Global Emissions from the Agriculture and Forest Sectors: Status and Trends Indu K Murthy Indian Institute of Science.

Global Emissions from the Agriculture and Forest Sectors: Status and Trends

Indu K MurthyIndian Institute of Science

GHG emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts. Most emission growth is CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes

Total anthropogenic GHG emissions by economic sectors (GtCO2eq/yr)

Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)

• Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use plays a central role for food security and sustainable development.• Land is the critical resource for the

AFOLU sector • Supporting a population of ~7 billion,

• AFOLU activities generate CO2 emissions by sources (e. g., deforestation, peatland drainage) as well as removals by sinks (afforestation, management for soil carbon sequestration) and non-CO2 emissions primarily from agriculture• CH4 from livestock and rice

cultivation• N2O from manure storage and

agricultural soils and biomass burning

Global

Trends in AFOL

U Emissions

Growth Rate of AFOLU Emissions

• Over the period 1990-2010, total AFOLU net emissions increased by 8% • from an average of 7,497 Mt CO2

eq in the 1990s to an average of 8,103 Mt CO2 eq in the 2000s

• This was a result of• Increases in agriculture emissions

by 8%• Decreases in Forest and Other LU

(FOLU) emissions by -14%, due to a slow-down in net forest conversion

• Decreases in FOLU removals by 36%

Contribution by Sub-Sectors

Trends of GHG Emissions fromAgriculture

Annual total non-CO2 GHG emissions from agriculture in 2010 are estimated to be 5.2–5.8 GtCO2eq/yr, comprising for 10–12% of global anthropogenic emissions.

Between 1990 and 2010, agricultural non-CO2 emissions grew by 0.9%/yr, with a slight increase in growth rates after 2005.

According to EDGAR and FAOSTAT, emissions from enteric fermentation are largest emission sources.

US EPA - emissions from agricultural soils are the dominant source.

All databases agree that that enteric fermentation and agricultural soils represent together about 70% of total emissions followed by:• Paddy rice cultivation (9–11%)• Biomass burning (6–12%)• Manure management (7–8%)

Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural soils consist of methane and nitrous oxide produced in sub-sectors• Synthetic fertilizers• Manure applied to soils• Manure left on pasture• Crop residues• Cultivation of organic soils

2011 emissions

(FAO, 2015)

Trends in Agricultural Emissions

Synthetic fertilizers Manure applied to soils

Manure left on soils Crop residue

• 2000-2010Emissions have grown most in AfricaIn both Asia (2.0%/yr) and the Americas emissions grew more slowly

• From 2000 to 2010, cattle contributed the largest share (75% of the total), followed by buffalo, sheep and goats

Emissions grew between 1961 and 2010 from 0.57 to 0.99 GtCO2eq/yr by about 1.1%/yr on an average.

Annual emissions increased by about 10% during 2001-2010

Growth rate was:• Africa - 2.5%/yr• Asia - 2.3%/yr• Americas - 1.2%/yr• Europe – a decrease of -1.2%/yr

Consist of CH4 & N2O from aerobic and anaerobic decomposition processes.

Include emissions by cattle, buffaloes, sheep, goats, camels, horses, ducks, chickens, etc.

In 2011, world total annual GHG emissions from manure management were 361 Mt CO2 eq, (about 7% of total emissions from agriculture)

From 2000 – 2010 most emissions came from Asia, then Europe, and the Americas.

From 1961 to 2010, global emissions from rice cultivation increased with average annual growth rates of 0.4%/yr from 0.37 to 0.52 GtCO2eq/yr. • Largest growth was in Africa (2.7%/yr), followed by Europe and in Asia and the

Americas growth rate was much smaller over the same period (0.4–0.7%/yr). Growth in global emissions has slowed in recent decades, consistent with trends in rice

cultivated area. During 2000–2010, the largest share of emissions (94%) came from developing countries,

with Asia being responsible for almost 90% of the total.

Burning of Savanna• Consists of Open and Woody

Savanna, Open and Closed Shrubland and Grasslands• In 2011, world total annual

emissions from burning of savanna were 287 Mt CO2 eq• ¬5% of total emissions from

agriculture.

• Africa contributes 70% of the total emissions

Over the period 2001-2011, annual emissions remained fairly stable

Annual average emissions growth rates were negative

Burning of crop residues• Produced by the combustion of crop residues burnt in agricultural

fields• In 2011, world total annual emissions from burning of crop residues

were 29 Mt CO2 eq, or only 0.5% of total emissions from agriculture

• Over the period 2001-2011, total annual emissions increased 15%• Asia was the largest emitter (50%), followed by the Americas

(26%), Africa and Europe (both with a 11% share)

Projections for 2030 and 2050 - Agriculture

Source: FAO: World Agriculture towards 2030/2050

Projection of Agricultural production by region

Forests and Other Land Use Emissions

FOLU emissions

• Fluxes resulting directly from anthropogenic FOLU activity are dominated by CO2 fluxes, • Primarily emissions due to deforestation• Also uptake due to reforestation/regrowth

• Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions are small in comparison• mainly from peat degradation through drainage and biomass fires

• FOLU accounted for about a third of anthropogenic CO2

emissions from 1750 to 2011 and 12% of emissions in 2000 to 2009

Breakdown of mean annual CO2 fluxes from deforestation and forest management in tropical countries (GtCO2/yr)

• In 2010, world total annual GHG emissions from net forest conversion • 3,738 Mt CO2 eq.• Represents 70% of

total emissions from agriculture sector, and less than half of total emissions from AFOLU.

• Emissions in non-Annex I countries represented more than 90% of the total.

FOLU emissions

Continental Share

Sectoral Contribution

Trends in Net Forest Conversion and Forest Carbon Sinks

Net Forest Conversion Net Emission/Removals and Forest Net Removals by Decade

Projections for Deforestation

Global net deforestation• Around 13 million ha/year

Net global change in forest area: • -5.2 million ha/year

South America: net loss of 4.0  million ha/year

Africa: net loss of 3.4 million ha/year

Asia: net gain of 2.2 million ha/year

Large scale afforestation reported by China

High rates of net loss in many countries in South and Southeast Asia.

Source: FAO,2015: http://www.fao.org/forestry/fra/85504/en/

Both commercial and subsistence agriculture have been reported as main drivers of global deforestation (FRA, 2010, Hosonuma et al 2012)• In Africa and Tropical Asia, this 

accounts for one third of deforestation.

Summary

• The AFOLU sector is responsible for just under a quarter (~10 – 12 GtCO2eq/yr) of anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions from livestock, soil and nutrient management. • Annual GHG emissions from agricultural production in 2000 – 2010 were

estimated at 5.0 – 5.8 GtCO2eq/yr • Annual GHG flux from land use and land-use change activities accounted for

approximately 4.3 – 5.5 GtCO2eq/yr

• Since AR4, emissions from the AFOLU sector have remained similar but the share of anthropogenic emissions has decreased to 24% (in 2010), largely due to increases in emissions in the energy sector.• In spite of a large range across global Forestry and Other Land Use

(FOLU) flux estimates, most approaches indicate a decline in FOLU carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions over the most recent years, largely due to decreasing deforestation rates and increased afforestation.• Leveraging the mitigation potential in the sector is extremely important

in meeting emission reduction targets.

Mitigation Potential of the AFOLU Sector

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

up to 20 USD up to 50 USD up to 100 USD

Mt

CO2-

eq./

yr (2

030)

Carbon price/tCO2-eq.

Forestry (all measures)

Manure management

Livestock

Restore degraded lands

Restore cultivated organic soils

Grazing land management

Setaside, LUC & agroforestry

Rice management

Cropland management

Total mitigation potential for AFOLU sector is estimated to be ~3 to ~7.2 GtCO2-eq./yr in 2030 at 20 and 100 US$/tCO2.-eq., respectively

Regional Differences in Forestry Options, shown as a Proportion of Total Potential