Global Markets Review February 2020 Oreana Private Wealth A division of Oreana Financial Services
Global Markets Review
February 2020
Oreana Private Wealth
A division of Oreana Financial Services
Economic Commentary – USA
Commentary
•The Fed left its policy rate unchanged in
January. The committee’s statement
promised to continue to inject liquidity
through open market purchases. The Market
has priced two rate cuts in 2020.
•GDP grew an annualized 2.1% in Q4. This
beat market expectations. Inflation for 2019
was just 1.6%, below the Fed’s 2 % target.
•Employment data remain strong. The
unemployment rate fell to a record low level.
Despite solid jobs growth through 2019,
wages growth remains tepid.
•Geopolitical risk remains elevated. A Phase 1
trade deal was signed between China and the
US. But difficult negotiations remain for any
Phase 2 deal. In early January, a US and Iran
conflict escalated briefly but avoided a hot
conflict. In late January and early February,
the US responded to the coronavirus
epidemic by banning flights from China –
introducing some uncertainty around the US-
China relationship.
Our near-term outlook
•We expect US GDP growth to move below
potential over the next 24 months.
•Labour market growth will continue to slow
as economic growth edges below potential.
•The Fed will remain on hold over H1 2020.
Rate cuts may be necessary in H2 2020.
Fig 1: GDP growth is set to slow in 2020
Source: Bloomberg LP, Oreana Financial Services
Note: Green indicates the latest data have improved over the time frame.
Red indicates the latest data have weakened over the time frame.
Fig 2: The Fed has indicated it will hold
rates steady for some time
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Labour Market
Unemployment rate (%) 3.5 3.6 3.7 4
Employed persons (%yoy) 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.4
Households
Consumer Confidence 131.6 126.1 135.8 121.7
Retail sales (%yoy) 5.8 3.1 3.5 2.6
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Housing
Case-Shiller House Prices
(%yoy)2.6 2.2 2.0 3.42
Existing Home Sales
(%yoy)10.8 4.2 0.6 -8.7
Business
NFIB Small Business
Optimism102.7 102.4 104.7 101.2
Manufacturing PMI47.8 48.5 51.3 55.5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18
GDP (yoy%, lhs)
GS Current Activity Indicator (rhs)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18
Headline CPI inflation (%yoy, lhs)US Fed Policy rate (%, rhs)
Economic Commentary – Australia
Commentary
•The unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in
December. Jobs growth was concentrated in
part-time employment. Jobs growth has
been trending lower during 2019.
• Q4 core CPI inflation remained at 1.6%.
Inflation has remained below RBA’s 2-3%
target for several years. The market has
pushed pricing for further rate cuts to end-
2020 as headline inflation has trended higher.
•Housing finance, house prices and retail
sales improved during Q4 2019. The RBA has
indicated that momentum may be picking up
in response to rate cuts through 2019.
• Bushfires remain a considerable risk to the
economic outlook, albeit with limited impact
on December data. Australia is also
economically exposed to the coronavirus
through its economic links to China.
Our near-term outlook
•We expect GDP growth to remain below
potential over the next 24 months. The
bushfires may be a near-term drag on
growth.
•The labour market has turned weaker. We
expect the unemployment rate to increase in
the medium-term.
•We expect the RBA will cut rates again in
2020. Ultimately we think quantitative easing
is likely within the next 24 months.
Fig 1: GDP growth could be at a turning
point but risks remain
Source: Bloomberg LP, Oreana Financial Services
Note: Green indicates the latest data have improved over the time frame.
Red indicates the latest data have weakened over the time frame.
Fig 2: The RBA has cut rates three times
last year but further cuts are likely
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Labour Market
Unemployment rate (%) 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.1
Employed persons (%yoy) 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.1
Households
Westpac Consumer
Confidence93.4 92.8 96.5 99.6
Retail sales (%yoy) 3.2 2.3 2.4 2.9
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Housing
RP-Rismark home prices
(%yoy)5.3 -2.5 -7.4 NA
Building approvals (%yoy) 2.7 -22.2 -28.3 -27.2
Business
NAB Business Confidence -1.9 1.9 3.6 3.7
AIG Performance of
Manufacturing Index45.4 51.6 51.3 52.5
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18
GDP (yoy%, lhs)
GS Current Activity Indicator (rhs)
0
2
4
6
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18
Headline CPI inflation (%yoy, lhs)
RBA Policy rate (%, rhs)
Economic Commentary – Europe
Commentary
•The UK passed Brexit at the end of January.
Uncertainty nonetheless remains elevated as
the nature of Brexit will not be clear until
later in 2020.The EU and the UK will have 11
months to negotiate a new trade deal.
•The ECB kept its policy rate unchanged.
Committee members believe that the euro
zone’s manufacturing sector has bottomed
out from recent slowdown. Overall, ECB is
cautiously optimistic on Europe’s inflation.
•The ZEW survey of economic growth
improved dramatically in end-2019. But
industrial production and manufacturing
remains extremely weak. German growth
remains the driver of EU outcomes and that
could be at risk from German economic
exposure to China.
Our near-term outlook
•We expect EU GDP growth to enter
recession within the next 24 months.
•A manufacturing recession is likely to impact
jobs growth, broadening the recession
through to the household sector.
•The ECB will not cut rates further. But further
quantitative easing is likely.
•Fiscal stimulus could prove to be supportive,
particularly in Germany. At best, we expect it
could reduce the depth and length of a
recession.
Fig 1: GDP growth has rolled over and is
in industrial recession
Source: Bloomberg LP, Oreana Financial Services
Note: Green indicates the latest data have improved over the time frame.
Red indicates the latest data have weakened over the time frame.
Fig 2: The ECB has limited capacity to cut
rates further
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Labour Market
Unemployment rate (%) 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.5
Employed persons (%yoy) 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.1
Households
Consumer Confidence -7.0 -7.5 -5.9 -7.6
Retail sales (%yoy) 2.7 2.6 3.7 3.0
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Housing
House prices (%yoy) 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.6
Construction growth (%yoy) 3.8 0.9 2.0 1.4
Business
ZEW survey of economic
growth25.6 -23.5 -20.3 -20.9
Manufacturing PMI 46.4 46.2 46.6 50.6
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18
GDP (yoy%, lhs)
GS Current Activity Indicator (rhs)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18
Headline CPI inflation (%yoy, lhs)
ECB Deposit rate (%, rhs)
Economic Commentary – Japan
Commentary
•Japan’s economy has registered some
improvement. But the coronavirus outbreak
could impact to Japan’s economy by hurting
its inbound tourism.
•The manufacturing sector remains in
contraction. The trade dispute and slowing
Chinese growth has weighted on Japan’s
growth and remains a near-term risk.
•But consumer confidence and retail sales
improved through the end of 2019.
•Inflation has improved to be around its
average level from the past four years.
Our near-term outlook
•We expect Japanese GDP growth to slow
below potential with risk of recession after
taxes were implemented in October as
planned.
•Downside risks include trade disputes,
slowing global growth.
•We expect inflation will come under some
downside pressure over the next 12 months.
• The BoJ may introduce further easing
measures over the coming 12 months to
support slowing growth.
•The 2020 Olympics could benefit growth
through 2020.
Fig 1: GDP growth masks a weak
economy
Source: Bloomberg LP, Oreana Financial Services
Note: Green indicates the latest data have improved over the time frame.
Red indicates the latest data have weakened over the time frame.
Fig 2: The BoJ has managed to support
moderately higher inflation
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Labour Market
Unemployment rate (%) 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.5
Employed persons (%yoy) 1.8 0.9 1.1 1.0
Households
Consumer Confidence 39.3 36.2 37.5 41.7
Retail sales (%yoy) -2.6 -7.0 -2.0 0.6
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Housing
Nationwide land prices
(%yoy)1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7
Housing starts (%yoy) -7.9 -7.4 -4.1 1.1
Business
Tankan manufacturing
survey0.0 5.0 7.0 19.0
Manufacturing PMI 48.8 48.4 49.4 50.3
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18GDP (yoy%, lhs)
GS Current Activity Indicator (rhs)
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18Headline CPI inflation (%yoy, lhs)
Bank of Japan Policy rate (%, rhs)
Economic Commentary – China
Commentary
•China’s economic outlook has been
impacted by the coronavirus outbreak that
originated in Wuhan. Chinese policymakers’
responses have significantly disrupted
China’s economy and society through an
extended Chinese New Year holiday.
•China’s government introduced monetary
and fiscal stimulus to support the economy
against the impact of the coronavirus. China’s
economy had been stabilizing in Q4 against
cyclical headwinds but the near-term outlook
now is increasingly uncertain.
• China’s credit defaults were high relative to
history in 2019. Credit risks remain a key
uncertainty for the near- and medium-term
economic outlook in China
Our near-term outlook
•We expect China GDP growth to slow to
below 6% over the next 24 months. Further
monetary and fiscal policy is likely to counter
the worst cyclical headwinds.
•Inflation has been boosted by pork prices
but underlying inflation remains subdued,
leaving further policy easing possible.
•The major risks to China’s economic outlook
remains a messy credit deleveraging and
ongoing trade dispute with the US. The
coronavirus could also have a significant
impact on growth.
Fig 1: Slowing GDP growth is set to
continue through 2020
Source: Bloomberg LP, Oreana Financial Services
Note: Green indicates the latest data have improved over the time frame.
Red indicates the latest data have weakened over the time frame.
Fig 2: CPI has trended higher, partly
reflecting food prices
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Labour Market
Unemployment rate (%) 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.8
Households
Consumer Confidence 124.6 124.3 124.4 123.7
Retail sales (%yoy) 8.0 7.2 7.6 8.2
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Housing
New Home Price (%MoM) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.61
Business
Value Added of Industry YoY 102.7 102.4 104.7 101.2
Caixin China Manufacturing
PMI SA 51.1 51.7 49.9 48.3
4
6
8
10
12
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18GDP (yoy%, lhs)
GS Current Activity Indicator (rhs)
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18Headline CPI inflation (%yoy, lhs)
7-day reverse repo rate
Economic Commentary – Hong Kong
Commentary
•Hong Kong is in a deep recession. The
recession is likely to be protracted as Hong
Kong suffers from ongoing political uncertainty
and the impact of the coronavirus.
•Government spending has been the only
positive contributor to GDP growth. Retail
sales, tourism, home sales and confidence are
all week and point to weak or negative
economic growth.
•The hospitality and retail sector remain at risk.
These are key drivers of economic growth. The
unemployment rate has started to move higher
as demand remains weak.
Our near-term outlook
•We expect HK GDP growth to experience a
deep, protracted recession.
•US interest rates are too high for the HK
economy. This is likely to result in slower
inflation, further depressing growth in the
near-term.
•Fiscal support from the HK government and
stimulative policy coming out of China could
help the economy, but political tensions remain
a headwind.
•The HK housing market will be a key
economic risk for the next 24 months. We do
not expect a house-price crash as a most-likely
outcome, but risks are skewed to the
downside.
Fig 1: The HK economy is in a deep, and
likely protracted, recession
Source: Bloomberg LP, Oreana Financial Services
Note: Green indicates the latest data have improved over the time frame.
Red indicates the latest data have weakened over the time frame.
Fig 2: Inflation has peaked and is slowing
in the wake of the recession
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Labour Market
Unemployment rate (%) 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0
Households
Consumer Confidence 122.9 122.3 122.6 113.3
Retail sales (%yoy) 9.0 10.1 9.4 11.0
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Housing
Beijing house prices (%yoy) 3.2% 6.0% 8.3% 8.6%
Business
NFIB Small Business
Optimism56.0 59.1 55.3 54.7
Manufacturing PMI51.5 51.5 51.6 51.7
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Labour Market
Unemployment rate (%)3.3 3.1 2.9 2.8
Real Wage growth (%yoy) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 1.0
Households
Private Consumer
Expenditure-3.4 -3.4 1.3 2.7
Retail sales (%yoy)-23.6 -24.4 -11.5 7.0
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Housing
HK Private Domestic Prices
(%yoy)5.3 -2.3 -0.7 0.7
Home Sales (units) 3184 4001 4805 4543
Business
Business Tendency
Survery -25.0 -8.0 -1.0 2.0
Markit PMI 42.1 39.3 43.8 48.2
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18
GDP (yoy%, lhs)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18
Headline CPI inflation (%yoy, lhs)
US Fed Funds rate
Economic Commentary – Singapore
Commentary
• Singapore is a small open economy with
considerable trade and economic links with
China. The impact of the coronavirus epidemic
is uncertain but potentially significant.
• The Q4 advanced estimate for GDP was
reported at 0.8%. GDP growth has slowed
significantly in 2019, dragged by
manufacturing sector and Singapore’s
exposure to global growth. The services sectors
helped support growth, increasing through
2019.
•The unemployment rate increased to 2.3% in
2019. This is the highest rate over the past
decade since the global financial crisis.
•Retail sales have been contracting in year-on-
year terms for nine consecutive months. The
latest indication is that retail sales have
declined by 4% over 2019.
Our near-term outlook
•We expect Singapore GDP growth to remain
below potential for next 24 months.
•Singapore’s economy remains exposed to a
global trade slowdown despite the US and
China Phase One trade deal.
•The recent coronavirus could also have a
significant impact on Singapore’s economy as
commodity prices drop, impacting export
values.
Fig 1: Growth has tumbled in 2019
Source: Bloomberg LP, Oreana Financial Services
Note: Green indicates the latest data have improved over the time frame.
Red indicates the latest data have weakened over the time frame.
Fig 2: Inflation has trended higher in 2019
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Labour Market
Unemployment rate (%) 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0
Households
Consumer Confidence 122.9 122.3 122.6 113.3
Retail sales (%yoy) 9.0 10.1 9.4 11.0
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Housing
Beijing house prices (%yoy) 3.2% 6.0% 8.3% 8.6%
Business
NFIB Small Business
Optimism56.0 59.1 55.3 54.7
Manufacturing PMI51.5 51.5 51.6 51.7
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Labour Market
Unemployment rate (%)2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
Real Wage growth (%yoy) 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.2
Households
Consumer Confidence 4.8 4.8 3.2 2.2
Retail sales (%yoy)-4.0 -4.4 -1.5 7.6
Key Economic Statistics Latest Δ3m Δ6m Δ12m
Housing
House Prices CPI 88.4 86.8 87.1 87.889
Business
Business Manufacturing
Expectations-5.0 -5.0 -11.0 -14.0
Manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.6 49.8 50.7
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18
GDP (yoy%, lhs) GS Current Activity Indicator (rhs)
0
1
2
3
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18Headline CPI inflation (%yoy, lhs)
Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (%, rhs)
Market Commentary - Equities
Fig 1: Australia equity has the best start in decades whilst
China is hit by coronavirus
Equities
•Global equities were initially knocked lower by the
outbreak of coronavirus in China, erasing early gains
in January.
•China and HK equities were impacted the most from
the coronavirus and dropped 2.3% and 6.7%
respectively.
•The S&P 500 ended the month slightly lower.
Positive earning surprises from financial and
technology sectors and the trade deal agreement
initially supported equities. But prices turned lower
after the coronavirus risk emerged.
•Australian equities were supported by better than
expected economic data from consumer and housing
sectors.
•Our near-term outlook
•We think equity markets look overvalued from a
fundamental perspective.
•Global growth has slowed and earnings growth is
low in absolute terms in the US. There is a risk of an
earnings recession through 2019.
•Australian equities have been supported primarily by
interest rate cuts. Earnings growth has not moved
substantially higher and the private sector outlook
suggests downward revisions are more likely.
Source: Bloomberg LP, Oreana Financial Services
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
S&P/ASX200
S&P500 Nikkei225
HangSeng
CSI300 FTSE100 DAX 30 MSCI EM MSCIWorld
Australia US Japan HongKong
China UK Germany EM World
1 month Year to date 12 months
Market Commentary – Fixed Income
Fig 1: Global yields fell in January as the coronavirus resulted
in a strong risk-off sentimentFixed income
•Global yields fell in January. Uncertainty
surrounding the potential impact from the
coronavirus risk resulted in elevated risk aversion.
US and Australian 10-year yields fell 0.4% over
the month.
•Shorter dated yields fell less than longer dated
yields and yield curves flattened through January.
•High yield credit spread widened aggressively
following the coronavirus outbreak. The wider
spreads partly reflected the impact of sharply
lower oil prices on high yield debt issuers in the
US.
•Yields are now more than a full percentage point
lower compared to the start of 2019. Yields
remain near historic lows and have largely
reversed the sell-off higher in yields from end-
2019.
Our near-term outlook
•US interest rate markets are pricing 1 rate cut
over 2020. We expect the Fed could be forced to
cut rates to close to zero and implement QE over
the next 24 months.
•Australian interest rate markets are pricing more
near-term rate cuts. We currently expect the RBA
will be forced to use QE when a recession hits
over the coming 12-15 months.Source: Bloomberg LP, Oreana Financial Services
0.0% 0.0%
-0.3%-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.8%
-1.1% -1.1%
-0.8%
-1.1%
-1.3%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Fed Funds rate US 2 year US 10 year RBA cash AUD 3 year AUD 10 year
United States Australia
1 month Year to date 12 months
Market Commentary - FX
Fig 1: The AUD performance weakened against global FX amid risk
off sentiment
Currencies
•The AUD weakened against most developed
country currencies in the past month. Global risk
sentiment deteriorated from Iran-US geopolitical
tension and coronavirus outbreak.
•AUD/USD closed at 0.6692 in January.
•Weak fundamentals, low rates, and weak
commodity prices (ex-iron ore) remain a
headwind for the AUD in the medium term.
•Market pricing for RBA rate cuts has left
downwards pressure on the AUD.
Our near-term outlook
•AUD forwards are priced for mild appreciation
versus the USD over the next 15-18 months. This
reflects market expectations for higher interest
rates in the US compared with Australia over that
period.
•We expect ongoing concerns around the
economic outlook to provide further support to
the USD and result in further weakness in the
AUD over this period.
Source: Bloomberg LP, Oreana Financial Services
-4.7%-4.2%
-3.6%
-4.9%-4.7%-4.2%
-3.6%
-4.9%
-8.0%-8.7%
-5.1%
-8.4%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
AUD/USD AUD/GBP AUD/EUR AUD/YEN
US dollar British Pound Euro Japanese Yen
1 month Year to date 12 months
Market Commentary - FX
Fig 1: USD strengthened against CNH and AUD in JanuaryCurrencies
•The USD strengthened against most currencies
in December. DXY index climbed 1.04% in the
month amid risk-off sentiment in January.
•The USD was mixed versus most developed
market currencies over the past 12 months. It
performed well towards GBP and EUR and flat
against Yen.
•The USD/CNH touched 5-month-low at 6.8672
right after the Phase One trade deal was signed.
It rallied to 6.9984 sharply following the outbreak
of coronavirus.
Our near-term outlook
•We expect slowing global growth and rising
volatility to leave the USD relatively strong over
the next 12 months. With many developed
economies suffering negative rates and dovish
central banks, the USD remains a high yielding
currency.
•The outlook is less certain versus JPY. We have a
low conviction view that the JPY will strengthen
over the next 24 months broadly in line with
forward market pricing.
Source: Bloomberg LP, Oreana Financial Services
4.9%
0.4%
1.1%
-0.2%
1.0%
8.8%
-0.7%
3.2%
-0.5%
1.2%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
USD/AUD USD/GBP USD/EUR USD/JPY USD TWI
AUD dollar British Pound Euro Japanese Yen USD tradeweighted index
1 month Year to date 12 months
Market Commentary – Alternatives
Fig 1: Alternatives returns
Alternatives
•The asset class alternatives is a spectrum of return drivers and a very broad
asset class.
•Alternative strategies have offered lower correlation to global equities year
to date.
•YTD, equity market neutral has suffered as equites have rallied. Merger
arbitrage has also faced a challenging six months.
Outlook
•We expect alternatives will prove to be an important asset class over the
near-term. A diversified range of alternative return drivers could offer some
protection against equity beta in the event of a recession-driven market
correction.
Source: Bloomberg LP, Oreana Financial Services
*Data to November only.
Equity market
Index returns
% Return % Return % Return % Return
1 month Year to date 12 months 2019
MSCI World -0.7% -0.7% 15.5% 25.2%
FOF composite* 0.6% 0.6% 9.0% 8.3%
Equity hedge -0.3% -0.3% 6.2% 10.7%
Global Macro 0.8% 0.8% 7.8% 4.8%
Equity market neutral -1.5% -1.5% -3.5% -1.9%
Event Driven 0.5% 0.5% 7.8% 10.0%
Distressed Debt* 1.1% 1.1% 4.1% 2.9%
Merger Arbitrage 0.2% 0.2% -0.6% 0.2%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
1990
Recession
Asia Crisis 2001
Recession
2007
Recession
MSCI World Composite Alternatives
Distressed Debt Equity hedge
Global macro Equity market neutral
Event Driven Merger Arbitrage
Fig 2: Alternative returns through market downturns
Latest market pricing tables
Equity market Close at % Return % Return % Return
Index returns January-20 1 month Year to date 12 months
Australia S&P/ASX 200 7017 5.0% 24.3% 19.7%
US S&P500 3226 -0.2% 28.7% 19.3%
Japan Nikkei 225 23205 -1.9% 15.9% 11.7%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26313 -6.7% 1.8% -5.8%
China CSI300 4004 -2.3% 33.0% 25.1%
UK FTSE100 7286 -3.4% 8.3% 4.6%
Germany DAX 30 12982 -2.0% 22.9% 16.2%
Source: Bloomberg LP, Oreana Financial Services
Note: Green indicates the latest market price is higher over the time
frame. Red indicates the latest market price is lower over the time frame.
FX market Close at % Return % Return % Return
Spot price January-20 1 month Year to date 12 months
US dollar AUD/USD 0.67 -4.7% -5.1% -8.0%
British Pound AUD/GBP 0.51 -4.2% -8.3% -8.7%
Euro AUD/EUR 0.60 -3.6% -1.9% -5.1%
Japanese Yen AUD/YEN 72.51 -4.9% -6.2% -8.4%
Fixed income market Close at Ppt change Ppt change Ppt change
January-20 1 month Year to date 12 months
Fed Funds rate 1.75% 0.0% -0.8% -0.8%
US 2 year 1.31% -0.3% -1.2% -1.1%
US 10 year 1.51% -0.4% -1.2% -1.1%
RBA cash 0.75% 0.0% -0.8% -0.8%
AUD 3 year 0.62% -0.3% -1.2% -1.1%
AUD 10 year 0.95% -0.4% -1.4% -1.3%
Bloomberg Global Agg Corporate Spread 103 5 -52 -33
Bloomberg Global corporate HY spread 393 47 -138 -44
Disclaimer
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