Global Environmental Global Environmental Change & Change & Health Health Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H. Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H. Center for Health and the Global Environment Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard Medical School Harvard Medical School http://med.harvard.edu/chge http://med.harvard.edu/chge
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Global Environmental Change & Health Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H. Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard Medical School .
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Global Environmental Global Environmental Change &Change &
HealthHealth
Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H.Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H.
Center for Health and the Global EnvironmentCenter for Health and the Global Environment
The loss of forests, freshwater and biodiversity, The loss of forests, freshwater and biodiversity, inadequate and inefficient use of energy, and the inadequate and inefficient use of energy, and the explosive growth in the world’s urban centers explosive growth in the world’s urban centers undermine long-term economic growth and undermine long-term economic growth and threaten ecological systems. They also endanger threaten ecological systems. They also endanger human health, and increase developing countries human health, and increase developing countries vulnerability to natural disasters and conflict. …vulnerability to natural disasters and conflict. …Furthermore, increases in global greenhouse gas Furthermore, increases in global greenhouse gas emissions, approximately fifty percent of which emissions, approximately fifty percent of which are produced in developing countries, threaten to are produced in developing countries, threaten to disturb the delicate ecological balance, disturb the delicate ecological balance, disproportionately affecting the world's poor who disproportionately affecting the world's poor who are the least able to adapt to these changes. are the least able to adapt to these changes. Long-term economic growth depends upon Long-term economic growth depends upon managing a country’s natural resources base, managing a country’s natural resources base, using energy to increase human productivity, using energy to increase human productivity, helping cities to provide services and markets, helping cities to provide services and markets, and having predictable seasonal and long-term and having predictable seasonal and long-term climatic conditions.climatic conditions.
-- US Agency for International Development (2002)
Agent
Host Environment
Social
Ecological Global
Traditional Epidemiological
Framework
Ecological Epidemiological
Framework
Disease Epidemics
SYSTEMS
-2-2
-3-3
-4-4
-5-5
33
22
11
00
Agriculture Agriculture emergesemerges
MesopotamiaMesopotamiaflourishesflourishes
Vikings inVikings inGreenlandGreenland
End ofEnd oflastlastice ageice age YoungerYounger
DryasDryas
IPCC (2001) forecast:IPCC (2001) forecast:+ 1.4-5.8+ 1.4-5.8ooC, with band C, with band of uncertaintyof uncertainty
Little Ice Little Ice Age in EuropeAge in Europe(15th-18th(15th-18thcenturies)centuries)
21stcentury:
rapid rise
BlackBlackDeathDeath
HoloceneHoloceneOptimumOptimum
Global Temperature: the Past 20,000 Years, & the Next 100 Years
Color Variants on Color Variants on M. cavernosaM. cavernosaPhoto: Raymond HayesPhoto: Raymond Hayes Red Band Disease on Red Band Disease on M. annularisM. annularis
Photo: Laurie RichardsonPhoto: Laurie Richardson
SARS Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
CORONAVIRUS
1. Species X-over
2. Genetic reshuffling
3. Farming practices &
food handling
$50-100 BILLION
TRADE, TRAVEL, TOURISM
Bio Economic Research Associates, Cambridge, MA
HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDSSOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL DETERMINANTS
TransmissionInformal sector, Mining, Conflict
Viral EvolutionViral EvolutionCoxsackie virusCoxsackie virusLevander & Beck. Selenium and viral virulence. Br Med Bul 1999;55:528Levander & Beck. Selenium and viral virulence. Br Med Bul 1999;55:528
EE and REEE and RE “ “Green Buildings” & Smart Green Buildings” & Smart GrowthGrowth Rationalized Transport & Rationalized Transport & TransitTransit Retrofitting InfrastructureRetrofitting Infrastructure Ecological ReconstructionEcological Reconstruction