GLOBIOM Methodology and implementation P. Havlík, M. Herrero, H. Valin, M. Obersteiner International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Kenya Agrimonde-Terra: Animal Productions. Food and feed future demand. CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
GLOBIOM Methodology and implementation. P. Havlík , M. Herrero , H. Valin , M. Obersteiner International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Kenya. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
GLOBIOMMethodology and implementation
P. Havlík, M. Herrero, H. Valin, M. ObersteinerInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), AustriaInternational Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Kenya
Agrimonde-Terra: Animal Productions. Food and feed future demand. CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
Outline
1. Model overview
2. Livestock sector modelling
3. Scenarios (SSPs)
4. Results
5. Conclusions
2
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
1. Model overview
3
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
GLOBIOM: Global Biosphere Management ModelPartial equilibrium model: Agriculture, Forestry, Bioenergy
4
DEMAND
SUPPLY
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
Supply functionsimplicit – based on spatially explicit Leontief production functions:
production system 1 (grass based) productivity 1 + constant cost 1production system 2 (mixed) productivity 2 + constant cost 2
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
5 SSPs along 2 dimensions
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathways (SSPs).
(O’Neil, 2012)
25
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
26
World population
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
27
World GDP per capita
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
28
Semi-quantitative elements: Land use and Agriculture
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
29
Crop yield development
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
30
Projected feed conversion efficiencies
[kg
prot
ein
prod
uct /
kg
prot
ein
feed
]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
31
Human diet preferences [kcal/cap/day]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
32
Losses and wastes development in the Oilseeds&Pulses sector [%]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
4. Results
33
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
34
Consumption per capita – Ruminant meat – World [kg/cap/y]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
35
Consumption per capita – Monogastric meat – World [kg/cap/y]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
36
Consumption per capita – Dairy – World [kg/cap/y]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
37
Animal calorie consumption in 2050 [kcal/cap/day]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
38
Production – Ruminant meat – World [000 tonnes]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
39
Production – Monogastric meat – World [000 tonnes]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
40
Production – Dairy – World [000 tonnes]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
41
Feed – Coarse grains – World [000 tonnes]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
42
Production – Coarse grains – World [000 tonnes]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
43
Area – Coarse grains – World [mio ha]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
44
Commodity price index
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
45
LatinAmericaCarib NorthAmerica Europe Oceania0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
SSP1SSP2SSP3
Bovine meat exports [000 tonnes]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
46
Bovine meat imports [000 tonnes]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
47
Bovine meat production by system [000 tonnes]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
48
Average crop yield change over 2000-2050 [%]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
49
Additional nitrogen consumption compared to 2000 [%]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
50
Additional irrigation water consumption compared to 2000 [%]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
51
Cropland expansion 2000-2050 [Mio Ha]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
52
Grassland expansion 2000-2050 [Mio Ha]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
53
Net forest area change 2000-2050 [Mio Ha]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
54
Greenhouse gas emissions - World [Mio tonnes CO2eq]
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
5. Conclusions
55
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013
56
Further reading
AnimalChange deliverablesD2.1. Storylines for livestock sector scenarios in EU, studied SICA regions and global level, consistent with the IPCC AR5 detailed for the livestock sector
D2.2. Preliminary scenarios of the developments in agricultural commodity markets, livestock production systems, and land use and land cover
Journal articlesHavlík, P., Valin, H., Mosnier, A., Obersteiner, M., Baker, J. S., Herrero, M., Rufino, M. C. & Schmid, E. (2013). Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for Land Use Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 95 (2), 442—448.
Valin, H., Havlík, P., Mosnier, A., Herrero, M., Schmid E. and Obersteiner M. Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security? Environmental Research Letters, under review.
Havlík et al. GLOBIOM: Methodology and implementationAgrimonde-Terra, CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013