GET OUT THE VOTE The Leadership Institute GOTV
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GET OUT THE VOTE
The Leadership Institute GOTV
True or False?
GOTV should be focused on getting as many voters out to the polls as possible.
The Leadership Institute GOTV
The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV
Objective
Get out YOUR vote of identified supporters.
Target supporters and swing voters who you identified through microtargeting and previous voter identification efforts.
GOTV
Low-propensity voters
vs.
High-propensity voters
The Leadership Institute GOTV
The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV
Know the election laws in your state, and prepare a timeline based on voting schedule.
Absentee ballots.
Early voting.
Military voting.
Election day voting.
The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: Absentee ballots
Important considerations.
When are absentee ballots sent out.
How quickly absentee ballots are returned.
Postmarked or returned by Election Day.
Who is casting absentee ballots.
Low propensity voters are more valuable.
The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: AB/EV
2012 Election: Analysis of AB/EV in Florida.
Obama Romney
High-propensity voter 58% 71%
Low-propensity voter 27% 22%
Never voted 15% 7%
The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: Absentee ballot chase program
Request
Return Confirm
Contact
The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: Early voting
Important considerations.
Know satellite voting locations and times.
Early voting program.
Hold large events near early voting locations.
Petition to get satellite voting locations at advantageous locations and times.
The Leadership Institute GOTV
Mobilization methods
Door-to-Door.
Phone calls.
Direct mail.
Robocalls.
Literature drops.
Television ads.
Radio ads.
Online ads.
Social media.
Events.
GOTV
The Leadership Institute GOTV
Get Out The Vote: How to Increase
Voter Turnout
Donald P. Green
Alan S. Gerber
GOTV
GOTV: Door-to-door
The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: Door-to-door
Most effective method for GOTV
Effectiveness: 1 vote per 14 contacts.
Estimate 6 contacts per hour.
Mobilizing effect for the entire household.
GOTV: Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney
Advanced data modeling makes person-to-person contact more efficient and effective.
The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: Phone calls
The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: Phone calls
Volunteer phone calls
Effectiveness: 1 vote per 38 contacts.
Estimate 16 contacts per hour.
Commercial live calls
No special coaching: 1 vote per 180 contacts.
With special coaching: 1 vote per 35 contacts.
Warning!
From 2008 to 2012, the contact rate for phone calls in the Obama campaign dropped from 23% to 16%.
The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: Direct mail
The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: Direct mail
Partisan direct mail
Large number of studies show the average effect cannot be large.
There are exceptions based on the message.
Nonpartisan direct mail
Effectiveness: 1 vote per 200 contacts.
Borderline insignificant.
Question
Based on current research, what is the most effective message to use in a GOTV appeal?
The Leadership Institute GOTV
The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: Social pressure experiment
Field experiment with four treatments
1. Do your civic duty and vote!
2. You are being studied!
3. Who votes is public information!
4. What if your neighbors knew whether you voted?
Context: Conducted in the 2006 Michigan primary election among 344,084 registered voters
The Leadership Institute GOTV
Increase in turnout compared to control group
1. Civic duty mailing: 1.8%
2. Hawthorne mailing: 2.6%
3. Self mailing: 4.9%
4. Neighbors mailing: 8.1%
Context: Conducted in the 2006 Michigan primary election among 344,084 registered voters
GOTV: Social pressure experiment
Most effective GOTV message
Apply social pressure to motivate people to vote.
The Leadership Institute GOTV
The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV
Final Thoughts
Target GOTV efforts to YOUR supporters.
Leverage data to make GOTV efforts more efficient and effective.
Door-to-door is the most effective mobilization method.
Applying social pressure is the most effective way to drive an unlikely voter to the polls.
QUESTIONS
The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV
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