5.9% 5% 2.9% 2.5% 2016 Vehicle Sales The automotive market has been a consistent bright spot for metals makers over the past couple of years even as other end-users have become increasingly volatile. Demand up and down the supply chain has remained strong, and steel, aluminum, stainless steel and other metals products show no signs of slowing down. This follows a 2015 that set a record for the number of vehicles sold in a single year in the U.S., the culmination of several years of steady recovery from the depths of the Great Recession. Through the first quarter of 2016, U.S. vehicle sales are on a pace to wind up between 17.55 and 18 million units on an annualized basis. Source: Motor Intelligence Source: National Automobile Dealers Association Source: Investing.com Source: Ward's Automotive Report Source: Ward's Automotive Report Market Share by Type of Light Vehicle 2010 v. 2015 CUV Pickup Luxury Car SUV Van Large Car Small car Mid-size car 2016 Light Vehicles Through February Percentage of Light Vehicle Composition by Material 2015 v.2035 Source: U.S. Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Program Conventional Steel AHSS Aluminum Non Metallics Other Fuel usage Average fleet-wide CAFE performance targets and projected achieved performance levels for model years 2015-2025 in miles per gallon Sources: EPA; National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Source: Wall Street Journal Top U.S. Auto sales by manufacturer “The bears argue that the industry has peaked and is ready to roll over. They often cite the fact that the U.S. auto industry is in its seventh year of expansion, margins are as good as they get, and a recession is right around the corner. On the other hand, a number of people, including GM, believe that the industry is plateauing, with many years of strong performance ahead.” Chuck Stevens, GM executive vice president and chief financial officer Source: AMM © General Motors Good Road Conditions 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 60 50 40 30 0 33.8 31.5 32.7 34.8 36 38.2 39.9 42 44.2 45.6 46.2 35.5 36.6 38.3 40 41.7 44.7 46.8 49.4 52 54.5 CAFE Target CAFE Projected Achieved 42.9 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 4.5m 18m As a result, aluminum and steel continue to slug it out for the future of meeting auto end-user needs. Although the CAFE standards may change over time, the strength of the automotive market is not expected to change significantly in the near-term future. The lightweighting movements to aluminum and new steel products have been driven by changing and pending Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards from the federal government. (Under these standards, the final target and the anticipated actual performance are both projected values due to uncertainty regarding the final composition of vehicle types in the new-vehicle fleets for future model years.) A rapid increase in new light-duty vehicle fuel economy has occurred since late 2007, according to a recent University of Michigan study. American automakers have benefitted in recent years from the combination of new fuel standards and improved auto metals. For example, Detroit did well in auto sales last year. This has meant an increase in sales of not just all vehicles, but of larger vehicles. Cross-over Utility Vehicles and SUVs now account for more than 1/3 of all light vehicle sales. The Ford F-150, which features an aluminum body, has been one of the bigger success stories in those categories. For the first two months of 2016, the Ford F-Series pickups led all sales. 54.5 20 25 23 19 8 14 10.5 22 4 17.6% 14.9% 14.3% 12.8% New Light Vehicle Sales by Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Some of this success has been based on affordable fuel, which has seen oil prices mostly dropping for nearly two years. 16.95m 16.5m 16.09m 13.19m 10.4m 11.55m 12.73m 14.44m 15.52m 16.44m 17.47m 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Monthly Averages, Brent Crude Oil Prices 2014-2016 $48.37 $49.56 $44.61 $37.28 $34.74 $35.97 $41.38 Prices (USD/barrel) 2014 2016 2015 Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar Apr May $112.36 $103.19 $94.67 $85.86 $70.15 $57.56 $53.95 $64.84 $57.08 $67.45 $65.56 $63.59 $52.51 $54.15 $106.02 24.5% 27.9% 20.5% 18.9% 17.8% 18.7% 13.9% 13.3% 7.6% 7.4% © 2016 American Metal Market Subscribe >> 112,237 68,493 59,253 54,448 51,704 50,476 47,077 46,550 45,319 44,458 80,999 Ford F - Series PU Chevrolet Silverado PU Dodge Ram PU Toyota Camry Honda Civic Toyota Corolla / Matrix Nissan Altima Toyota RAV4 Honda Accord Ford Fusion Honda CR-V 6.9% 6.3%
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5.9% 5% 2.9% 2.5%
2016 Vehicle Sales
The automotive market has been a consistent bright spot for metals makers over the past couple of years even as other end-users have become increasingly volatile. Demand up and down the supply chain has remained strong, and steel, aluminum, stainless steel and other metals products show no signs of slowing down.
This follows a 2015 that set a record for the number of vehicles sold in a single year in the U.S., the culmination of several years of steady recovery from the depths of the Great Recession.
Through the first quarter of 2016, U.S. vehicle sales are on a pace to wind up between 17.55 and 18 million units on an annualized basis.
Source: Motor Intelligence
Source: National Automobile Dealers Association
Source: Investing.com
Source: Ward's Automotive Report
Source: Ward's Automotive Report
Market Share by Type of Light Vehicle 2010 v. 2015
CUV Pickup Luxury Car SUV Van Large CarSmall carMid-size car
2016 Light Vehicles Through February
Percentage of Light Vehicle Composition by Material 2015 v.2035
Source: U.S. Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Program
Conventional Steel
AHSS
Aluminum
Non Metallics
Other
Fuel usageAverage fleet-wide CAFE performance targets and projected achieved performance levels
for model years 2015-2025 in miles per gallon
Sources: EPA; National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
Source: Wall Street Journal
Top U.S. Auto sales by manufacturer
“The bears argue that the industry has peaked and is ready to roll over. They often cite the fact that the U.S. auto industry is in its seventh year of expansion, margins are as good as they get, and a recession is right around the corner. On the other hand, a number of people, including GM, believe that the industry is plateauing, with many years of strong performance ahead.”Chuck Stevens, GM executive vice president and chief financial officer Source: AMM
© G
ener
al M
otor
s
Good Road Conditions
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
60
50
40
30
0
33.8
31.532.7
34.8 3638.2 39.9
4244.2 45.6 46.2
35.5 36.638.3
4041.7
44.746.8
49.452
54.5CAFE Target
CAFE Projected Achieved
42.9
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016
4.5m 18m
As a result, aluminum and steel continue to slug it out for the future of meeting auto end-user needs.
Although the CAFE standards may change over time, the strength of the automotive market is not expected to change significantly in the near-term future.
The lightweighting movements to aluminum and new steel products have been driven by changing and pending Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards from the federal government. (Under these standards, the final target and the anticipated actual performance are both projected values due to uncertainty regarding the final composition of vehicle types in the new-vehicle fleets for future model years.)
A rapid increase in new light-duty vehicle fuel economy has occurred since late 2007, according to a recent University of Michigan study. American automakers have benefitted in recent years from the combination of new fuel standards and improved auto metals. For example, Detroit did well in auto sales last year.
This has meant an increase in sales of not just all vehicles, but of larger vehicles. Cross-over Utility Vehicles and SUVs now account for more than 1/3 of all light vehicle sales.
The Ford F-150, which features an aluminum body, has been one of the bigger success stories in those categories. For the first two months of 2016, the Ford F-Series pickups led all sales.
54.520
2523
198
1410.5
224
17.6%14.9% 14.3% 12.8%
New Light Vehicle Sales by Year
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Some of this success has been based on affordable fuel, which has seen oil prices mostly dropping for nearly two years.
16.95m 16.5m 16.09m
13.19m
10.4m11.55m
12.73m
14.44m15.52m
16.44m17.47m
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Monthly Averages, Brent Crude Oil Prices 2014-2016
$48.37
$49.56$44.61
$37.28$34.74
$35.97
$41.38
Pric
es (U
SD/b
arre
l)
2014 20162015
JunJul
AugSept
OctNov
Dec JunJul
AugSept
OctNov
DecJan
FebMar Jan
FebMar
AprMay
$112.36
$103.19
$94.67
$85.86
$70.15
$57.56
$53.95
$64.84
$57.08
$67.45 $65.56
$63.59
$52.51$54.15
$106.02
24.5%27.9%
20.5%18.9%
17.8%18.7%
13.9% 13.3%
7.6% 7.4%
© 2016 American Metal Market
Subscribe >>
112,237
68,493
59,253
54,448
51,704
50,476
47,077
46,550
45,319
44,458
80,999
Ford F - Series PU
Chevrolet Silverado PU
Dodge Ram PU
Toyota Camry
Honda Civic
Toyota Corolla / Matrix
Nissan Altima
Toyota RAV4
Honda Accord
Ford Fusion
Honda CR-V
6.9% 6.3%
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