Global Employment Trends for Youth Steven Kapsos International Labour Organization UN/DESA Expert Group Meeting on Adolescents, Youth and Development New York, 21-22 July 2011
Feb 16, 2016
Global Employment Trends for Youth
Steven KapsosInternational Labour Organization
UN/DESA Expert Group Meeting on Adolescents, Youth and DevelopmentNew York, 21-22 July 2011
Overview1. The big picture:
A. Why focus on youth?B. Youth vulnerabilities in the labour marketC. What we know and what we don’t know
2. Labour market trends for youth: the pre-crisis picture3. Impact of the global economic crisis on youth in the labour market4. Policy responses
1. The big picture
Why focus on youth employment? Inefficiencies in youth labour market
(unemployment, discouragement, working poverty) are costly
Lack of decent work at an early age compromises future employment prospects and impacts behaviour
A young person with hopes and options is happy; take away the options and youth become angry
Future consumers, producers … societies
Why are young people particularly vulnerable in the labour market?
Educational deficiencies Skills/talent mismatch Lack of work experience, professional
contacts, networks Precarious employment contracts/dual
labour markets Last-in, first-out phenomenon
Barriers to entrepreneurship
Quantifying youth vulnerability: What do we know?
What we do not know . . .Unemployed
Discouraged workers
?
Fully employed
?
Underemployed?
In full-time
education ?
Other?
Breakdown of the inactive by reason - how many are in each category?
Inactive
Employed
Shares of underemployed v. fully employed in total employment?
Size of the vulnerable youth population??
What we know . . .
Inactive share
increased from 45.3 to 49.2%
Employed share
decreased from 47.9 to 44.7%
Unemployed share
decreased from 6.8 to 6.1%
Share of working poor - 28.1%
2. Labour market trends for youth – the pre-crisis picture
Share of youth in the total population show declining trend in all regions
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
11.0
13.0
15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
23.0
25.0Share of youth in the total population, by
region, 1991 to 2015
WORLD
Developed Economies & European Union
Central & South-East-ern Europe (non-EU) & CIS
East Asia
South-East Asia & the Pacific
South Asia
Latin America & the Caribbean
Middle East
North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010
Employment-to-population ratios decrease over time in most regions19
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
07
25.030.035.040.045.050.055.060.065.070.075.0
Youth employment-to-population ratio, by region, 1991 to 2007 Developed Economies
& European Union
Central & South-East-ern Europe (non-EU) & CIS
East Asia
South-East Asia & the Pacific
South Asia
Latin America & the Caribbean
Middle East
North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010
Global youth unemployment rates were decreasing before the economic crisis
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
p20
11p0.0
10.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0
10.010.511.011.512.012.513.013.5
70.0
66.2
65.9 66
.671
.170
.871
.071
.974
.373
.975
.378
.078
.578
.979
.676
.672
.9
11.7
11.111.211.3
12.112.212.212.4
12.812.712.813.213.213.113.1
12.5
11.9
Global youth unemployment and un-employment rate, 1991 to 2007
Youth unemployment (millions) Youth unemployment rate (%)
Yout
h un
empl
oym
ent
(mill
ions
) Youth unemploym
ent rate (%)
Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010
But young people remain disadvantaged relative to adults across regions
Middle
East
North A
frica
Centr
al & So
uth-Ea
stern
Europ
e (non
-EU) &
CIS
South-
East A
sia & th
e Paci
fic
Latin
Ameri
ca & th
e Cari
bbean
Develo
ped E
conom
ies & Eu
ropea
n Unio
n
Sub-Sa
haran
Africa
South
Asia
East A
sia0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Youth, 1998 Youth, 2008 Adult, 1998 Adult, 2008
Une
mpl
oym
ent
rate
(%
)
Inequalities in the chances of finding work
Young women tend to have more difficulty finding work than young men.
In most OECD countries, unemployment is higher among the lesser educated youth; in developing countries, it is the highly educated who face longer job searches.
Unemployment rates are typically higher among ethnic minorities.
Young women face much higher unemployment rates than young men in some regions
Middle
East
North A
frica
Latin
America
& the C
aribb
ean
Centr
al & So
uth-Ea
stern
Europe
(non-
EU) &
CIS
South-
East A
sia & th
e Paci
fic
Sub-Sa
haran
Africa
Develo
ped E
conom
ies & Eu
ropea
n Unio
n
South
Asia
East A
sia0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Youth male, 2008 Youth female, 2008
Une
mpl
oym
ent
rate
(%
)
Working poverty rates among youth exceed those of adults
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0 Working poverty estimates, youth and adult cohorts15-24 25+
Shar
e of
wor
king
poo
r in
tot
al
empl
oyed
(%
)
Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010
3. Impact of the global economic crisis on youth in the labour market
The economic crisis reversed pre-crisis progress in global youth unemployment
2007 2008 2009 2010p 2011p68.070.072.074.076.078.080.082.0
11.211.411.611.812.012.212.412.612.813.013.2
72.9
74.1
80.7 81
.2
78.511.9
12.1
13.0 13.1
12.7
Global youth unemployment and un-employment rate, 2007 to 2011
Youth unemployment (millions) Youth unemployment rate (%)
Yout
h un
empl
oym
ent
(mill
ions
) Youth unemploym
ent rate (%)
p = projectionSource: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010
Youth in developed economies are particularly hard hit
2007 2008 2009 2010p 2011p5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0 Youth unemployment rate, by region, 2007 to 2011 Developed Economies
& European UnionCentral & South-East-ern Europe (non-EU) & CISEast AsiaSouth-East Asia & the PacificSouth AsiaLatin America & the CaribbeanMiddle EastNorth AfricaSub-Saharan Africa
p = projectionSource: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010
Impact of the crisis on the industrial sector, particularly construction, resulted in a sharp increase in unemployment among male youth
M = male; F = femaleSource: Laborsta
M F M F M F M F M F M FSpain France United Kingdom United States Germany Ireland
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
2007 2008 2009 2010
Impact of the crisis in selected countries
Large increase in youth unemployment rates in Spain; little change in Germany.
But in Germany, nearly one-third of those who are unemployed were already unemployed for longer than 12 months; only recently the case in Spain and the UK.
Source: Laborsta Source: Eurostat
2007
Q120
07Q2
2007
Q320
07Q4
2008
Q120
08Q2
2008
Q320
08Q4
2009
Q120
09Q2
2009
Q320
09Q4
2010
Q120
10Q2
2010
Q320
10Q4
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0
Youth unemployment rate (%)
United States GermanySpain United Kingdom
2007
Q120
07Q2
2007
Q320
07Q4
2008
Q120
08Q2
2008
Q320
08Q4
2009
Q120
09Q2
2009
Q320
09Q4
2010
Q120
10Q2
2010
Q320
10Q4
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.0
Share of long-term unemployment in total employment, youth (%)
Germany Spain United Kingdom
Impact of the crisis in selected countries (cont.)
Slight increase in youth part-time employment rates but impact on temporary employment is less obvious.
Part-time employment more relevant for UK youth, but incidence of temporary employment is very low compared to Germany and Spain.
Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat
2007Q
1
2007Q
2
2007Q
3
2007Q
4
2008Q
1
2008Q
2
2008Q
3
2008Q
4
2009Q
1
2009Q
2
2009Q
3
2009Q
4
2010Q
1
2010Q
2
2010Q
3
2010Q
40.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0
Youth part-time employment rate (%)
Germany SpainUnited Kingdom
2007Q
1
2007Q
2
2007Q
3
2007Q
4
2008Q
1
2008Q
2
2008Q
3
2008Q
4
2009Q
1
2009Q
2
2009Q
3
2009Q
4
2010Q
1
2010Q
2
2010Q
3
2010Q
40.0
10.020.030.040.050.060.070.0
Share of temporary employees in total paid employment,
youth (%)
Germany SpainUnited Kingdom
Youth unemployment rates say nothing about discouragement
Thaila
ndJap
an
Korea
, Rep
ublic
of
Austria
Mexico
German
y
Austral
ia
Costa R
ica
Hong K
ong,
China
Ecuad
or
Canad
a
New Zea
land
Morocco
United
State
s
United
Kingd
omFin
land
Sri La
nkaIre
land
Swed
enSp
ain0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.0
Youth unemployment rate, 2009Gap between actual and expected youth labour force (share of youth labour force), 2009
Perc
enta
ge
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends 2011
Impact of the crisis on youth in developing countries
Lack of decent work is nothing new for majority of youth
Dominance of self-employment acts as a buffer, unemployment rates do not significantly increase … increase in vulnerable employment and casual labour in an “increasingly crowded” informal economy
Secondary consequences on education and training, pregnancy and parenthood, health
Longer term impacts on youth entering the labour market during recession Impacts timing of labour market
entry (“hiding out” in education), the smoothness of the transition (multiple spells of unemployment), social norms adopted (mistrust in the State and economic system)
“Lost generation” ?
4. Policy responses to promote decent work for youth
What works?
Key considerations Youth are a heterogeneous group: important to
profile youth for early identification of vulnerabilities
Multi component interventions, well-focused on specific needs of youth and the labour market
1. Addressing skills mismatches Facilitate access to vocational training Entrepreneurship programmes Soft and life skills training programmes Linking employers with educational institutions
What works (cont.)?
2. Addressing slow job growth barriers Active labour market policies Public works programmes Public service programmes
3. Addressing inadequate job matching Employment and intermediation services
4. Addressing poor signalling Skills certification systems
5. Supporting strong labour market information systems
Global Employment Trends for Youth
Steven KapsosInternational Labour [email protected]
UN/DESA Expert Group Meeting on Adolescents, Youth and DevelopmentNew York, 21-22 July 2011