Global Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda

Global Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda

Shenggen FanDirector General

International Food Policy Research Institute

European Commission, Brussels, May 4, 2010

Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010

Key messages

• Achieving the MDG1 goal of cutting hunger is not on track

• Emerging trends present further challenges for the future

• MDG1 is still achievable and there have been successes

• But a new agenda must be adopted


The number of hungry needs to fall by 73 mil. per year to meet MDG1


29 countries have “alarming“/“extremely alarming” levels of hunger (2009 GHI)

GHI components:• Proportion of undernourished• Prevalence of underweight in children• Under-five mortality rate

Source: von Grebmer et al. 2009.

Domestic prices remain high in some countries

Rice prices, $US/ton

Source: FAO 2010.

Jan-06

Apr-06Ju

l-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07Ju

l-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08Ju

l-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09Ju

l-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400 DRC, KisanganiBurundi, Bu-jumburaRwanda, KigaliGlobal


Non-food factors continue to influence food prices

Energy: Oil prices have reached a 19-month high; Biofuel production is still growing, even though at a slower pace

Trade: Some export restrictions have been extended to 2010

Finance: Credit availability not yet restored to its pre-crisis level


Emerging trends

Population growth and demographic changes

Land and water constraints

Climate change

Rapidly growing population and demographic change

World population reaches 9 billion by 2050

All growth to come from urban areas

Most growth to come from developing countries

Source: FAO 2009.

Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food


Natural resource constraints are high

Source: IWMI 2000.

Projected water scarcity in 2025

Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

NCAR A2a

Climate change pressure on food production systems

Climate change impact on production: Rainfed maize, 2050

Global production = -16%


Climate change impact: Child malnutrition

South Asia

East Asia and Pacific

Europe and Central Asia

Latin America and Caribbean

Middle East and North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

2050 NCAR No CF2050 No climate change2000

Million children under 5 years of age

Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009..


Successes show that rapid food secuirty improvement is possible

Asia: Green Revolution (1965-85)

China: land reform (1978-84); higher rice yields (1977-now)

India: seed marketing (mid-1960s-now), dairy sector development (1970-96)

Kenya: unlocking fertilizer and maize markets (1990-2007)

Nigeria, Ghana, and Uganda: pest- and disease-resistant cassava (1971-89)

Vietnam: Exiting from collective agriculture (1988-93)Source: Spielman and Pandya-Lorch 2009.

New agenda for food security needed

1. Invest in agriculture and improve smallholder productivity

2. Keep trade open

3. Promote productive social protection

4. Invest in climate change adaptation and mitigation

5. Improve institutions and capacities


1. Invest in agriculture and improve smallholder productivity

Increase agric. spending, improve access to inputs and services, secure land rights, invest in rural infrastructure

Source: Fan and Johnson (2009).

0.51.0

1.52.02.5

3.03.5

4.0Actual ag spending in 2004, billion USD

Annual ag spending required, billion USD (2008-15)


Ag + non-ag growth = highest poverty reduction

Source: Diao et al. 2008.

Poverty simulations, Rwanda


2. Keep trade open

Eliminate harmful trade restrictions and refrain from imposing new ones• to increase efficiency• to stabilize prices

Complete the Doha Round • if tariffs increase to their current WTO limits (bound

level): 11.5% loss of developing country exports US$353 billion loss in world welfare

Potential costs of failed Doha Round could be highSource: Bouet and Laborde 2009.


3. Promote productive social protectionScale up safety nets to: Secure and smooth food consumption Enable saving and investment Build and diversify assets

Types of interventions e.g.: Conditional cash/food transfers Maternal and child health/nutrition programs Public works Insurance for the poor

Source: Adato and Hoddinott 2008.

Programs depend on needs, capacities, and resources


Innovative insurance for poor farmers and consumers

Agriculture: index-based weather insurance for crops and livestock

Health: community-based health insurance

Effective delivery channels• Agricultural cooperatives to deliver weather

insurance products• Microfinance institutions to provide

microinsuranceSource: Vargas Hill and Torero 2009.


4. Invest in climate change adaptation and mitigation

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

Developing countries

Agric. research 314 172 1,316

Irrigation expansion 537 344 907

Irrigation efficiency 187 999 2,158

Rural roads 2,015 17 2,737

Total 3,053 1,531 7,118

Annual expenditure to counteract climate change effects on child nutrition by 2050 (million 2000 US$)

Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009.


5. Improve institutions and capacities Build up existing institutions and improve evidence-

based policy making

• Increase gradual implementation after careful experimentation as in Asian reform process (esp. China)

• Increase investment in information gathering, monitoring, and evaluation

Strengthen human and administrative capacities through increased investment in education and training


Building capacity for policy analysis Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support

System (ReSAKSS)• Africa-wide network • Supports implementation of CAADP and other

regional initiatives

Country SAKSS• Provides technical support for CAADP roundtable

process• Monitor and evaluate performance of agricultural

sector against CAADP goals

Rapid hunger reduction is achievable with effective

country-led and country-owned actions

Global Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda

Education

climate change

shenggen fan

leather goods

dairy products

tariffs

wto

agriculture

textiles