Globalfeed markets - March | April 2011

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Grain & Feed Milling Technology is published six times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom.All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies,

the publishers accept no liability for any errors or omissions or for the consequences of action taken on the basis of information published.©Copyright 2010 Perendale Publishers L td. All rights reserved. No par t of this publication may be reproduced in any formor by any means without prior permission of the copyright owner. Printed by Perendale Publishers Ltd. ISSN: 1466-3872

Digital Re-print - March | April 2011Globalfeed markets - March | April 2011

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GlOBl GIN & FEED MKETS

Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviewsworld trading conditions which are impacting the fu ll range of 

commodities used in food and feed production. His observationswill influence your decision-making.

US maize prices

rose to their highest

level since June

2008 in early

March as traders

continued to factor

in forecasts of the

lowest US seasonal

ending stocks in

15-years. The US

stock is the main

factor in declining

world inventories as

this season’s global

consumption of the

grain runs about

22.5m tonnes over

production.

NERVOUS grain and oilseed markets

rose above last year’s summer highs

to near three-year peaks toward the

end of first quarter 2010 – though

wheat and soya prices are backtracking steeply

as we go to press.

Wheat and maize initially took turns to lead

renewed market strength as traders continuedto fret over the adequacy of projected 2011

crops while a resurgent energy sector suggested

competition for grains would remain strong

between food, feed and fuel users. ‘Panic’ buy ing

of various foodstuffs, especially staples like wheat,

sugar and rice, by Arab governments facing political

upheavals gave markets a strong ‘demand-led’ feel

at times. However, the turmoil across the Middle

East and North Africa appeared to be a double-

edged sword for speculative buyers in grain futures

markets, encouraging them with steep gains in

crude oil and gold prices but also raising fears that

rising energy costs would send the global economic

recovery into reverse with all the implications for 

slower commodity demand.

On the supply side, big question marks

continue to overhang US

and Russian winter wheat

prospects following their poor start amid autumn

droughts and, in parts of 

the US Plains, persistent

dryness problems. Australia

continues to count the

cost of the devastating

Queensland floods although

its continuing role in world

food wheat export trade

and its overseas milling

customers’ ability to work 

round some of its quality 

problems with creative

blending, suggest the bullish impact of this factor 

may have been somewhat over-played. Ongoing

competition on world export markets from

Canada and Europe too, despite smaller and lower 

quality 2010 crops respectively - plus a larger than

expected Argentine crop - have also stopped the

bulls running away with the wheat market entirely.

Yet the year ahead is full of uncertainties. Whilethe latest International Grains Council report is

chalking in a possible 24.5m tonne recovery in

wheat output, a Canadian Wheat Board official

recently suggested the gain might be closer to 6m

tonnes (albeit within a broad 635/675m range

that would allow for 12.5m less as well as 24.5m

more grain than last year, depending on weather 

and other factors).

The CWB also expects a minimal rise in this

year’s Canadian crop although the more important

issue here is whether, within the total, Canada

can produce a more normal proportion of milling

wheat after two years of weather hindrance on

that front. Prayers for that outcome must be even

more fervent in Australia, where off icials recently 

suggested their next crop (harvested late 2011/

Trade pins hopes on 2011crop rebound

Gn&feed mnG tenooGy42 | march - pril 2011

COMMODITIES

Gn&feed mnG tenooGy march - pril 2011 | 43

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Whatever maize crop the US does achieve

in 2011, it will start wit h extremely low stocks.

Until there is evidence of these being rebuilt,

prices could stay firm in this sector, keeping

other grain and oilseed markets up. The US

will also need a timely harvest as supplies

dwindle from July into August.

Oilmeal costs have also risen in the last

month or two, propelled by extremely s trong

Chinese demand for US soyabeans, eating

too quickly into the latter’s total supply and

threatening a possible severe end-season stock squeeze. US traders have also been fretting

about fairly conservative figures being touted

for this spring;s US soyabean planted acreage – 

just enough, maybe, to meet demand if perfect

weather delivers good yields. Demanding

some price-restraint, though Latin American

soyabean crops are turning out far bigger than

expected. That should relieve pressure on the

US in the months ahead, possible leading to

some cancelled US export business. The South

Americans may also sow bigger crops again

this autumn, if prices persist at anything like

current levels. However, some improvement

in supplies of the other leading traded oilseeds

– like rapeseed and sunflowerseed - would be

useful in keeping prices under control across

the oilmeal sector.

Main commodity highlightssince our last review

Wheat up – then downA glance at our wheat charts below

shows prices for the leading indicators have

recently been at their most expensive since

the summer of 2008. As noted above, the

factors behind the latest increases include

ongoing weather uncertainties in the US and

Russia, Australia’s flooding/quality problems,

strong demand from the Middle East and a

fair dash of speculative support (fund buying)

each time the market gets a piece of bullish

news. One of the big differences between

now and 2008, as pointed out in this column

previously, is that world stocks were much

lower then – both in absolute terms and in

relation to consumption. This season’s endingstocks (in July) are in fact projected more than

50m or about 42% higher than those held

at the end of 2007/08, when wheat prices

last boomed. There is st ill a lot of grain in the

main exporting country, the USA, especially 

- even before the next crop comes along. US

planted area is expected to be up by about

6% but with drought stressing the hard red

winter crop since it was sown – and spring

wheat area possibly declining too – some

USDA economists believe production could

still drop by 3.5m tonnes to about 56.5m.

Even then, supply including carryover stocks

would still be comfortable. US wheat markets

to be tight at

the close of 

2010/11 at end-

June. However,

the squeeze

on supplies of 

higher grade

milling wheats

continues to

tighten, leading

to some very 

w ide pr i cepremiums in recent weeks. North American

hard spring wheat export prices, for example,

were recently quoted at their dearest levels

since June 2008. This is obviously focusing keen

market interest on how much hard wheat

will be sown on that Continent this spring – 

and early portents are less than encouraging.

Despite high prices, US spring wheat area may 

decline as other crops offer better returns.

Canada, meanwhile, could see interruptions

to its mainly spring sown wheat crop

as a massive snow pack melts amid

forecasts of heavier than usual rains

from latter March onward (possible

well into the growing period - though

these longer range forecasts can be

unreliable).

On the other hand, European

plantings are up – perhaps not quiteas much as earlier hoped but, with

decent summer weather and normal

yields and quality (especially in the

top quality producer Germany) things

could loosen up enough here by the

autumn in terms of volume and quality to ease

milling wheat premiums a little. The question

remains, though, what will wheat be worth on

world markets early in the new season. Will

persistent high world prices drag too much EU

wheat overseas, as has arguably happened this

season? Wheat will also have to follow maize

prices, both in terms of the contest for spring

acres and as a competing feedgrain.

Maize markets grew jittery again in the

past month despite early USDA forecasts

of a possible 4.2m acre rise in US plantings.

Some traders believe that is unlikely, given the

demand for acres from all crops – althoughmaize prices are certainly attractive to US

farmers. Then there is the question of yields.

Last year – with supposedly optimum and

trouble-free growing conditions, the US crop

raced to completion and ended up with rather 

disappointing yields whereas in 2009, a delayed

start a nd long cool development period saw

productivity soar (even with a wet harvest that

ran beyond the year’s end – though this did

affect quality in many areas). If all went well

this year, current planting forecasts suggest

the US could produce as much as 250/255 m

tonnes, according to some observers - or 20m

to 30m less if weather misbehaves, say others.

early 2012) might decline from this year’s very 

high level. With a return to normal weather,

Australia could still produce millions of tonnes

more high quality milling wheat next seas on

than this. Along with bigger expected bigger 

Indian and Ukrainian crops, not to mention

still large world carryover stocks from this

season (especially within the main supplying

country, the USA), this suggests a less bullish

wheat market later in 2011/12.

On the demand side for wheat, a possible fly 

in the ointment of potentially looser supply is

potential for stronger feed use. Consumption

by this sector is expected to rise by several

million tonnes globally this year to its highest

level since the early 1990’s as meat producers

seek alternatives to tight and expensive maize

and barley. A currently forecast 5% rise in

world wheat feeding to 123m tonnes will be

spread mainly over Australia, Canada, the

USA, China and the former Soviet Union,

offset by a drop in the EU.

While wheat has remain expensive in

recent months, the price has recently comewell off its highs – dropping at one stage by 

almost 20% from the February peaks. Maize

on the other hand, has risen sharply in value,

narrowing the price spread between the two

grains to its smallest in many years. This is

influencing importers’ grain buying decisions,

especially in Asia, where feed wheat purchases

have recently risen strongly. China has been a

notable buyer, taking advantage of the large

proportion of this year’s weather-damaged

Australian milling wheat supply downgraded

to feed.

Even with this extra global demand for 

wheat in feeds, supplies are not expected

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time to salvage a reasonable US crop?

• US planting competition – will other crops

take hard spring wheat acres?

• European and Canadian crops – will summer 

weather live up to that descrip tion this year,

enabling more high-protein, higher quality 

milling wheat production?

• ‘Black Sea’ crops – what sort of crop/export

comeback will Russia, other CIS suppliers

make?

• Will US maize output increase much – taking

pressure off wheat as a feed source?

Coarse grains – limited maizerelief next year?

US maize prices rose to their highest level

since June 2008 in early March as traders

continued to factor in forecasts of the lowest

US seasonal ending stocks in 15-years. The

US stock is t he main factor in declining world

inventories as this season’s global consumption

of the grain runs about 22.5m tonnes over 

production.

What the US sows and grows this year will

be the main factor in any recovery in world

supplies. The most recent outlook from the

USDA suggests its own farmers will put in

92m acres – 3.8m more than last year though

some traders think this a bit optimistic,others believe it is ‘do-able’ given the current

extremely high price of corn and some spare

fallow acres coming into the total farmland

pot. Depending on whether yields are above,

below or average, the next US crop could

be anywhere from 310 to 350m tonnes. The

top end would add a few million tonnes to

stocks, taking some of the upward pressure

off prices. Ear ly long-range weather forecasts

have raised the odds somewhat on a wetter 

spring, possibly running into early summer. This

cuts both ways. On the one hand, it could trim

corn planting plans, turning acres over to soya,

which can be planted later. On the other hand,

it sets the crop up with plenty of moisture

and, given a long cool growing season, this can

actually benefit productivity – as we saw in

2009, when these a wet start put the market

on red alert, only to see the crop finish withrecord yields and output.

Elsewhere in the maize supplying world,

supplies have been kept up by good

harvests for the second year running in Latin

America and Ukraine. Exports have also

been supplemented by a much larger India

crop. Along with the surplus of feedwheat

this season – and a decline in global import

demand for maize – these contributions are

helping to keep maize prices under control

while awaiting the next US crop.

As we go to press, the maize market, like

wheat, has backtracked from its February 

highs by about 8.5% - if still a staggering 85%

world wheat pricing. Currently it is sit ting on

massive stocks and it expects another huge,

possibly record crop this year. Exports – of 

several million tonnes – would make sense

to protect domestic growers’ incomes and

keep them enthused but, like neighbouring

Pakistan (also in surplus) and many other 

developing countries, India is anxious about

food price inflation – both home-produced,

through economic growth, and imported

from the volatile world market for food

commodities. But while exportsfrom the Indian subcontinent

could remain restricted, they 

remain a possibility – especially 

if world prices start to retreat

more seriously, and this golden

opportunity to earn good export

revenue seems to slip away.

The International Grains

Council recently forecast world

wheat sowings would increase

this year by 3.4% - up nearly 8%

in the CIS, countries, just 1.2% in Europe and

South America, 9.6% in Canada and 4.4% in

Australia. On trend yields it extrapolates a

possible crop of 672m tonnes versus last year’s

647.5m. Even if consumption stayed around

this season’s unusually high level, that would

still add to stocks.

A recent forecast from a Canadian WheatBoard Official was more guarded, however,

putting production in a possible range

of 635/672m tonnes with a likely f igure

of just 653.5m. With consumption

seen in a range of 655/675m but a

median figure of 660m, this veers on

the side of further stock drawdown, if 

not ruling out a looser scenario.

Clearly, until more hard information

comes to hand about condition of 

2011 crops and weather over the

next six months, wheat prices could

well stay volatile. With the spread

against maize now so narrow, they will

also have to follow the latter market closely,

regardless of improving wheat supply.

The descent in world prices has had a

marked impact on EU wheat costs. This has

been well reflected in the Paris milling wheatfutures market where nearby delivery has

fallen to just �234/tonne after hitting a low

of �227.75. In February, the price was 15%

higher at �281 and some dealers spoke of it

challenging the record 2008 high of �295, even

�300/tonne. LIFFE feed wheat futures have

seen a smaller drop, easing about 12% f rom

£210 to under £185/tonne.

KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHSAHEAD

• US weather – will Plains drought break in

continue to price in a ‘risk pre mium’ until more

is known about coming US and world crops.

In February the markets experienced a flurry 

of buying amid talk of a major drought loss

to crops in China – the world’s largest wheat

producer and consumer but that appears to

have blown over after recent rain and snow

shrunk the drought area markedly. However,

Australia does not seem to have done as

badly as feared after the Queensland floods

and remains a fairly keen competitor for 

international milling wheat import tenders.

Canada has also figured from time to time

in milling wheat deals despite its lower 

quality 2010 crop which buyers like Japan are

reportedly managing to accommodate by 

relaxing blending specifications somewhat.

Russia, of course, is still out of the world wheat

market and its officials recently backtracked onhints that their export ban might end in July 

when the next crop comes in. This may be an

indicator that things aren’t going so well there

crop-condition-wise – or it may simply point

to the authorities trying to keep prices under 

control on a tight and still frisky domesticbreadwheat market. It would not be a big

surprise if this year’s crop does manage some

sort of rebound, enough to resume exports

later this summer, albeit on a smaller scale than

normal. Ukraine and Kazakhstan meanwhile

remain sellers on a small scale and if their cr ops

go well, they could s tep up expor ts in 2011/12.

Yet while some sort of reprise might be sen

for the ‘Black Sea’ exporters as a whole, it

seems unlikely that these will perform their 

role of recent past years in pulling the world

price of lower/middling grade breadwheats

down levels that buyers had become

accustomed to. India is another wild card in

Gn&feed mnG tenooGy46 | march - pril 2011

COMMODITIES

Gn&feed mnG tenooGy march - pril 2011 | 47

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is still growing rapidly and expected to

continue on its upward trajectory. The

USDA expects it to raise demand for soya

meal alone by over 7m tonnes – almost 20%

- in the current season ending September 

30. World total demand for soyameal is

seen growing by about 9% or 15m tonnes,

requiring crush of about 19m tonnes more

soyabeans. The message is clear: the main

suppliers in North and South American must

keep expanding their crops – this year, next

year and into the future.First indications for US sowings this spring

suggest only a minimal increase in sown area

and a crop not much bigger than last year’s

90.6m – which has proved barely adequate

to meet demand – as farmers decide to

cash in on high maize prices instead. The

US has had good yields for the past two

years. Will it get the right weather again?

Further forward, the Latin Americans have

the land resources to raise their planted

areas for their 2012 crops when sowing

begins in October. However, they will need

a continuing stimulus from soyabean and

product export prices.

Looking at the other major oilseed

crops, 2010/11 was an unimpressive year 

for expansion of rapeseed and sunflowers.

Although production of oilmeals in total

rose by about 15.7m tonnes, 85% of thatwas down to soya. So, while the influx of 

new crop Latin American soya may ease

prices for a while this spring and early 

summer, uncertainty over longer term

supplies may see costs level out later in

the year.

KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHSAHEAD

• The final size of expected record Latin

American soya harvests

• US soyabean sowings and crop weather 

• China’s ongoing livestock expansion & its

demand for more soya

• European & CIS countries’ rapeseed crop

progress & sunflower sowings

• Canadian rapeseed plantings/weather 

• Ca n China continue self-sufficient in maize

or will it need to import from the west?

Oilmeals – supply boost fromBumper Latam soya crops

Feed users facing higher costs for their 

soya meal for the past year may see prices

ease in the months as Latin American

soyabean crops turn out much larger than

expected a few months ago. The biggest shifthas been in Argentina’s fortunes with the

lifting of a major drought threat. Production

there could now be around 50/ 52m tonnes – 

possibly even more – compared with about

48m expected at the turn of the year when

some pessimists thought the crop could fall

as low as 43m tonnes from last year’s record

54.5m. Brazil has done even better and is

now expected tom produce around 70/72m

versus

l a s t year ’ s

6 9 m , a l s o

an al l -t ime

record. Both

countries are

expected to

crush more

soyabeans

(Argentinac a n d r a w

o n l a r g e r  

than normal

stocks too), resulting in more about 6-7m

tonnes more (about 20%) meal for export

customers. Brazil is also expected to ship

more whole soyabeans to foreign crushers.

The improvement in South American

producers’ fortunes has weighed against a

tightening US soyabean market as China

continues to suck away record quantities

from the main supplier. China and other 

buyers have already begun to switch to

cheaper new crop Latin American supplies

just starting to arrive on the market.

Prices of soya meal in the US have already 

dropped by 11% from their 2½–year peaks

set in early February if still about 25% dearer 

than at this time last year while Europeanprices have also started to

descend.

The decline might have

been greater if not for some

moderately bullish factors

persisting in this market.

One is the ongoing strength

of Chinese demand for 

oilmeal proteins. Although

i t s imports of whole

soyabeans have recently 

slackened off somewhat,

this trend is probably 

temporary as feed demand

dearer than at this time last year. The main

factor has been growing unease over the

impact of high energy costs on the global

economy, slowing demand for higher 

value foods, including meat, with a knock 

on effect on consumption of feedstuffs.

However, a more potent factor may be

the negative sentiment this creates in the

investment community, where speculative

funds and institutional investors including

pension funds, may have put rather too

much faith in a one-way commodity boom.A rocketing crude oil price may well kick-

start slowing expansion in demand for 

alternative/bio-fuels (corn and sugar 

ethanol, soya and rapeseed bio-diesel etc),

implying a highly bullish effect for these

commodities. However, a stalling world

economic recovery could negate much of 

the impact. Most of the growth in feed

demand, especially maize and soya, is in

China and other developing countries. Even

China seems to be feeling the pinch this

month, cutting soya imports and recording

an unusual trade deficit. Along with the

political instability in the Arab world, this

is making investors far more cautions. If it

is true, as some analysts cl aim, that the top

20/30% (maybe more) of the commodity 

price boom is down to speculators, the

withdrawal of this support could be

expected to help prices relax further.

KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHSAHEAD

• US weather – a dry spring is now needed

to allow timely sowing and fulfillment of 

acreage targets

• How much will CIS countries and Europe

sow?

• Will expanding US ethanol exports eat

deeper into supplies at the expense of food,

feed and other more traditional users?

• Will the Arab world settle down, easing

upward pressure on energy markets and

negative global economic impacts on world

meat and feedgrain demand?

• Less feed wheat next season could mean

less competition for maize

Gn&feed mnG tenooGy48 | march - pril 2011 Gn&feed mnG tenooGy march - pril 2011 | 49

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