Fast & Fun Facts Free From and Gluten Free Define the scope of the Canadian gluten-free market market Provide some comparisons to US gluten-free activity activity Help us understand the gluten-free consumer Provide some understanding on future market activity Gluten-Free What Is Next?
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Fast & Fun Facts
Free From and Gluten Free
Define the scope of the Canadian gluten-free market
market
Provide some comparisons to US gluten-free activity
activity
Help us understand the gluten-free consumer
Provide some understanding on future market activity
Gluten-Free What Is Next?
Setting The Stage…
Secondary Research & Package Facts & Markets & Markets
Research Reports:
Sales data for publicly trade companies
Consulted with gluten-free manufacturers & retail outlets
Utilized 2012 consumer survey database from Canada
Setting The Stage 9.0 MM Canadians are gluten free
1% have celiac disease with only 10%
diagnosed
6% have gluten-sensitivity
23% are gluten avoiders for non medical reasons
Google Gluten-Free Searches
•
Gluten-Free Searches…
Google Gluten vs GMO vs AllergenGluten-Free vs GMO vs Allergy…
Social Media Influence on Gluten-Free
• Twitter – I am eating a gluten-free cake
Fa Face Book – I like eating a gluten-free cake
• You Tube – This is how I eat my gluten-free cake
• Linked In – My skills include eating gluten-free cake
• Instagram – Here’s a classic pic of the gluten-free cake I ate
• Blog- Here’s my gluten-free cake eating experience
• Pinterest – Here’s my recipe for the gluten-free cake
• Four Square – This is where I am eating the gluten-free cake
Social Media Influences on Gluten-Free
NPD IN GLUTEN/LACTOSE FREE CONTINUES TO BUILD
New product introductions of gluten-free & low/no/reduced lactose food & drink, globally, 2009-2013
Source: Mintel GNPD7
NPD in Gluten/Lactose Free Continues to Grow Worldwide…
Gluten-Free Importance By Country…
Market Size???
Market Size?Canadian Market Size???
Market growth is projected to continue due to:
Testing of both CD & GI will continue to improve, and more be tested – therefore more people will be diagnosed
More young people will become more aware of intolerances / sensitivities – and will be more likely to act upon them
More young people will also see GF as a healthy alternative More innovation will drive appeal and interest in the As product quality improves, barriers to purchase will be Canada is following the US with the category:
• Becoming more normalised & sophisticated• Increased distribution & space in traditional retail
Growth of the Free-From category (Free-From means not desirable)
Canadian Market Size???
Canadian Market Size???
Market Size?
Key Segments of the gluten-free category in Canada are:
Category $ Value % Share
Snack Foods 193.9MM 27.7
Breads/Cereals/Grains 173.6MM 24.8
Frozen or refrigerated
prepared foods143.5MM 20.5
Sweet baked goods 61.6MM 8.8
Ingredients & baking
mixes60.9MM 8.7
Dry packaged dinner/side
dish mixes55.3MM 7.9
Other 11.2MM 1.6
Canadian Market Size???
• Canada versus the US in Key Categories… (est numbers using several sources)
Category $ US % US $ Canada % Canada
Breads/Cookies/Snacks $2,524 B 25.5 $336.5 MM 52.7
Dairy/dairy Alternatives $2,249 B 22.7 NA NA
Beverages $1,977 B 20.0 NA NA
Meats/Meat Alternatives $ 868.0 MM 8.8 $86.8 MM 13.6
Frozen/Refrigerated Meals $ 868.0 MM 8.8 $112.5 MM 17.6
Condiments/Seasonings/
Spreads
$ 819.0 MM 8.2 $8.7 MM 1.4
Dinner Mixes/Sides/Pasta $ 45.6 MM 0.5 $43.3 MM 6.7
Ingredient/Baking Mixes $ 497.0 MM 5.0 $49.7 MM 7.8
Subtotal $9,867.6 B 100.0 $637.5 MM 100.0
Canada Vs US Market Size???
Category size is quite different when Canada and the US are compared:
Canada does not permit gluten-free on products like water, dairy (i.e. if it does not contain it originally)
Meat category falls under different legislation in the US
Canada is more developed and more medically driven vs the US celebrity driven market
Canada vs US Market Size???
Regionality ???
Where Consumers Shop…
The Free-From Consumer…
Reasons for Gluten - Free Consumption
100%
39% Digestive
Health
31% Nutritional
Value
25%
Lose Weight
5%
“Treat” Celiac
Disease
The Facts Reasons for Gluten - Free Consumption The Facts Reasons for Gluten - Free Consumption Reasons for Gluten - Free Consumption
Reasons for Gluten - Fror
Gluten - Free Consumption
mptioReasons for Gluten - Free Consumption
The Facts Reasons for Gluten - Free Consumption The Facts Reasons for Gluten - Free Consumption Gluten-Free Symptoms...
The Gluten-Free Consumer
The Gluten-Free Consumer- 2.5% Factor
The Gluten-Free Consumer- 2.5% FactorThe Gluten-Free Consumer- 2.5% FactorThe Gluten-Free Consumer- 2.5% Factor
The Boulder Foods Gluten-Free Consumer
The Gluten-Free ConsumerThe Gluten-Free ConsumerThe Gluten-Free ConsumerReasons For Buying Gluten-Free…
Packaged Facts defines the marketers as:
Dedicated those who make only
gluten-free items (i.e. Kinnikinnick,
El Peto, Enjoy Life etc.)
Committed - known for health oriented lines (i.e. Nature’s Path)
Accommodating – reformulating existing items and adding gluten-free versions
Key Players
Key Players Competitive Landscape
New product launches have been the most
widely used strategy in this market.
Partnerships and collaboration of the business
entities is the second most sought after growth
strategy.
75% New products
7% Expansion
12% Agreements
6% Mergers &
Acquisitions
Key Players …
Udi’s has a 9% share of the £9.1 MM GF Bread Category
Udi’s leads the £15 MM GF Bread Category
…And Will Double Again in 2013
Udi’s Gluten Free
Foods = 73% of
Category Growth2011 2012
SPINScan latest 52 wks ending 12-26-11
Key Players … Boulder Canadian Growth
The key players in the market have
tended to be the traditional players
Mega marketers have not been picked
up by this report
Research numbers for 2014 should
demonstrate some significant changes
in the market penetration and SOM by
the new players
Key Players …
Growth Opportunities …
Growth Opportunities …
The mega-marketer has now entered the category and 2014 will certainly be interesting from a category growth and share taking perspective
Private label and mega marketers are expected to increase the number of offerings substantially and market growth is expected to continue to demonstrate strong growth
Key categories of interest are: deli meats, vodka, almond milk, tortilla chips, dressings & marinades
Beer, baked sweets and bread products are also expected to show strong growth and interest by consumers
Growth Opportunities …
New product introductions of gluten-free & low/no/reduced lactose food & drink, globally, by company, 2009-2013 (% of launches)
37
Source: Mintel GNPD
Launches By Company…
Private Label share of new introductions of gluten-free & low/no/reduced lactose food & drink, globally, 2009-2013
2013 year to August
Source: Mintel GNPD
38
Retailer Vs Brand Launches…
The next natural products consumer
Stealth Health: How to Sneak Age-Defying,
Disease-Fighting Habits into Your Life
without Really Trying.
From hemp to celery
Walking & napping
Small changes that make a big difference
What Is Next? Stealth - Health…
The gluten-free market appears to be substantive ($700.0MM) and growing in Canada (+10% per year)
The market size is still not clearly defined as many category segments have not been included (e.g. deli category, dairy)
The estimated 2.5% to 30% of Canadians consuming gluten-free products appears consistent with other category research
The Canadian consumer seems to come from the “Free-From” category and appears to be in the category for the long term based upon a need to avoid certain allergen elements in their food (i.e. dairy, nuts, egg, gluten)
Conclusions…
The report talks to consolidation of gluten-free specialty companies however, Mega Marketer participation demonstrates some very different market activity & dynamics with larger CPG organizations playing very significant roles
Key categories continue to be snack foods and baked goods
However, deli meats, beer, vodka, dressings & marinades are showing strong growth with numerous new product entries
Conclusions…
Canada and the US have some distinct differences in product usage, consumer rationale and legislation
Ontario appears to be a large under serviced market opportunity and Quebec seems over serviced
The retail landscape has shifted to a grocery dominance but box store and Walmart endless aisle strategies are important with further market shifts expected
Online is still under developed in the category
Conclusions…Conclusions…
Consumers are not limited in definition by sex, age, income or regionality (i.e. everyone is gluten-free)
The Canadian consumer seems to be engaged in the category for the long haul as they are motivated by medical and health reasons and not celebrity endorsement
The new product entries by retailers and non dedicated mega-manufacturers has really provided stimulus to the category and this strong growth is expected to continue
Conclusions…
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