fondation pour les études et recherches sur le développement international LA FERDI EST UNE FONDATION RECONNUE D’UTILITÉ PUBLIQUE. ELLE MET EN ŒUVRE AVEC L’IDDRI L’INITIATIVE POUR LE DÉVELOPPEMENT ET LA GOUVERNANCE MONDIALE (IDGM). ELLE COORDONNE LE LABEX IDGM+ QUI L’ASSOCIE AU CERDI ET À L’IDDRI. CETTE PUBLICATION A BÉNÉFICIÉ D’UNE AIDE DE L’ÉTAT FRANCAIS GÉRÉE PAR L’ANR AU TITRE DU PROGRAMME «INVESTISSEMENTS D’AVENIR» PORTANT LA RÉFÉRENCE «ANR-10-LABX-14-01». Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography Thu Hien Dao | Frédéric Docquier Mathilde Maurel | Pierre Schaus Thu Hien Dao, IRES, Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium - Department of Economics, University of Bielefeld, Germany. [email protected] Frédéric Docquier, IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium -FNRS, National Fund for Scientic Research, Belgium - FERDI, France. [email protected] Mathilde Maurel, CES, Centre d’economie de la Sorbonne, Universite de Paris 1, France - FERDI, France. [email protected] Pierre Schaus, Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Universite catholique de Louvain, Belgium. [email protected] Abstract This paper sheds light on the global migration patterns of the past 40 years, and produces migration projections for the 21st century, for two skill groups, and for all relevant pairs of countries. To do this, we build a simple model of the world economy, and we parameterize it to match the economic and socio-demographic characteristics of the world in the year 2010. … /… Keywords: international migration, migration prospects, world economy, inequality. JEL codes: F22, F24, J11, J61, O15. Aknowledgment We thank Christiane Clemens, Giuseppe de Arcangelis, Timothy Hatton, Vincent Vanderberghe, and Gerald Willmann for their helpful comments and suggestions. This paper was presented at the conference on “Demographic Challenges in Africa” jointly organized by the French Agency for Development and the University of Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne in February 2017, at the 8th International Conference on “Economics of Global Interactions: New Perspectives on Trade, Factor Mobility and Development” at the University of Bari Aldo Moro in September 2017, and at the Workshop on “The drivers and impacts of migration and labour mobility in origins and destinations: Building the evidence base for policies that promote safe, orderly and regular people’s and labour mobility for poverty reduction and sustainable development” at FAO Headquarters in Rome in December 2017. The authors are grateful to the participants for valuable comments. The first author acknowledge financial support by the European Commission in the framework of the European Doctorate in Economics Erasmus Mundus (EDEEM). D e v e l o p m e n t P o l i c i e s W o r k i n g P a p e r 223 March 2018
Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography
Aug 04, 2023
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