GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION – A TOOL FOR THE STAKEHOLDERS IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Dan B ă lteanu Institute of Geography.

GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION – STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION –

A TOOL FOR THE STAKEHOLDERS IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESSA TOOL FOR THE STAKEHOLDERS IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS

Dan BălteanuInstitute of GeographyRomanian Academy,

ROMANIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCE

Wolfram MauserLudwig-Maximilians University, Munich

February 18, 2013

Pillars of the Danube Strategy:

1.Connectivity2.Environmental protection3.Economic development4.Strengthening the governance within the Danube Region

Bridge over Danube, Apolodor din Damasc (103-105 AD),Source: Istoria Romanilor, vol II, 2001

Global Change Atlas of the Danube Basin- Past, present, future -

• Main purpose:– To reflect the current and future situation of the Danube

Basin within a global change perspective– To be a tool for decision makers from Danube countries to

respond to the challenges of a changing environment– To build a product responsive to the local, national and

regional stakeholders’ requirements and to assure visibility of the Strategy

– To clearly distinguish the threats and opportunities for the development of the Danubian community

– To identify critical areas in terms of environmental degradation, industrial decline, poverty and conflicts

Global environmental change - Climate change- Environmental risks- Land use / Land cover change- Human Dimension of global change (population, economic growth, urbanization, globalization) and human security

Regional impacts of global environmental change

- Extreme events and natural hazards- Agriculture and forestry- Water resources (water balance / river discharge / groundwater recharge / snow cover), hydropower energy and water consumption- Summer and winter tourism and cultural identity- Transport

Social and Economic Adaptation strategies

- System of indicators for adaptation (exposure and sensitivity indicators)- Regional adaptive capacity to global change- Simulation tools for integrating different (sub)models of various disciplines and their interactions- Three-dimensional approach: spatial factor, time factor and decision-making factor

Equity concerns, institutional arrangements and governance for sustainability

- Food security- (Environmental) conflicts between upstream users and downstream users- New technologies and innovation - Sustainable management of resources, infrastructure development, and development of communities- decentralized, self-organization, inclusive of non-state actors from industry and non-governmental organization to scientists, -cross-cutting research themes of global sustainability

Keywords of the Atlas

INTEGRATIVE METHODS, TECHNIQUES AND SCENARIOS FOR THE DANUBE REGION STRATEGY

• Regional assessment of present-day situation and of climate change impacts and potential adaptation strategies

• Methodological approach will be based on DANUBIA system developed for the Upper Danube Atlas– a flexible framework to couple the various submodels of different disciplines with the help of the latest software tools

• It will be based on social scenarios developed in GLOWA-Danube project – social megatrends from SinusSociovision, referring to the situation of the society as a whole and its change in the future.

• Also, there will be used methods applied in several FP6 and FP7 projects – e.g. delineating homogenous regions in terms of their endogenous adaptive potential based on cluster and factor analyses

INTEGRATIVE METHODS, TECHNIQUES AND SCENARIOS FOR THE DANUBE BASIN STRATEGY

• Inhalt• E Einleitende Beiträge• 1 Natur- und Sozialraum• 2 Simulationsmodelle der Teilmodelle• 3 Szenarien und Ergebnisse• Impressum• Glossar

Prof. W. Mauser – coordinatorUniversity of Munchen

Upper Danube Atlas

Aspects of integration in GLOWA-Danube

Upper Danube Atlas

Model of the scenario-based support system DANUBIA

SOCIOECONOMIC VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE SOCIOECONOMIC VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE - CLAVIER PROJECTCHANGE - CLAVIER PROJECT

CLAVIERCLAVIER APPROACH OF

VULNERABILITY:

Economic Vulnerability =

f (Exposure, Economic

Sensitivity, Adaptive

Capacity)

High Regional Adaptive

Capacity reduces

Regional Vulnerability

The analysis is based on

a series of exposure and exposure and

sensitivity indicatorssensitivity indicators

relevant in determining

the adaptive capacity of a

region to climate change

Source: The IPCC 3rd Assessment Report, cited by Stern, 2007

CLAVIER Economic Vulnerability Assessment complies with the IPCC approach on Vulnerability to Climate Change

ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY – ERAC ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY – ERAC METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY

-Data was analyzed using 2 statistical methods: Cluster Analysis and PCA

- 8 clusters at NUTS III level

- EUROSTAT INDICATORS & INDEXES: structural variables (e.g. sectoral employment, regional GDP, value added shares) spatial variables (accessibility, regional employment shares)

ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY – ERAC RESULTSCAPACITY – ERAC RESULTS

Scope (level of

investigation) Sectoral Level Case Study Level All regions Sector specific Case Study

Potential economic Impact

Economic Sensitivity (-) Exposure (-)

ERAC (+) Estimated Economic

Vulnerability

extent to which the

economy depends on a

certain sector

areas whose economies

are closely linked with

climate-sensitive resources

potential of responses

that go beyond

normal adaptations

= f (Economic Sensitivity,

Exposure; ERAC ) [estimated by

assuming average exposure for the

whole sample]

Pure Agricultural

Regions high (agriculture) limited high

Predominantely

Agricultural Regions

presumably high

(agriculture) limited presumably high

Rural Service

Regions

high (agriculture,

unstable population) below average average

Depopulating

Regions

low (already severe

structural problems) inferior presumably low

Industrial Regions average (industry) average average

Industrial Centres low high low

Tourist Centres high (tourism) slightly above

average high

Service Regions low

Depends on the level of

climate change and on the

system’s location whereas

according to the definition

single climate variables,

specific weather events or

long-term processes are to

be integrated into the

definition. Physical

Climate Changes and their

impact on the region have

to be analysed. Analysis

has to be undertaken on

regional level and serve as

the basis for the impact

assessment on case study

level

high low

enviroGRIDS

13 Nov 2012 – IIASA 13 Nov 2012 – IIASA

IMPACT2C Stakeholder Workshop

- Significance for Romanian Researches

Dan Bălteanu

PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS

- The Atlas is an interdisciplinary tool which will bring policy – relevant solution – oriented results in the main four pillars of EU Strategy for the Danube Region;

- The Atlas will be a dynamic digital document at NUTS 3 level based on EUROSTAT data, INSPIRE and several EU strategic and thematic directives;

- The “GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION” will provide (Spatial) Scientific Services (SSS) for a wide variety of socially and environmentally pressing issues raised by global change in the Danube Region’s countries and will support bottom-up initiatives.

- The Atlas will provide support to a broad range of stakeholders in order to ensure a balanced commitment, based on knowledge, of all the relevant priority areas of the EU Strategy.