Global Energy Assessment - International Institute for ... · vital energy systems GEA Methodology Energy security at present Energy security in the future Lessons & way ahead Deﬁnition

Global Energy Assessment

Energy security analysis

Aleh Cherp, Central European University and Lund UniversityJessica Jewell, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

and CEU

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1979 Energy in a Finite World (Häfele et al.)

1985/1988 Energy for a Sustainable World (Goldemberg, Johansson, Reddy, and Williams)

1996 Energy after Rio (Reddy et al., 1996)

1998 Energy for Tomorrow’s World (World Energy Council, WEC)

2000/2004 World Energy Assessment, (UNDP, WEC, UNDESA)

2006 IIASA endorsed the proposal for GEA

Global Energy Assessment’s History

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1979 Energy in a Finite World (Häfele et al.)

1985/1988 Energy for a Sustainable World (Goldemberg, Johansson, Reddy, and Williams)

1996 Energy after Rio (Reddy et al., 1996)

1998 Energy for Tomorrow’s World (World Energy Council, WEC)

2000/2004 World Energy Assessment, (UNDP, WEC, UNDESA)

2006 IIASA endorsed the proposal for GEA

www.globalenergyassessment.org

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GEA Methodology

Energy security at present

Energy security in the future

Lessons & way ahead

... next 18 minutes

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Energy security at presentGEA Methodology Lessons & way aheadEnergy security in the future

Energy securityassessment framework

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OperationalDefinition

Delineatevital energy

systems

IdentifyVulnerabilities

SelectIndicators

Process and interpret

Energy security

assessment framework

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Definition Vital energy systems Vulnerabilities Indicators Process & interpret

energy security =low vulnerability

vital energy systemsof

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vital energy systems 100 years ago

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Primary energy sources

TPES

Biomass Domestic oil, gas & coal

Hydro-power

National electricity systems

Industry

Residential & Commercial

Transport

Global nuclear industry and

fuel cycle

Globally traded coal,

gas & oil

Regional gas networks

National PES mix

vital energy systems



Carriers End-uses

Regional

National

Globalmodified from Liliestam, Patt & Cherp, Under review

today

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energy security =vulnerability

oflow

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vulnerability = risk + resilience

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risk

shocks

stresses

physical

price

intentions probabilities uncertainties

Sovereignty Robustness Resilience

Coa

Nuclear

Wind

Political scienceInternational relations

Natural scienceEngineering

Complexity scienceEconomics

Cherp & Jewell, 201114




vulnerability

vulnerability 1 vulnerability 2 vulnerability 3

system 1

system 2

system 3

concern 1-1 concern 1-2 concern 1-3

concern 2-1

concern 3-1

concern 2-2

concern 3-2

concern 2-3

concern 3-3

indicator C

indicator Bindicator A

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Total index = 87

Cherp and Jewell, 2013

indicator C

indicator B

indicator A = 45%

= 13 years

= 34.7 TWh

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Major energy sourcesCountries People, bln

> 10% of total primary energy supply> 10% of total primary energy supply> 10% of total primary energy supply

Oil 125 5.9

Coal 45 4.5

Gas 78 2

> 10% of total electricity generation> 10% of total electricity generation> 10% of total electricity generation

Hydro 74 4.6

Nuclear 21 1.3

Biomass* n/a 2.5


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Hydro-power


Industry


Transport


fuel cycle


gas & oil


National PES mix


Primary energy sources Carriers End-uses

Regional

National

Global

Energy exports

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Traded share

Geographic diversity of

supply

Global R/P, years

Oil 66% 1.63 30

Gas 29% 1.84 80

Coal 14% 1.92 150


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Oil Gas Coal

2

4

6

25-50%50-75%>75%

Population in countries with import dependency, bln

Most low-income

countries


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Why oil and transport?

4%5%

22%

41%

13%

16%HydroNuclearCoal/peatNatural gasOilOther

Oil92%

Diversity = 1.5 Diversity = 0.3

Electricity

Electricity

Transport


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ElectricityEnergy security at presentGEA Methodology Lessons & way aheadEnergy security in the future

Oil92%


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ElectricityEnergy security at presentGEA Methodology Lessons & way aheadEnergy security in the future

1.7 bln people live in countries where transport energy use has grown faster than 8% annually over 1998-2007

Oil92%


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Hydro-power


Industry


Transport

Nuclear industry and

fuel cycleGlobally

traded coal, gas & oil


National PES mix


Regional

National

Global


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Nuclear energy, 2010

Average age of NPPs*

Most recent NPP construction startedMost recent NPP construction startedAverage age of NPPs*

< 22 years ago > 22 years ago

< 25 years CHN, BRA, IND, KOR CZE, BUL, UKR, SVK, ROU, MEX

> 25 yearsRUS, JPN, FRA,

PAK, FIN

UK, USA, CAN, Germany, ARG, SWE, BEL, ESP, HUN, SAR, SLO, NED, SUI, ARM

* world average 26 years


4 6

5 14

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Nuclear energy capacities


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Hydro-power


Industry


Transport


fuel cycle


gas & oil


National PES mix


Regional

National

Global


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Aging of power plantsEnergy security at presentGEA Methodology Lessons & way aheadEnergy security in the future

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Aging of power plantsEnergy security at presentGEA Methodology Lessons & way aheadEnergy security in the future

to catch up with retirement and growth in demand• 85 countries (1.4 bln people) need to speed up

construction of power plants 3 times or more; • 78 countries (3.8 bln people) need to increase

construction rates between 0.5 and 3 times.

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Electricity demand

4.2 bln people live in countries with demand growth rate over 6% per year.or access to electricity rate < 60%


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• Economic growth at historic rates

• Universal access to electricity and cleaner cooking, by 2030

• Avoid dangerous climate change, stay below + 2oC above pre-industrial

• Reduce air pollution impacts on health

GEA scenarios


modified from Jewell, Cherp & Riahi, Under review32

33modified from Riahi et al., 2012 (GEA Chapter 17)

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Efficiency Mix Supply

GEA scenarios

modified from Riahi et al., 2012 (GEA Chapter 17)34

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DEMAND → SupplySupply MixMix EfficiencyEfficiency

TRANSPORT →Adv Conv Adv Conv Adv Conv

SUPPLYAdv Conv Adv Conv Adv Conv

Full portfolio of supply options X X X X X XLimited renewable energy sources (RES) X - X X X X

Limited bioenergy X - X X X XLimited RES & Limited bioenergy - - - - X X

No Nuclear X X X X X XNo carbon capture and storage (CCS) - - X X X X

No Nuclear & No carbon capture and storage - - - - X XNo bioenergy CCS X - X - X X

No carbon sinks beyond the baseline (No sinks) X - X X X XNo bioenergy CCS & No sinks & Limited BE* - - - - X X

GEA sustainable energy scenarios: demand, transport and supply choices

modified from Riahi et al., 2012 (GEA Chapter 17)35

electricity systems

Transport


gas & oil

PES mix

vital energy systems in the future


Globally traded biomass, synfuels

& hydrogen


Hydro-power

SolarWind

Nuclear


Regional

Global

Jewell, Cherp & Riahi, Under review

Exports

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Overall energy trade

Jewell, Cherp & Riahi, Under review


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Trade in individual fuels


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Diversity of gas production & transport


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• MOSES

• ROSE

• LIMITS

After GEA


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• From indicators to assessment frameworks

• Oil is the predominant global problem

• Low-carbon futures will replace it with other issues

• Impact of fossil fuel availability?

• Dynamic of export revenues?

• Reflexivity of ES policies?

Lessons and ways ahead


www.globalenergyassessment.org

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Global Energy Assessment - International Institute for ... · vital energy systems GEA Methodology Energy security at present Energy security in the future Lessons & way ahead Deﬁnition

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