2nd GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios Workshop First Draft - Do not cite or quote - First Draft - Do not cite or quote - First Draft - Do not cite or quote - First Draft - Do not cite 4 Prototype Scenarios developed by a group of regional experts based on the MEA Scenarios Drivers, Food Systems, Scenario Analysis -FIRST DRAFT - BASED ON WORKSHOP OUTCOME - 23-25 November 2005, Port-of-Spain, T&T Global Environmental Change & Food System Research in the Caribbean
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Global Environmental Change & Food System Research in the Caribbean
Global Environmental Change & Food System Research in the Caribbean. 4 Prototype Scenarios developed by a group of regional experts based on the MEA Scenarios Drivers, Food Systems, Scenario Analysis FIRST DRAFT - BASED ON WORKSHOP OUTCOME - 23-25 November 2005, Port-of-Spain, T&T. GEC DRIVERS - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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2nd GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios Workshop
First Draft - Do not cite or quote - First Draft - Do not cite or quote - First Draft - Do not cite or quote
- First Draft - Do not cite
4 Prototype Scenarios developed by a group of regional experts based on the MEA Scenarios
Drivers, Food Systems, Scenario Analysis
-FIRST DRAFT - BASED ON WORKSHOP OUTCOME -23-25 November 2005, Port-of-Spain, T&T
Global Environmental Change & Food System Research in the Caribbean
2nd GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios Workshop
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- First Draft - Do not cite
The Main Elements of Food Systems: Drivers, Activities, Outcomes
Food System ACTIVITIESProducing
Processing & PackagingDistributing & Retailing
Consuming
SocioeconomicDRIVERS
Changes in:Demography, Economics,
Socio-political context, Cultural context
Science & Technology
Food System OUTCOMESContributing to: Food Security, Environmental
Security, and other societal interests
FoodAvailability
FoodUtilisation
FoodAccess
Environm.Security
Social Interests
DRIVERSInteractions
GEC DRIVERSChanges in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity,Sea level
‘Natural’DRIVERS
e.g. VolcanoesSolar cycles
Wider Societal Interests
relate to Food Systems• Food Security• Environment Security• Other Securities
2nd GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios Workshop
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Caribbean Scenarios:Demographic Developments
Socio Economic DRIVERS
Global Orchestration Scenario
Order from Strength Scenario
Techno Garden Scenario
Adapting Mosaic Scenario
Population growth continues, lower rate
Fertility rates low (due to high income)
lower fertility & mortality
Life expectancy increases increases
Age structure stable (also in agriculture)
stable aging
Migration decreasing more selective, brain-drain, within / out of region
Selective, within region follows resource availability
Relatively low
Urban - rural low in small countries, due more rural development
less people in agriculture
less urban, less migration from rural; more small urban centres, rural settlem
2nd GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios Workshop
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Economic Growth Relatively high Relatively low Relatively high Low, but steady (maybe initial drop), growth not in traditional economics
Equity Increase in equity More inequalities both within region and countries, less ‘middle class’
Greater economic divide
More equitable wealth distribution, equity rather than growth
Financial flows intraregional increase in financial flows
Tech is concentrated in few companies -wealth follows
less injection of money from outside Caribbean
Unemployment
2nd GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios Workshop
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Caribbean Scenarios:Regional Cooperation
Socio Economic DRIVERS
Global Orchestration Scenario
Order from Strength Scenario
Techno Garden Scenario
Adapting Mosaic Scenario
Regional Cooperation
• increase coop for economic issues• increase coop for environmental issues• often market driven, policy follows• Haiti issue resolved, integrated
• First more regional coop (until 2015)• More diverse global power situation• Caribbean countries as satellites, in struggle for international power spheres• Neo-colonial mentality• Fragmentized world - leads to fragmented Caribbean
• more regional coop • specialization in key products and development of niche markets• CSME works• National specialization, ‘for the greater good’?
• CSM comes into play, effective by 2010• high labor movement, follows options• disparities between countries drive mobility• some regional coop, but sustainable development addressed on national level
2nd GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios Workshop
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