The Global Earthquake Model Current status in the Caribbean and Central America Region Julio Antonio García Peláez Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale, Trieste, Italy GEM Semi-Annual Meeting, 11 th – 12 th December 2012
Jan 23, 2015
The Global Earthquake ModelCurrent status in the Caribbean and Central America Region
Julio Antonio García PeláezIstituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale, Trieste, Italy GEM Semi-Annual Meeting, 11th – 12th December 2012
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
1. Introduction
2. The GEM Caribbean Regional Programme
(GCRP)
3. Contrains and challenges
4. Works in progress
5. Critical issues and possible solutions
Outline
The Caribbean Plate Context
Complex region with a variety of plate boundary interactions:‣Subduction in the Lesser Antilles and Central America‣Major transcurrent faults on northern and southern boundaries‣Sea floor spreading in the Cayman Trough
Present day tectonics map modified from Pindell&Kendall (2009)
The Caribbean Plate Context
Circum-Caribbean Seismicity(medium and large events)
ISC Bulletin (1990-2011)(1990-2011)
(1500-1903)(1500-1903)
Courtesy of the GEH project
The Caribbean Context
‣ The Caribbean-Central America region is susceptible to medium-low frequency (high impact) earthquake and volcanic hazards, in a wide spatial extent, with limited landmass (insular Caribbean) and a particularly complex seismotectonic framework
‣ Risk perception in general is fatalistic (...are acts of God) or "optimistic" (We are immune to..., It will not happen during my...)
‣ Therefore, not enough has been done to preserve populations and assets against natural hazards
‣ Consequently, the sustainability of development in the region will be seriously challenged in the near future if this approach is maintained
The GEM Caribbean Regional Programme (GCRP)
January 2011- The GEM Foundation worked together with The Seismic Research Centre
(SRC) of The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, to promote the GEM vision in
the Caribbean,May 2011- A 3-day Kick-off
workshop, hosted by the
University of the West Indies,
formally launched the GEM
CRP.
Experts and stakeholders (over
70) from nine Caribbean
countries
participated: Trinidad & Tobago, Barbados, Cayman Islands, Costa Rica, Dominica,
Cuba, Jamaica, Martinique and Venezuela.
Constraints and challenges
‣ Inadequate human resource capacity for seismic hazard/risk assessment in the region to accomplish the standards proposed by GEM
‣ Lack of a regional vision in order to face a common problem: disaster risk reduction
‣ Several national, regional and international organizations/agencies are currently working in this region not always in a coordinated and efficient way
‣ The available data are limited and not readily accessible and sharing information is a critical step in the region
‣ Dissemination problems (lessons learned, main results of projects…)
The GEM Caribbean Regional Programme (GCRP)
Country Institution
Haití National Observatory of the Environment and Vulnerability
Rep. Dominicana Autonomic University of República Dominicana
Rep. Dominicana Geological Survey of República Dominicana
Puerto Rico PRSN, University of Mayagüez
Expanding the GEM CRP activities in the Insular Caribbean
Thanks! Maria Belen Benito
The GEM Caribbean Regional Programme (GCRP)Expanding the GEM CRP activities in Central America
‣ GEM have started a strategic collaboration with the SESDS group (lead by Maria Belen Benito) of the Technical University of Madrid, Spain.
‣ Recently, SESDS and local experts from Central America carried the most recent PSHA study for the region, with the support of NORAD.Country InstitutionGuatemala University Mariano Gálvez
El Salvador Servicio Nacional de Estudios Territoriales
Costa Rica Instituto Costarricense de ElectricidadPanamá University of Panamá
INGEOMINAS / INGV
RESIS II / UPM
CENAIS/OGS
FUNVISISUWI-CRS
NOEV / UPMUASD/RD-GS
PRSN
GEM regional cross-RG collaboration effort
IdentificationOpen
DiscussionSelection
New knowledge
Global Comp.Contributions
Discussion
Proposals for harmonization
Working together – PSHA Harmonization schema
Identification and selection process
UWI/Eucentre (2011)
GEO-TER (2002)
Ordaz (2008)
RESIS II (2008)
Discussion
the zones are “overlapped” around a depth of 50-60 km
Country Name I d_ OQ Tecreg_ OQ Top Bottom Mexico CHSI1 src54 Subduction Interface 25 120
Costa Rica
CSI11 src42 Subduction Interface 26 63 CSI12 src43 Subduction Interface 26 51 CSI13 src44 Subduction Interface 26 52 CSP14 src50 Subduction Intra-Slab 40 177 CSP15 src51 Subduction Intra-Slab 40 155 CSP16 src52 Subduction Intra-Slab 40 82
Guatemala GSI09 src38 Subduction Interface 26 70 GSP10 src47 Subduction Intra-Slab 61 200
Nicaragua NSI15 src40 Subduction Interface 26 70 NSI16 src41 Subduction Interface 26 70 NSP17 src49 Subduction Intra-Slab 61 200
Panama PSI09 src45 Subduction Interface 26 50 PSI10 src46 Subduction Interface 50 50 PSP11 src53 Subduction Intra-Slab 50 100
El Salvador SSI05 src39 Subduction Interface 26 70 SSP06 src48 Subduction Intra-Slab 61 200
RESIS II subduction model. In blue: interface subduction zones, in black: in-slab subduction zones.
Differences between the models
Testing the models with the OpenQuake engine
Critical issues and possible solutions (1)
‣ We need to increase our human resource capacities - More training and knowledge transfer, please!
‣ We should increase the participation of stakeholders of the region or abroad - French Departments (BRGM/CDSA/Univ. of Guyana).
‣ We should establish synergies with existing and planned projects in the region - Leverage resources and knowledge
‣ We need to create a regional culture of open data and sharing information and knowledge with transparency
Critical issues and possible solutions (2)
‣ We must break down barriers of any kind (political, social, language) and work together – faster, please!
‣ At the moment there is limited interaction with experts in the region for what concerns risk - we hope to change this in the near future (IStructE)
‣ We need to re-define priority proposals and projects taking into account our needs, limited funds and the real possibility to realize them – right now!
INGEOMINAS / INGV
RESIS II / UPM
CENAIS/OGS
FUNVISISUWI-CRS
NOEV / UPMUASD/RD-GS
PRSN
Julio Antonio Garcia: [email protected] - [email protected]
Thanks ! Gracias !