1 Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies Presented by: Louis Paquette Publisher, EGS www.emerginggrowthstocks. ca “PRESS THE “SPACEBAR” ON YOUR KEYBOARD TO ADVANCE
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies
Presented by:
Louis Paquette
Publisher, EGS
www.emerginggrowthstocks.ca
“PRESS THE “SPACEBAR” ON YOUR KEYBOARD TO ADVANCE
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies
Question: In ONE WORD, what is the biggest challenge facing stock market investors and speculators?
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies
UNCERTAINTY• Over: • Overall market conditions• Interest rates• Commodity prices• Specific company performance• Government intervention• Odds of discovering a mineable economic deposit• Competition• Etc.
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies
So what is certain?• Stock rise an average 7% per annum over time, but not consistently• There is a rhythm to asset price movement (cycles) from overbought
to oversold, from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic• A contrarian can take advantage of this to boost returns and reduce
losses
Optimism
Pessimism
Stocks
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies
has strong annual seasonal cyclical tendencies
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies
Once Gold is overbought – it always returns to the moving average
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies
HUI Index Another strong tendency: Gold strength seems to alternate from year to year.
StrongWeakWeak StrongStrong
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies
An aggressive way to play the cycle Horizon BetaPro ETFs HGD & HGU
Buy HGD anytime now on dips (on rallies in gold price) sell this summer
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies
Advantages of Horizon’s ETF’s
1. Go Long or Short (“U” UP or “D” Down)
2. I.E.: HGD or HGU
3. Shorting and leverage without the hazards of short selling or options & futures
4. 2 X Leverage • If Gold moves 2% down, • HUI 4% • HGD 6%
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies Example of the leverage: 1-Day
return using the HGU.TSX ETF on Jan 2,2008
Close Dec 31
Close Jan 2
Change Percent
Gold (Feb) $838 $860 +$22 +2.6%
HUI Index 409 435 +26 +6.0%
HGU.TSX ETF
24.22 27.85 +3.63 +15.0%
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies
5 month returns
5-Months August low
Close Jan 8
Change Percent
Gold (Feb) $660 $880 +$220 +33%
HUI Index 300 458 +158 +52%
HGU ETF 16 32.20 +16 +100%!
*All in Rounded numbers
The HGU.TSX ETF clearly delivers superior returns
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August low
Close Jan 10
Change Percent
iShares XGD $65 $90 +$25 +38%
streetTRACKS GLD
$64 $88 +$24 +37%
Central Gold Trust GTU
$24 $35 +$11 +45%
Horizons BetaPro HGU
$16 $33 +$17 +$106%
Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies HGU vs. Other Gold ETFs
5 month returns
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Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies Specific Suggested trades
1. Buy HGU (Horizon Gold UP)• At Cycle Bottom (June to August)• Sell at Cycle Top (Feb to May)
2. Buy HGD (Horizon Gold DOWN)• At Cycle Top (Feb to May)• Sell Cycle Bottom (June to August)
Web Site: www.hbpetfs.com/hgu.asp