GLOBALWARMINGANDCLIMATECHANGE:CHALLENGEFORSURVIVAL A Lecture of DENR during the RCDC Meeting (2011) Dagupan City
GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE: CHALLENGE FOR SURVIVAL
A Lecture of DENR during the RCDC Meeting (2011)
Dagupan City
Our precious planet
Saving the environment could be this century’s biggest challenge
Source: Time Magazine, 1997PAGASA/DOST
What is global warming?
Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s meantemperature as a result of enhanced greenhouse effect.
collective picture of a warming world
Strong temperature
increase since 1975
(unprecedented)
global average air
temperature increased
by 0.74°C from 1906
to 2005
What are the manifestations/signals of global warming in the local scale?
• In the Philippines, there are already trends ofincreasing number of hot days and warm nights, butdecreasing number of cold days and cool nights. Bothmaximum and minimum temperatures are generallygetting warmer.
• Other extreme weather/climate events like intense rainshave been seen to be more frequent.
What are the manifestations/signals of global warming in
the local scale?
A substantial amount of coral reefs in the country have been found to have been affected by bleaching during events of warmer sea surface temperatures.
Bleaching of the coral reefs is associated with the loss of symbiotic algae and/or their pigments, and the death of the corals if the warming of the sea surface temperatures are prolonged.
• Even the rainforests of the seas –the coral reefs, are taking the brunt of the warming atmosphere
• Some 30% of coral reefs are already irreparably damaged (mainly due to rising sea surface temperatures)
Did you know that . . .
Global warming could lead to freakish weatherpatterns such as unexpected drought, typhoons, andsudden snowstorms.
Early springs, melting ice and rising sea levels have allbeen blamed on climate change.
What is happening???
• IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Findings
– Global average surface temperature increased by 0.74°C (1960-2005)which is higher than the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of 0.6°C(1901-2000)
– Global average sea level rose due to increase in the global averagesurface temperature at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961to 2003 or a total of 0.17m for the 21st century
– The increasing concentration of Green House Gases in theatmosphere caused by human activities will further trigger acontinuing increase of global temperature or global warming.
RAPID INCREASE IN EMISSION OF GREENHOUSE
GASSES LARGELY CONTRIBUTED TO GLOBAL WARMING
• Carbon Dioxide has increased by 30%• Methane has increased by 145%• Nitrous Oxide has increased by 15%
INCREASE in 200
Years
20th Century Global Warming
1990’s = Warmest Decade
1998 = Warmest Year Since 1861
What is climate change?
Climate change is a “change in climatewhich is attributed directly to human activitythat alters the composition of the globalatmosphere and which is in addition to naturalclimate variability observed over comparabletime periods.”
- (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC])
To be able to understand
climate change is to
understand first the concept
of the
‘greenhouse effect’.
So what are the greenhouse gases?
• Carbon dioxide• Methane• Nitrous Oxide• Ozone• Water Vapor
These are naturally found in the atmosphere and they
trap heat close to the Earth’s surface. But by burning
of fossil fuels to sustain our modern lifestyle, we
increase their levels very fast.
Importance of the Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)
These are the naturally occurring gases thatkeep the Earth comfortably warm enough forplants and animals to live in at an averagetemperature of 15oC.
Produced by natural processes:
a. water cycle
b. growth and death of plants and animals
c. decaying of wood and other biodegradablematerials
d. volcanic activities
CARBON DIOXIDE METHANE
NITROUS OXIDE
- Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen
in Soils and Ocean
Human activitiescan also cause climate change.
Scientists now agree that most of the global warming today have been caused
by human activities.
Human activities that lead to the increase inconcentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) include:
Worldwide deforestation
Increasing industrialactivity
Motor vehicle emission
Waste managementpractices
Intensive agriculture
Methane - Decomposition of Garbage and Agricultural Waste
Materials, Leaks in Coal Mining and Natural Gas Production
Accounts for 20% of additional greenhouse effects
KLIMA
Waste as a source of GHG emissions
• Decaying solid waste in landfills emits methane
KLIMA
Waste as a source of GHG emissions
Decomposing waste in water can also
emit methane
Nitrous Oxide:• Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen in Soils and Oceans
• Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer and Pesticides in Agriculture
• Biomass Burning
• Combustion Process Vehicles
• Acid Production
CARBON DIOXIDE - Burning of Fossil Fuels
(Oil, Coal) by Powerplants, Industries and
Vehicles
How do greenhouse gases influence climate change?
The higher theconcentration ofgreenhouse gases in theatmosphere particularlycarbon dioxide, thestronger the greenhouseeffect.
Increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs)as a result of
human activities[Enhanced greenhouse effect]
Increase in global surface temperature
Climate ChangeSea Level Rise
Extreme changes in weather patterns
Source: National Geographic Magazine (2004) PAGASA/DOST
).
CO2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples andProjections for Next 100 Years
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Years Before Present(B.P. -- 1950)
CO
2 C
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
(p
pm
v)
Vostok Record
IPCC IS92a Scenario
Law Dome Record
Mauna Loa Record
Current(2001)
Projected(2100)
0100,000200,000300,000400,000
CO
2C
on
cen
trati
on
(p
pm
v)
(BP 1950)
Projected (2100)
Current (2001)
Scientific evidences:
For 420,000 years the CO2 concentration in the
atmosphere has remained within tight bounds
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2001
KLIMA
150 100 50 0
Thousands of Years ago
Tem
pera
ture
ch
an
ge (
oC
)
Carb
on
dio
xid
e (
pp
mv)
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration and Temperature
Change
Source: National Geographic Magazine (2004)
PAGASA/DOST
RISE IN TEMPERATURE
• Accelerate melting of glacier
• Increase in sea level
• Shrinking of sea ice
• Increased coastal
flooding
• Enhanced coastal
erosion
• Salt-water
intrusion
Possible Impacts
• Impacts of storm
surge magnified
Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise
3D modeling and visualization tools are used for vulnerability
assessment, exact location and quantification of areas which are
susceptible to floods due to rise in sea level.
Study area: Northern part of Navotas, Metro Manila
• ACCELERATE MELTING OF GLACIERS
Increase of Sea Level
Inundation/ Flooding of Low
Lying Areas and Small
Islands
Source: National Geographic Magazine (2004)PAGASA/DOST
Mt.Kilimanjaro, Tanzania
1993 2000
IUCN
Thinning of Arctic sea-ice, retreat of non-polar glacier &
snow cover
20 th century changes in climate and biophysical system
(already observed)
Source: National Geographic Magazine (2004)
PAGASA/DOST
Reduce ability of Ecosystem to Absorb
Greenhouse Gasses
Typhoon Ondoy with international name of Ketsana:
• Entered the Philippines September 26, 2009
• Dumped 344 mm. or 13.4 inches of rainfall in just six hours equivalent to a months worth of rainfall in the country
• 377 dead• 308 injured• 37 missing
Children, women and the elderly are the
most vulnerable during times of natural
calamities
Typhoon Pepeng (International Name:Parma) Last October 9, 2009with maximum sustained winds of 130 kph and gustiness of 160 kph wrecked havoc in Pangasinan, Tarlac, Benguet Province, IlocosRegion, Baguio, Mountain Province and Cordillera Region.
• Official death toll: 198 people and 46 missing
• Typhoon Pepeng dumped one of the heaviest rains recorded, heavier than the rain water dumped by Typhoon Ondoy
• Caused landslides, destroyed infrastructures and wide spread flooding throughout Northern Luzon.
Floodwaters caused by rains brought by Typhoon Parma submerge houses in Carmen, Pangasinan,
northern Philippines in this photo released by the Philippine Coast Guard October 9, 2009. A week of
relentless rains in the northern Philippines have put dozens of towns and villages under water, with more
than 100 people drowned or killed by landslides, officials said on Friday.
Residents are stranded on a roof as floodwaters caused by rains brought by Typhoon Parma submerge
houses in Carmen, Pangasinan, northern Philippines in this photo released by the Philippine Coast Guard
October 9, 2009. A week of relentless rains in the northern Philippines have put dozens of towns and villages
under water, with more than 100 people drowned or killed by landslides, officials said on Friday.
People mill around a shopping mall to retrieve washed away goods after it was flooded in the town of
Rosales, Pangasinan province north of Manila on October 9, 2009. The death toll from two weeks of
unprecedented storms across the northern Philippines soared past 540 on October after landslides
consumed homes and neck-deep floods inundated towns.
Rescuers search for possible survivors after a landslide caused by rains brought by Typhoon Parma in Baguio City, north of
Manila October 9, 2009. A week of relentless rains in the northern Philippines have put dozens of towns and villages under
water, with more than 100 people drowned or killed by landslides, officials said on Friday.
Iron sheet roofing lie on the ground after being damaged by strong winds during Typhoon Parma in Cagayan Valley, northern
Philippines in this October 3, 2009 video grab. Typhoon Parma slammed into the northeastern tip of the Philippines on Saturday,
tearing roofs off houses and uprooting trees, but there were no immediate reports of casualties
Inundated vehicles by floodwaters brought on by typhoon Parma are seen on a
highway in Rosales Pangasinan north of Manila October 9, 2009. A week of
relentless rains in the northern Philippines have put dozens of towns and villages
under water, with more than 100 people drowned or killed by landslides, officials
said on Friday.
Occurrences of droughts have
become more widespread
throughout the entire world due to
global warming
• As the earth’s surface
temperature increases due to
global warming, moisture
evaporation have become more
intense causing the soil to
become much much drier
leading eventually to drought.
The Philippines has not
been spared of the
weather-related
disturbances and
disasters. The past
typhoons have been
unusually heavy and
have brought devastation
to our country and our
people.
Landslides in Benguet Province during the onslaught of typhoon pepenr. Rescuers dig up the
10 persons who were reportedly buried alive after their houses collapsed at the height of
typhoon ‘Pepeng’ on Friday. But the retrieval operation was stopped due to the extent of
damage in the area. (Photo by RIZALDY COMANDA)
Landslide caused by Typhoon Lupit in Cordillera
Autonomous Region on October 21, 2009
CALAMITIES AND DISASTERS:
- VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE > DEVASTATIONS AND HIGH LOSS OF
LIVES AND PROPERTIES
HEALTH RISKS:• VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE > HEATWAVES &EXTREME COLD
FRONTS
• HIGH RISK FOR THE OLD, THE SICK, CHILDREN AND THE POOR
• ECOSYSTEMS ARE DESTROYED
Climate-related health risks
• Direct impacts through cold or heat stress
• Indirect impacts through communicable
and non-communicable diseases
(particularly coronary and respiratory)
Climate-related health risks
– WHO identified 14 climate-sensitive
communicable diseases (malaria,
cholera, dengue, etc.)
Climate-related health risks
– Link between atmospheric air quality,
airborne particulate matter, aggravated
cardiac and respiratory diseases
(bronchitis, asthma and emphysema)
and various forms of heart disease.
(Connor, 2007)
VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE
• DISRUPT CYCLE OF
PLANTING AND HARVESTING
• DISRUPTS FEEDING HABITS,
MIGRATION AND
REPRODUCTIVE PATTERN OF
ANIMALS
• DEVASTATIONS FROM EL
NINO AND LA NINA
LOW PRODUCTIVITY AND
FOOD SHORTAGE
LOSS OF INCOME OF
POOR FARMERS AND
FISHERMEN
VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE > EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
CALAMITIES AND DISASTERS
• Typhoons and Floods
The Philippines is located in the typhoon belt. An average of 20 typhoons visit the country every year and incidents of flooding are higher in the country than anywhere else.
Source: PAGASA
LANDSLIDES MUD FLOWS
32,400 Kilometers, Longest Coastline
Impacts: Water resources
• Decreased/increased water availability
(soil erosion)
• Increased drought risk (including land
degradation)
• Poor quality of water (algal blooms, etc.)
Impacts: Water resources
• Increased water demand
• Domestic water supply problems
• Impact on power generation
Impacts: Agriculture (forestry)
• Damage to crops/crop failure
• Reduced yields in warmer environment
• Food security threatened / Malnutrition
Impacts: Agriculture (forestry)
• Increased outbreaks of pests and
diseases
• Increased risk of forest fires
• Increased shift of species
Impacts: Human societyand national economy
• Disruption of settlements and attendant
needs of humans
• Potential for increased migration
• Pressures on urban infrastructures
• Reduced GDP
– Birds species in the United Kingdom arelaying eggs nine days earlier, while othershave fled north or to higher altitudes (coolerclimes)
Hundreds of animals and plants are responding to climate change by jumping their biological clocks
Climate change Impact to animal species
Shrinking sea ice– May induce decline of Krill
population and could result in less food supply to seabirds, whales, seals
PAGASA/DOST
Climate change Impact to animal species
• Warming trend nighttime temperature and cloud cover
• 2/3 of 110 known species of harlequins (frogs) have vanished
• Subtle change ideal for chytrid disease that kills the frogs(fungus flourish in wet season turning lethal at 17°C to 25°C
• Disease was the bullet that killed frogs but CLIMATE was the trigger
Source: The Bulletin with Newsweek, Oct. 2006
Climate change Impact to animal species
Trouble beyond tropics
• Certain species migrating further north of their habitat
– ex: Edith’s checkerspot
• CONCERN OVERCLIMATE CHANGE MANIFESTEDTHE PAST
30 YEARS
• 1ST WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE IN 1979:
• EXPLORED RELATION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
HUMAN ACTIVITIES
• GOVERNMENTS CAUTIONED AGAINST ACTIVITIES
AFFECTING CLIMATE CHANGE
• INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) ESTABLISHED BY UNITED NATIONS IN 1988:
• PROVIDE SCIENTIFIC PROOF OF CLIMATE CHANGE
• ASSESS ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
• FORMULATE RESPONSE STRATEGIES
1990 – IPCC SCIENTIFCALLY CONFIRMED EXISTENCE OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
• UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
(UNFCCC) SIGNED BY 154 HEADS OF STATES/REPRESENTATIVES IN RIO DE
JANEIRO IN 1992:
• ENTERED INTO FORCE IN MARCH 1994
• AGREEMENT TO STABILIZE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
• DEVELOPED COUNTRIES COMMITTED TO REDUCE THEIR GREENHOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS TO 1990 LEVEL BY YEAR 2000.
• MANDATED ALL MEMBERS TO HAVE INVENTORY OF GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS AND DEVELOP STRATEGIES/PROGRAMS TO ADAPT TO AND
MITIGATE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
KYOTO PROTOCOL ADOPTED BY
10,000 DELEGATES IN KYOTO, JAPAN
-- ENTERED INTO FORCE In FEBRUARY 2004
PRESENTLY, 169 COUNTRIES HAVE RATIFIED THE
PROTOCOL
-- PROVIDE FOR CLEARER AND BIGGER TARGET OF
5% REDUCTION IN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES BY 2012
-- NO REDUCTION REQUIREMENT FOR DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES
• Provided flexibility to developed countries
in meeting their emission reductions.
• Established the Clean Development
Mechanism or CDM,
• Allows Developed Countries to Offset their
Greenhouse Gas Emission by buying
Equivalent amount from projects intended
to absorb Greenhouse Gasses
• Majority of Projects are in Developing
Countries
Carbon trading benefits the
developed countries by helping them
comply with the emission reductions
without affecting their domestic
production levels and, at the same
time, benefit the developing
countries in terms of investments in
CDM projects, promote the use of
cleaner technologies in energy and
industry and provide jobs and
income to communities undertaking
the projects.
513 PROJECTS REGISTERED WITH CDM EXECUTIVE BOARD TO
GENERATE 740 MILLION TONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EQUIVALENT
THE COPENHAGEN ACCORD
This is an appeal made by France andEthiopia, representing Africa to the UnitedNations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCC) to adopt an ambitiousagreement on December 18, 2009 limitingthe increase of temperature to 2 degreescelsius above pre-industrial levels asrecommended by the International Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) and ensuing thatvulnerable countries will receive adequatefinancing to face the challenge.
The agreement will be applicable immediatelyand will be translated into legal internationalagreement by 2010.
President Sarkozy and Mr Zenawi, Prime Minister of Ethiopia
France and Ethiopia, representing Africa call for:
1. The halving of global emission by 2050 compared to the 1990 level.
a. Developed countries reduce their carbon dioxide emission by 80% by 2050 and adopt coherent and comparable mid-term objectives.
b. Advanced developing countries adopt ambitious low carbon growth plans and actions aimed at yielding a significant deviation of carbon dioxide emission compared to “business as usual” scenarios and the recommendations made by the IPCC.
2. Full transparency of commitments taken by developed countries and of the actions adopted by developing countries.
3. The adoption of a fast start fund of $10 Billion per year covering the next 3 years, 2010, 2011, 2012. It will be dedicated to adaption and mitigation actions including the fight against deforestation.
4. A strong commitment on long term public financing based on developing countries’ needs beyond 2012.
5. The establishment of a World Environment Organization that will ensure the environment’s sustainable development and the fight against climate change.
The Philippines is a signatory and have ratified both the
United Nations Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto
Protocol
•Bio-Fuels Programs
•Ethanol
•Jethropa (Initial 375,000 Hectares
Allocated for Production)
•CoCo-Diesel
•Compressed Natural Gas
Signed Memorandum of
Understanding, with
Chinese investor
R. A NO. 9637 – BIOFUEL ACT
MANDATORY MIXING IN THE FOLLOWING AMOUNT:
• 1% BIODIESEL IN PETRODIESEL AND 5% ETHANOL IN
GASOLINE FOR THE FIRST 4 YEARS AND IT WILL BE
INCREASED TO:
• 2% BIODIESEL IN PETRODIESEL AND 1O% ETHANOL IN
GASOLINE AFTER 4 YEARS.
CAMPAIGN AGAINST VIOLATORS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS
• CAMPAIGN VS. SMOKE BELCHERS: 28,517 VEHICLES TESTED IN EDSA
(2007):
a. 6,058 VEHICLES OR 21% PASSED
b. 22,459 VEHICLES OR 79% FAILED
• CAMPAIGN VS. POLLUTING INDUSTRIES:
a. 6,690 INSPECTIONS/SAMPLING CONDUCTED:
b. 532 NOTICES OF VIOLATION ISSUED
PUBLIC UTILITY DRIVERS ASSISTED IN ACQUIRING
NEW/CLEANER ENGINES AND VEHICLES
WASTE MANAGEMENT: 1,080 OPENDUMPSITES NATIONWIDE:
• ASSISTING LGU’S IN
WASTE PROPER
MANAGEMENT
• IDENTIFIED366
POTENTIAL SANITARY
LANDFILL NATIONWIDE
• SHIFT IN ENERGY MIX FROM FOSSIL FUELS (OIL AND COAL)
TO RENEWABLE SOURCES (WATER, WIND, NATURAL GAS,
GEOTHERMAL)
• PRESENT MIX: FOSSIL FUELS- 58.4% AND RENEWABLE
SOURCES- 41.6%
• TARGET: FOSSIL FUELS – 49.2% AND RENEWABLE
SOURCES- 50.8% BY 2014.
• 8 Project from Philippines Accepted by U.N. and Qualified as
CDM Projects. Will Prevent Emission of About 253,919 tons of
carbon dioxide equivalent per year. Most are waste to Energy
Projects.
• Philippines Ranks 8th in the World in terms of Number of CDM
Projects Accepted by U.N.
• 32 CDM Project submitted to DENR, these are waste to
energy, renewable energy (wind, geothermal and hydro)
Cogeneration and Composting Project
• Reforested 85,235 Hectares in 2006
• Planted 845,656 Seedlings during
one-day Launching of Green
Philippines Highways
• More Ambitious Target starting 2007
a. Generate 20 Million Seedlings
b. Implement Green Philippines
Program
YOU CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE
• MINIMIZE/DISPENSE WITH ACTIVITIES THAT USE GREENHOUSE GASSES (E.G., CONSERVE USE OF ELECTRICITY)
• MORE EFFICIENT PRODUCTION PROCESS FOR BUSINESS USING FUELS. GOOD FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND GOOD FOR PROFITS.
• DEVELOP CDM PROJECTS FOR CARBON TRADING
• LIMIT USE OF CAR AND ENSURE GOOD RUNNING CONDITION.
• JOIN THE GREEN PHILIPPINES PROGRAM.
• USE ALTERNATIVE FUELS(BIODIESEL,BIOMASS,ETC.)
What can we do
about Climate
Change?
“We can then be sure that we can
bequeath to our children our EARTH in
much better shape than when we
inherited it”
“Let it be known that this is our only
EARTH”
“It is our future and our children’s
future”
“IT IS OUR CHOICE”