Global crises in a resource-constrained, multipolar world

Global crises in a resource-constrained, multipolar world

John HumphreyGlobalisation Team

Outline

1. Looming, long-term crises

2. New powers and multipolarity

3. Equity

4. Timeframes

5. Governance

But food security is only part of a ‘Perfect Storm’ of global events

Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)

Energy

Water Increased demand

30% by 2030

(IFPRI)

FoodIncreased demand

50% by 2030

(FAO)

Climate Change

1. Increasing population

2. Increasing levels of urbanisation

3. The rightful goal to alleviate poverty

4. Climate Change

John BeddingtonChief Scientific AdvisorUK Government

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

China India United States Japan Germany

US

$ (

Tri

llio

ns

at 2

00

3 P

ric

es

)GDP Projections, 2050

Source: Goldman Sachs, Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050

Distribution of Increase in Glohbal GDP, 1990-2005, by Region/Country

(PPP, %)

USA

China

India

Rest of Developing Asia

Japan

Other OECD

MENA

LAC

ECA

Source: David Dollar, presentation to GDN, Beijing,Jan 2007

USA

China

India

Rest ofDev Asia

Other OECD

1985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720080

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

15.1

35.3

84.9

64.7

Shares of World Trade in Goods and Services1985-2008

Non OECD

OECD - To-tal

Per

Cen

t

Financial crisis

Accelerates convergence continuing growth in rising powers possible stagnation in Europe

Heightens the need for global governance to be more inclusive – G20 not G8

Undermines West’s claim for economic superiority

Increases confidence and assertiveness of rising powers

Total GHG Emissions, 2000, MtCO2 equivalent

United States

China EU-25 Russia India Japan0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Incremental GHG emissions 2004-30 (% of global total)

NAFTA China OECD-Europe Russia India OECD-Asia0

10

20

30

40

50

Pe

r C

en

t

GHG Emissions, 2000, per capita

United States

China EU-25 Russia India Japan0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Cumulative CO2 Emissions, 1900-2005

United States China EU 25 Russian Federation

India Japan0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Mil

lio

n m

etri

c to

ns

of

CO

2

•The Observer, Sunday 7 March 2010

How food and water are driving a 21st-century African land grabAn Observer investigation reveals how rich countries faced by a global food shortage now farm an area double the size of the UK to guarantee supplies for their citizens

A woman tends vegetables at a giant Saudi-financed farm in Ethiopia.….Nestling below an escarpment of the Rift Valley, the development is far from finished, but the plastic and steel structure already stretches over 20 hectares – the size of 20 football pitches.

Time

Climate or weather?

Long term stresses in relation to acute shocks

How much are current volatilities in food and energy prices indicators of long-term trends?

2030 versus today

Bringing the future into the present

Governance (1)

The Beddington strategy defragment – in multiple crises focus on risk and uncertainty place value on the future – foresight

Governance (2) Institutions

increase “bandwidth” – thicker relations to build trust and understanding (repeat transactions)

aggregate actors – not 180 countries Regions? Types? Caucuses?

more authoritative knowledge – as in IPCC

strengthen G20 a Secretariat, continuity of chairing, more advanced

preparation

promote organisation of other states, rather than obstruct – cede power to make organisations work

focus on fairness rather than power

think about penalties for non-cooperators

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1.80%

8.89%

0.52%1.10%

11.41%

8.01%

Total Merchandise Trade (% of World Exports)

China

India

US