Global Vegetable Oils Market Trends: Demand Analysis and Strategic Planning Initiatives Yasutomo Kojima Joe Parcell Jewelwayne Cain Department of Agricultural.

Global Vegetable Oils Market Trends: Demand Analysis and Strategic Planning Initiatives

Yasutomo Kojima Joe Parcell

Jewelwayne Cain

Department of Agricultural and Applied EconomicsUniversity of Missouri-Columbia

Introduction

Vegetable oils consumption, production and trade have become one of the global topics of interest due to several factors:

(i) rising global demand for vegetable oils, especially in emerging economies

(ii) health problems related to trans fats (trans fatty acids: TFA)

(iii) increasing use of vegetable oils as biofuels feedstock along with crude oil price surge

(iv) international concerns over the environmental impacts of palm logging

In these circumstances, in order to understand global vegetable oils market trends, it has become essentially important to analyze global demand for vegetable oils from the aspects of food use and industrial use, and to clarify the demand structure of edible and non-edible vegetable oils.

The Objective of This Study

The objective of this paper is

to estimate demand function of vegetable oils for food use and industrial use with cross-country panel data of 156 countries

to investigate global demand structure of edible and non-edible vegetable oils

to think about strategic planning initiatives

Previous Research (1)Empirical analysis of food, biofuel and energy markets. There are mainly three types of approaches, such as

1) Theoretical models (Gardner 2007; de Gorter and Just 2008; de Gorter and Just 2009)

2) Cointegration analyses (Yu et al. 2006; Hameed and Arshad 2008; Peri and Baldi 2010)

3) Partial and general equilibrium (CGE) models (Arnt et al. 2008, Kancs and Wohlgemuch 2008)

4) Theoretical and empirical analysis (Ciaian and Kancs 2011)

In order to empirically analyze vegetable oils market based on those theoretical models, we need to estimate demand elasticities of vegetable oils from a global perspective. Currently, the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) does not provide elasticity estimates of vegetable oils to the public.

Previous Research (2)

From a regional perspective, Goddard and Glance (1989) analyzed demand relationships among twelve fats and oils in United States, Canada and Japan with data of per capita disappearance from 1962-86.

Their study did not include rapeseed oil in the demand equation for the U.S. in their model.

And also, they excluded sunflower oil in the model for three countries because some data was unavailable over some or all of the estimation period.

We focus on global markets of four vegetable oils: soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil, sunflower oil

We estimate own- and cross-price elasticities in the global market and identified income elasticities by geographic regions of Africa, America, Asia, Europe and Oceania for food use and industrial use, respectively.

Edible: Food 52.6% in 2009Non-Edible: Feed, Seed, Waste, Processing and Other Utilities 47.4% in 2009

Demand elasticity estimates will be useful for future research, such as policy analysis related to the area of agriculture and energy.

Demand　 Analysis

Soybean

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

Rapeseed Oil

Palm Oil

Sunflower Oil

Soybean Complex

1990-94 Average

Share1995-2000

AverageShare

2000-2004 Average

Share2005-2009

AverageShare

Soybean Oil 2.78 29.7% 2.89 29.5% 3.28 31.7% 3.37 30.4%Palm Oil 1.13 12.1% 1.36 13.9% 1.58 15.3% 1.91 17.3%Rape and Mustard Oil 1.37 14.6% 1.42 14.5% 1.33 12.9% 1.44 13.0%Sunflowerseed Oil 1.28 13.7% 1.33 13.6% 1.25 12.1% 1.29 11.6%Groundnut Oil 0.75 8.0% 0.74 7.6% 0.70 6.8% 0.66 6.0%Cottonseed Oil 0.60 6.4% 0.55 5.6% 0.52 5.1% 0.56 5.1%Olive Oil 0.36 3.8% 0.37 3.8% 0.41 4.0% 0.43 3.9%Coconut Oil 0.26 2.8% 0.25 2.5% 0.28 2.7% 0.32 2.9%Maize Germ Oil 0.30 3.2% 0.32 3.2% 0.32 3.1% 0.32 2.9%Oilcrops Oil, Other 0.22 2.3% 0.24 2.5% 0.25 2.4% 0.28 2.5%Palmkernel Oil 0.12 1.3% 0.12 1.2% 0.19 1.9% 0.27 2.4%Ricebran Oil 0.09 0.9% 0.10 1.0% 0.11 1.1% 0.12 1.1%Sesameseed Oil 0.11 1.2% 0.11 1.1% 0.11 1.1% 0.11 1.0%Vegetable Oils (Total) 9.35 100.0% 9.80 100.0% 10.33 100.0% 11.09 100.0%Four Major Vegetable Oils 6.55 70.0% 7.01 71.5% 7.43 72.0% 8.01 72.2%

Food supply quantity (kg/capita/yr)

Table 1. World Average of Edible Vegetable Oils Consumption per Capita

Source: FAOSTAT.

Table 2. Edible Vegetable Oils Consumption Share by Region

All Vegetable Oils

Soybean Oil Rape and Mustard Oil

Sunflowerseed Oil

Palm Oil Palmkernel Oil

Eastern Africa 1.8 0.8 0.3 1.4 4.3 1.1Middle Africa 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.7 1.1Northern Africa 2.7 2.5 1.5 5.2 0.7 1.6Southern Africa 0.9 0.6 0.0 3.9 0.3 1.5Western Africa 4.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 12.6 37.7Northern America 13.0 31.7 9.1 0.9 0.1 2.4Central America 2.2 3.2 1.2 2.2 2.8 0.3Caribbean 0.5 1.1 - 0.4 0.7 0.0South America 7.5 15.8 0.3 7.7 6.3 4.3Central Asia 0.9 0.2 0.1 1.5 - -Eastern Asia 18.8 17.5 38.0 4.4 19.4 4.5Southern Asia 17.9 10.5 25.7 9.1 25.1 1.5South-Eastern Asia 5.2 3.2 0.2 1.2 12.3 32.0Western Asia 4.0 2.0 0.2 6.8 6.3 4.9Eastern Europe 5.4 1.7 4.9 30.3 1.0 0.4Northern Europe 2.4 1.7 7.6 2.2 1.5 1.4Southern Europe 5.6 2.7 1.2 12.0 1.1 1.0Western Europe 5.4 4.0 7.9 10.2 2.8 4.1Australia and New Zealand 0.7 0.2 1.4 0.5 1.1 0.0Melanesia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Micronesia 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 - -Polynesia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -Total 100 100 100 100 100 100

HHI (Degree of Concentration) 1,077 1,731 2,338 1,433 1,440 2,544

1990-2009 Average Consumption Consumption Share: %

Africa

America

Asia

Europe

Oceania

Source: Own calculations based on FAOSTAT.

Table 3. Change in Edible Vegetable Oils Consumption Share from 1990s to 2000s


All Vegetable Oils

Soybean Oil Rape and Mustard Oil

Sunflowerseed Oil

Palm Oil Palmkernel Oil

Eastern Africa 0.4 0.2 -0.3 0.9 0.8 -0.5Middle Africa 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.8Northern Africa -0.5 0.6 -1.5 -2.0 -0.3 -0.5Southern Africa 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.9Western Africa 0.5 0.2 -0.7 0.0 -3.5 0.7Northern America -0.5 -4.6 3.0 0.2 -0.3 -3.7Central America -0.2 -0.3 0.8 -2.6 0.8 0.2Caribbean 0.0 0.1 - -0.3 -0.3 0.0South America 0.2 0.0 0.0 -1.1 0.0 -2.0Central Asia -0.2 -0.1 0.0 1.0 - -Eastern Asia 0.3 3.7 -4.1 -2.2 1.9 1.7Southern Asia 0.9 1.0 2.0 0.3 7.8 1.0South-Eastern Asia 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 -3.8 10.8Western Asia 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 -0.3 1.1Eastern Europe -0.1 0.2 -1.0 4.8 0.5 -0.1Northern Europe -0.4 -0.3 0.2 -0.5 -1.2 0.0Southern Europe -0.9 -0.5 -0.5 0.3 -0.6 -1.1Western Europe -0.6 -1.0 1.2 -0.9 -1.2 -5.7Australia and New Zealand 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.6 1.3 0.0Melanesia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Micronesia 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 - -Polynesia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -

Africa

America

Asia

Europe

Oceania

Note. These data show the difference in consumption share (%) from 1990’s to 2000’s.

Figure 1. World Average of Edible and Non-Edible Vegetable Oils Consumption per Capita


Edible Vegetable Oils: Average Consumption Per Capita and Real Price Non-Edible Vegetable Oils: Average Consumption Per Capita and Real Price

1990-2009 Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max 1990-2009 Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min MaxSoybean oil 1,890 3,068 3,529 0.12 23,160 Soybean oil 934 2,551 3,326 0.02 29,892

Rapeseed oil 1,363 1,927 3,038 0.03 17,978 Rapeseed oil 1,049 2,689 4,966 0.01 45,431Plam oil 1,340 2,430 2,376 0.20 10,902 Plam oil 1,447 4,458 11,317 0.31 164,014

Sunflower oil 1,881 2,217 3,122 0.06 16,221 Sunflower oil 778 1,751 2,723 0.03 20,796Soybean oil 1,897 935 563 154 5,732 Soybean oil 1,794 855 362 154 2,914

Rapeseed oil 1,897 1,164 734 146 5,995 Rapeseed oil 1,794 1,053 497 146 2,992Plam oil 1,897 868 580 208 5,844 Plam oil 1,794 792 378 208 2,907

Sunflower oil 1,897 1,136 638 293 5,974 Sunflower oil 1,794 1,043 416 293 2,982Crude oil 1,794 254 115 80 680

1990-1999 Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max 1990-1999 Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min MaxSoybean oil 739 2,943 3,674 0.12 20,612 Soybean oil 336 2,160 2,961 0.04 22,453

Rapeseed oil 543 2,163 3,143 0.11 17,978 Rapeseed oil 408 1,796 2,909 0.05 20,706Plam oil 536 2,106 2,322 0.20 10,597 Plam oil 498 3,035 7,865 0.31 89,889

Sunflower oil 739 2,057 2,743 0.06 12,908 Sunflower oil 287 1,334 2,132 0.60 14,069Soybean oil 742 1,214 741 262 5,732 Soybean oil 659 1,041 424 262 2,721

Rapeseed oil 742 1,404 932 146 5,995 Rapeseed oil 659 1,175 542 146 2,992Plam oil 742 1,109 719 225 5,467 Plam oil 659 962 436 225 2,907

Sunflower oil 742 1,386 829 362 5,974 Sunflower oil 659 1,180 454 362 2,982Crude oil 659 171 68 80 680




Rapeseed oil 1,155 1,009 517 168 4,387 Rapeseed oil 1,135 982 454 168 2,940Plam oil 1,155 713 398 208 5,844 Plam oil 1,135 693 298 208 2,866

Sunflower oil 1,155 976 401 293 4,201 Sunflower oil 1,135 964 369 293 2,891Crude oil 1,135 302 109 151 610



Sunflower oil 553 2,161 3,138 0.15 15,039 Sunflower oil 225 1,573 2,677 0.03 20,796Soybean oil 560 684 247 154 3,108 Soybean oil 555 679 224 154 1,710

Rapeseed oil 560 891 455 168 4,387 Rapeseed oil 555 874 402 168 2,425Plam oil 560 655 331 259 4,026 Plam oil 555 649 300 259 2,866

Sunflower oil 560 892 351 293 3,312 Sunflower oil 555 883 324 293 2,891Crude oil 555 211 44 151 606




Rapeseed oil 595 1,120 546 229 4,000 Rapeseed oil 580 1,084 478 229 2,940Plam oil 595 767 446 208 5,844 Plam oil 580 736 290 208 2,762


Consumption (g/capita/year)


Real Price ($/t)

Real Price ($/t or /kl)

Real Price ($/t)

Cross-Country Data (156 Countries)






Real Price ($/t)


Real Price ($/t)






Real Price ($/t)



Table 4-1. Summary Statistics









Sunflower oil 739 2,057 2,743 0.06 12,908 Sunflower oil 287 1,334 2,132 0.60 14,069





Sunflower oil 1,142 2,320 3,342 0.10 16,221 Sunflower oil 491 1,995 2,990 0.03 20,796














Real Price ($/t)
































Edible

Non-Edible




























Real Price ($/t)




Edible Non-Edible

2000-2004 Average

2005-2009 Average



























Real Price ($/t)




Table 5. Rate of change in the mean of consumption and real price

From 1990-1990 to 2000-2009 averageEdible Oils Non-Edible Oils

Soybean oil 7% 28%Rapeseed oil -18% 81%

Plam oil 26% 71%Sunflower oil 13% 50%

Soybean oil -38% -28%Rapeseed oil -28% -16%

Plam oil -36% -28%Sunflower oil -30% -18%

Crude oil 76%

From 2000-2004 to 2005-2009 averageEdible Oils Non-Edible Oils

Soybean oil 5% 35%Rapeseed oil 0% 71%


Soybean oil 20% 20%Rapeseed oil 26% 24%


Crude oil 85%


Real Price ($/t or $/kl)


Real Price ($/t or $/kl)

Long term Change: 1990-1999 to 2000-2009 Average

Short term Change: 2000-2004 to 2005-2009 Average

Table 6. Real GDP Per Capita

Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min MaxAfrica 940 1,473 2,124 28 12,252America 620 6,481 8,424 451 43,774Asia 700 6,452 9,935 206 38,620Europe 760 20,369 18,146 352 87,911Oceania 100 12,618 13,716 767 40,479

Demand Model for Edible Vegetable Oils

1¿ ln 𝑃𝐶𝐶𝑂𝑁 𝐹 , 𝑖 ,𝑡=𝐶𝑖+∑𝑗=1

4

𝛾𝑖𝑗 𝑙𝑛𝑝 𝑗 ,𝑡+𝛽𝑖 𝑙𝑛𝑥𝑡×𝐷𝑟+𝜏 𝑖×𝐷𝑝𝑒+𝜀𝑖 ,𝑡 (𝑖=1 ,…,4 )

Double-log demand model for four edible vegetable oils

PCCONF,i,t ： per capita quantity of vegetable oil i consumed for food use at time tCi : constant term of vegetable oil i’s consumptionpj,t : real price of vegetable oil j (j = 1…4) at time txt : real GDP per capita at time t, Dr : region dummy variable (1 or zero) for five regions Africa, America, Asia, Europe and Oceania where countries are locatedDpe : preference dummy variable (1 or zero) for each country’s preference for a certain type of edible vegetable oil i. εi,t is a zero-mean, normally distributed constant variance disturbance

Ci, γij, βi and τi are parameters to be estimated

Demand Model for Non-Edible Vegetable Oils

Double-log demand model for four non-edible vegetable oils

PCCONF,i,t ： per capita quantity of vegetable oil i consumed for food use at time tCi : constant term of vegetable oil i’s consumptionpj,t : real price of vegetable oil j (j = 1…4) and crude oil j (j=5) at time txt : real GDP per capita at time t, Dr : region dummy variable (1 or zero) for five regions Africa, America, Asia, Europe and Oceania where countries are locatedDpn : preference dummy variable (1 or zero) for each country’s preference for a certain type of non-edible vegetable oil i. εi,t is a zero-mean, normally distributed constant variance disturbance

Ci, γij, βi and τi are parameters to be estimated

2¿ ln 𝑃𝐶𝐶𝑂𝑁 𝐼 , 𝑖 ,𝑡=𝐶𝑖+∑𝑗=1

5

𝛾𝑖𝑗 𝑙𝑛𝑝 𝑗 ,𝑡+𝛽𝑖 𝑙𝑛𝑥𝑡×𝐷𝑟+𝜏𝑖×𝐷𝑝𝑛+𝜀𝑖 , 𝑡 (𝑖=1,…, 4 )

Table 7. Estimation Results (156 Countries for 1990 - 2009)

Ln Soybean Oil Ln Rapeseed Oil Ln Palm Oil Ln Sunflower Oil Ln Soybean Oil Ln Rapeseed Oil Ln Palm Oil Ln Sunflower Oilb/t b/t b/t b/t b/t b/t b/t b/t

Ln Soybean Oil Real Price -0.38 0.12 0.33 0.29 -0.28 0.14 -0.29 0.02[-4.12]*** [0.66] [3.42]*** [2.53]** [-1.67]* [0.64] [-2.24]** [0.07]

Ln Rapeseed Oil Real Price 0.04 -0.91 0.00 0.02 -0.02 -1.31 -0.10 -0.03[0.73] [-7.61]*** [-0.02] [0.26] [-0.21] [-8.50]*** [-1.26] [-0.22]

Ln Palm Oil Real Price -0.11 0.41 -0.84 0.40 -0.25 0.50 -0.49 0.28[-1.49] [2.72]*** [-9.96]*** [4.10]*** [-1.90]* [2.75]*** [-4.07]*** [1.43]

Ln Sunflower Oil Real Price 0.03 0.27 0.21 -1.00 -0.02 -0.06 0.01 -0.96[0.33] [1.67]* [2.47]** [-9.15]*** [-0.12] [-0.28] [0.11] [-3.50]***

Ln CrudeOil Real Price 0.27 0.87 0.87 0.70[3.45]*** [8.46]*** [13.17]*** [5.80]***

Ln Real GDP per Capita in Africa 0.10 0.03 -0.04 0.18 0.14 0.27 0.13 -0.05[3.64]*** [0.54] [-1.42] [5.62]*** [3.57]*** [4.87]*** [4.35]*** [-0.74]

Ln Real GDP per Capita in America 0.14 0.12 -0.03 0.26 0.10 0.35 0.10 -0.07[6.10]*** [2.78]*** [-1.46] [9.79]*** [2.96]*** [7.71]*** [3.91]*** [-1.36]

Ln Real GDP per Capita in Asia 0.11 0.14 -0.03 0.22 0.10 0.29 0.13 -0.06[4.92]*** [3.04]*** [-1.29] [8.03]*** [3.03]*** [6.33]*** [5.00]*** [-1.11]

Ln Real GDP per Capita in Europe 0.11 0.13 -0.03 0.19 0.08 0.32 0.11 -0.03[5.41]*** [3.31]*** [-1.37] [7.91]*** [2.82]*** [7.47]*** [4.90]*** [-0.60]

Ln Real GDP per Capita in Oceania 0.12 0.16 -0.05 0.19 0.12 0.23 0.11 -0.06[4.92]*** [3.61]*** [-2.02]** [6.32]*** [3.61]*** [4.88]*** [4.12]*** [-1.06]

Strong Preference Dummy 3.73 5.03 3.64 4.80 3.70 4.77 3.83 4.79[38.14]*** [29.79]*** [41.00]*** [49.47]*** [28.91]*** [28.27]*** [39.19]*** [23.58]***

Moderate Preference Dummy 2.93 3.92 2.67 3.60 2.62 3.37 2.58 3.23[39.12]*** [28.29]*** [27.63]*** [36.32]*** [19.76]*** [20.41]*** [26.51]*** [13.37]***

Weak Preference Dummy 2.24 3.43 2.09 2.97 2.00 2.88 2.10 2.50[30.10]*** [18.32]*** [23.99]*** [25.52]*** [15.33]*** [15.08]*** [23.90]*** [8.96]***

Very Weak Preference Dummy 1.74 2.36 1.62 2.42 1.16 2.43 1.26 1.99[22.20]*** [13.09]*** [15.15]*** [22.98]*** [7.22]*** [14.44]*** [12.73]*** [6.28]***

Constant 7.09 3.18 6.87 3.99 5.98 0.62 5.15 3.69[15.33]*** [3.50]*** [13.62]*** [6.93]*** [7.04]*** [0.58] [7.27]*** [2.80]***

R-squared 0.68 0.70 0.65 0.77 0.60 0.73 0.63 0.60Adj-R-squared 0.68 0.69 0.65 0.77 0.59 0.73 0.63 0.59

N 1,890 1,347 1,328 1,833 920 1,034 1,436 774F 312 235 189 465 96 197 176 80

Root-MSE 1.0 1.6 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4* p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

Per Capita Consumption in 156 Countries (1990-2009) Per Capita Consumption in 156 Countries (1990-2009)

Edible vegetable oils Non-Edible vegetable oils







0.27 0.87 0.87 0.70[3.45]*** [8.46]*** [13.17]*** [5.80]***










Constant 7.09 3.18 6.87 3.99 5.98 0.62 5.15 3.69[15.33]*** [3.50]*** [13.62]*** [6.93]*** [7.04]*** [0.58] [7.27]*** [2.80]***


N 1,890 1,347 1,328 1,833 920 1,034 1,436 774F 312 235 189 465 96 197 176 80

Root-MSE 1.0 1.6 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4* p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

Per Capita Consumption in 156 Countries (1990-2009)

Edible vegetable oils

















Constant 7.09 3.18 6.87 3.99 5.98 0.62 5.15 3.69[15.33]*** [3.50]*** [13.62]*** [6.93]*** [7.04]*** [0.58] [7.27]*** [2.80]***


N 1,890 1,347 1,328 1,833 920 1,034 1,436 774F 312 235 189 465 96 197 176 80

Root-MSE 1.0 1.6 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4* p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

Per Capita Consumption in 156 Countries (1990-2009)

Non-Edible vegetable oils
















Constant 7.09 3.18 6.87 3.99 5.98 0.62 5.15 3.69[15.33]*** [3.50]*** [13.62]*** [6.93]*** [7.04]*** [0.58] [7.27]*** [2.80]***


N 1,890 1,347 1,328 1,833 920 1,034 1,436 774F 312 235 189 465 96 197 176 80

Root-MSE 1.0 1.6 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4* p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

Figure 2. Cross-Price Effect on Global Demand for Edible and Non-Edible Vegetable Oils

Note. Arrow represents the direction of cross price effect on demand for the other vegetable oils at least the 10% significance level.

Figure 3. World Average of Non-Edible Vegetable Oils Consumption per Capita and Crude Oil Nominal Price

Strategic Planning Initiatives

1) Policy and regulation: e.g. Trans Fats Issue2) Competitive product positioning: e.g. Emphasis on a vegetable oil’s positive characteristics3) Technological innovation: e.g. High-oleic soybean innovation and commercialization

Key Point: Cost Performance after Quality Innovation

Because our paper finds that soybean oil price plays a central role in demand determination of other edible vegetable oils in a global market of edible vegetable oils through its cross-price substitution effect.

Thank you for your attention.

Global Vegetable Oils Market Trends: Demand Analysis and Strategic Planning Initiatives Yasutomo Kojima Joe Parcell Jewelwayne Cain Department of Agricultural.

Documents

use of vegetable oils

nonedible vegetable

demand relationships

demand equation

global perspective

global markets

industrial use

demand elasticity estimates