Globalizing localization of data-limited approaches for sustainable resource management NWFSC, Seattle Jason M. Cope Collaborators: Jim Berkson, Jim Thorson, Chantel Wetzel, SNAP working group on Data-limited Fisheries Management 2015 Lowell Wakefield Symposium: Tools and Strategies for Assessment and Management of Data-Limited Fish Stocks
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Globalizing localization of data-limited approaches for sustainable resource
management NWFSC,
Seattle
Jason M. Cope
Collaborators: Jim Berkson, Jim Thorson, Chantel Wetzel,
SNAP working group on Data-limited Fisheries Management
2015 Lowell Wakefield Symposium:
Tools and Strategies for Assessment
and Management of Data-Limited
Fish Stocks
Common terms
Globalization: Large scale collaboration to
develop data-limited methods
Localization: Adaptation to and respect for
local conditions/needs
“Sustainable use” the objective?
See Natalie Dowling’s talk Friday morning!
See Kendra Karr’s talk after that!
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2
Common terms
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3
“Data”-limited methods
Data availability Resources
• Quantity
• Quality
• Coverage
• Temporal
• Spatial
• Time
• Funding
• Analysts
• # stocks
• Management
needs
Common terms
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4
“Data”-limited methods
Data availability Resources
• Quantity
• Quality
• Coverage
• Temporal
• Spatial
• Time
• Funding
• Analysts
• # stocks
• Management
needs
Uncertainty
Common terms
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5
“Data”-limited methods
Data availability Resources
• Quantity
• Quality
• Coverage
• Temporal
• Spatial
• Time
• Funding
• Analysts
• # stocks
• Management
needs
Uncertainty
Varies locally
Common terms
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6
“Data”-limited methods
Data availability Resources
• Quantity
• Quality
• Coverage
• Temporal
• Spatial
• Time
• Funding
• Analysts
• # stocks
• Management
needs
Varies locally
Uncertainty
Localization Globalization
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7
Globalization: Method development
• Creativity/Research
• Performance
• Improvement
Thorson et al. 2012
Scale Status Productivity
Removals Abundance
indices* Size & Age
compositions
M h A&G Mat. L-W Sel
Globalization: Basic Research
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9
Globalization: Method development
• Life-history based
• Vulnerability/Risk
• Catch-only
• Length-based
• Model based
• MPA-based
• Performance relative to
operating model
• Based on performance
metrics; can be global
or local
• Yield, risk of overfishing,
stock status
• Findings:
• No one method “wins”.
• Data matters!
• Performance sensitive to
stock status, life history,
key assumptions.
Long-t
erm
yie
ld
Avg. B
iom
ass
/ B
MSY
DCAC DB-SRA S.A. Avg. C
Probability of overfishing Carruthers et al. 2014, Fish. Res.
Globalization: Simulation testing
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10
Globalization: BASI testing
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11
• Performance relative to
benchmark assessment (“best
available science”)
• Also uses performance
metrics.
• Used when aspects cannot be
simulated (e.g. expert
opinion) or want direct comps.
to current approaches
• Promotes common framework
development & testing.
• Can learn about both data-
limited & “rich” approaches.
Cope et al. 2015
Globalization: Using a common framework
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12
NA SS
XSSS SRA
NA CC-SRA
SSS Borel’s Paradox Index?
Y
N
Stock status prior? B
io.
com
ps?
Y
N
Y
N
Y N
SSS: Simple Stock Synthesis
CC-SRA: Catch curve stock reduction analysis
XSSS: Extended Stock Synthesis
SRA: Stock reduction analysis
SS: Stock Synthesis (normal application)
Globalization: Improving inputs
Cope et al. 2015
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13
M
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Hamel 2015
FMSY/M
Zhou et al. 2012 Thorson et al. 2012
SBMSY/SB0
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14
Localization: Expert elicitation
Anna Chrysafi, U. Helsinki
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15
Localization: Expert elicitation
Anna Chrysafi, U. Helsinki
• Accessible
• Easy submission
• Expert calibration
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16
Localization: Expert elicitation
Anna Chrysafi, U. Helsinki
• Natural mortality
• Growth
• Selectivity
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17
Localization: Accessibility & Specificity
• Method availability
• R resources
• GitHub
• Local application
• Management (e.g., harvest) control rules
• Broad application
• Multiple models
• Application to “data-rich” assessments
• Feedback to globalization
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 18
Localization: Accessibility
• Cross platform open source statistical software
• User-friendly graphical interface
• Sharing code via packages
• Code supports replication, standardization
• Don’t have to have constant internet connection
R
http://r-pkgs.had.co.nz/
http://cran.r-project.org/
http://www.rstudio.com/
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19