Global Publishing Markets Mapping data, developments, and patterns of the publishing industry worldwide. A study for the International Publishers Association (IPA), supported by the London Book Fair and BookExpo America. Presented at the London Book fair, April 16, 2012
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Global Publishing Markets Mapping data, developments, and patterns
of the publishing industry worldwide.
A study for the International Publishers Association (IPA), supported by the London Book Fair and BookExpo America. Presented at the London Book fair, April 16, 2012
The goal of the survey
Maping & understanding
the role and the value
of books and publishing
in the global knowledge society
The guidelines of the survey
A global survey of publishing markets
By country and
By region
Ultimately:
A map of global publishing
Develop a grid for comparing and understanding the publishing industry:
The market dynamics
The differences between countries and regions
The cultural background
The wider context
What data?
The key indicators Market indicators:
Publishers‘ annual revenues
Market size at consumer value
Number of titles published (new & re-editions)
Number of copies printed
Imports & exports
What data?
The key indicators: References :
Number of titles by million inhabitants of a country
GDP per capita
Exports & Imports
What data?
The key indicators: Contexts:
Number of titles by million inhabitants of a country
Import / export balance
GDP per capita
Purchasing power parity
The sources
Methodology:
1. Publishers' revenues
2. Market value (at consumer prices)
3. Titles published (new & re-editions)
4. Selected exports data
Data sources:
Professional organisations and government
Professional media
Expert estimates
Projections & cross referencing
The status quo
This preliminary version („Beta“):
50+ countries
Ca. 50 bn € of publishers‘ revenues
Ca. 80 bn € of market value
17 markets with over 1 bn€ value
Findings 2012: Samples & case studies
Increase the number of countries
Starting to record a „history“ with data
Profile regions (e.g. Asia, Arab countries)
Compare sets of markets (e.g.emerging markets)
Compare revenue developments & production statistics in US, Europe
Use exports to map data poor countries
Chart exports against domestic production
Develop historic profiles
The largest book markets (01)
Country Publishers‘ revenues (m€)
Market value (m€)
Titles per 1 m inhabitants
USA 18.927 € 27.445 € 985 PR China 10.602 € 245 Germany 4.530 € 9.734 € 1172 Japan 7.129 € 586 UK 3.738 € 4.080 € 2459 France 2.838 € 4.620 € 1267 India (est. 2007) 1.675 € 87 Italy 1.640 € 3.417 € 956
The largest book markets (02)
Country Publishers‘ revenues (m€)
Market value (m€)
Titles per 1 m inhabitants
Spain 2.891 € 1692 Korea 2.265 € 824 Brazil 2.027 € 271 Russia 1.771 € Canada 1.535 € Australia (prel.) 1.520 € 860 Poland 697 € 1.123 € 571 Taiwan 1.200 € 1522 Netherlands 1.174 € 1412
US World (- Can, UK) 2.586 2.632 2.741 2.818 8,97%
France World (07) 694 665 704 1,5% Spain World 335 252 - 25%
Exports INTO emerging markets (local curr.)
Target 2005 2007 2010 2011 %
UK Brazil 4.800.000 15.629.128 225,61%
US Brazil 39.593.730 70.747.452 71.073.993 83.016.841 109,67%
FR Brazil 2.220.000 3.017.000
UK China 13.700.000 25.500.484 86,13%
US China 81.313.761 111.700.611 164.093.903 168.008.841 106,62%
FR China 1.255.000 2.841.000
UK India 19.900.000 32.633.069 63,99%
US India 38.709.885 80.258.983 57.175.337 57.342.181 48,13%
UK South
Korea 11.000.000 16.776.494 52,51%
US South
Korea 73.149.229 94.592.220 79.260.845 77.407.253 5,82%
UK Malaysia 5.500.000 6.113.115 11,15%
US Malaysia 14.093.422 24.111.601 19.714.463 24.279.323 72,27%
-20,00%
0,00%
20,00%
40,00%
60,00%
80,00%
100,00%
120,00%
140,00%
160,00%
180,00%
- €
20.000.000 €
40.000.000 €
60.000.000 €
80.000.000 €
100.000.000 €
120.000.000 €
140.000.000 €
UK & US Exports into selected emerging markets (in €)
2005 (€) 2011 (€) % in € (2005 - 2011)
-20,00%
0,00%
20,00%
40,00%
60,00%
80,00%
100,00%
120,00%
140,00%
160,00%
180,00%
- €
20.000.000 €
40.000.000 €
60.000.000 €
80.000.000 €
100.000.000 €
120.000.000 €
140.000.000 €
UK & US Exports into selected emerging markets (in €)
2005 (€) 2011 (€) % in € (2005 - 2011)
???
0,00%
50,00%
100,00%
150,00%
200,00%
250,00%
300,00%
- €
5.000.000 €
10.000.000 €
15.000.000 €
20.000.000 €
25.000.000 €
30.000.000 €
35.000.000 €
40.000.000 €
45.000.000 €
50.000.000 €
UK & US Exports into Arab countries (in €)
2010/2011 (€) % (2005 - 2011)
0,00%
50,00%
100,00%
150,00%
200,00%
250,00%
300,00%
- €
5.000.000 €
10.000.000 €
15.000.000 €
20.000.000 €
25.000.000 €
30.000.000 €
35.000.000 €
40.000.000 €
45.000.000 €
50.000.000 €
UK & US Exports into Arab countries (in €)
2010/2011 (€) % (2005 - 2011)
!!!
US / UK imports into EU main markets
-30,00%
-20,00%
-10,00%
0,00%
10,00%
20,00%
30,00%
40,00%
50,00%
60,00%
70,00%
0
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UK US UK US UK US UK US UK US
2005
2009
2011
% (2005 - 2011)
US / UK imports into EU main markets
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UK US UK US UK US UK US UK US
2005
2009
2011
% (2005 - 2011)
Country case study India
Unique market environment: Strong role of English Strong market presence of UK publishers Many local languages High share of educational (90%?) over trade (10?) Prominent role of the Indian government in educational
No official data Divide between private & public sector High fragmentation Patterns of emerging market (BRIC) New global players not yet arrived (e.g. Amazon) Imminent change by new game changing factors
60$ tablet (mid 2012) Flipkart
Country case study: Arab countries
300 m Arabic speakers, BUT High fragmentation by country Low literacy Low prestige of reading Low penetration of ‚knowledge drivers‘ Pragmatic constraints Censorship Political instability Piracy Lack of distribution infrastructure
No data available, except: Some production Ca. 15,000 new titles & reeditions per yr. (est., excl. Maghreb) Imports
Contraditory developments Growth of imports Decline of domestic sales
2 highly divergent trajectories: Gulf & Saudi Arabia All other Arab countries
Drivers of change: Emergence of a (small) media savy elite Mobile reading English reading
Outlook
Most wanted indicators & definitions
Publishers revenues
Market value
Background on specific market features (pricing policies, government involvement esp. sn education, ave. prices trade)
Import & export
Number of new titles
Number of copies sold
Next steps in data research and in developing „context“: