Global migration patterns and drivers - University of Oxford · Global migration: some basic facts About 90% of currently 245 million international migrants moved voluntarily, the

Mathias CzaikaDanube University Krems, Austria

Global migration –

patterns and drivers

Emerging Markets Symposium 2018

Green Templeton College, Oxford

Global migration: some basic facts

➢ About 90% of currently 245 million international migrants moved voluntarily, the remaining 24 million (~10%) are refugees and asylum seekers

➢ Half of all international migrants moved from developing to developed countries

➢ About 10 destination countries host half of all international migrants

➢ About a quarter of all international migrants originate from 5 emerging economies

➢ One-fifth of all international migration is concentrated in 15 country pairs

➢ Immigration makes up more than half of labour force growth in Western countries

➢ A third of all international migrants are highly skilled (i.e. tertiary educated)

➢ Half of all refugees are hosted in the Middle East and North Africa, and about 90 % are hosted in (conflict-neighboring) developing countries

➢ Migration and mobility are key features and correlates of interconnecting economies and societies

International migrant stocks by world region and

as a percentage of world population, 1960-2015

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

[in

mil

lion

s]

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

North America

Middle East & North Africa

Latin America & Caribbean

Europe & Central Asia

East Asia & Pacific

World Migration Rate

Source: Own, based on World Bank (2017)

Global migration: major hubs and corridors

http://metrocosm.com/global-immigration-map/

Note: Net migration flows between 2010-15 based on UNPD.

Migration transitions since 1960

Source: Czaika and de Haas (2014)

Major shifts in global migration

between 1995 and 2015

29%

3% 1%

7%

Middle income 10% Low income

High income

25% 7%

15%

Middle income 10% Low income

↓16% ↓4%

↑40%

2% 1%

↑11%

High income

13%

Data source: UNDESA (2015)

1995 2015

3% 3%

The top 10 migrant origins and destinations,

in million, 2015

Source: UNDESA (2016)

The “average” OECD immigrant is increasingly educated OECD immigrant stocks by educational attainment, 1980–2010

Note: Linear trend estimation of average emigration rates of migrations from 196 countries of origin into twenty OECD

destination countries. Source: Czaika (2018)

What drives migration?International migration processes are the result of

complex interactions of multiple migration drivers

such as

a. Development gaps and internal/international inequality

b. Economic and political integration („globalisation“)

c. Political and ethnic conflicts

d. Geographic proximity

e. Cultural similarities (language, culture, lifestyle)

f. Historial (incl. colonial) ties

g. Social networks and diasporas

h. Migration and non-migration policies

i. ...

Source: Freedom House (2017)

Deterioration of civil and human rights situations,

2006-16

Source: Economist 2016

Fertility rates, 1970 Fertility rates, 2014

Demographic Transitions, 1970-2014

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fertility rates by level of development

More developed regions Less developed regions Least developed countries

Data source: UNPD projections

Demographic Transition & Convergence

The European demographic transitionPopulation change by component (annual crude rates), EU-28, 1960–2015 (per 1 000 persons)

Total EU-28

population has

increased by about

100 million people

between 1960 and

2015

Source: Eurostat (2017)

Global labour force by educational attainment,

1950–2010

Note: Linear trend estimations based on educational attainment data for 146 countries from www.barrolee.com of population aged

twenty-five and older. Source: Czaika (2018)

Global emigration rates by educational attainment,

1980–2010

Source: Czaika (2018)

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

[IN USD P.C.] High-income Middle-income Low-income

USD 20 445

USD 34 826

Data source: OECD (2017)

Growing income gaps, 1995-2015

Declining absolute poverty headcount ratios by region, 2011 (ppp)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990

2002

2012

1990

2002

2012

1990

2002

2012

1990

2002

2012

1990

2002

2012

1990

2002

2012

Sub-SaharanAfrica

South Asia East Asia andthe Pacific

Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

Middle Eastand North

Africa

Europe andCentral Asia

%

USD 1.90 a day

Source: World Bank (2016)

Shift in global income distribution,

1970 vs. 2010

Source: World Bank (2017)

The ‘elephant curve’ of global inequality and growth,

1980–2016

Source: WIR (2018)

Global versus country income distributions, 2011

„Internal vs international inequality and mobility options“

Source: Milanovic (2016)

Internal income inequality in emerging

economies, 1990-2013, [in Gini]

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

India Indonesia China(People'sRepublic

of)

SouthAfrica

Brazil Malaysia Argentina Nigeria Philippines Iran Russia Thailand Pakistan

Increasing inequality Decreasing inequality

1990-95 1996-2000 2001-05 2006-10 2011-13

United States (2013)

Sweden (2012)

Source: World Bank (2016)

Emigration rates by level of development

(‘migration transition curve’)

Source: OECD (2017)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

600 1 200 2 400 4 800 9 600 19 200 38 400 76 800

GDP per capita (USD, log scale´)

BrazilIndia China

Malaysia

Jordan

Pakistan

Economic growth has stimulated emigration from emerging

economies, but it has affected emigration patterns differently

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Emigration rate (%)

Brazil Colombia Mexico

Source: OECD (2017)

Migration policy transitions

Source: Cerna/Czaika (2018)

Changes in migration policy restrictiveness,

1995-2014

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

High-income countries Middle-income countries

Index>0: more restrictive

Index<0: less restrictive

Source: DEMIG (2015)

The rise of high-skilled migration policies,

2005–15

Source: Own calculations based on World Population Policies database (various years)

A global mobility divide?‘The unequal value of the passport’ - Visa-free travel opportunities by

nationality, 2000s

Source: Czaika et al (2017)

Visa restrictiveness towards internal vs. external

nationalities of regional economic blocs

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Internal External

Note: AFTA: ASEAN Free Trade Area; APTA: Asia Pacific Trade Agreement; CACM: Central American Common Market; CAN: Andean Community; CARICOM:

Caribbean Community; CEFTA: Central European Free Trade Agreement; CEMAC: Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa; CIS: Commonwealth

of Independent States Free Trade Agreement; COMESA: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa; EAC: East African Community; ECOWAS:

Economic Community of West African States; EFTA: European Free Trade Association; EU: European Union; GCC: Gulf Cooperation Council; LAIA: Latin

American Integration Association; MERCOSUR: Mercado Común del Sur - Common market of the South; NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement;

PAFTA: Pan-Arab Free Trade Area; SACU: Southern African Customs Union; SADC: Southern African Development Community; SAFTA: South Asian Free

Trade Agreement

Source: Czaika et al (2017)

To conclude…

➢ Global migration has slightly intensified since 1990s, but has

predominantly diversified across countries of origin and concentrated in

small number of countries of destination

➢ Economic development may decrease or increase emigration

propensities depending on the level of development

➢ BUT: The type and „skill content“ of emigration changes along

development trajectories

➢ Migration is embedded in wider global and regional transformation and

integration processes

➢ ‘Root causes’ and drivers of migration are complex, multi-causal, and

structural and therefore, hard to influence in the short-term

➢ Migration policy takes place in the context of global demographic

change, structural labor demand, and unequal globalization dynamic

➢ Migration policy which aims to counteract structural migratory forces in

countries of origin and destination, is doomed to fail its objectives

Few words on development impact…

➢ International migration boosts global productivity, contributing about 10% of global GDP, despite making up only about 3.4% of world population

➢ International migrants remit more than 500 billion USD per year back into their home countries (with positive impact on poverty but ambiguous impact on inequality)

➢ Migration can neither be blamed for lack of development, nor can migration be expected to trigger a massive development spurt

➢ Migration generally tends to reinforce existing development processes rather than radically changing their direction

➢ Without state-institutional, development-enhancing reforms, migration is unlikely to make a significant contribution to development, but rather leads to cementation of underdevelopment

➢ However, once a growth and development process is underway, migration reinforces these developments through remittances, investment and return

➢ Migration can contribute to poverty reduction and development

➢ BUT: Migration is not a solution to wider structural development problems

Future migration:

the size of the “migration potential”?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Desire to move Plan to move in thenext 12 months

Making preparations tomove

Mill

ion

s

630

14% of

population

aged 15

and over

8% of

those who

wish to

migrate

39% of those

who plan to

move

Source: Gallup (2012)

Aspired vs. actual migration

(‘aspiration-capability gap’)

0

5

10

15

20

25

High-income countries Middle-income countries Low-income countries

Average proportion of people who aspire to move permanently abroad in 2013Average proportion of emigrants in the population of origin country in 2015

Source: Gallup (2012)

Thank you for your attention

[email protected]

The future of global migration?

Source: McKinsey (2016)

Source: McKinsey (2016)

Global total of refugees and asylum seekers,

in millions

Global ‘upward mobility’

Countries of origin and destination by level of development, 2000-2015

A stable flow: financial remittance

Source: World Bank (2017)

Major recipients of remittances, 2016

Source: World bank (2017)

Absolute Relative

Impact of emigration: main transmission channels

• ‘

• ‘Agemts of development’

• Knowledge transfer

• Transnational citizenship

• Mobility of low-skilled labour

• Export of excess labour supply

• HH-income / investments

• Collective remittances

• Social / political Remittances

• Loss of human capital

• Mobility of highly skilled

• Acquisition of new skills

• De-qualification

Brain drain / gain /

wasteRemittances

DiasporaReturn / circular

migration

Impact of emigration on development ambiguous

(short vs. long run)

Income

Migrant income

(+/+)

HH income

(-/+)

Income diversification

(0/+)

Growth

Innovation

(?/+)

Savings

(-/+)

Consumption multiplier

(0/+)

Investment

(-/+)

‘Dutch disease’

(0/-)

Structural change

(0/+)

Inequality

Intra-HH

(-/+)

Intra-community

(-/+)

National

(0/+)

Labour market

HH Labour supply

(-/0)

Un-employment

(+/+)

Skilled LS

(-/+)

LM structure

(?/+)

Wage externalities

(?/+)

Other economic

Inflation

(0/+)

Trade

(+/+)

Foreign exchange

(0/+)

Tax revenues

(-/0)

Dependency (micro/macro)

(-/-)

Non-economic

Demographic

(-/0)

Education

(migrant/public)

(+/+)

Health

(migrant/public)

(+/?)

Governance

(?/?)

Values, culture

(?/?)

Social structure

(?/?)

Globalisation intensity (“economic, political, social

openness”) by level of development, 1980-2015

Source: KOF (2017)

Priorities and measures to attract and retain talent in three

emerging economies

Brazil India Malaysia

Priority

Domestic talent x x

Foreign talent x x

Diaspora x x

Measures

Financial incentives for domestic and foreign talent x x

Educational/research opportunities for domestic talent x x

Diaspora engagement x x

Bilateral labour agreements x x

Right of free circulation x x

Mutual recognition of degrees/ credentials x x

Source: Cerna/Czaika (2018)