Global direct-to-Home (dtH) markets - · PDF fileGlobal direct-to-Home (dtH) markets 4th edition Northern Sky Research, LLC ... NSR’s previous DTH report found that there was “No

Global direct-to-Home(dtH) markets4th edition

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B r o a d c a s t i n g & D i g i t a l M e d i a

H y b r i d & E m e r g i n g

A p p l i c a t i o n s

C o m m e r c i a l S p a c e

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The foundation of NSR’s business is the ability to

continually help clients stay ahead of the curve

and anticipate trends before it is too late to react.

Whether it is a market research report covering a new

application area or a unique consulting service tailored

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making in all regions.

S AT E L L i T E C O M M U N i C AT i O N S

From spacecraft manufacturing

and launching to the

applications

that drive capacity

supply and demand

B R O A D C A S T i N g & D i g i TA L M E D i AVideo is the core and

foundation of the industry,

typically accounting for

60% or more of total

revenues

H y B R i D & E M E R g i N g A P P L i C AT i O N S

NSR’s leading edge

coverage has shown that

satellite is more than ever

intertwined with the fabric of

terrestrial networks

C O M M E R C i A L S PA C EBeyond telecommunictions

services, Commercial Space

presents promising opportunities

for the space industry

r e p o r t d e s c r i p t i o nDirect-to-Home television over the past year has seen

both consolidation and introduction of new platforms,

the ever-present threat of terrestrial solutions, and an

economic recession that continues to impact subscriber’s

monthly budgets. Amongst these factors, DTH platforms

have continued to perform, with over 140 million

subscribers accessing over 16,900 channels in 2010,

reaching all corners of the globe.

In this new and completely updated report, platform,

subscriber, channel and revenue base data for each

country are collated over a year-round secondary research

process and complemented with primary research that

contacted over 200 individuals from around the globe.

Combined with research into the DTH addressable

market in each country, these figures form the basis of

NSR’s bottom-up research methodology.

Again in the 4th Edition, NSR segments the base

data into categories such as Standard Definition (SD),

High Definition (HD) and DVR services. Key platform

parameters such as ARPU, churn and penetration are

forecasted through 2020, giving insight into the future

of the DTH satellite market. Finally, NSR goes beyond

the numbers to give the reader bottom line reasoning

behind the raw data.

NEW in the 4th Edition

The 4th Edition of NSR’s Global Direct-to-Home Markets

study is built on the collation of key country specific

insights. Interviews have been conducted with every

major DTH platform in nations as diverse as Indonesia,

India, Poland, South Africa, Germany, France, Brazil,

Mexico and the United States. This gives the reader not

just a summary of regional trends but also highlights the

nuances of running a Pay TV operation in key countries.

DTH platforms may have capitalized on the Pay TV

resilience seen throughout the economic recession by

adding subscribers, improving content and lowering

package prices and upfront hardware costs. NSR crunches

the numbers presented by the DTH industry and includes

a comprehensive financial analysis in this fourth edition

of our DTH report.

new in the 4th edition• Analysis of Key Country Trends and Addressable Market• Business and Financial Analysis, by Region• Analysis of Market Trends, Drivers, and Restraints, by Region• Assessment of impact from OTT, DTT and HTS capacity• Forecasts for SAC and Net New Sub

extensive market ForecastsExpanding its forecast portfolio with every edition, NSR presents even more

parameters in the 4th Edition:

• Platform numbers are forecasted along with segmentation by Basic, HD, DVR and 3D services.

• subscriber Forecasts are segmented into those for Basic, HD and DVR services. Additional parameters such as net new subscribers, churn and Penetration are forecasted.

• channel Forecasts are segmented into SD, HD and 3D channels. • revenue Forecasts are segmented into those arising from Basic, HD and

dVr services. average revenue Per User (ARPU) & subscriber acquisition cost (SAC) is also forecasted according to the same classification of services.

• transponder Utilization for channels on DTH platforms.• Included in this report is acomparison of Forecasts from NSR’s global

DTH Markets, 3rd and 2nd Edition reports that allows the reader to compare results from the previous two editions.

Each of these figures is forecasted for a period of ten years from 2011 until 2020 for each of the ten regions across the world. A complete analysis of the figures in the Excel data file is contained in the body of the report.

Forecast data across all regions (2011-2020)

• Channels - SD, HD, 3D

• Platforms• Subscribers• Revenues• ARPU• SAC• Churn• Penetration• NetNewSubscribers• TransponderDemand• 3rd&2ndEditionComparison

r e g i o n s c o v e r e dNorth America

Central America and Caribbean

South America

Western Europe

Central Europe and Russia

Middle East and North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

East Asia

South East Asia

r e p o r t s p e c i f i c s

nsr coverage areas

e x e c u t i v e s u m m a r yIn a troubled global economy, DTH platforms continued to expand channel offerings, grow their subscriber base and increase subscription revenues. Over the past year, DTH platforms increased subscription revenues by nearly $6 Billion by launching aggressive growth strategies into lower-income households, all while global disposal income levels reached record lows. DTH subscribers increased by over 9 million (130M in 2009 to 139M in 2010), in part because of these new growth strategies. DTH platforms increased channel offerings by nearly 2,000 channels in 2010, using 950 TPEs of Ku-band capacity. As more households are living paycheck-to-paycheck in developed markets of North America and Western Europe, DTH platforms across the globe might have discovered the right combination of package pricing and offerings to continue growth projections.

Report Overview and Key FindingsNSR’s previous DTH report found that there was “No Universal Truth” to the DTH market. This year, the saying is, “There is Not One Universal Truth – there are 3.” exclusive content, HD/DVR Services, and pressures on disposable income are the largest factors influencing the size and shape of the DTH market.

By 2020, nearly 47% of DTH subscribers will have HD subscription packages and set-top boxes (STBs). Digital Video Recorders (DVRs) will account for nearly 35% of subscribers. In North America, and Western Europe, we are already seeing Over-the-Top (OTT) services such as Hulu, YouTube, Netflix, and BBC’s iPlayer finding themselves into the living room through an assortment of IP-enabled devices. Already, DTH platforms in these markets are making plans to bring these services alongside paid content and into the STB. Most notably, DISH Network in 2011 acquired the OTT service Blockbuster MoviePass, and has launched the service on its advanced DVR STB to subscribers in North America. It is expected that other platforms in North America and Western Europe will announce similar offerings in the short term.

Increases in HD/DVR subscriptions through 2020 will boost ARPU levels for DTH platforms and satisfy an Internet-enabled generation of subscribers. In 2010, nearly all regions of the world had HD services, and the remaining regions are just launching or plan on launching HD services by 2013. By 2020, all regions of the world will have DVR services. As these new services mature, subscribers will be drawn into the content ecosystem of DTH providers through recorded content on DVR STBs and access to other subscriber-exclusive services. The inertial energy of all this content, by high ARPU subscribers, will help reduce churn amongst this valuable subset of subscribers, and help bolster subscription revenues.

However, acquiring content subscribers desire continues to remain a major component of operating expenses for DTH platforms. Throughout 2010, DIRECTV in North America played a brinkmanship game with content providers as they faced increasing content acquisition costs. Similar stories continue into 2011 in the region, and as exclusive content becomes more critical to developing loyal subscribers, this trend will only intensify. Developing markets have yet to experience significant non-sports content acquisition challenges, but it seems the fate of all markets with robust distribution paths that content holders demand more for exclusive access.

Although exclusive access to drama, news, and foreign language are becoming important to subscribers, sports-centric content continues to be the most popular genre. Similarly, developing and developed market tell the same story when acquiring exclusive access to sports content - It’s expensive… and getting more expensive. Even in the under-developed markets of Sub-Saharan Africa, DTH platforms report acquiring sports content as a significant source of operating expense increases.

With DTH platforms facing increasing costs of doing business, households throughout the world are continuing to tighten budgets. As their disposable incomes continue to be minimal, television household growth has stalled, while subscriber churn increases. In the developed DTH markets of North America and Western Europe, household growth has remained minimal as young people face hardships securing employment, move in with friends or family, and household foreclosure rates remain above market averages for the near-term. These all contribute to a slowdown in new household growth, increasing competition amongst DTH, cable, IPTV, and terrestrial broadcasting. In developing markets, households are generally unable to purchase television sets, reducing household growth in the near-term there too. That said, economic conditions continue to show signs of improvement around the globe, with unemployment figures in the United States reducing little-by-little.

Those who have a television are facing decisions on if they can afford to keep their existing Pay-TV offering. DTH platforms have responded well to pricing signs, adjusting subscription prices and package offerings to reduce the income effect in developed markets (and sometimes attracting cable subscribers in the process.) In developing markets such as India, a large base of pre-paid subscribers and a large number of DTH platforms as of 2010 makes it hard to significantly reduce package pricing beyond current levels.

Bottom LineDTH platforms must continue to remain vigilant to keep operating expenses under control, monitor packages and pricing to keep and attract a stagnant pool of television households, and develop synergies with an expanding set of OTT services. Below are the key trends, drivers, and restraints facing the global DTH market:

Continuation of • poor economic conditions in important DTH markets puts pressure on ARPU and subscriber uptake. Near-term gains in subscribers in emerging markets could present a risk to subscription revenues in the future if DTH platforms cannot offer innovative packages and pricing to retain low-income subscribers.OTT services are coming• . By 2020, nearly all markets will have access to OTT services. DTH platforms need to have clear plans as to how to integrate these offerings to complement their subscription packages. Although it remains unclear how seriously ‘cord cutting’ will impact subscription figures, subscribers could still view OTT integration as an important feature.Content costs are rising.• Across the globe, exclusive access to sports programming continues to rise, and non-sporting programming is following suit in most markets. South Asia, South America, Central and Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia will be •important growth markets for the DTH industry. Western Europe and North America will show steady growth rates in terms of numbers (although new acquisitions of a streaming/DVD-by-Mail video provider and terrestrial RF Spectrum by DISH Network in 2011 should be something to watch). Central America and Caribbean, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Middle East & North Africa face significant long-term issues in regards to large bases of pre-paid subscribers, extreme poverty, and lack of adoption respectively.HD and DVR services will contribute most significantly to ARPU levels• in individual markets, as uptake increases on a global basis.

NSR is a leading international telecom market research and consulting firm with a mission to provide unique insights & assist organizations in strategic decision making.

With an experienced group of analysts located in all regions, NSR is a premier global market research and consulting company.

NSR’s products and services cover all analytical aspects of each market, including both business and technical issues. A solid understanding of both issues is critical to understanding the current and future state of any market, so our team and offerings are built to tackle these stringent requirements. it is through this approach that NSR has assisted companies in many segments and regions to successfully plan for growth.

in addition to both products and services, NSR is often quoted as an expert in many leading publications such as The Wall Street Journal, New york Times, Financial Times, Washington Post, Time Magazine, Business Week, The Economist, CNN, Forbes, Network World, international Herald Tribune, Total Telecom, Asia Times and Space News. NSR analysts are also frequently asked to chair and participate in telecommunications conferences around the world.

NSR clients range from start-ups to market leaders in various sectors of the telecommunications industry. The common theme across our clientele is the requirement for unbiased, actionable analysis that provides each company with the intelligence it cannot find elsewhere. it is this approach that has enabled NSR to stay ahead of the curve across all industries covered.

NSR is focused on emerging applications and services in the Satellite Communications, Broadcasting & Digital Media, Hybrid & Emerging Applications and Commercial Space markets in all regions.

satellite communicationsFrom spacecraft manufacturing and launching to the applications that drive capacity supply and demand, the Satellite Communications research practice addresses the heart of the satellite market. NSR investigates every link in the market chain in order to provide an in-depth and granular analysis of all demand drivers and restraints that customers need in order to choose a future direction.

our goal is to help manager’s worldwide

plan for growth based on unbiased, actionable

intelligence and analysis

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a b o u t n s r

n s r c o v e r a g e a r e a s

b r o a d c a s t i n g & d i g i t a l m e d i aVideo is the core and foundation of the industry, typically accounting for 60% or more of total revenues, while other digital media applications show some of the industry’s fastest growth rates. NSR’s extensive coverage of this important market leverages its geographically diverse analyst pool to capture the regional differences of video traffic and digital media applications around the world. By analyzing growth in video channels and feeds, in addition to location of emerging video platforms and applica-tions in each region, NSR is able to provide detailed market insight for our customers.

H y b r i d & e m e r g i n g a p p l i c a t i o n sNSR’s leading edge coverage of new hybrid and emerging applications has shown that satellite is more than ever intertwined with the fabric of terrestrial networks. By analyzing how convergence impacts competition and cooperation between these two worlds, this practice area helps unlock new growth potential for our customers.

commercial spaceBeyond telecommunications services, Commercial Space presents promising opportunities for the space industry. Ranging from all aspects of earth observation services to navigation and positioning services and government space programs, NSR presents a wide-ranging analysis of demand for these applications as well as the all important aspect of public spending for space activities.

NSR is a global telecommunications consulting firm with vast experience in areas like Satellite Communications, Broadcasting & Digital Media, Hybrid & Emerging Applications ,and Commercial Space . NSR’s consulting expertise has played a pivotal role in the board rooms of many large and dynamic telecommunications organizations across the region/sector. We help organizations in making the right business decisions with a focus on delivering the financial results.

Our consulting services are designed to suit your organization’s requirement in terms of quantitative and qualitative research drawing upon our collective experience of 100 years in the industry. Our analysis and insights help you focus on challenging issues and aid you in channeling your resources towards sustainable business strategies.

To know more about our Consulting Services please visit our website www.nsr.com.

n s r ’s c o n s u l t i n g s e r v i c e s

r e s e a r c h r e p o r t to p i c s gov’t and Military Satellite Communications

Broadband Satellite Markets

Machine to Machine (M2M) and SCADA

Mobile Satellite Services

Wireless Backhaul via Satellite

Satellite Capacity Supply & Demand

iPTV via Satellite

Advanced Satellite Coding and Modulation

Direct-to-Home (DTH)

Digital Signage

Mobile TV and Mobile Video

Earth Observation

High Throughput Satellites (HTS)

Remote Sensing

Video Broadcasting

and more...

Place your order for the research reportson above topics at www.nsr.com

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