 8.24 7.95 5.47 7.83 16.65 14.12
20Y 8.24 8.33 8.07 5.96 8.20 20.27
30Y 8.61 8.66 8.42 6.17 8.29 20.37
14
Ownership of Tradable Domestic Government
Securities
In 2014, foreign investor ownership record the highest percentage, showing their increasing appetite
on the Indonesia’s government securities.
(In IDR Trillion) `
Banks 299.66 36.73% 335.43 33.70% 359.99 33.56% 355.58 31.42% 420.50 35.06% 407.58 33.38% 375.55 31.04% 373.19 30.79%
Govt Institutions (Bank Indonesia*) 3.07 0.37% 44.44 4.47% 30.44 2.84% 51.19 4.52% 0.00 0.00% 0.38 0.03% 41.63 3.44% 42.19 3.48%
Non-Banks 517.53 63.09% 615.38 61.83% 682.31 63.60% 724.86 64.05% 778.90 64.94% 812.93 66.58% 792.78 65.52% 796.71 65.73%
Mutual Funds 43.19 5.27% 42.50 4.27% 44.15 4.12% 45.80 4.05% 46.11 3.84% 45.46 3.72% 45.79 3.78% 45.84 3.78%
Insurance Company 83.42 10.17% 129.55 13.02% 141.28 13.17% 151.36 13.38% 154.09 12.85% 150.78 12.35% 150.60 12.45% 150.66 12.43%
Foreign Holders 270.52 32.98% 323.83 32.54% 360.91 33.64% 403.59 35.66% 447.37 37.30% 481.20 39.41% 461.35 38.13% 461.88 38.11%
Foreign Govt's&Central Banks** 50.06 6.10% 78.39 7.88% 86.09 8.03% 93.59 8.27% 100.57 8.38% 102.61 8.40% 103.42 8.55% 103.42 8.53%
Pension Fund 56.46 6.88% 39.47 3.97% 39.66 3.70% 38.95 3.44% 42.63 3.55% 42.48 3.48% 43.30 3.58% 43.33 3.58%
Securities Company 0.30 0.04% 0.88 0.09% 0.83 0.08% 0.96 0.08% 0.99 0.08% 0.89 0.07% 0.81 0.07% 0.83 0.07%
Individual 32.48 3.26% 45.75 4.27% 31.42 2.78% 28.88 2.41% 31.91 2.61% 30.41 2.51% 30.39 2.51%
Others 63.64 7.76% 46.68 4.69% 49.72 4.64% 52.78 4.66% 58.83 4.90% 60.21 4.93% 60.51 5.00% 63.77 5.26%
Total 820.27 100% 995.25 100% 1,072.74 100% 1,131.63 100% 1,199.39 100% 1,220.90 100% 1,209.96 100% 1,212.09 100%
1) Including ownership of SBSN (government sukuk).
2) Foreign are consisted of Private Banking, Fund/Asset Management, Securities, Insurance, Pension Fund.
3) Others are consisted of Corporation, Individual, Foundation.
*) Since February 8th, 2008, repo transaction of Government Securities to Bank Indonesia was included.
**) Since November 21, 2014, foreign government(s) was included to the same category as foreign central bank(s).
Dec-14 02-Jan-15Nov-14Mar-14Dec-13Dec-12 Jun-14 Sep-14
15
Domestic Institutional Investors
Pension Fund Insurance Company
Mutual Fund
Rp241.67
Rp326.23Rp356.45 Rp361.37
Rp497.03 Rp497.99
Rp545.54Rp567.13
27.09%
24.01%
21.77%
24.11%
19.74%21.02%
12.95%13.98%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mar-14 Jun-14
Govt. Securities (GS) Bond
Deposit Stock
Mutual Funds Others
Rp90.11
Rp108.39
Rp141.51 Rp136.53
Rp156.45
Rp169.53 Rp164.15 Rp167.23
27.91% 27.43%
21.90%22.64%
19.68%18.36%
19.46%18.33%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mar-14 Jun-14
Govt. Securities (GS) BondDeposit StockMutual Funds Others
45%
37%
33%
28%25%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
Government Securities (GS) Deposit Bond Stock Others % SBN (RHS)
71.48
110.13
180.28
159
142.97
244.32
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK), data
processsed
16
Individual & Retail Investors
Retail Govt Securities investors in primary market Individual Ownership
16,561
27,019
37,072
14,601
10,959 10,410
16,107
26,824
20,418
14,295 17,231 15,487 17,606 17,783
34,692
6,412
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 a.o. Oct 30, 2014
ORI SR SBR
3.09%2.82%
2.51%2.27%
4.20%
3.24%3.28%3.12%2.78%
2.69%
2.58%2.41%
3.86%
2.61%2.51%2.51%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%Nominal (IDR Trillion) RHS
Percent
17
Foreign Investor Activity 2014
Net Buyer (Seller) - Non Resident Foreign Ownership - Proportion by Tenor
[In IDR Trillion]
Foreign investors mostly dominated by high quality long term investors
(1.49)
(29.29)
1.69
(4.99)
8.06
13.11
(8.99)
(2.27)
4.15
(4.37)
(0.08)
10.13
(1.41)
7.83 9.35
19.52
0.68 2.68
8.44
(0.88)
17.97
4.22
(19.98)
2.81
(1.76)
10.13
23.98
6.08
(0.37)
4.82
16.49 15.77
16.10
20.15
6.43
14.67
15.95
13.17 12.49
21.34
(19.84)
0.53
(0.15)
(0.10)
(0.05)
0.00
0.05
0.10
(40.00)
(30.00)
(20.00)
(10.00)
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
Au
g-1
1Se
p-1
1O
ct-1
1N
ov-1
1D
ec-1
1Ja
n-1
2Fe
b-1
2M
ar-1
2A
pr-1
2M
ay-1
2Ju
n-1
2Ju
l-1
2A
ug
-12
Se
p-1
2O
ct-1
2N
ov-1
2D
ec-1
2Ja
n-1
3Fe
b-1
3M
ar-1
3A
pr-1
3M
ay-1
3Ju
n-1
3Ju
l-1
3A
ug
-13
Se
p-1
3O
ct-1
3N
ov-1
3D
ec-1
3Ja
n-1
4Fe
b-1
4M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-1
4Ju
l-1
4A
ug
-14
Se
p-1
4O
ct-1
4N
ov-1
4D
ec-1
4Ja
n 2
-15
Capital Inflows Capital inflows over total foreign holders
10% 12% 8% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
5%8%
3% 5% 5% 4% 5% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
18%17%
16% 13% 11% 15% 15% 15% 16% 15% 15% 15% 16% 15% 15%
21%
25%
28% 32% 38% 34% 33% 33% 33% 34% 34% 34% 33% 34% 34%
46% 38% 45% 44% 41% 40% 41% 41% 42% 43% 42% 43% 42%43%
43%
30.53% 30.80%32.98% 32.54%
33.64%34.59% 35.72% 35.66% 36.33%36.81%37.30% 37.80%39.41% 38.13%
38.11%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 June 14 July 14 Aug 14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 02-Jan-15
>10 >5-10 >2-5 >1-2 0-1 % Foreign Ownership to Total (RHS)
18
Crisis Management Protocol &
Bond Stabilization Framework
Comprehensive Stabilization Framework to Pro-actively
Manage Pressures on Financial Sector
Swap facility arrangements based on international cooperation & Deferred
drawdown option facilities
Implementing Crisis Management
Protocol
Implementing Bond Stabilization
Framework
Enhancing coordination between
government institutions and
continuous dialogue with market
participants
Specific articles in the State Budget
Law that provide flexibility for
Government to take quick mitigation
action if necessary, with Parliament
approval that has to be given within 24
hours
Fiscal Buffers to Prevent and Mitigate Crisis
The FKSSK, Consists of Minister of Finance, BI Governor, Head of Indonesian FSA and Head of
Indonesian Deposit Insurance Corporation, manages the Nationwide Crisis Management Protocol
(CMP) Framework as guidance and procedures for national crisis prevention and mitigation
measures.
The nationwide CMP incorporates the Exchange Rate, Banking, Non-Bank Financial Institution,
Capital Market, Government Bonds Market (SBN), and Fiscal CMPs.
Coordination Meeting is conducted regularly to discuss and assess the current level of Financial
System Stability and current issues related to the financial system
FKSSK has conducted two crisis simulations: Full Dress Simulation (ministerial level) and
activation of pre-emptive instrument (CMIM) at technical level
Crisis Management Protocol
Potential purchase of government bonds by State
Owned Enterprises
Buyback Funds DMO
Budget
SOE
Budget
Other
Gov’t
Budget
Buyback of government bonds by the DMO from the
state budget
Related SOEs
(min. Alert level)
KUN
(State’s General Cash)
(min. Alert level)
Potential purchase of government bonds by the
Treasury Office using the State’s General Cash
(KUN)
Potential purchase of government bonds by the
Indonesia Investment Agency
PIP Investment Funds (min. Alert
Level)
SAL
(min. Crisis Level)
Purchase of government bonds using the
accumulated cash surplus (SAL). Parliament
approval is required
Bond Stabilization Framework
Potential purchase of government bonds by BPJS
Workforce and BPJS Healthcare
BPJS
Budget*
BPJS Workforce and BPJS
Healthcare funds
*Based on MoU between MoF and BPJS (Social Security Agency) Workforce & BPJS Healthcare
that has been signed on Sept 1, 2014.
1
2
3
1
2
20
Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile
Maturity Profile Central Gov’t Debt as of End of Nov’ 2014
Maturity Profile of Central Debt Government by Currency (in trillion Rp)
Maturity Profile of Central Government Debt by Instruments (in trillion Rp)
25.9%
74.1%
Loan
Gov't Sec
14
13398 107 101
142
93 97117
99
163
4322
48 5374
29 31 47 53 7025 10
42 478 10
150
17
64
63 57 56
55
51 4439
34
29
25
21
18 1513
12 1212 11
7
4 32 1
1 1
5
020406080
100120140160180200220240
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
-205
5
Gov't Sec Loan
15
12188 89
6696
62 5274 69
121
4322
48 5374
29 31 47 53 70
6 10 23 23 8 10
8017
75
73 7590
101
82 9082
65
71
2521
18 1513
12 1212 11
7
243 20 25
1 1
74
020406080
100120140160180200220240
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
-205
5
Foreign Denominated
Domestic Denominated 42.9%
57.1%
ForeignDenominated
DomesticDenominated
22
Outstanding Central Gov’t Debt by Instrument
Nominal %
a. Foreign Loan (in billion USD) 65.0 68.6 68.4 63.6 58.4 55.0 25.7%
Bilateral 41.3 42.3 42.1 37.2 31.2 27.7 13.0%
Multilateral 21.5 23.2 23.5 23.8 23.6 23.5 11.0%
Commercial 2.2 3.0 2.8 2.5 3.2 3.7 1.7%
Suppliers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0%
b Domestic Loan (in billion USD) - 0.0 0.1 0.19 0.2 0.2 0.1%
c. Government Securities (in billion USD) 104.2 118.4 131.0 140.8 136.3 158.6 74.2%
Foreign Currency Denominated 15.2 18.0 21.6 27.4 32.8 36.7 17.2%
Rupiah Denominated 89.0 100.4 109.4 113.4 103.5 121.9 57.0%
Total Central Government Debt
(in billion USD)169.2 187.0 199.5 194.89 213.9
Total Central Government Debt
(in trilion IDR)1,590.9 1,681.7 1,808.9 2,375.5 2,608.1
Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/USD1) 9,400.0 8,991.0 9,068.0 12,189.0 12,196.0
GDP (in trillion IDR) 5,613.4 6,422.9 7,427.1 9,084.0
Debt to GDP Ratio 28.3% 26.2% 24.4% 24.0% 26.2%
Nov'14
2011 2012 2013Description 2009
9,670.0
2010
1,977.7
204.5
8,241.9
23
Outstanding Central Gov’t Debt by Currency
2009 2010 2011
Original Currency
IDR (in trillion) 836.3 902.6 993.0 1,098.0 1,263.9 1,489.2
USD (in billion) 37.1 39.6 43.9 49.8 56.8 60.9
JPY (in billion) 2,713.8 2,689.8 2,589.8 2,498.8 2,395.3 2,258.0
EUR (in billion) 6.0 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.2 5.2
Other currencies
Equivalent in Billion USD
IDR 89.0 100.4 109.5 113.5 103.7 122.1 57.1%
USD 37.1 39.8 43.9 49.8 56.8 60.9 28.5%
JPY 29.4 33.1 33.4 29.1 22.8 19.1 8.9%
EUR 8.6 7.2 6.4 6.0 5.8 6.5 3.1%
Other currencies 5.2 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.2 2.4%
Total Eq. in Billion USD 169.2 187.0 199.5 204.5 194.9 213.9
Equivalent in Trillion IDR
IDR 836.3 902.8 993.0 1,098.0 1,263.9 1,489.2
USD 348.6 357.6 397.9 481.9 692.0 743.2
JPY 276.0 297.6 302.5 281.2 278.3 233.1
EUR 80.7 65.0 58.5 57.5 71.1 79.7
Other currencies 49.1 58.6 57.1 59.1 70.2 62.9
Total Eq. in Trillion IDR 1,590.7 1,681.7 1,808.9 1,977.7 2,375.5 2,608.1
Foreign Currency Portion 47.4% 46.3% 45.1% 44.5% 46.8% 42.9%
Exchange Rate Assumption USD/IDR 9,400 8,991 9,068 9,670 12,189.0 12,196.0
Nov-14
-----------------------Multiple Currencies -----------------------
20132012
24
Interest Rate Risk Steadily Declining Exchange Rate Risk on Downward Trend
Long Average Years to Maturity Debt Maturity Evenly Spread
Reduction in Central Government Debt Portfolio Risk
22.020.3
18.816.2 16.0
14.8
28.226.1 25.9
22.5 23.220.9
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3-2014
Interest Rate Risk
Variable rate ratio [%] Refixing rate [%]
13.4 12.1 11.0 10.6 12.2 11.4
47.4 46.2 45.1 44.446.7
43.3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3-2014
Exchange Rate Risk
FX Debt to GDP ratio (%) FX Debt to total debt ratio (%)
9.7
9.5
9.3
9.7
9.6
9.9
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3-2014
Average Time To Maturity (ATM)-Years
Average Time to Maturity (in percentage)
7.6 7.1 8.2 7.2 8.6 8.3
20.3 20.822.7 21.5 21.8 20.8
33.2 34.2 34.632.4 33.4 33.9
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3-2014
Debt Maturing in 1, 3 and 5 Years
Maturity debt portion < 1 year (%) Maturity debt portion < 3 year (%)
Maturity debt portion < 5 year (%)
Risk indicator in good condition, even there is pressure from rupiah depreciation
Risk indicator
shows that there are improvements in interest rate, risk and stability in exchange and refinancing risk
25
END OF PRESENTATION Directorate General of Debt Management Ministry of Finance of Republic of Indonesia Directorate of Government Debt Securities Frans Seda building, 4th floor, Jl. Wahidin Raya No. 1, Jakarta Pusat – Postal Code: 10710 Phone: +6221 3810175 Fax. : +6221 3846516 Site: www.djpu.kemenkeu.go.id