Global Market Outlook - SolarPower Europe · Global Market Outlook For Solar Power / 2017 - 2021 ... CHEAPER THAN ONSHORE WIND 2 1. Solar Power Cost Trends ... JAPAN & …

Global Market OutlookFor Solar Power / 2017 - 2021

Michael Schmela

Executive Advisor, SolarPower Europe

Webinar, 13 June 2017

SOLAR’S COST CONTINUOUSLY IMRPOVING – OFTEN EVEN CHEAPER THAN ONSHORE WIND

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1. Solar Power Cost Trends

Utility-scale solar is today alreadycheaper than new

gas, coal and nuclear power plants

UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR NOW COST-COMPETITIVE WITH FOSSIL FUELS & NUCLEAR

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1. Solar Power Cost Trends

GLOBAL MARKET GROWS OVER 50% YOY TO >76.6 GW IN 2016 - WITH CHINA COVERING 45%

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2. Global Solar Market / Update 2000 – 2016

50% solar global market growth to 76.6 GW in 2016

ASIAN TOTAL PV SHARE >50% END OF 2016; CHINA, JAPAN & USA NOW TOP 3 PV MARKETS WITH LARGEST OPERATING SOLAR POWER GENERATION FLEET

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2. Global Solar Market / Update 2000 – 2016

MOST PROBABLE GLOBAL SCENARIO (MEDIUM) ASSUMES CONTINUOUS MARKET GROWTH UNTIL 2021

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2. Global Solar Market / Prospects 2017 - 2021

ALL SCENARIOS ARE MORE POSITIVE THAN IN LAST YEAR’S GMO. MOST LIKELY GROWTH SCENARIO ASSUMES NEARLY 425 GW NEW CAPACITY BY 2021

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2. Global Solar Market / Prospects 2017 - 2021

Nearly 1 TW total installed solar power possible by 2021

MORE COUNTRIES START TO ADD NOTABLE SOLAR VOLUME, BUT BULK GROWTH CARRIED BY FEW MARKETS

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2. Global Solar Market / Prospects 2017 - 2021

CPIA PROVIDES LARGE RANGE FOR CHINESE SOLAR MARKET. OPEN QUESTION IF 2016 WAS INDEED MAXIMUM FOR COMING YEARS

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3. Chinese Solar Market / Prospects 2017 - 2025

EUROPE CONTINUES ITS TRANSITION PHASE, DECREASING OVER 20% TO 6.7 GW IN 2016

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4. European Solar Market / Update 2000 – 2016

EUROPE EXPECTED TO START NEW GROWTH PHASE AS OF 2017, WITH WIDE SPREAD FOR DIFFERENT SCENARIOS DEPENDING ON POLICY DECISIONS

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4. European Solar Market / Prospects 2017 - 2021

IN LESS THAN 2 YEARS THE AVG. WINNING BIDS IN GERMAN SOLAR TENDERS DECREASED BY OVER 28%

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4. European Solar Market / Prospects 2017 - 2021

IN 2021, GERMANY WILL BE LARGEST EUROPEAN SOLAR MARKET FOLLOWED BY FRANCE AND TURKEY. SAME TOP 3 AS IN GMO 2016

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4. European Solar Market / Prospects 2017 - 2021

IF CE4A ADAPTED TO OUR 35% RES SHARE ASK, EUROPE WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN GHG EMISSIONS

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5. Solar In European Electricity System / 2020 - 2030

20% 24%

-35%-40%

-20%

-45%

27%

35%

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

%

Reference scenario European Commision Clean Energy For All proposal SolarPower Europe asks

PROJECTIONS IN EU-28 UNDER DIFFERENT SCENARIOS

RES PENETRATION LEVELS

GHG EMISSION REDUCTIONS

SolarPower Europe sees 3 key topics for solar to be able to support countries aiming for a transition to clean and low-cost power economies:

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Conclusions

Reliable governance framework to navigate the economy towards renewable energy with ambitious and binding targets for renewables

Electricity market design that enables profitable investments and operation of variable renewable energy sources, taking into account rules for storage, demand response and aggregation to provide new services

Modern renewable energy framework that enables new business models for solar and storage that put active consumers in the heart of the energy transition, allowing self-consumption without burden of prohibitive taxes or other barriers

GMO INSERT ON TRENDS SHAPING SOLAR IN COMING YEARS W/ OPPORTUNITIES – BARRIERS - SOLUTIONS

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Solar Trends

SolarPower Europe (European Photovoltaic Industry Association)Rue d’Arlon 69-71, 1040 Brussels, BelgiumT +32 2 709 55 20 / F +32 2 725 32 [email protected] /www.solarpowereurope.org

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