Global Climate Change Consequences for Cerrado Tree Species Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira Centro de Referência em Informação Ambiental - CRIA.

Global Climate Change Consequences for Cerrado Tree Species

Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira

Centro de Referência em Informação Ambiental - CRIA

Biodiversity Consequences of Global Climate Change

In this study we applied a technique that can be called ecological niche modeling to generate predictive models of species’ potential future geographic distributions.

Climate Change and Biodiversity

• Climate change involve a complex combination of warming, augmented climatic variability, extreme event, etc.

• Biodiversity consequences are unknown, although are thought to be potentially serious involving drastic reductions and extinctions for many species.

Methodology• HadCM2 General Circulation Model – two scenarios

used– HHGSDX50 - 0.5%/yr CO2, sulphate aerosol forcing – HHGGAX50 - 1%/yr CO2, no sulfate aerosols forcing

• 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution• Nine base environmental coverages• 162 species – all trees with >30 points (Projeto de

Cooperação Técnica Conservação e Manejo da Biodiversidade do Bioma Cerrado – EMBRAPA Cerrados – UnB – Ibama/DFID e RBGE/Reino Unido database)

Ecological Niche Modeling and Predicting Geographic Distributions

Geo

grap

hy

E

colo

gy

Distributional points

GARP

Precipitation

Tem

pera

ture

Ecological niche model

Distributional prediction

Changed climate projection

Projectclimate change

Methodology• Build ecological models for each species using

GARP based on present-day coverages• Predict and characterize present-day geographic

distribution of each species• Adjust geographic coverages according to

projections of large-scale models of global climate change

• Project distributions of each species onto adjusted geographic coverages

• Compare and contrast present-day and projected distributions across the entire suite of species

Present Temperature Regime

Projected Changes in Temperature

Present Precipitation Regime

Projected Precipitation Changes

Atlapetes virenticeps Distributional Points

Atlapetes virenticeps:Rule set for prediction

0 r 0.50 0.99 28.55 0.35 0.504IF - Elev*0.26 r + Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 rTHEN Taxon=BACKGROUND

4 r 0.53 0.86 23.58 0.51 0.314IF + Elev*0.32 r - Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 rTHEN Taxon=PRESENT

1 r 0.49 0.91 26.32 0.39 0.122IF - Elev*0.02 r + Precip*0.28 r - Temp*0.30 rTHEN Taxon=BACKGROUND

3 m 0.49 0.85 23.73 0.44 0.028IF Elev=[1482,3360]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 4]rTHEN Taxon=PRESENT

6 d 0.49 0.86 20.90 0.33 0.019IF Elev=[1937,3241]rTHEN Taxon=PRESENT

2 d 0.49 0.85 23.78 0.44 0.013IF Elev=[ 0,2727]r AND Precip=[ 4, 9]rTHEN Taxon=BACKGROUND

5 d 0.48 0.83 22.11 0.41 0.000IF Elev=[1640,2866]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 5]rTHEN Taxon=PRESENT

Atlapetes virenticeps Predicted Geographic Distribution

Atlapetes virenticeps:Rule set for prediction

0 r 0.50 0.99 28.55 0.35 0.504IF - Elev*0.26 r + Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 rTHEN Taxon=BACKGROUND

4 r 0.53 0.86 23.58 0.51 0.314IF + Elev*0.32 r - Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 rTHEN Taxon=PRESENT

1 r 0.49 0.91 26.32 0.39 0.122IF - Elev*0.02 r + Precip*0.28 r - Temp*0.30 rTHEN Taxon=BACKGROUND

3 m 0.49 0.85 23.73 0.44 0.028IF Elev=[1482,3360]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 4]rTHEN Taxon=PRESENT

6 d 0.49 0.86 20.90 0.33 0.019IF Elev=[1937,3241]rTHEN Taxon=PRESENT

2 d 0.49 0.85 23.78 0.44 0.013IF Elev=[ 0,2727]r AND Precip=[ 4, 9]rTHEN Taxon=BACKGROUND

5 d 0.48 0.83 22.11 0.41 0.000IF Elev=[1640,2866]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 5]rTHEN Taxon=PRESENT

Atlapetes virenticeps Model Projected on Adjusted Coverages

Atlapetes virenticeps Before vs. After

Examples of predictions of present (1961-1990) and future (2055) distributions of Acosmium subelegans

Area projected to remain habitable in 2055 (AX scenario)

Area projected to remain habitable in 2055 (DX scenario)

Examples of predictions of present (1961-1990) and future (2055) distributions of cerrado tree species

Qualea parvifolia

Rapanea guianensis

Patterns of predicted species richness among the 162 species of cerrado trees analyzed in the core

distributional area of cerrado at the present (1961-1990)

HHGSDX50 climate change scenario = 144 species

HHGGAX50 climate change scenario = 106 species

Patterns of predicted species richness in a climate change scenario

Consequences for the 162 tree species analysed

• DX Scenario:– 18 species were predicted to end up without

habitable areas (extinction in cerrado).– 91 species were predicted to decline by >90% in

potential distributional area in the cerrado region.• AX Scenario:

– 56 were predicted to end up without habitable areas in the cerrado region (extinction in cerrado).

– 123 species were predicted to decline by >90% in potential distributional area in the cerrado region.

0

25

50

75

100

0 25 50 75 100

Percent of distributional area (DX scenario)

Per

cent

of d

istri

butio

nal a

rea

(AX

sce

nario

)

Relationship of severity of prediction of climate change consequences in the HHGSDX50 and HHGGAX50 scenarios.

No dispersal

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75

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125

150

175

200

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200

HHGSDX50

HH

GG

AX50

Mexican Birds, Mammals, Butterflies

Canada Butterflies – Current Species Richness

Compare Maximum Species Richness:

Present with HSDX 2020

Present

2020

Steller’s Jay before

Mountains vs Flatlands

Steller’s Jay afterPygmy Nuthatch beforePygmy Nuthatch after

Baird’s Sparrow before

Mountains vs Flatlands

Baird’s Sparrow afterLesser Prairie-Chicken beforeLesser Prairie-Chicken after

Mountains vs Flatlands

Percent Change - No Dispersal

0

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8

10

12

14

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Percent change

Freq

uenc

y

Centroid Distance - No Dispersal

0

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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Distance (km)Fr

eque

ncy

Climate Change and Biodiversity• Species respond in manners that are quite

individual to climate change ... General tendencies are not absolute

• Seriousness of effects varies drastically among regions

• Effects appear to be in general worse in flatlands regions, and not as serious in montane regions

• Conservation implications remain almost completely unexplored ...

Hotspot of Predicted Species Richness among Cerrado Tree Species at Present

Prioritization of areas for conservation in the face of changing climates, based on DX scenario of

global climate change

87 species38 species

7 species

6 species

3 species

Prioritization of areas for conservation in the face of changing climates, based on AX scenario of

global climate change

63 species 32 species

8 species

Hotspot of Predicted Species Richness among Cerrado Tree Species at Present

HHGSDX50 climate change scenario = 145 species

HHGGAX50 climate change scenario = 108 species

Patterns of predicted species richness in a climate change scenario

São Paulo Museum of Cerrado Tree Diversity????

Lightest red = 81-120 sepcies

Light red = 121 – 140 species

Red = > 140 species

Black = patches of the cerrado vegetation type

Acknowledgments

Many thanks to the team of researchers involved in the Projeto de Cooperação Técnica Conservação e Manejo da Biodiversidade do Bioma Cerrado – EMBRAPA Cerrados – UnB – Ibama/DFID e RBGE/Reino Unido for their generosity in making occurrence data available to us.

Prof. Dr. A. Townsend Peterson - Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center, The University of Kansas, to help with modelling.