Global Warming and Water Resources. Frequently asked Questions Is global warming occurring? Why does global warming occur? How do we predict global warming?

Global Warming

and

Water Resources

Frequently asked Questions

• Is global warming occurring?

• Why does global warming occur?

• How do we predict global warming?

• Are the current climate models reliable?

Average Temperature Anomaly in Northern Hemisphere during the Last One Thousand years

Temporal Variation of CO2 Concentration during the last 1,000 years

Radiative Heat Budget of the Earth

Greenhouse Effect of the Atmosphere

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Global Grid System

Annual Mean Rate of Precipitation, cm/day

Annual Mean Soil Moisture, Simulated

Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of the world

Temporal CO2 variation, prescribed

Surface Temperature Anomaly of 2007 from the base period 1961-1990

04/18/2315

Global Mean Changes in Surface Temperature (°C) and Precipitation / Evaporation (%)

∆TsG ∆Precip.

= ∆Evap.

2050 +2.3ºC +5.3%

4xC +5.5ºC +12.7%

Atmospheric Circulation

Soil Moisture Change (in percent)

= [(Wafter – Wbefore) / Wbefore ] x 100

Wbefore : soil moisture before global warming

Wafter : soil moisture after global warming

% change in Annual Mean Soil Moisture

% Change in Seasonal Mean Soil Moisture, 4xC

Summary

• Water-Rich Regions:

Increased Water Availability (e.g., River Discharge)

Increased Frequency of Intense Flood

• Water-Poor Regions:

Increased Frequency of Drought

Gradual Outward Expansion of Desert

Enhance the Existing Contrast between Water-Rich and Water-Poor Region of the World

Climate Change - a Multiplier for Instability

Recent Conflicts

DemographyDemography Crop decline Hunger Coastal riskWater scarcity

Rainfall Intensity versus Frequency

Observation and Adaptation

• Monitoring of Global Water Cycle

• Improved Water Resource Management

Long-Term , Global Monitoring

1. Distribution of

(a) Precipitation (histogram of intensity)

(b) Snow Cover, Glacier & Ice Sheets

(c) Soil Moisture

(d) Vegetation & Permafrost

2. Rate of river discharge

Through in-situ and satellite observation (e.g., visible, microwave, long-wave radiation, etc)

Signal-to-Noise Ratio

S / N = ∆ / σ

∆ ; Change due to Global Warming

σ ; Standard Deviation: Natural Variability

S/N (Rainfall) >> S/N (Temperature)

Improved Management of Water Resources

• Desalinization

• Filtering / Recycling

• Conservation

• Storage (Dam, Artificial Lake)

• Pipeline and Canal

• Genetic Engineering Agriculture

• Changes in Agricultural Practice

End of Presentation