Global Climate Change Alliance: Intra-ACP Programme Training Module Mainstreaming Climate Change

An initiative of the ACP Group of States funded by the European Union

Global Climate Change Alliance: Intra-ACP Programme

Training ModuleMainstreaming Climate Change

Module 1 - Understanding the basics of climate change science

Ms Isabelle MamatySenior Expert

Climate Support Facility

Understanding the basics of climate change

Learning objectives: o To enhance knowledge on climate change and its

potential impactso To enhance knowledge on impacts of climate

change at regional and sectoral levels

Expected outcomes: o Increased knowledge on the causes of climate

change o Increased knowledge on the effect of greenhouse

gases and their main sources 2

Is climate change real?

IPCC 4th Assessment Report:o “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is

now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level”.

Observed trends:o Recent years warmest on recordo Accelerating increase in global surface temperature and

ocean temperatureo Accelerating rise in sea level3

Some observations: trends in

global mean temperature

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Source: IPCC (2007b) 4th Assessment Report,

WG I – FAQ 3.1 Fig. 1

Observations and projections: global sea level change

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Source: IPCC (2007b) 4th

Assessment Report, WG I – FAQ 5.1 Fig. 1

Observations: intensity of cyclones

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Worldwide: %age of Category 1 cyclone (blue curve), sum of Category 2 and 3 (green curve), sum of category 4 and 5 (red curve) on 5 years period. Dashed lines are averages for each category from 1970 to 2004 (Source: Petit & Prudent 2008, p. 42, from Webster et al 2005)

What are the causes of climate change?

Natural variation is an inherent feature of the climate (e.g. driven by solar cycles, earth orbit, volcanoes)

But anthropogenic emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are a major cause of the changes now being observed

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The greenhouse effect

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Source: WWF/IPCC, http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/

What are the main greenhouse gases?

By decreasing order of abundance:owater vapour (H2O)

o carbon dioxide (CO2)

omethane (CH4)

o nitrous oxide (N2O)

o ozone (O3)

o chlorofluorocarbons (CFC)o other halogenated compounds (i.e. gases containing fluorine, chlorine,

bromine or iodine) (e.g. hydrofluorocarbons – HFC, sulphur hexafluoride – SF6)

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Evolution of GHG concentrations

Source: IPCC (2007b) 4th

Assessment Report, WG I – FAQ 2.1 Fig. 1

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Globally, what are the main sources of GHG emissions?

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Source: Herzog (2005) – World Resources Institute

What are the main consequences?

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Biophysical impacts

Changes in t°Changes in rainfall

patternsShifts in seasons

More frequent or severe storms, floods, droughts

Raised sea levelErosion, desertification

Changes in water quality/availability

Changes in ecosystemsBiodiversity loss

Disease & pest outbreaks, ...

Socioeconomic impacts

Damage to or destruction of infrastructure

Reduced food security, malnutrition

Economic disruption, loss of livelihoods, social

disruptionIncreased mortality and

morbidity Reduced availability of

hydropowerConflicts, population displacement, human

migrations, ...

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Lagoon, Benin

Impacts of climate change (1)

Flood, Fiji

Degraded mangroves, Guyana, Limpopo dry season, Mozambique

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Impacts of climate change (2)

Solomon Island

Coastal erosion, VanuatuDrought, Senegal

Coastal erosion, Benin

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Regional impacts of climate change in Africa

By 2020o Decreased in agricultural production, crop yieldso Water stress due to climate change for 75 to 250 million of

people (particularly in northern and southern Africa)

By 2050 o Sea-level rise in coastal areas by 2050o large part of the western Sahel and southern-central Africa

are likely to become unsuitable to malaria transmission

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Regional impacts of climate change in Asia and Central Asia

By 2020o Risk of hunger increase from 7% to 14% (additional 49 million people)o 10% increase in agricultural irrigation demand in arid and semi arid region of

east Asia due to 1°C increase in temperature

By 2050o Risk of hunger: additional 132 million peopleo Decrease in fresh water availability by 2050o Greatest risk of increased flooding from the sea and in some mega deltas,

flooding from the riverso Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated

with floods and droughtso Pressure on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid

urbanisation, industrialisation and economic development : up to 50% of Asia’s total biodiversity is at risk

o 24% to 30% of coral reefs may be lost in the next 10 to 30 years16

Regional impacts of climate change in Latin America and Caribbean

By 2020 o Generalised reductions in rice yields and increases in soybean yields o Risk of hunger for additional 5 million peopleo Water stress: additional 7 to 77 million peopleo Heat stress, malaria, dengue fever, cholera and other water-borne

diseases

By 2050o Desertification and salinisation projected to affect 50% of agricultural landso Risk of hunger for additional 26 million peopleo Gradual replacement of tropical forest by savannah in eastern Amazoniao Risk of significant biodiversity loss in many areas of tropical

Latin America17

Regional impacts of climate change in small Island States

By 2020o Subsistence and commercial agriculture and fisheries adversely affectedo Increase water stresso Sea-level riseo Deterioration of coastal conditions: erosion of beaches and coral bleaching

By 2050o Reduction of water resources to the point where they become insufficient to

meet demand during low-rainfall periodso In the Pacific a 10% reduction in average rainfalls is likely to correspond to

20% reduction in the size of the freshwater lens on Tarawa Atoll, Kiribatio Coral bleaching may become an annual or biannual event in the next 30 to

50 years or sooner

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Regional impacts of climate change in Central and Eastern Europe

By 2020o Risk of floods especially in northern areaso Summer river flows may decrease by up to 50% in central Europe and by

up to 80% in some rivers in southern Europeo Annual river runoff decreases in Southern Europe by 0% to 23%

(compared to 1961-1990 baseline)o Increase of snow-melt floods

By 2050o Decline of annual runoff in south-eastern Europe by up to between 20%

and 30%o Sea level rise in Baltic coasts with an increased risk of flooding and coastal

erosiono Increased risks to health due to more frequent heat waves,

flooding and greater exposure to vector and food-borne diseases19

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Turning words into actionTurning words into action

Discussion

Questions and Answers Discussion and sharing of experiences on

the climate change impacts in the country and the main causes and consequences

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Presentation of case studies

Presentation of case studies of climate change impacts (studies, video, photos ….)

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Learning process exercise: Working group

Exercise: Preparation of a quiz on climate change impacts, causes and consequences

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Recap – Key messages

Climate change is real, and is driven to a large extent by emissions of greenhouse gases linked to human activitieso Fossil energy use, deforestation and agriculture are the main

culprits

Climate change is notably characterised by rising temperatures, rising sea level, and more frequent/intense extreme weather events

Changes in climate system parameters generate a wide range of biophysical and socioeconomic impacts

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Key references

IPCC (2007b) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA

IPCC website: www.ipcc.ch UNFCC (n.d), Climate change: impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation

in developing countries Volunteer-driven information website ‘CO2 Now’: http://co2now.org/

WWF – Climate change explained: http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/

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• Thank you

• Contact: Dr. Pendo MARO, ACP Secretariat [email protected] or +32 495 281 494

www.gcca.eu/intra-acp