Globalization of Food and Agriculture and the Poor: Driving forces, Consequences and Policy Implications Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute A Millennium Lecture at the Hindu Media Resource Center of MS Swaminathan Research Foundation, Chennai, India, August 22, 2007
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Globalization of Food and Agriculture and the Poor: Driving Forces, Consequences and Policy Implications
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Globalization of Food and Agriculture
and the Poor: Driving forces,
Consequences and Policy Implications
Joachim von Braun
International Food Policy Research Institute
A Millennium Lecture at the
Hindu Media Resource Center of
MS Swaminathan Research Foundation,
Chennai, India, August 22, 2007
Overview
1. Issues and conceptual framework
2. Drivers of agriculture and food
related globalization and impacts
on the poor
3. Policy and research implications
Context of global change around
food and agriculture
1. Global economy‟s fast growth
2. Energy price and climate change
3. Health risks and agriculture
4. breakthroughs in science and
technology
5. Urban/rural change & migration
6. Governance and decentralization
a mix of opportunities and risks for the
poor in “globalization”
The problem with the globalization debates
Divisiveness between the two globalization views:
1] economic-lens approach, narrowly focused
2] unfocused systems approach, neglecting opportunities
and both have particularly distorted and dogmatic perspectives around
agriculture – food – poverty linkages
What is “globalization” of
agriculture and food?
A technical definition: Global integration—across national
borders—of production, processing, marketing, retailing, and consumption
of agriculture and food items
And what are the links to poverty?
Need for a conceptual framework that
connects globalization drivers to well
being at different levels…
• Global
• National and state
• Community and household
…to facilitate action
Conceptual framework: drivers and examples
of actions at different levels
Source: von Braun, 2007
MARKETS INVESTMENT &
CAPITAL FLOWS
INFORMATION &
INNOVATION
SOCIAL POLICY
LEV
EL
I
GLO
BA
LIZA
TIO
N
Exo
geno
us fa
ctor
s
Increased access to outputs, inputs, labor
Expansion of FDI
Improved ICTs
Innovation & IPR
Aid; human right to
food
LEV
EL
II
DO
ME
STI
C
PO
LIC
Y
Market opening
Competition policy
Political &
institutional changes
Technology policy
Public R&D investments
Pro-poor social
actions
LEV
EL
III
HO
US
EH
OLD
S
RIGHTS
PRICES
EMPLOYMENT HOUSEHOLD
ENDOWMENTS
PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION
The slow changes in poverty
• Slow reduction in income poverty
• Increased vulnerabilities
• Stagnation in nutrition improvements
• Growing in-equities
despite of of massive expansions of
opportunities under globalization
Mixed Evidence: Poverty headcount ratio at
$1 and $2 a day (PPP) as % of total population
Share of people living on less than $1 a day
(% of population)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
East Asia & Pacif ic Europe & Central Asia
Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa
South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
Share of people living on less than $2 a day
(% of population)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia
Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa
South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: Based on data from the 2006 WDI database
Note: 2002 data are preliminary
Poor and ultra poor in Asia 2004
and percent in South Asia
1$ - .75$/day: 372 million (71%)
.75$ - .50$/day: 213 million (77%)
Below .50$/day: 29 million (70%)
Source: Akhter Ahmend et.al. IFPRI, 2007
Towards urbanization of poverty?
199318.88
81.13
2002
24.67
75.33
urban share of the poor (%)
rural share of the poor (%)
Source: Ravallion et al., 2007
Note: Poverty line is set at $1.08/day
Urban and rural share of the poor (%)
Regional Hunger Trends
Source: Wiesmann, 2006
11.412.6
40.3
27.9
22.5
9.48.4
15.1
32
27.3
7.98.0
11.9
26.627
6.07.5
10.9
25.125.4
6.6 5.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Sub-Saharan
A frica
So uth A sia So utheast
A sia
N ear East &
N o rth A frica
Lat in A merica
& C aribbean
Eastern
Euro pe &
F o rmer So viet
Unio n
GH I 1981
GH I 1992
GH I 1997
GH I 2003
Overview
1. Issues and conceptual framework
2. Drivers of agriculture and food
related globalization and impacts
on the poor
3. Policy and research implications
1) Markets and trade
1. Trade: Stagnation of developing countries‟ export shares,
more global integration on the import side
Agriculture trade in percent of production
Data source: World Bank, WDI 2005
Export/Production 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000-02
Latin America and the Caribbean 23.6 24.7 24.5 26.7 31.4
Sub-Saharan Africa a 28.5 23 17.2 15.3 13.2
Asia Developing 5.4 5.7 6.4 6.4 6.4
All Three Regions 12.1 11.8 11.3 11.0 11.6
Import/Production 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000–02
Latin America and the Caribbean 6.7 8.6 11.2 14 15.7
Sub-Saharan Africa a 8.1 9.4 12.6 12.3 13.5
Asia Developing 7.1 7.7 9.2 8.9 8.8
All Three Regions 7.1 8.0 10.0 10.1 10.5
a Does not include South Africa.
Regional trade trendsAgriculture trade in percent of total merchandise trade