• Global summary • Northern hemisphere extra-tropics: jet stream and tropopause dynamics Russian heatwave, Pakistan floods • Attribution studies Seasonal Climate – Summer 2010 Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion, 26 November 2010
Global summary Northern hemisphere extra-tropics: jet stream and tropopause dynamics
Feb 03, 2016
Seasonal Climate – Summer 2010. Global summary Northern hemisphere extra-tropics: jet stream and tropopause dynamics Russian heatwave, Pakistan floods Attribution studies. Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion, 26 November 2010. Beijing Climate Center bcc.cma.gov.cn/en. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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• Global summary
• Northern hemisphere extra-tropics:
jet stream and tropopause dynamics
Russian heatwave, Pakistan floods
• Attribution studies
Seasonal Climate – Summer 2010
Mike Blackburn
Seasonal Climate Discussion, 26 November 2010
Beijing Climate Center bcc.cma.gov.cn/en
Winter El Niño to Summer La Niña
NOAA ESRL
2m Temperature, anomaly JJA 2010
NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
Tropical Convection
CPC / NCEP & Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
Equatorial OLR anomaly 5N–5SOLR anomaly JJA 2010
Global Circulation – JJAWinds, 200hPaStreamfunction, sigma=0.210
Streamfunction, sigma=0.850 Winds, 850hPa
Global Circulation – JJA streamfunctionanomaly, sigma=0.210Streamfunction, sigma=0.210
Streamfunction, sigma=0.850 anomaly, sigma=0.850
Temperature anomalies
NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
UK mean temperature (anomaly)
April May June
July Aug Sept
UK precipitation (% normal)
April May June
July Aug Sept
July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly)
ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)
25 June – 02 July
July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly)
ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)
02 – 09 July
July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly)
ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)
09 – 16 July
July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly)
ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)
16 – 23 July
July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly)
ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)
23 – 30 July
July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly)
ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)
30 July – 11 August
July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly)
ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)
11 – 20 August
Dynamical tropopause evolution
23-30 July 30 July – 11 Aug
ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)
250hPa winds, 24-30 July
Climatology
NOAA ESRL
250hPa winds, 24-30 July
2010
NOAA ESRL
NOAA attribution studies
• Aim to attribute extreme anomalies
variability (regression / historical analogues)
climate warming?
• Martin Hoerling: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/
NOAA attribution studies
Summary
• Persistent waves on northern jet stream
• (blocking) anticyclone) over western Russia
strong upstream & downstream troughs
jet entrance forcing of ascent over Pakistan?
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