Going against the flow Travel patterns in Southern France: A Vulnerability to flash floods Isabelle RUIN ASP Post-Doc NCAR - [email protected]1- Statement of research problem 2- Objectives, study area and methods 3- Main results 4- Conclusion and looking ahead
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Going against the flow Travel patterns in Southern France: A Vulnerability to flash floods
Going against the flow Travel patterns in Southern France: A Vulnerability to flash floods. Isabelle RUIN ASP Post-Doc NCAR - [email protected]. 1- Statement of research problem 2- Objectives, study area and methods 3- Main results 4- Conclusion and looking ahead. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Going against the flow
Travel patterns in Southern France: A Vulnerability to flash floods
Comparison between often flooded road sections and
risk perceptions
ALÈSALÈS
NIMESNIMESNIMESNIMES
Main streamsEast rural zoneSouth urban zoneWest rural zoneNorth urban zone
76 to 100% of users51 to 75% of users26 to 50% of users1 to 25% of users
Road sections prone to flooding
Road sections used and peceived as non dangerous
Road sections used and peceived as dangerous by:
Motorists’
danger
perception on
daily itineraries
Perceptions of vulnerability
✓ Rapidity of watershed time response is mostly underestimated, specially for small catchments
✓ More than 60% ignore that 2 feet of moving water may sweep a car away while critical water depth for a person (to be knocked off their feet) is better evaluated
✓ Only 35% of the residents think Météo-France Orange alert is to a warning for fatal danger, but 55% associate it with danger on their own daily itinerary
Traveling during a flash flood event is known to be dangerous, but thresholds of dangerousness are hardly perceived
East rural zoneSouth urban zoneWest rural zoneNorth urban zone
Main itineraries taken by the 200 interviewees
High rate usageMidle rate usageLow rate usageVery low rate usage
Source : DDE30, Cognitive mapping survey, 2006. N = 200
Ruin, 2007
NIMESNIMES
ALÈSALÈS➁
➁
➁ At-risk mobility of rural retired- 20% of the sample
- frequent but little hazardous travels - weak perception of risk on roads
Three kinds of at-risk mobility in the Gard area
➀ Commuting is highly risky- 30% of the sample
- frequent and highly hazardous
travels- weak perception of risk on roads
➀
➂ Inter-state mobility fairly risky- 10% of the sample
- unfrequent and fairly hazardous travels- weak perception of risk on roads
➂
3- Main results:
Contextual factors
1. Influence of spatial and settings
2. Main constraints to evacuation
3. Main constraints to travel’s flexibility
Influence of spatial and temporal settings
✓ Stakes located at the confluence of watersheds of different sizes
✓ Succession or simultaneity of flood peaks due to differences in catchment sizes
✓ Vulnerability variations within the time of the day, week, season...
16
Catchment
Hydographic network Catchment outletRelief
1000 km2
20 km2
Main constraints to evacuation
✓ Afraid of spreading the family:
37% tourists
✓ Feeling of safety: 27% residents
✓ Afraid of leaving pets: 18%
residents
Afraid of spreading the family
Reasons for non-instant evacuation
No reason
Others
Handicap (me or relative’s)
Feeling of safety
Afraid to leave
pets
Afraid of spreading the family
Afraid of loosing goods
Don’t know
Residents (N=908)
Tourists (N=258)
Don’t know
Evacuation refusal
Wait and see
Look for information
Instant evacuation
Response to evacuation order
Residents (N=922)
Tourists (N=258)
Réaction alors qu'une alerte est déclenchée pendant que les enfants sont à
l'école
46%
44%
4% 6%
Va immédiatement chercher ses enfantsrien, vous savez qu'ils sont pris en charge par l'étab.Demande à un parent ou ami d'aller les chercherAutres
Parental reaction to warnings when children are in schools
Immediatly pick up their childrenNothing, you know they are safe in school You ask a relative to pick them upOthers
Workers would
hardly cancel their
travels
Main constraints to travel’s flexibility
In reaction to warnings, 50% of
the parents would pick up their
children from school.
Responses to Météo-France watches (orange) and warnings (red) for heavy precipitations
Cancel Travels
Search information
Unchanged activities and/or travel patterns
WorkersResponse to orange alert
Non-workersResponse to red alert
Workers Non-workers
Mean deviation
4- Conclusion and looking
ahead
1. Complementarity of qualitative and quantitive
methods in behavioral studies 2. Synthesis of vulnerability factors in crisis period
3. Research perspectives
Complementarity of qualitative and quantitive methods in behavioral
studies
1- The cautious58 % (sample 2004)
2- Workers constrained by professional activities13 % (sample 2004)
Those avoiding evacuation
3 % (Sample. 2004)
Synthesis of vulnerability factors in crisis period
• Age (< 25 / > 65 years
old)
• Gender
• Type of mobility
• New residents
• Language barrier
(tourists)
• Area of living (ZUsud)
• very small
catchments (< 20km2)
• Confluence of
watersheds of
differents sizes
• Time of impact: rush-
hours / night...
• Parental duty
• Professional activity
1. Observe behaviors in both normal daily life and
extreme weather conditions
2. Organize extreme events post investigations
Research perspectives (1)
QuickTime™ et undécompresseur TIFF (non compressé)
sont requis pour visionner cette image.
Need for Behavioral
verification surveys to
assess adaptative capacities
of drivers in different
weather conditions:
QuickTime™ et undécompresseur TIFF (non compressé)
sont requis pour visionner cette image.
Research perspectives (2) :
Behavioral survey project: NCAR ASP proposal
(2008-2009)
1. Observe driver’s behavior at low water
crossings in Texas (Austin)
Quantitative survey:
• Use of video, car counting
Qualitative survey:
• Use Youtube video, travels
log and in-depth interviews
Research perspectives (3) : DELUGE
network E. Gruntfest submitted NSF proposal (2008-2013)2. Disasters: Evolving Lessons Using Global
Experience
Focus on post-event field studies for floods to maximize interactions between social scientists, hydrologists and meteorologists
New guidelines on post-event investigations for use by integrated teams of physical scientists, social scientists, and practitioners.