GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS QUARTER BY NUMBERS - Nielsen€¦ · Comparing the second quarter to the first, ... trade relations and the like. So now is the time to consider plans for engaging

GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS

QUARTER BY NUMBERSQ2 2018

Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

CONTENTSWELCOME ........................................................................... 3

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTSASIA-PACIFIC ........................................................................ 4

NORTH AMERICA ................................................................... 9

EUROPE WEST ..................................................................... 13

EUROPE EAST / CENTRAL ................................................... 18

LATIN AMERICA ................................................................... 23

AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST ................................................. 28

3 Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

WELCOMEAcross the globe, how companies do business is changing. Consumer behaviors are evolving as demographics shift and advances in technology are opening up new avenues for people to engage with content and brands.

These new connections are unlocking opportunities for marketers to reach consumers. But knowing how and where to connect with consumers in this increasingly complex marketplace can be challenging. As multinationals seek growth across the globe and local companies look beyond their borders, they need help identifying the opportunities that are right for their business.

Our Quarter by Numbers reports help our clients do just that. Our second-quarter 2018 report covers 65 countries across five regions. This quarterly series provides a global snapshot of what’s going on in our markets today.

We produce five reports to help clients zero in on specific regions of the world. The series is available free of charge to all Nielsen clients. They are also for sale to non-clients. This lite report represents an overview of the insights detailed in the five regional reports.

Our five market-level reports are as follows: Asia Pacific (15 countries), North America (2), Latin America (7), Africa & Middle East (8) and Europe (33).

If you are interested in purchasing one or more of the individual regional reports, please visit www.global.shopnielsen.com

ASIA-PACIFIC

At Nielsen, data drives everything we do—even art. That’s why we used real data to create this image. Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.


THE BIG PICTURE: ASIA-PACIFICTrade tensions between the U.S. and China may have sent jitters across Asia-Pacific markets in recent months, but they have had little effect so far on the region’s economic performance. We are still seeing strong year-on-year growth in many markets, especially China, India, the Philippines and Vietnam. And the economic outlook remains positive, as the Economic Intelligence Unit projects about 4.4% average GDP growth for the region this year.

However, the tensions between U.S. and China may be affecting consumer optimism, as consumer confidence levels plateaued or faltered in many of the region’s markets in the second quarter. Consumer confidence across the Asia-Pacific region fell 3 index points to 112, according to the second-quarter 2018 Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey, which is produced in collaboration with Nielsen. The dip was evenly spread across all three key measures: future job prospects, the state of personal finances, and now being a good time to buy the things people want or need.

Although Asia-Pacific consumers cited the economy as their second-biggest concern, it’s not something they can easily influence. Instead, consumers will react and adapt to broader economic developments, both current and anticipated, by adjusting their retail spend decisions. In contrast, they are much more in control of their health and work-life balance, their No. 1 and No. 3 concerns. These are also areas that can strongly influence fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) trends.

Let’s take work-life balance for example. As is happening globally, consumers in Asia-Pacific are leading increasingly hectic lives and are demanding products, places and processes to overcome everyday obstacles to effortless living.

As detailed in our recent Quest for Convenience report, convenience is a major trend influencing FMCG markets. Across the Asia-Pacific, as well as the world, small format stores are enjoying strong growth, helped by expanding their footprint into smaller urban areas. It’s in these stores that we see some of the best examples of how retailers are meeting consumers’ need for convenience.

But it goes beyond just store layout or product range. Instead, convenience is becoming a quintessential component of companies’ business models. Retailers, both online and offline, are reshaping traditional offerings with new technology and heightened service experience to give consumers back that most valued commodity—time.

Be it product packaging to ensure that health or sustainability information is easily identified or new pack sizes to meet the needs of smaller households, it’s increasingly pivotal that convenience is front and center for retailers and manufacturers alike.

Laura McCullogh

Marketing Effectiveness and Sales Effectiveness Practice Leader: Developing


The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.Source: GDP and inflation reflects % change per annum to Q2 2018, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) / local governments where not available in EIU

ASIA-PACIFIC AT A GLANCEECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND ASIA-PACIFICThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.

COUNTRIES WHERE ECONOMIC GROWTH IS HIGHEST HAVE SOME OF THE MOST OPTIMISTIC CONSUMERS.

Q2 2018 Q2 2018 vs Q1 2018

GDP (% change pa) Inflation

Thailand 102 -7 4.6 1.3

India 124 -6 7.4 4.9

Vietnam 120 -4 6.9 3.8

Japan 83 -4 1.3 0.6

Korea 56 -3 2.9 1.5

Taiwan 76 -3 3.3 1.7

Singapore 94 -3 3.8 0.3

Philippines 127 -2 6.9 4.8

New Zealand 102 -2 2.7 1.5

China 113 -2 6.7 1.6

Hong Kong 105 -2 3.5 2.1

Q2 2018 Q2 2018 vs Q1 2018


Malaysia 117 13 4.5 1.3

Australia 93 2 2.5 1.9

Indonesia 127 0 5.2 3.2

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

30

64

16

48

40

64

27

72

10

66

18

65

32

60

25

61

13

64

17

45

23

71

17

69

11

64

16

65

42

70

29

54

15

31

34

64

28

29

32

46

22

55

23

35

28

36

40

43

15

35

17

34

24

49

52

44

39

33

22

49


The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

ASIA-PACIFIC AT A GLANCECONSUMER SENTIMENT IN ASIA-PACIFIC

HEALTH HAS BECOME THE TOP CONCERN ACROSS ASIA-PACIFIC. CONSUMERS IN VIETNAM, CHINA AND JAPAN ARE MORE CONCERNED (IN TOP 5 MARKETS GLOBALLY) ABOUT HEALTH AND IS INCREASING STEADILY OVER TIME.

WHAT ARE THE TOP TWO CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS? Q2 2018Type of concern

WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING, AND INVESTING? Q2 2018After living expenses, how is spare money spent?

APAC AU CN HK ID IN JP KO MY NZ PH SG TH TW VN

Health 4 -3 5 0 -3 3 5 -3 -1 0 1 -3 -5 -10 1

Economy 1 0 2 3 2 -1 1 2 -4 -2 -1 1 5 1 -1

APAC AU CN HK ID IN JP KO MY NZ PH SG TH TW VN

Putting into savings 0 5 0 4 1 2 -2 2 -1 -3 3 4 -3 -1 -3

Holidays / vacations 1 -2 3 -1 2 1 -2 -3 2 4 2 -2 -5 1 3

Bars reflect Q2 2018. Table shows comparison to Q1 2018.


60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

APAC

APAC

AU

AU

CN

CN

HK

HK

ID

ID

JP

JP

KO

KO

MY

MY

NZ

NZ

PH

PH

SG

SG

TH

TH

TW

TW

VN

VN

IN

IN

% o

f res

pond

ents

% o

f res

pond

ents


Colour coding indicates growth or declining trend compated to same six-month period year ago.Average volume growth of Q1 ‘18 & Q2 ‘18 vs Q1 ‘17 & Q2 ‘17. Vietnam represents latest annual growth; no 2016 % growth available for comparison.

Average volume growth decreasing versus last period

Average volume growth increasing versus last period

LOOKING THROUGH ASIA-PACIFIC’S FMCG LENSFAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICS

Weighted average – APAC – 14 countries

WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?Average volume growth Q1 2018 and Q2 2018

2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3%

2.6%

2.4%

3.5%3.3%

2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9%

2.1%

1.7%

1.6%1.9%

2.2%

4.4%5.1%

3.6% 4.2%

5.9%

3.9%4.8% 4.9% 4.9%

5.3%

2.9% 2.8% 2.9%

MATYA

MATTY

Q3 16

UNIT VALUE GROWTH

THAILAND (-3.9%)HONG KONG (+2.2%)

CHINA (+3.2%)JAPAN (+0.6%)

KOREA (-0.8%)

TAIWAN (-0.7%)

PHILIPPINES (+0.8%)

SINGAPORE (-0.9%)

NEW ZEALAND (+1.6%)

INDIA (+9.5%)

MALAYSIA (+5.4%)

VIETNAM (+1.2%)

INDONESIA (-0.4%)

AUSTRALIA (+1.3%)

VOLUME GROWTH NOMINAL GROWTH

Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18

NORTH AMERICA



THE BIG PICTURE: NORTH AMERICAA CONSERVATIVE QUARTER FOR CONSUMERSDollar growth slowed across North American fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) in the second quarter of 2018. Much of this reflects the fact that Easter fell in the first quarter of the year. Despite slowed sales, however, consumer optimism remained stable quarter over quarter. Consumer confidence across North America remained stable at an index level of 121.

When it comes to spending, American consumers are slightly tightening their belts, but that doesn’t mean they’re not willing to spend if the right opportunity presents itself. Comparing the second quarter to the first, consumers expressed a greater desire to put more money into savings.

After we’ve seen consumers shift to save more in the past, we’ve seen them become more inclined to open their wallets again on the heels of short-term improvements in the economy, political stability, trade relations and the like. So now is the time to consider plans for engaging consumers when their typically short-term fiscal concerns ease.

In Canada, the warm weather has boosted consumers’ desire to spend spare cash on home improvements as pressures to pay off debt appears to have eased since last quarter. Home improvement spending opens doors to opportunity across retail, spanning from deck renovations to entertainment system upgrades to media room expansions—all of which are also amenable to meal occasions.


CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FACTORSIndex Levels – Q2 2018

TOP CONCERNS

CANADA U.S.

7265

616251

7

22 24 21 21 19 16 142022

42

7367

22 20 18 18 23 18 15 15 1524

63

Job

Pros

pect

s

The

econ

omy

The

econ

omy

Fuel

pri

ces

Hea

lth

Deb

t

Deb

t

Hea

lth

Job

secu

rity

Food

pri

ces

Terr

oris

m

Pers

onal

Fi

nanc

es

Goo

d tim

e to

buy

% North America

% Canada

% United States

Q1 2018 Q1 2018Q2 2018 Q2 2018



NORTH AMERICA AT A GLANCECONSUMER SENTIMENT IN NORTH AMERICA

DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS, MORE CANADIANS SPENT SPARE MONEY, AND LIKELY SPARE TIME, ON HOME IMPROVEMENT. IN AMERICA, MORE PUT SPARE CASH INTO THEIR SAVINGS.

ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, CONSUMERS COUNT THE ECONOMY AND HEALTH AMONG THEIR TOP CONCERNS. FOR MANY AMERICANS, THE EXTENT OF CONCERNS REMAIN STABLE; HOWEVER, INCREASINGLY MORE CANADIANS ARE WORRIED ABOUT FUEL PRICES THIS QUARTER.

TOP TWO CONCERNS OVER NEXT SIX MONTHSQ2 2018

24 2320

15 14 15

6

12

18

1199 9 8

5

15

22

11

18 18

THEECONOMY

HEALTH DEBT JOBSECURITY

TERRORISM POLITICAL STABILITY

FOODPRICES

GLOBALWARMING

WORK/LIFEBALANCE

FUELPRICES

CAN U.S.

Q1 2018 Q2 2018

Savings

Holidays

Paying off debt

New clothes

Home improvement

Savings

Holidays

Paying off debt

New clothes

Home improvement

43

36

36

27

28

48

33

33

31

27

42

34

39

23

19

42

33

34

26

24

CANADA U.S.

9 9


INFLATIONARY PRESSURES HAVE SLOWED GROWTH, AS AVERAGE UNIT PRICES INCREASED RELATIVE TO A YEAR AGO. THIS QUARTER SAW UNIT DECLINES OF OVER 850 MILLION COMPARED WITH Q2 2017, WHILE DOLLAR GROWTH WAS UP MORE THAN $1.3 BILLION.

FMCG DOLLAR GROWTH IN CANADA WAS TIMID, AND CONSUMPTION REMAINS SLOW, SO THE CHALLENGE TO CAPTURE CONSUMERS’ ATTENTION CONTINUES. INFLATION REMAINED LOW IN Q2.

CANADA FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICSLatest 52 weeks – Q2 2018

U.S. FMCG OFFLINE MARKET DYNAMICSLatest 52 weeks – Q2 2018

Source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Services (RMS), Total Food View, Total U.S. All outlets combined (xAOC), 52 weeks to June 30, 2018, UPC-coded and random-weight / non-UPC data

Source: Nielsen MarketTrack, National all channels, 52 weeks to June 23, 2018Excludes fresh random weight – Canada

1.4% 1.8%0.9%

-0.4%

2.2%0.6%

1.7%0.4%

1.8%

0.0%

3.2%

1.1%

-0.1%

1.6%0.0%

0.9%1.0%

2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 1.7%2.3%

0.9% 1.5%1.9%

3.5%

1.4%0.5%

1.5%

0.3%

YEAR AGO CURRENT Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18

UNIT % CHANGE

UNIT % CHANGE

UNIT INFLATION / DEFLATION

UNIT INFLATION / DEFLATION

NOMINAL GROWTH

DOLLAR % CHANGE

-2.2%

1.9%2.1%

1.6% 1.4% 1.4%

-1.4%

-0.2% 1.2% 0.7%-0.3%

0.3%

-0.5%-0.6% 0.3%

0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8%

0.8%

-0.1%

-0.2%-0.4% -0.6% -0.6%

-1.7% 0.8% 0.8%

2.7% 0.7%

YEAR AGO CURRENT Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18

EUROPE WEST



THE BIG PICTURE: EUROPE WESTEuropean consumer confidence has been on the rise over the last few quarters, and the trend continued in the second quarter as some markets continued to see confidence increases: confidence increased five points in both the U.K. and the Netherlands, confidence increased four points in Denmark, and confidence was up three points in Norway and Belgium.

Europeans diverge on the national issues of greatest concern, but health remains high on the list, specifically in Portugal and Finland. Consumers are also monitoring the economy, particularly in Italy and Spain.

FMCG growth remains unpredictable due to local market conditions, changing weather patterns and seasonal impacts. After the upside growth in the first quarter due to an early Easter in 2018, trends in the second quarter were consequently affected and shaped by shifting weather conditions.

FMCG sales growth slowed for the second successive quarter, increasing by 2.4% in value, down from 4.4% in fourth-quarter 2017 and 3.9% in first-quarter 2018. Volume sales fell for the first time since early 2017 in Europe, dropping by 0.1% overall: volume sales fell 2.2% in Belgium, 1.2% in Switzerland, 0.7% in the Netherlands and 0.8% in Spain. Ireland and Sweden were the primary exceptions, where volumes grew by 3.4% and 1.5%, respectively.

Growth is clearly becoming harder to achieve in the region, and the slowdown this quarter reinforces the need for FMCG players to find new ways to achieve sustainable growth. Growth, however, can be obtained. We have found winners across all sectors and markets where companies, segments and channels are performing strongly.

One trend that all players should be mindful of, as detailed in our Quest for Convenience report, is consumers’ increasing need for convenience in all aspects of their busy lives. Across Western Europe, 80% are urbanized—lacking time and seeking ease, utility and simplicity. When we talk about convenience, we’re speaking to any product, innovation or solution that helps consumers go about their daily lives more quickly and efficiently, whether it be through meal kits, home delivery, closer stores with smaller footprints for quick trips or ready-made food items.

Looking ahead, FMCG performance should improve in the third quarter, led by beverage categories, riding the wave of hot weather across Europe this summer and the World Cup competition, as well as high levels of promotions in the region during this important consumption period.

Olivier Lamare

Retail Services Developed Markets


GDP and inflation reflect % change per annum to Q2 2018 or (-) indicates not available at time of publicationSource: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) / OECD / Local government sourcesThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

EUROPE WEST MARKETS AT A GLANCEECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND EUROPEThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.

THE MOSTLY POSITIVE GAINS IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WERE BALANCED BY STEEP DECLINES IN SELECT MARKETS.

Q2 2018 Q2 2018 vs Q1 2018


Portugal 85 -5 2.3 1.0

Switzerland 99 -5 2.5 1.0

Italy 62 -4 1.1 1.0

Germany 107 -1 2.0 1.9

France 78 -1 1.7 2.1

Q2 2018 Q2 2018 vs Q1 2018


Ireland 108 5 7.0 0.4

UK 101 5 1.3 2.3

Netherlands 106 5 2.8 1.6

Denmark 118 4 0.8 1.0

Norway 92 3 1.5 2.4

Belgium 91 3 1.3 2.2

Finland 83 1 2.8 1.1

Austria 101 1 3.0 2.2

Spain 92 1 2.7 1.8

Sweden 99 0 3.3 1.9




EUROPE WEST MARKETS AT A GLANCECONSUMER SENTIMENT IN EUROPE

HEALTH AND THE ECONOMY REMAIN KEY CONCERNS, WHILE CONSUMERS ARE MIXED ON WHETHER IT’S A GOOD TIME TO SPEND, SAVE OR INVEST.

WHAT ARE THE TOP TWO CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?Type of concern

WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING, AND INVESTING? Q2 2018After living expenses, how is spare money spent?

EU AT BE CH DE DK ES FI FR GB IE IT NL NO PT SE

Economy 2 1 1 0 -1 1 4 1 -2 -2 2 9 0 -4 0 0

Health 1 -2 -5 -1 2 3 3 -2 0 -1 0 -2 1 3 -2 0

EU AT BE CH DE DK ES FI FR GB IE IT NL NO PT SE

Putting into savings 0 5 -1 8 -2 5 -3 -4 0 -3 -4 -4 3 -1 3 1

Holidays / vacations 2 -4 -4 -3 -1 -1 -3 0 0 -1 -3 -3 3 0 0 2

New clothes 2 5 5 0 -1 2 2 4 -2 -3 3 0 0 0 3 -2



25

20

15

10

5

0EU AT BE CH DE ES FI FR GBDK IE NL NO PT SE IT

60

50

40

30

20

10

0EU AT BE CH DE ES FI FR GBDK IE NL NO PT SE IT

40 39 3936

47

34

40

52

31

4952

48

3333

22

3642

33

42

49

36 36

44

30

4044 43

35

56

28

46 51

3127

51

20

36

53

2726

50 50 49

3229

37

45

36

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

% o

f res

pond

ents

% o

f res

pond

ents

20 20 20

28

18

12

7

22 22

28 28

16 1614 14

10

20 20 22

3126

18 18

10

20 2018

13

21 21

9 9


Colour coding indicates growth or declining trend compared to same six-month period year ago.Average volume growth of Q1 ‘18 & Q2 ‘18 vs Q1 ‘17 & Q2 ‘17.

LOOKING THROUGH EUROPE WEST’S FMCG LENSFAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICS – Q2 2018

Weighted average – West Europe – 15 countries

WHERE ARE THE FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?Average volume growth Q1 2018 and Q2 2018

FINLAND (-0.4%)

SWEDEN (+1.0%)

NORWAY (+0.7%)

NETHERLANDS (-0.7%)

BELGIUM (-1.4%)

AUSTRIA (+0.4%)

ITALY (+0.8%)

SPAIN (0%)PORTUGAL (+1.0%)

SWITZERLAND (-0.9%)FRANCE (-0.1%)

IRELAND (+3.0%)

GERMANY (+0.9%)

U.K. (+0.8%) DENMARK (-0.8%)



AT BE CH DE DK FI FR GBES IE NL NO PT SE IT

0.1%

-0.2% 0.6% 1.2%

0.9%

3.1%

2.0%1.0%

0.0%

2.9%

0.3%

1.9%2.2%

2.7%3.1%

0.9%

-0.8%

2.0% 1.8%

-1.2%

1.8%1.1%

-0.7%

4.0%

1.9% 1.5%2.6% 2.6%

0.6% 1.0%

1.6% 1.6%

1.5%

-0.7%

1.0%

-0.7%-0.5%

0.3%0.0%0.0%-0.8%-0.7%

UNIT VALUE CHANGE VOLUME CHANGE NOMINAL GROWTH

-2.2% -0.3%

ESDKDECHBE SEPTNONLITIEGBFRFIAT

0.0%

0.0%0.3%

2.6%1.6%

0.0%-0.5%

EUROPE EAST



THE BIG PICTURE: EUROPE EAST / CENTRALOver the last few years, we’ve seen the word convenience more regularly in many of the European market commentaries. Often it has been used to explain why certain channels or categories are growing and reflects a consumer need that has been around for some time but it is apparent that it’s gaining momentum and evolving.

Recently we held a series of webinars on the topic, which explored why consumers are looking for convenience in everything they do and how a blend of format, services and technology innovation will present challenges and opportunities in the FMCG space moving forward. In a session attended by European, Middle East and African attendees, we conducted a live poll asking the audience: Thinking about your own lives, which of the following challenges are becoming more concerning for you? The options that were most supported were:

Although the responses from the nearly 500 attendees reflected the sentiments from people who likely work for big FMCG companies and aren’t likely representative of your average consumer, they paint a picture characterized by the pressures of busy lifestyles. When we asked them “What solutions do you think consumers will increasingly leverage to deliver convenience in their lives over the next two-three years?,” the top responses were:

The sentiment from our poll supports the notion that we will have to continue to change the way we interact with consumers to meet their needs. We will have to fit in with their increasingly busy lives and know more than ever about what they want and how they want it. Convenience will be a big part of this. In eastern and central Europe we continue to see positive signs of confidence and growth, but as we have noted previously, market and consumer optimism in this part of the world is often accompanied by a healthy dose of caution.

• Reduce working hours/work life balance 56%• Ways and time to focus on healthy lifestyle 53%• Overall busyness – “too much to do” 48%• Meal preparation 43%• Traffic congestion 42%

• Home delivery - Products and services 78%• Grab and Go / Prepared products for instant consumption 62%• E-commerce and logistics 46%• Proximity retailing - Close to work/home 44%• Personalised communications and offers 43%

Daniel Chorbadjian

Managing Director Eastern Europe

Roberto Pedretti

Managing Director, Central and Southern Europe

Growth will not come consistently across channels or categories, but rather will depend on consumer lifestyles and needs. The challenge is that a consumer who is willing to pay more for a product on one occasion because it saves them time may be looking for a product that offers value on a future trip. So it’s critical that FMCG players stay tuned to consumers’ changing sentiment and preferences and adapt as needed.

Health and wellness is another popular focus; value offerings, seasonal products, local and organic, sustainable and ageing are other themes that continue to surface across our markets, and companies should be looking at how they can use these as trends for future business strategies, if they aren’t already.



GDP and inflation reflect % change per annum to Q2 2018 or (-) indicates not available at time of publicationSource: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) / OECD / Local government sourcesThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

EUROPE CENTRAL AND EAST MARKETS AT A GLANCEECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND EUROPEThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.

Q2 2018 Q2 2018 vs Q1 2018


Belarus 67 7 3.9 4.5

Estonia 88 7 3.7 3.3

Greece 67 6 2.0 0.7

Slovenia 87 6 3.8 1.9

Bulgaria 85 4 4.3 2.6

Ukraine 62 4 3.6 11.6

Slovakia 93 3 3.5 2.8

Kazakhstan 84 3 4.1 6.2

Russia 70 2 1.7 2.4

Hungary 80 2 4.5 2.7

Poland 105 2 5.0 1.8

Croatia 79 2 2.9 1.9

Lithuania 78 1 3.7 2.6

Serbia 75 1 4.4 1.7

Romania 92 1 4.2 5.4

Czech Rep. 108 0 2.9 2.3

Q2 2018 Q2 2018 vs Q1 2018


Latvia 80 -6 4.2 2.4

Turkey 88 -1 5.3 12.8


A MIXTURE OF REGIONAL TENSIONS AND IMPROVING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN REASONS FOR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MOVEMENT IN THESE MARKETS.



EUROPE CENTRAL AND EAST MARKETS AT A GLANCECONSUMER SENTIMENT IN EUROPE

PUTTING MONEY INTO SAVINGS IS A LEADING RESPONSE, HIGHLIGHTING A CAUTIOUS MINDSET ACROSS EUROPE, FOLLOWED BY SPENDING ON HOLIDAYS AND CLOTHES.

WHAT ARE THE TOP TWO CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?Type of concern

WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING, AND INVESTING?After living expenses, how is spare money spent?

EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU KZ LT LV PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UA

Health 1 -4 -4 -1 -6 0 -1 -1 1 2 -2 3 8 -1 3 -1 -2 -3 -4

Economy 2 1 4 1 3 2 0 -2 -4 -3 6 -3 -3 -2 1 -2 4 23 0


EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU KZ LT LV PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UA

Putting into savings 0 -1 1 5 -1 5 0 4 -3 -5 0 4 -4 -1 3 1 0 6 1

Holidays / vacations 2 5 6 7 8 3 2 5 3 2 5 3 5 1 2 2 2 10 12

New clothes 2 6 8 8 4 2 5 4 3 -3 2 0 2 1 3 3 4 6 4


EU BG BL CZ EE HR HU KZGR LT PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UA LV

20 2023

27 26 28 25

22

29

21

15

27

17

21

31

12

9

31

20

28

10

35

20

26

15

27

17

31

8

35

18

21

3

60

11 6

24

12

EU BG BL CZ EE HR HU KZGR LT PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UA

LV

40 39 39

30

37 36

28

23

32

43

3734 35

41

23

34

28 27

34

26

37

33

27

19 20 21

3735

38

20 21

38

28

58

41

47

35 3539

26 26 25

3229

40 39

31

19

45

34

29

54

50

54

28

3335

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

% o

f res

pond

ents

% o

f res

pond

ents



LOOKING THROUGH EUROPE CENTRAL AND EAST’S FMCG LENSFAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICS – Q2 2018Weighted average – Europe East and Central – 18 countries




RUSSIA (+3.7%)

ESTONIA (-1.4%)

LITHUANIA (-0.3%)

HUNGARY (+3.9%)

SERBIA (+0.1%)

POLAND (+3.3%)

BELARUS (+7.1%)

LATVIA (+2.2%)

BULGARIA (+4.6%)GREECE (+3.3%)

UKRAINE (+10.6%)

KAZAKHSTAN (-2.9%)

CZECH REPUBLIC (-1.0%)SLOVAKIA (-2.9%)

SLOVENIA (-0.2%)CROATIA (0%) ROMANIA (+4.4%)

TURKEY (+2.8%)

EU BG BL CZ EE HR HU KZGR LT PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UA LV

40 39 39

20

58

19

3.4%

3.8 %

4.4%

8.3%

3.8%

2.9%

3.8%1.5% 1.5%

-1.0%-1.1%

3.5%5.4%

1.6% 2.2% 1.7%4.4%1.7%

2.6%1.5%

-5.6%

4.3 %

5.3%

2.9% 1.8% 2.8%

5.0%0.7%

3.7%

-4.1%-1.8%

13.7%

10.1%

10.2%2.9%

VOLUME CHANGEUNIT VALUE CHANGE*BL = BELARUS NOMINAL GROWTH

7.2%

12.7%

0.9% 2.8%

0.2%

-1.1% -1.0%

0.7%1.6%

0.5%

7.8%-0.2%

3.1%4.8%

3.4%

9.7%

3.6% 6.8%

1.0% -0.4%

16.6% 20.4%

3.5%

-2.9%

3.8%

4.3%

LATIN AMERICA



THE BIG PICTURE: LATIN AMERICAGDP across Latin America increased by 1.8% in the second quarter, and researchers at BBVA project that GDP will grow at a rate of 2.1% in 2019. The growth recovery, however, is far from consistent across the region, as financial volatility is causing concern among consumers in Argentina and Brazil. Comparatively, Mexico, Colombia and Peru are experiencing positive growth momentum.

Across most of Latin America, we have observed a stable economic environment, moderate exchange rate depreciation, lower political stress and lower inflationary pressure. In Brazil, Argentina and Peru, consumers are less optimistic and have lower levels of confidence.

In this cautious economic environment, consumers continue to spend with a savings mindset, seeking deals and value where they can, with price the key decision driver for FMCG purchases. Many manufacturers and retailers have adapted their offerings in this environment, helping consumers better administrate their tight budgets through sizing strategies or promotional efforts.

In order to grow, companies must consider the longer term by focusing on consumers’ increasing need for convenient options, leveraging digital strategies, e-commerce and personalized offers to focus on those future generations with higher purchasing power: Millennials, Centennials and older consumers.

Sources: The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen. GDP and Inflation from Latin Focus, Q2 2018


Sources: The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen. GDP and Inflation from Latin Focus, Q2 2018

ECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND LATIN AMERICAThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.

INCREASING INFLATION RATES, HIGHER CURRENCY EXCHANGE AND MARKET INSTABILITY IS DRIVING CONCERN ACROSS BRAZIL, ARGENTINA, PERU AND CHILE.

GDP (annual % growth) Q2 2018 Inflation Q2 2018 Q2 2018 Q2 2018 vs Q1 2018

Brazil 1.3 4.4 81 -7

Chile 4.6 2.5 91 -4

Mexico 2.7 4.6 96 3

Colombia 2.5 3.2 101 2

Peru 4.8 1.4 90 -5

Argentina -0.5 29.5 76 -7

Costa Rica 3.1 2.1 87 4

LATIN FOCUS ECONOMICS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX


Source: The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

CONSUMERS ARE BEING MORE CAUTIOUS, EVEN WITH THEIR PERSONAL CONSUMPTION; THEY ARE PLANNING MORE AND SAVING MONEY AS MUCH AS IS POSSIBLE.

LATIN AMERICA AT A GLANCECONSUMER SENTIMENT IN LATIN AMERICA

WHAT ARE THE TOP 3 CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?Type of concern (%)

ACTIONS TAKEN TO SAVE ON HOUSEHOLD EXPENSESTop 3 actions taken to save money (%)

LATAM BR CL MX CO PE AR CR

The economy 5 9 -5 5 6 2 4 -4

Job security 0 -2 -3 -1 6 5 -3 0

Crime -2 -9 6 3 3 -6 1 -1

LATAM BR CL MX CO PE AR CR

Out-of-home entertainment 2 1 0 -4 4 8 11 9

New clothes 1 1 6 -2 -2 9 5 4

Grocery brands 2 1 0 2 4 6 6 4



37

51

42

59

13

39

33

38

32

44

31

38

37

55

33

45

22

49

9

55

32

43

27

33

41

47

36

43

26

54

38

34

21

46

15

41

30

47

30

44

18

51

26

38

25

66

19

48

LATAM

LATAM

CR

CR

BR

BR

CL

CL

MX

MX

CO

CO

AR

AR

PE

PE

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

% o

f res

pond

ents

% o

f res

pond

ents

28Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.


LOOKING THROUGH LATIN AMERICA’S FMCG LENSFAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICS

Weighted average – LatAm – 13 countries*




MEXICO (+3.1%)

COLOMBIA (+0.4%)

CHILE (+1.1%)

PERU (-6.4%)

COSTA RICA (-0.7%)

BRAZIL (-1.6%)

ARGENTINA (+2.8%)

(*) Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Peru and Uruguay data from Q1 ‘14 until present. Excluded: Venezuela, Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic.

-1.0%

-1.6%

1.5%

-2.2% -2.3%-2.6%-2.9%

4.8%9.3%

6.9% 4.1% 4.0% 3.4%4.4%8.2%

-3.9%

3.2%

7.0%5.6%

4.8%

0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3%

4.6%4.5% 4.8%

2.1%

3.7%

2016 2017 Q3 16

UNIT VALUE GROWTH VOLUME GROWTH NOMINAL GROWTH

Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18

AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST



THE BIG PICTURE: AFRICA & MIDDLE EASTThe Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s annualized economic growth strengthened in second-quarter 2018, with GDP increasing by 2.8%, ahead of the first quarter’s growth of 2.5%, representing the strongest expansion in more than a year.

The acceleration reflected stronger growth among oil-exporting countries, as crude oil prices were around 50% higher than levels last year. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries also benefited from the recovery in non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which were affected in first-quarter 2018 by the introduction of a value-added tax.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA’s) economy picked up pace in the first quarter of 2018, with regional GDP increasing by 3% year-over-year, surpassing the 2.8% prediction by Focus Economics. At mid-year, however, the full-year forecast for the SSA economy was revised down, the first downgrade in 10 months. SSA’s GDP is now expected to grow at 3.4%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous forecast, although still ahead of 2017’s 2.5% level. While higher commodity prices, improved agricultural output and recovering domestic demand should drive faster recovery, challenging business environments, poor infrastructure and high debt loads will continue to affect activity.

Second-quarter 2018 consumer confidence levels increased in five of the Africa and Middle East (AME) countries (Morocco, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Kenya). And while confidence dropped in Ghana, the overall index for MENA remains positive. In Egypt and South Africa, where confidence declined from second-quarter 2018, both country scores are ahead of where they were a year ago. The positive consumer sentiment bodes well for rising consumer demand and subsequent recovery in retail sales. And coupled with improving inflationary conditions in many AME countries, the second half of 2018 holds promising growth opportunities for consumer goods manufacturers and retailers.


Source: Trading Economics, GDP and Inflation. The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

GDP and Inflation are annualised for the latest quarter available (GDP – Q1 ‘18, inflation Q2 ‘18). CCI change is relative to the previous quarter (PQ).

AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST AT A GLANCEECONOMIC AND CONSUMER PULSEThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.

CONSUMER SENTIMENT CLIMBED IN FIVE COUNTRIES, WHICH CORRESPONDS WITH MORE FAVOURABLE AND LOWERING INFLATION LEVELS.

CCI Q2 2018

CCI CHG vs P/Q

GDP Annual Growth

Inflation

Ghana 108 -12 6.8 10.0

Egypt 80 -5 5.4 10.9

South Africa 90 -5 0.8 4.2

CCI Q2 2018

CHG vs P/Q

GDP Annual Growth

Inflation

Saudi Arabia 107 11 1.2 2.1

Nigeria 122 9 1.9 10.7

United Arab Emirates 116 6 – 3.3

Morocco 70 3 2.9 2.5

Kenya 104 2 5.7 4.3



Source: The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST AT A GLANCE

CONSUMER SENTIMENTTop two concerns in the next six months

WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING AND INVESTING?After living expenses, how is spare money utilized?

CAUTIONARY SENTIMENT REGARDING SPEND PREVAILS, WITH CONSUMERS OPTING TO SAVE RATHER THAN SPEND. ALL COUNTRIES SHOW POSITIVE INCREASES TOWARD SPEND ON CLOTHING.

EGY MOR KSA UAE ZA

Job security -1 -2 -3 -3 5

The economy -2 -1 3 1 -3

EGY MOR KSA UAE ZA

Putting into savings 1% 7% 2% 1% -2%

New clothes 1% 4% 7% 4% 2%

Chart – current quarter; Table – change vs PQ

Top concern and spending data unavailable for Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria

22

38

25

23

39

45

42

44

29

44

29

28

16

20

29

26

24

25

25

30

EGY

EGY

MOR

MOR

KSA

KSA

UAE

UAE

ZA

ZA

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

% o

f res

pond

ents

% o

f res

pond

ents

-6.8% -6.3%


Colour coding indicates growth or declining trend – average Q1 ‘18 & Q2 ‘18 vs Q1 ‘17 & Q2 ‘17.

LOOKING THROUGH AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST’S FMCG LENSFAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICS

Weighted average growth Q2 ‘18 vs year ago




MOROCCO (-4.8%)

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (-3.4%)SAUDI ARABIA (-9.0%)

NIGERIA (-0.3%)GHANA (+5.3%)

EGYPT (+6.8%)

KENYA (+0.5%)

SOUTH AFRICA (+1.3%)

-1.2%2.8% 2.8%-2.1%

12.2% 11.1%

5.9%

5.5% 5.3%4.3%

-4.8%

18.0%

-7.0% 0.7%

-0.2%

0.8%

0.8%

-0.8%3.6% 6.2%

9.9%

-0.6%

Q3 16

UNIT VALUE GROWTH VOLUME GROWTH NOMINAL GROWTH

Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18


INTERESTED IN ADDITIONAL INSIGHTS?If you are interested in purchasing one or more of the regional quarter by numbers reports, please visit www.global.shopnielsen.com


ABOUT NIELSENNielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global measurement and data analytics company that provides the most complete and trusted view available of consumers and markets worldwide. Our approach marries proprietary Nielsen data with other data sources to help clients around the world understand what’s happening now, what’s happening next, and how to best act on this knowledge. For more than 90 years Nielsen has provided data and analytics based on scientific rigor and innovation, continually developing new ways to answer the most important questions facing the media, advertising, retail and fast-moving consumer goods industries. An S&P 500 company, Nielsen has operations in over 100 countries, covering more than 90% of the world’s population. For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.

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