GLOBAL MARKETING TRENDS: HIGHTLIGHTS OF A RECENT IDF …€¦ · 2015-2025: Drivers: ... IDF Canada Dairy Outlook Seminar ... Final Report 2016 ‐December. Title: Microsoft PowerPoint

GLOBAL MARKETING TRENDS: HIGHTLIGHTS OF A RECENT IDF STUDY

DAIRY FARMERS OF CANADA

IDF Canada Dairy Outlook SeminarMay 16-18, 2017

IDF Global Marketing TrendsUnderstanding Changes in Dairy Consumption Around the WorldFinal Report 2016 ‐ December

PRESENTATION OUTLINE1. Canadian Past and Future Trends in Sales Volume2. International Past and Future Trends in Sales Volume

3. Anti-Dairy Movements 4. Conclusion

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION 2

CANADA | 2010-2025

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION

CANADIAN SALES VOLUME

• Age and generation effect• Increased competition from other beverages• Health concerns.

Milk

2010-2015:

2015-2025:

Barriers:

2010-2015:

2015-2025:

Drivers: • Image of pleasure• Demand for natural products• Population growth

Butter or Ghee

2010-2015:

2015-2025:

Drivers: • Image of pleasure• Demand for natural products• Population growth

• Image of pleasure• Health concerns• Demand for convenience

Cheese Cream

2010-2015:

2015-2025:

Drivers:

2010-2015:

2015-2025:

Drivers: • Health concerns• Number of new products launched• Demand for natural products

Yoghurt

+5 to +10%

+10% or more

2010-2015:

2015-2025:

Barriers: • Change in eating habits• Health concerns

Ice cream Anti-milk

YES

YES YES

Increasingly aggressive:

Imp. on other dairy products:

Imp. on milk consumption:

Anti-fat

Increasingly aggressive:

Imp. on dairy products consumption:

Anti-cow

Volume

Volume

Volume

Volume

Volume

Volume

Volume

Volume

Volume

Volume

Volume

Volume

+10% or more

-1 to -5%

+5 to +10% +5 to +10%

-5 to -10%

-5 to -10% +10% or more

+1 to +5% +10% or more

-10% or more

YES

• Defense of animal welfare• Milk causes health issues / cancer• Promotion of new dairy and

processed-food free dietsNO

YES

Name:

Organization:

Richard Sanchez

Agropur Cooperative

Canada

Position: Analysis and milk supply manager

3

FLUID MILK | 2015

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION Source: IDF (2016). World Dairy Situation.

ANNUAL CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA IN LITRES

4

2.7

19.325.2

29.7 31.4 34.9 37.047.0 47.0 48.5 50.9 53.1 54.0 55.9

70.6 71.9

83.1 85.0 87.6 90.496.2

105.6107.8110.3113.2

126.6129.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

More than 10% increase

5% to 10% increase

1% to 5% increase

Stable

1% to 5% decline

5% to 10% decline

More than 10% decline

FLUID MILK | PAST (2010-2015)

Legend


INTERNATIONAL SALES VOLUME

JAPAN

AUSTRALIA

SOUTH AFRICA

ISRAEL

FRANCE

CHILE

FINLANDNORWAY

IRELAND

ZIMBABWE

DENMARK

USA

GERMANY

NETHERLANDS

UK

INDIA

SWEDEN

ICELAND

LITHUANIA

ARGENTINA

CHINA

CANADA

MEXICO

BELGIUM

CYPRUS

SPAIN

NEW ZEALAND

5

Numbers of respondents: 27

JAPAN

AUSTRALIA

SOUTH AFRICA

ISRAEL

FRANCE

CHILE

FINLANDNORWAY

IRELAND

ZIMBABWE

DENMARK

USA

GERMANY

NETHERLANDS

UK

INDIA

SWEDEN

ICELAND

LITHUANIA

ARGENTINA

CHINA

CANADA

MEXICO

BELGIUM

CYPRUS

SPAIN

NEW ZEALAND


5% to 10% increase

1% to 5% increase

Stable

1% to 5% decline

5% to 10% decline


FLUID MILK | FUTURE (2015-2025)



6

Legend



5% to 10% increase

1% to 5% increase

Stable

1% to 5% decline

5% to 10% decline


LIQUID CREAM | PAST (2010-2015)



JAPAN

AUSTRALIA

SOUTH AFRICA

ISRAEL

FRANCE

CHILE

FINLANDNORWAY

ZIMBABWE

DENMARK

USAGERMANY

NETHERLANDS

UK

SWEDEN

ICELAND

LITHUANIA

ARGENTINA

CHINA

CANADA

MEXICO

BELGIUM

SPAIN

NEW ZEALAND

7

Legend


5% to 10% decline


5% to 10% increase

1% to 5% increase

Stable

1% to 5% decline


LIQUID CREAM | FUTURE (2015-2025)



JAPAN

AUSTRALIA

ISRAEL

FRANCE

CHILE

FINLAND

ZIMBABWE

GERMANY

NETHERLANDS

SWEDEN

LITHUANIA

ARGENTINA

CHINA

SPAIN

NORWAY

SOUTH AFRICA

DENMARK

USA

UK

ICELAND

CANADA

MEXICO

BELGIUM

NEW ZEALAND

Legend

8


BUTTER | 2015

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION Source: IDF (2016). World Dairy Situation.

ANNUAL CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA IN KILOGRAMS

0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.91.4 1.4

1.92.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3

3.8 3.9

4.9 4.9

5.8

8.0

0123456789

9Zimbabwe: Not available


5% to 10% increase

1% to 5% increase

Stable

1% to 5% decline

5% to 10% decline


BUTTER AND GHEE | PAST (2010-2015)



JAPAN

AUSTRALIA

SOUTH AFRICA

ISRAEL

FRANCE

CHILE

FINLAND

NORWAY

IRELAND

ZIMBABWE

DENMARK

USA

GERMANY

NETHERLANDS

UK

INDIA

SWEDEN

ICELAND

LITHUANIA

ARGENTINA

CHINA

CANADA

MEXICO

BELGIUM

SPAIN

NEW ZEALAND

Legend

10


JAPAN

AUSTRALIA

SOUTH AFRICA

ISRAEL

FRANCE

CHILE

FINLAND

NORWAY

IRELAND

ZIMBABWE

DENMARK

USA

GERMANY

NETHERLANDS

UK

INDIA

SWEDEN

ICELAND

LITHUANIA

ARGENTINA

CHINA

CANADA

MEXICO

BELGIUM

SPAIN

NEW ZEALAND

CYPRUS


5% to 10% increase

1% to 5% increase

Stable

1% to 5% decline

5% to 10% decline


BUTTER AND GHEE | FUTURE (2015-2025)



Legend

11


CHEESE | 2015


ANNUAL CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA IN KILOGRAMS

0.1 0.62.0 2.2

3.8

8.8 8.9 9.112.1 12.5 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.9 16.0 16.9

18.2 18.319.5 20.7

24.2 24.626.1 26.2 26.7 26.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Source: IDF (2016). World Dairy Situation.[1] All kinds of cheeseIndia: Not available 12


5% to 10% increase

1% to 5% increase

Stable

1% to 5% decline

5% to 10% decline


CHEESE | PAST (2010-2015)



JAPAN

AUSTRALIA

SOUTH AFRICA

ISRAEL

FRANCE

CHILE

FINLAND

NORWAY

IRELAND

ZIMBABWE

DENMARK

USA

GERMANY

NETHERLANDS

UK

SWEDEN

ICELAND

LITHUANIA

ARGENTINA

CHINA

CANADA

MEXICO

BELGIUM

CYPRUSSPAIN

NEW ZEALAND

Legend

13



5% to 10% increase

1% to 5% increase

Stable

1% to 5% decline

5% to 10% decline

More than 10% decline JAPAN

AUSTRALIA

SOUTH AFRICA

ISRAEL

FRANCE

CHILE

FINLAND

NORWAY

IRELAND

ZIMBABWE

DENMARK

USA

GERMANY

NETHERLANDS

UK

SWEDEN

ICELAND

LITHUANIA

ARGENTINA

CHINA

CANADA

MEXICO

BELGIUM

CYPRUSSPAIN

NEW ZEALAND

CHEESE | FUTURE (2015-2025)



Legend


14


5% to 10% increase

1% to 5% increase

Stable

1% to 5% decline

5% to 10% decline


YOGURT | PAST (2010-2015)



JAPAN

AUSTRALIA

SOUTH AFRICA

ISRAEL

FRANCE

CHILE

FINLANDNORWAY

ZIMBABWE

DENMARK

USA

GERMANY

NETHERLANDS

UK

INDIA

SWEDEN

ICELAND

LITHUANIA

ARGENTINA

CHINA

CANADA

MEXICO

BELGIUM

SPAIN

NEW ZEALAND

Legend


15


5% to 10% increase

1% to 5% increase

Stable

1% to 5% decline

5% to 10% decline


YOGURT | FUTURE (2015-2025)



JAPAN

AUSTRALIA

SOUTH AFRICA

ISRAEL

FRANCE

CHILE

FINLANDNORWAY

ZIMBABWE

USA

INDIA

SWEDEN

ICELAND

ARGENTINA

CHINA

CANADA

MEXICO

SPAIN

JAPAN

SOUTH AFRICA

DENMARK

GERMANY

NETHERLANDS

UK

INDIA

LITHUANIA

CHINA

BELGIUM

NEW ZEALAND

Legend


16


5% to 10% increase

1% to 5% increase

Stable

1% to 5% decline

5% to 10% decline


ICE CREAM | PAST (2010-2015)



JAPAN

AUSTRALIA

FINLAND

NORWAY

ZIMBABWE

USA

UK

INDIA

SWEDEN

LITHUANIA

CHINA

CANADA

BELGIUM

NEW ZEALAND

Legend


17


5% to 10% increase

1% to 5% increase

Stable

1% to 5% decline

5% to 10% decline


ICE CREAM | FUTURE (2015-2025)



FINLAND

JAPAN

AUSTRALIAZIMBABWE

UK

LITHUANIA

CANADA

NEW ZEALAND

NORWAY

USA

INDIA

SWEDEN

CHINA

CANADA

BELGIUM

Legend


18

LegendYes

ANTI-MILK DEBATES | 2015


JAPAN

IRELAND

AUSTRALIA

SOUTH AFRICA

CHILE

INDIA

ZIMBABWE

ISRAEL

FRANCE

FINLANDNORWAY DENMARK

USA

GERMANY

NETHERLANDS

UK

SWEDEN

ICELAND

LITHUANIA

ARGENTINA

CHINA

CANADA

MEXICO

BELGIUM

CYPRUS

SPAIN

NEW ZEALAND

No

More and more hostile


19

LegendYes

ANTI-FAT DEBATES | 2015


No

More and more hostile

JAPAN

IRELAND

AUSTRALIA

SOUTH AFRICA

CHILE

ZIMBABWE

ISRAELFRANCE

FINLAND

NORWAY

DENMARK

USA

GERMANY

NETHERLANDS

UK

SWEDEN

ICELAND

LITHUANIA

ARGENTINA

INDIA

CHINA

CANADA

MEXICOCYPRUS

BELGIUM

SPAIN

NEW ZEALAND


20

LegendYes

ANTI-COW BREEDING DEBATES | 2015


No

IRELAND

CHILE

ZIMBABWE

USA

ICELAND

LITHUANIA

ARGENTINA

INDIA

CHINA

MEXICO

CYPRUS

BELGIUM

JAPAN

SOUTH AFRICA

ISRAEL

FRANCE

NORWAY

DENMARK

GERMANY

NETHERLANDS

UK

SWEDEN

CANADA

SPAIN

NEW ZEALAND

Numbers of respondents : 25

21

Some worrying signals:

• Anti-milk arguments continue to spread through mass media, influencing public opinion.

• Movements that criticize cattle breeding.

• Nutritional, ethical, societal, and environmental issues related to dairy products.

A positive future:

• Anticipated future trends are growing for most dairy products.

• Forecasts are improving for fluid milk and ice cream.

• Even countries witnessing a slight market downturn or stability, should see their performance on the dairy market improve.

CONCLUSION

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FEDERATION 22

THANK YOU

DAIRY FARMERS OF CANADA

IDF Canada Dairy Outlook SeminarMay 16-18, 2017

IDF Global Marketing TrendsUnderstanding Changes in Dairy Consumption Around the WorldFinal Report 2016 ‐ December

GLOBAL MARKETING TRENDS: HIGHTLIGHTS OF A RECENT IDF …€¦ · 2015-2025: Drivers: ... IDF Canada Dairy Outlook Seminar ... Final Report 2016 ‐December. Title: Microsoft PowerPoint

Documents