Global Challenges and High Impact Strategies for COMEXI Mexico

Global Challenges and High Impact Strategies

COMEXI, Mexico City

Jerome C. GlennThe Millennium Project -- themp.org

ever-increasing ways to improve the human condition

The World is in a Race

Between implementing

and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scale of global problems.

Global Collective Intelligence, Artificial Intelligence, and TransInstitutions can help…

Win the Race

The World is Improving Better than Most Pessimists Know

People are becoming healthier, wealthier, better educated, more peaceful, and increasingly connected, and they are living longer. • The child mortality rate has dropped about 50% since 1990• Half the developing word in extreme poverty 1981, now 17%• 40% of humanity is connected via the Internet• Life expectancy has increased 10 years over the past 20

years to reach 70.5 years today

• The Number of International wars continue to fall, BUT

The future dangers are worse than most optimists indicate

• Advance technologies could lead to global long-term structural unemployment

• A single individual could one day make and deploy weapons of mass destruction

• Artificial general intelligence could evolve beyond our control in a destructive fashion

• Proliferation of advanced destructive weapons among hate groups could lead to continual chaos

• Long-term affects of global warming could produce massive and continual social violence

• Organized crime lead to worldwide Central America-like conditions making democracy an illusion

• Urban infrastructures may become too complex to manage, maintain, and prevent sabotage

• Uncontrollable nanotech extracting carbon from the air could cover the planet with a gray goo

• Large enough asteroid could hit the earth and cause a “nuclear winter”

• Nanotech warfare may grow beyond human control

• Doomsday scenarios of nuclear proliferation are possible

• The Earth’s magnetic poles could weaken no longer protecting life from solar radiation (500 years)

How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change?

1

How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?

2

How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?

3

How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?

4

How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?

5

How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?

6

How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?

7

How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?

8

How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change?

9

How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?

10

How can the changing status of women improve the human condition?

11

How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?

12

How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?

13

How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?

14

How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

15

How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change?

How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?

How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?

How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?

How can decisionmaking be enhanced by integrating improved global foresight during unprecedented accelerating change?How can the global convergence of

information and communications technologies work for everyone?

How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?

How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?

How can education make humanity more intelligent, knowledgeable, and wise enough to address its global challenges?

How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?

How can the changing status of women improve the human condition?

How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?

How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?

How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?

Framework for understanding Global Change: 15 Global Challenges

2015 State of the Future Index

28 Variables use in the 2015 SOFI• GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2011 int $)

• Economic income inequality (income share held by highest 10%)

• Unemployment, total (% of world labor force)

• Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (percent of population)

• CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$, billions)

• R&D Expenditures (percent of GDP)

• Population growth (annual rate)

• Life expectancy at birth (years)

• Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)

• Prevalence of undernourishment percent of population)

• Health expenditure per capita (current US$)

• Physicians (per 1,000 people)

• Improved water source (percent of population with access)

• Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)

• Biocapacity per capita

• Forest area (percent of land area)

• Fossil fuel and cement production emissions (MtC/yr)

• Energy-efficiency (GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent))

• Electricity production from renewable sources, excluding hydroelectric (percent of total)

• Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above)

• School enrollment, secondary (percent gross)

• Share of high skilled employment (percent)

• Number of wars and serious arm conflicts

• Terrorism incidents

• Freedom rights (number of countries rated “free”)

• Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (percent of members)

• Internet users (per 100 people)

World Report Card

Where are

We Winning?

1.49

66.44

59.70

21.33

463.50

1.30

79.17

5.77

1.19

79.43

56.21

13.80

12.42

76.00

319.89

33.63

9,096.68

15.80

1.21

69.04

44.20

17.64

711.01

1.45

85.63

6.69

1.98

84.27

63.72

15.70

16.49

89.00

1,358.71

21.10

11,488.75

45.73

1.13

71.51

30.04

12.44

1,246.11

1.61

90.54

7.74

6.74

86.10

75.89

18.30

22.10

90.21

1,923.62

11.92

15,039.57

90.12

1.16

73.46

20.47

8.67

1,940.45

1.76

91.71

8.56

19.39

90.84

88.78

19.40

32.89

91.00

2,075.25

7.16

20,017.10

0.78

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Internet Users (per 100 people)

Population growth (annual %)

Life expectancy at birth (years)

Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)

Prevalence of undernourishment (% population)

Health expenditure per capita (US$)

Physicians (per 1,000 people)

Improved water sources (% population with access)

Energy-Efficiency (GDP/unit of energy use)

Electricity from renewables, excl. hydro (% of total)

Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15+)

School enrollment, secondary (% gross)

Share of high skilled employment (%)

Women in national parliaments (% of members)

Freedom (number of countries rated free)

Foreign direct investment, net inflows (US$, billions)

Poverty ($1.25/day, PPP) (%)

GNI per capita (PPP, 2011 international $)

1995 2005 2015 2025

Where are We Losing?

World Report Card

2.83

44.00

2.02

2.00

31.76

7,658

6,398

6.09

2.89

46.00

2.02

1.80

31.24

6,791

8,093

6.13

2.91

51.37

31.00

11,792

2.00

1.68

30.84

5,859

10,484

6.08

2.96

48.00

34.78

30,367

2.01

1.61

30.61

4,982

15,257

6.20

3,079 2,010

31.22

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Corruption in the public sector (1=low; 6=high)

Number of wars and serious arm conflicts (25+ deaths)

Income inequality (share of top 10%)

Terrorism incidents

R&D expenditures (% of GDP)

Biocapacity per capita (gha)

Forest area (% of land area)

Renewable internal freshwater resources (m3/capita)

Fossil fuel and cement production emissions (MtC/yr)

Unemployment (% of world labor force)

1995 2005 2015 2025

High Impact/Synergetic Actions affecting4 or more Global Challenges

1. Establish a U.S.-China environmental security goal to reduce climate change to 350 ppm and improve trust. (1,2,3,5,10,13,14)

2. Grow meat without growing animals, to reduce water demand and GHG emissions. (1,2,3,13,15)

3. Develop seawater agriculture for biofuels, carbon sink, and food without rain. (1,2,3,13,)

4. Build global collective intelligence systems for input to long-range plans. (1-15)

5. Create tele-nations connecting brains overseas to the development process back home. (4,6,7,8,9,11,14)

6. Establish trans-institutions for more effective implementation of strategies. (1-15)

7. Detail and implement a global counter-organized crime strategy. (4,7,11,12,15)

8. Use the State of the Future Index as an alternative to GDP as a measure of progress for the world and nations. (1-15)

Increasingly Significant Technologies

• Synthetic Biology• Artificial Intelligence• Computational Science• Pure meat, leather,

without animals & augmenting medicine

• Tele-Everything & Tele-Everybody, the Semantic Web

• Augmented Reality, Tele-Presence, Holographic Communications

• Quantum computing• Increasing individual and

collective intelligence • 3-D Printing biology as

well as materials and 4-D Printing

• Nanotechnology• Robotic manufacturing• Drones • Conscious-Technology

Civilization potentials

Smart Phone Integration/Synergies

Future Technology Synergies

Artificial Intelligence Robotic

manufacturing

Computational Science

3-D4-D Priting

Nanotechnology

Quantum computing

Synthetic Biology

Drones

Artificial General Intelligence

Tele-Everything & Tele-Everybodythe Semantic Web

Future Technology Synergies

Robotic manufacturing

Drones

Quantum computing

Robotic manufacturing

3D， 4D Printing

Augmented RealityTele-Presence, Holographics

Nanotechnology

Artificial General Intelligence

Tele-EverythingTele-Everybodythe Semantic Web

Increasing individual and collective intelligence

Synthetic Biology

Nanotechnology

Future Technology Synergies

Artificial Intelligence

Robotic manufacturing

Quantum computing

Drones

Future Technology

Robotic manufacturing

3D， 4D Printing

Augmented Reality,Tele-Presence, Holographics

When this begins to happen, the speed of increasing AI’s intelligence

will be far fasterand produce more change than Moore’s Law

by responding to feedback from sensor networks worldwide,

will accelerate AI’s intelligence worldwide… moment by moment

Artificial Intelligence … that can autonomously “write” and improve its code…

If \ Then Nano-technology

Synthetic Biology

Artificial Intelligence

Robotics 3-D Printing Augmented Reality

Nano-technology xxx        Synthetic Biology xxx        Artificial Intelligence     xxx      Robotics

      xxx    3-D Printing

        xxx  Augmented Reality           xxx

Emerging Technologies Table

Will synergies among AI, robotics, nanotech, synthetic biology, and quantum computing create more jobs than they eliminate?

If not, then long-term structural unemployment is inevitable, unless we create new concepts of work and possibly guaranteed income for all.

New concepts of work and economics needed

• Capitalism/Socialism/Communism – early industrial age systems

• Next system too complex to understand today – but some seeds can be; 32 seeds identified and assessed by the Millennium Project

• Non-ownership - Means of Production available to all, as distinct from private ownership or collective/state ownership (e.g. The Internet and open source software)

• Decentralized Autonomous Organization peer to peer “work for software” but NO central – human managed or owned corporation (like the internet, but just one piece of AI software is the “company.”

• One-Person Business - Self-employment via the Internet—individuals seek markets for their abilities rather than jobs

Collective Intelligence Systems: Each Can Change the Other

Global Futures Intelligence System https://themp.org

… May become a TransInstitution

UNOrganizations

NGOsand

Foundations

Universities

GovernmentsCorporations

The Millennium Project

56 Millennium Project Nodes...

Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:

The Millennium Project General Accomplishments

• System for people to think together about the future- 56 Nodes connecting global and local perspectives- Real-Time Delphi for rapid assessment and feedback

• Framework to understand and track global change- State of the Future reports that annually updates 15 Global Challenges

• Educational contributions- Over 200 Interns trained from over 30 countries- Est. 1,000 universities use MP materials- Millennium Awards involving thousands of students around the world

• Inclusive and Participatory System to Measure Change- State of the Future Index – Global and National Indexes

• Largest collection of methods to explore the future- 37 Methods, 39 Chapters, 1,300 pages, internationally peer reviewed

• Collective Intelligence System- Bringing it all together in one online platform … GFIS

For further information:

[email protected]

202-686-5179

StateoftheFuture.org

themp.orgGlobal Futures Intelligence System

Over a 1000 terms in both Spanish and English

For further information

Jerome C. GlennThe Millennium Project

4421 Garrison Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016 USA+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax

[email protected]

www.StateoftheFuture.orgwww.themp.org (Global Futures Intelligence System)