WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Global Challenges - Partnering with Service Providers http://www.wmo.int/pages/gfcs/gfcs_en.html WMO J. Lengoasa WMO Deputy Secretary-General [email protected]
WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water
Global Challenges - Partnering with Service Providers
http://www.wmo.int/pages/gfcs/gfcs_en.html
WMO
J. Lengoasa
WMO Deputy Secretary-General [email protected]
WMO Climate Investment Funds
Resilience: New Tools for Managing the Unavoidable • Need for variety of investments in climate resilience
• More resilient economies which can:
– absorb weather-related shocks
– adapt better to longer-term changes in temperature and rainfall patterns
more easily
– bounce back sooner.
Key focus of cities and coastal areas
WMO
Disaster Risk Management
WEF, 2011
WMO Building Resilience
• WEF, 2011 (adapted)
Early Warning
WMO
5
Economic losses related to disasters are increasing…
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
4 11 1424
47
88
160
345
103
495
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05
Geological
Hydrometeorological
Billions of USD per decade
decade
0.05
2.66
0.17
1.73
0.39
0.65
0.22 0.25
0.67
0.22
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05
Geological
Hydrometeorological
Millions of casualties per decade
decade
… but we are saving lives
WMO
The previous two decades recorded highest number of National 24hour Precipitation Record
Highest number of broken National Maximum Temp Records in 2001-2010 compared to the previous three decades
Lowest number of broken National Minimum Temp Records in 2001-2010 compared to the previous three decades
(Source: WMO country data).
More hot days and more heat waves
Less cool nights
Intensification of heavy rainfall
Our Changing Climate
WMO Global Temperature Trends
Temperature anomaly by decade over six geographical regions: Africa, Asia, Europe, North America and Oceania. Countries with no data provided are blank. The anomalies are computed with respect to 1961-1990 period (WMO country data)
WMO
Decadal precipitation anomalies for global land areas for the 2001-2010 decade
Decadal precipitation anomalies for global land areas for 2001-
2010; gridded 1.0-degree raingauge-based analysis as
normalized departures in mm/year focussing on 1951-2000 base period. (Source:
Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, Deutscher
Wetterdienst, Germany)
WMO
Annual precipitation anomalies for global land areas for 2010
Annual precipitation anomalies for global land areas for 2010; gridded 1.0-degree raingauge-
based analysis as percentage of normals
focussing on 1951-2000 base period. (Source: Global Precipitation Climatology Centre,
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany) 2
3
4
5
Major floods in Many regions
WMO Record low sea ice extent
2007
2012
Long Term Average
WMO
11
Climate Prediction Framework
WMO
• From mitigation to mitigation and adaptation
• From few to many customers/users/stakeholders
• Global century scenarios to regional predictions, days to decades
ahead
• Climate change to climate change and climate variability
• Broad climate to characteristics of weather; including extremes
and impacts
• Operational delivery – regularly updated monitoring, forecasts,
products & services
Climate Services: A Revolution in the Application of Climate Science
WMO
13
A global integrated approach
WMO The ‘pillars’ of the GFCS
WMO
16
User Interface Platform
WMO
Climate Services Information System
WMO
Research, modelling and prediction
• Regional climate information
• Regional sea-level rise
• Cryosphere
• Atmosphere and climate
• Changes in water availability
• Prediction and attribution of extreme events
• Climate and socio-economic factors
WMO
Observations and information systems
The WMO Integrated Global Observing System integrates data collection and exchange for improved weather forecasts and climate services.
WMO Capacity development
• Strengthening of institutional and technical infrastructure
• Human resources development & renewal
• Continuing education and training • Special needs of LDCs • Gender issues
WMO Implementation and partnerships
The GFCS Will build on the experiences
of National Meteorological Services Will support climate research
in NMSs – especially in the developing world All the WMO’s constituent
bodies are expected to play important roles United Nations and other will
be important partners
WMO
Climate Services: Unlocking the potential
• Increasingly complex science, modelling and prediction systems
• Increasingly complex user requirements, requiring multi-disciplinary and multi-scale approaches
• Partnerships in science and delivery are essential • Dialogue with end users is vital
WMO Climate Information Value Chain
Source: PPCR, World Bank (2012)
WMO
© Crown copyright Met Office
10 model multi-model ensemble-mean prediction
Dealing with climate vulnerability now February 2009 forecast for Horn of Africa
March-April-May ‘long’ rains
category probabilities: drought twice
as likely as flood
Regional Climate Outlook Forum consensus
Observed rainfall Anomalies (mm)
Reuters May 12, 2009: Somalia’s worst drought in a decade is pushing growing numbers of children into near-famine conditions and deepening the humanitarian crisis caused by political violence, the United Nations warned …
Estimated food security condition, April-June 2009
WMO
© Crown copyright Met Office
• Seasonal forecasts of La Nina from August 2010
• Ensemble mean rainfall anomalies (mm/day) for Nov – Jan from October 2010.
NB: 2.5 mm/day = 230mm accumulated
Queensland flooding: A predictable event?
WMO
Transition to a low-carbon global economy
WBGU, 2009
WMO
Implementation Partnerships
WMO WMO
Thank you